Tag: Venice Film Festival

mother! Box Office Prediction

Darren Aronofsky’s mother! received quite the splashy debut at the Venice Film Festival over the weekend and stateside audiences will render their verdict on September 15th. Oscar winners Jennifer Lawrence and Javier Bardem headline the psychological horror thriller with a supporting cast including Ed Harris, Michelle Pfeiffer, Kristin Wiig, and Domhnall Gleeson.

Critical reaction from mother! has been something to witness, with some reviews labeling it a masterwork from the Requiem for a Dream and Black Swan auteur. Other notices haven’t gone that far, but all seem to agree it will push the audience’s buttons with its out there approach. The pic stands at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes currently.

Here are the pluses as I see them when it comes to potential box office performance. First, it’s headlined by Jennifer Lawrence and that should be a draw for some. Second, the buzz surrounding it could create a “you have to witness this thing” for yourself type of vibe.

One minus is a considerable one. The It factor. The Stephen King adaptation is riding its own higher decibel wave of chatter and should still be garnering big grosses in its sophomore weekend. It could easily divert some moviegoers away from this.

I’ll predict mother! begins with a low to mid teens output and it’ll be fascinating to see how it progresses or regresses from there (its Cinemascore rating could be an interesting indicator).

mother! opening weekend prediction: $14.7 million

For my American Assassin prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/06/american-assassin-box-office-prediction/

Todd’s Early 2017 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

And here we are! After my first round of predictions covering the acting categories and Best Director, we arrive at Best Picture. The Telluride and Venice Film Festivals have shed light on some potentials heavyweights (Darkest Hour,  Battle of the Sexes, The Shape of Water, MAYBE Downsizing) while others (Suburbicon, Victoria and Abdul, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool) have mostly fallen by the wayside. Obviously there’s many pictures left to screen, but here’s my first blush round of Best Picture nominees.

As you may know, the number of nominated movies can be anywhere from 5-10, but nine has seemed to be the magic number in most years so we’ll go with that. On Thursday, I’ll post my first weekly column where potential nominees in Picture, Director, all four acting races, and both screenplay categories are ranked as to possibility of nomination in this blogger’s mind.

Here goes –

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST PICTURE

Battle of the Sexes

Call My by Your Name

Darkest Hour

Downsizing

Dunkirk

The Greatest Showman

Mudbound

The Post

The Shape of Water

Other Possibilities:

The Big Sick

Blade Runner 2049

Coco

Detroit

Get Out

Goodbye Christopher Robin

Lady Bird

Last Flag Flying

mother!

Phantom Thread

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Wind River

Wonderstruck

Wonder Wheel

Wonder Woman

Oscar Watch: mother!

One of the more eagerly awaited titles has screened at the Venice Film Festival as Darren Aronofsky’s mother! has seen its first reactions. The psychological horror pic debuts stateside next weekend and early word-of-mouth indicates it’s quite a head trip.

One could see from the effective trailers that mother! looks bizarre and pretty out there. It’s a tale of a couple (Jennifer Lawrence and Javier Bardem) whose remote home is visited by various strangers, including Ed Harris and Michelle Pfeiffer. The Venice reaction was reportedly all over the map – a mix of wild cheering and boos. This could indicate how audiences may feel about it. mother! is said to be in the vein of the director’s earlier Black Swan (which received multiple nominations and a Best Actress win for Natalie Portman) and Rosemary’s Baby. 

While mother! currently stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, its apparent divisiveness could stand as a hindrance for a Best Picture or Director nomination. That said, it could also benefit from some voters ranking it as their #1 or #2 picture on the ballot.

As for the performers, Jennifer Lawrence would be gunning for her fifth nomination. She won in 2012 for Silver Linings Playbook, got lead nominations for Winter’s Bone (2010) and Joy (2015), and was nominated for Supporting Actress for American Hustle (2013). It’s been discussed a lot on this blog recently, but the Actress category is looking very strong right now and her inclusion could be a long shot. The best chance at recognition could belong to Michelle Pfeiffer, a three-time nominees whose last nod came 25 years ago. It should depend on the strength of that category, which is yet undetermined.

Bottom line: mother! has rather unsurprisingly garnered acclaim, but how it plays with audiences remains to be seen. We shall know soon enough and that may be a determining factor as to its Oscar viability.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Another day, another entry in the Best Actress derby as Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has premiered at the Venice Film Festival. This time it’s Frances McDormand, starring in Martin McDonagh’s pic about a mother going to great lengths to find her daughter’s killers.

Early reviews suggest a strong and nuanced performance from McDormand, who won Best Actress 21 years ago for Fargo. She’s also been nominated three other times in Supporting for 1988’s Mississippi Burning, 2000’s Almost Famous, and 2005’s North Country. While Missouri could feasibly nab McDormand her fifth nod, it’s no slam dunk and that’s due to competition that has been discussed on the blog all weekend.

An interesting nugget from the Venice buzz surrounds Sam Rockwell, whose performance seems to be generating more word-of-mouth than Woody Harrelson’s in Supporting Actor. If Rockwell manages to land a nomination, it would be his first and looked at as long overdue by many.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Victoria and Abdul

Victoria & Abdul has screened at the Venice Film Festival and the late 19th century period piece has been looked at as potentially scoring Judi Dench her eighth Oscar nomination. Why? Well, pretty simple: 1) it’s Judi Dench; 2) it casts her once again as Queen Victoria, whom she played in 1997’s Mrs. Brown where she landed her first nod; 3) it reunites her with her Philomena director Stephen Frears where she received her seventh nomination; and 4) it’s Judi Dench, people.

Predictably, the Dame has garnered solid notices for her return to the role two decades later. That said, competition is becoming fierce in the Actress race. Both the Venice and Telluride Festivals have showcased potential nominees such as Emma Stone in Battle of the Sexes, Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water, Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird, and Annette Bening in Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool. That’s in addition to some performances with promise like Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Jennifer Lawrence in Mother!, as well as pics to be screened later showcasing Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game) and Meryl Streep (The Post).

There’s only five nominations to go around and Dench could find herself on the outside looking in. It’s also highly unlikely costar Ali Fazal or the Picture or Director will find themselves in contention.

Bottom line: it’s Judi Dench (once again), so there’s a chance but competition could provide some difficulties for nod #8.

Oscar Watch: Suburbicon

George Clooney’s directorial career has one Oscar bright spot in the form of 2005’s Good Night, and Good Luck which received six nominations, including Picture and Director. His other work behind the camera (2002’s Confessions of a Dangerous Mind, 2008’s Leatherheads, 2011’s The Ides of March, 2014’s The Monuments Men) haven’t fared as well on the awards circuit. With its Venice Film Festival, Clooney’s latest Suburbicon is looking like it will belong in the latter category.

The 1950s set crime comedy was penned by acclaimed directors Joel and Ethan Coen and early critical reaction indicates it has the feel of one of their efforts. However, reviews thus far are mixed with a current 60% Rotten Tomatoes score. Matt Damon, Julianne Moore, and Oscar Isaac are among the cast. Mr. Damon could have more of a good night and good luck come Oscar time with Downsizing, but I don’t look for Suburbicon to receive much attention come nominations time (perhaps some Golden Globe in the Comedy categories could surface).

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Darkest Hour

My recent Oscar Watch posts have largely focused on the Venice Film Festival (and there’s more posts from that fest coming your way shortly), but the Telluride Film Festival is also underway and it premiered Joe Wright’s eagerly awaited Darkest Hour. 

The film casts Gary Oldman as British Prime Minister Winston Churchill during WWII and the actor has been considered a Best Actor front runner for some time already. The Telluride screening all but confirms that notion with Oldman drawing raves for his performance. Crazily enough, with the lead’s three decade long sterling career, he’s only managed one Academy nod for 2011’s Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. It’s safe to say that this will land him his second as Variety deemed him the instant favorite.

While Oldman’s nomination has always seemed likely, initial reaction also puts Darkest in line for potential Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay (Anthony McCarten) nods and some down the line technical categories. Interestingly, it’s Ben Mendelsohn’s supporting work that’s garnered notice and not Kristin Scott Thomas, who now seems a bit of a long shot for Supporting Actress.

Bottom line: Darkest reaction sheds light on several potential nominations, but Oldman’s seems assured.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

 

Oscar Watch: The Shape of Water

On day 2, the Venice Film Festival continues to showcase potential Oscar bait and today’s story belongs to Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water. Deemed a dark fantasy with lots of heart, Water has debuted to rave reviews with critics calling it the filmmaker’s best work since 2006’s Pan’s Labyrinth. That film received nominations for Best Foreign Language Film and Original Screenplay.

The Fox Searchlight production isn’t out stateside until December 8, but the overseas buzz already makes it a contender in several Academy races. The pic’s cast includes familiar faces, such as Michael Shannon, Richard Jenkins, Doug Jones, Michael Stuhlbarg, and Octavia Spencer. Yet it’s lead Sally Hawkins, whose performance as a mute janitor who befriends a strange creature, who is being singled out. She stands a fine shot at recognition in lead Actress and it would mark her second nomination (the first was for Supporting Actress for 2013’s Blue Jasmine).

If Water manages to keep momentum generated from Venice through the year’s end, it’s entirely feasible that Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay (del Toro and Vanessa Taylor) could be in the mix as well.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

 

Oscar Watch: Downsizing

Blogger’s Update (09/19/17) – What Venice giveth, Toronto and Telluride taketh away. Since my original writing of this post on 08/30, Oscar prospects for Downsizing have dimmed due to mixed reaction from the aforementioned festivals.

A major piece of the 2017 Oscar puzzle has come into focus today with the debut of Alexander Payne’s Downsizing at the Venice Film Festival. This picture has been circled on the calendar of Academy Awards prognosticators since it was announced. Why? For starters, this is Payne’s seventh directorial feature and his previous five efforts have all received Oscar attention. For 1999’s Election, Payne received a nod for Adapted Screenplay. 2002’s About Schmidt landed two nominations in the acting races for Jack Nicholson and Kathy Bates. 2004’s Sideways nabbed five nominations, including Picture, Director, and a win for Payne and writing partner Jim Taylor for Adapted Screenplay. 2011’s The Descendants also received five nominations, with Payne winning once again for Adapted Screenplay. His last film, 2013’s Nebraska, garnered six nominations including Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. His last five movies have resulted in a total of seven acting nods.

So yeah… pretty much anything Payne puts out is an automatic Oscar contender. That does not look to end with Downsizing, his science fiction comedic drama that has drawn rave reviews out of the gate. It’s not out until December 22, but trade reviews are up and they’re glowing with praise. The Hollywood Reporter: “Big and beautiful” and arguably his best film. Variety: “playful, spectacular, mischievous, and audacious”. Interestingly, both reviews reference it as like as a live-action Pixar feature.

Downsizing has a highly recognizable cast that includes Matt Damon, Kristin Wiig, Christoph Waltz, Alec Baldwin, Neil Patrick Harris, Laura Dern, and Jason Sudeikis. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Damon in the mix for Best Actor, based on early word. Yet it’s a name you probably haven’t heard that you’ll soon become familiar with. Playing a Vietnamese refugee, Hong Chau has been singled out for her work and I’d venture to say she will be receiving a Supporting Actress nomination here.

Before today, Dunkirk was the only picture that I feel confident saying will receive a Best Picture nomination. Downsizing is now the second and it will probably land Payne directing and original screenplay (along with Jim Taylor) recognition. Beyond that – Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, and even Visual Effects categories are all feasible.

Bottom line: Downsizing just announced itself as a potential force this awards season. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Arrival Box Office Prediction

Denis Villeneueve’s science fiction drama and potential Oscar contender Arrival lands in theaters next weekend, looking for a healthy run throughout the awards season. Amy Adams headlines a cast that includes Jeremy Renner, Forest Whitaker, and Michael Stuhlbarg. Villeneueve has been on a roll (especially critically) in recent years with well-regarded titles such as Prisoners and last year’s Sicario.

With a relatively modest $50 million reported budget, Arrival debuted at the Venice Film Festival to many raves and it currently stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. It could find itself in the mix at the Academy Awards for Best Picture, Director, and Actress with Ms. Adams.

What could hinder Arrival from a huge debut is a relative lack of star power. While Adams and Renner are certainly recognizable names, they don’t carry the box office potency of Sandra Bullock and George Clooney in Gravity ($55 million opening  in 2013), Matthew McConaughey and director Christopher Nolan in Interstellar ($47 million in 2014), and Matt Damon and director Ridley Scott in The Martian ($54 million last autumn). Those similar genre pics premiered in a realm that looks to be unrealistic for this.

Arrival could manage to top $30 million out of the gate, but a relatively low screen count of 2200 screens should prevent that. I’ll say a low to mid 20s debut is more probable as it looks to play well in subsequent weekends based on buzz.

Arrival opening weekend prediction: $22.4 million

For my Almost Christmas prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/almost-christmas-box-office-prediction/

For my Shut In prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/02/shut-in-box-office-prediction/