The Jigsaw Files: Saw (2004)

Perhaps I’m feeling like a glutton for punishment, but the upcoming release of Spiral: From the Book of Saw got me in a bloody nostalgic mood as we anticipate its premiere. Nearly 17 years after the low-budget original became one of the most profitable horror pics ever and spawned now eight sequels/reboots, I felt it was time to revisit the franchise.

Hence The Jigsaw Files where I will recap the series movie by movie. It naturally begins with the original Saw. Shot for a reported teensy budget of $1.2 million, it came out of nowhere in October 2004 to become a genre classic. So is it?

This marks the directorial debut of James Wan and he went on to be involved in numerous franchises. Some were of his own making (Insidious, The Conjuring). Others brought on his talents like in Furious 7 and Aquaman. Wan came up with the story along with Leigh Whannell, who has since helmed Upgrade and The Invisible Man (both critically acclaimed scare fests).

Most of you are familiar with the story. Whannell costars as Adam, a photographer who awakens in a dingy and feces covered washroom with Dr. Lawrence Gordon (Cary Elwes). The duo soon discover that they are part of an elaborate game orchestrated by a serial killer who concocts these elaborate schemes. They have to figure out why they have been placed in such a foul setting and they only have hours to do so before their time expires.

The screenplay intersects their countdown with Detectives Tapp (Danny Glover) and Sing (Ken Leung) trying to figure out who this monster is. Saw is told in a non-linear fashion that isn’t totally clear until the climax. I had forgotten about the Lost TV series connection until my rewatch. Leung was the quirky medium Miles. Michael Emerson, who is involved in the mayhem happening here, is an Emmy winner for his brilliant portrayal of Ben Linus.

What’s striking about Saw upon another visit is that its meager budget limits some of the gore we became accustomed to in the sequels. Don’t get me wrong… it’s there, but not quite as prevalent. Elwes and Whannell get the most screen time (Glover apparently only shot for two days). Both actors have their moments of extreme overacting and I’m pretty sure that’s on purpose. Some may find this exercise humorless, but there’s some winking and nodding occurring in my estimation.

The other plot point that audiences might forget is that Tobin Bell’s Jigsaw (who becomes this franchise’s Freddy, Jason, Michael… take your pick) plays a minimal role… kind of like Jason in the first Friday the 13th. This is, of course, until the surprise ending. And that ending is still one of the better twists in modern horror history. If you’re a stickler about it making sense… well, you might hurt your head deciding if it holds up to scrutiny. Yet it was effective when I first watched it and it still is today.

Saw is certainly not perfect. Its price tag limitations show, but even that adds to the B movie vibe. Wan shows right away why he’s become the in demand filmmaker he is now. And this Saw remains a cut above most of what followed and rightfully has the reputation that precedes it.

The Jigsaw Files will continue with Saw II (2005)…

The Invisible Man Box Office Prediction

Horror pics have faced a tough road so far in 2020 as The Grudge, The Turning, Gretel & Hansel, and Fantasy Island have all posted lackluster debuts. This weekend, I don’t see the trend stopping with Brahms: The Boy II. do see it changing next Friday with The Invisible Man. From director Leigh Whannell (who recently made Insidious: Chapter 3 and Upgrade), this is an update of the H.G. Wells novel that was turned into a classic 1933 James Whale tale. Elisabeth Moss (who co-starred in last year’s Us) headlines a cast that includes Oliver Jackson-Cohen, Aldis Hodge, Storm Reid, and Harriet Dyer.

This project was originally intended as a vehicle for Johnny Depp as part of Universal’s plans for a franchise that began with 2017’s The Mummy. When that pic brought in less than expected returns, the monster series was scrapped. The Invisible Man has undergone a significant transformation with Blumhouse co-producing. Per usual with that production company, the budget is tiny (a reported $7 million).

Early word-of-mouth is strong with screening members reporting a tense and effective crowd pleaser. Whannell appears to be a filmmaker on the upswing and Moss certainly has her fans from The Handmaid’s Tale and more.

I believe Invisible will be quite visible on the radar screens of genre moviegoers and break the streak of scary disappointments over the past few weeks. A gross of over $30 million might be the result.

The Invisible Man opening weekend prediction: $33.8 million

Box Office Predictions: June 8-10

A trio of new titles open wide at the box office this weekend as the unremarkable two-week reign of Solo: A Star Wars Story looks to close. They are the reboot of heist caper franchise Ocean’s 8 with Sandra Bullock and other notable actresses, critically acclaimed horror pic Hereditary, and crime thriller Hotel Artemis. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/30/oceans-8-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/30/hereditary-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/30/hotel-artemis-box-office-prediction/

My low 40s opening for Ocean’s 8 easily puts it in the #1 spot. That estimate gives it the largest debut for the franchise that’s been dormant for over a decade when George Clooney, Matt Damon, Brad Pitt, and others had their trilogy.

The biggest question mark of the weekend to me is undoubtedly Hereditary. Reviews have been terrific, but critical praise doesn’t always equate to major dollars for this genre. Two similarly heralded entries from the same studio – The Witch and It Comes at Night – made less than $10 million out of the gate. Hereditary could potentially suffer the same fate, but I’ve got it pegged to manage low double digits. If the pic over performs, it could nab the #2 spot. If it hits in the range I’m projecting, it would be fourth behind Solo and Deadpool 2. 

Adrift premiered right in line with my expectations and it may find itself in a close race with Avengers: Infinity War for the fifth slot. I’m giving the superheroes an edge.

As for Hotel Artemis, I’m not expecting much and my forecast has gone from $7.7 million to now $5 million over the course of the last week. That number puts it outside the top five.

And with that, my top 6 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Ocean’s 8

Predicted Gross: $42.6 million

2. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

3. Deadpool 2

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Hereditary

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

5. Avengers: Infinity War

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

6. Adrift

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

Box Office Results (June 1-3) 

All eyes were on how Solo: A Star Wars Story would perform in its second weekend after a majorly lackluster premiere. The verdict? Not good. The Star Wars stand-alone fell a precipitous 65% to $29.3 million, well behind my $37.3 million estimate. The two-week tally stands at $148 million.

Deadpool 2 was second with $23.1 million in weekend #3, topping my $20.9 million projection for $254 million total.

Newcomer Adrift was right in line with my take – placing third at $11.6 million (I said $11.7 million).

Avengers: Infinity War was fourth with $10.5 million, ahead of my $8.6 million projection for $643 million in its considerable coffers.

Book Club rounded out the top five and I didn’t have it in there. It earned $7 million and sits at $47 million overall.

Blumhouse’s Upgrade exceeded my prediction with $4.6 million. I was lower at $2.8 million. The well reviewed sci-fi horror flick’s number is pretty decent considering its meager budget and low 1400 plus theater count.

Last and indeed least, Johnny Knoxville’s Action Point was a complete dud coming in at 9th place with a measly $2.3 million (well below my $6.6 million guesstimate). I wrote about its failure yesterday here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/02/the-fade-of-a-jackass/

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 1-3

The post Memorial Day weekend gives us a trio of vowel led titles as romantic disaster drama Adrift with Shailene Woodley, Johnny Knoxville comedy Action Point, and Blumhouse horror pic Upgrade all debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/24/adrift-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/23/action-point-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/24/upgrade-box-office-prediction/

I don’t expect any of the newbies to exactly set the box office ablaze, but have Adrift getting over Action Point (if for nothing else than the higher theater count). My meager $2.8 estimate for Upgrade leaves it far outside the top 5.

The top two (and perhaps 3) should remain unchanged, but the real story of the weekend may be how far Solo: A Star Wars Story drops. It shouldn’t have trouble remaining #1, but as discussed in my post from last night, it came in considerably below expectations:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/28/solo-a-star-wars-letdown/

Press chatter since the undeniably disappointing premiere of Solo has solely focused on just that and it could cause the film to take a hefty dip in its sophomore frame. In addition, tent pole features opening over the Memorial weekend typically experience large declines anyway. Last year’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales fell 64%. I believe a better comp might be Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull from 10 years ago. It made $100 million over the three-day portion of the holiday weekend and dipped 55% in weekend #2. That seems more feasible for Solo, however if it fell over 60% it wouldn’t exactly be shocking.

Deadpool 2 should remain in second place while Avengers: Infinity War could find itself locked in battle for third with Adrift or possibly Action Point. I’m giving Adrift an edge.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the beginning of June:

1. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $37.3 million

2. Deadpool 2

Predicted Gross: $20.9 million

3. Adrift

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million

4. Avengers: Infinity War

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. Action Point

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

Box Office Results (May 25-28)

As discussed already, Solo: A Star Wars Story came in far below expectations with $103 million over the four-day weekend. That’s, ahem, a bit under my forecast of $151.3 million. Just days ago, the stand-alone Star Wars entry was a strong candidate to break the previous $139 million Memorial Day record held by Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End. It ended up as only the 7th highest holiday haul.

Deadpool 2 dropped to second with $53.8 million, in line with my $55.2 million prediction for a two-week total of $218 million.

Avengers: Infinity War was third at $22.4 million (I was right there at $22.5 million) for $627 million overall.

Book Club was fourth with $13.1 million in its second weekend, topping my $11.7 million projection for $35 million total. The comedy is scoring with a female and older audience and turning into a nice midsize summer performer.

Life of the Party rounded out the top five with $6.8 million, topping my $5.3 million prediction. It’s made $40 million total.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Upgrade Box Office Prediction

Blumhouse Productions is out with its latest low-budget flick that hopes to generate high dollar figures when Upgrade debuts next weekend. The sci-fi horror revenge pic comes from director Leigh Whannell, best known for his involvement in the Insidious franchise (including directing its third chapter). Logan Marshall-Green, Betty Gabriel (best known as the creepy housekeeper in Get Out), and Harrison Gilbertson are among the cast. Early reviews have been decent as it currently stands at 73% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Upgrade is slated to open on a rather low 1400 screens and that will limit its potential. I would not anticipate this coming anywhere near the massive successes that Jason Blum and his studio have achieved with titles like the aforementioned Get Out, Split, or Happy Death Day. Instead it appears destined to premiere similar to BH Tilt’s lesser offerings like The Belko Experiment, The Green Inferno, or Incarnate – none of which managed to clear $5 million for their starts.

Upgrade opening weekend prediction: $2.8 million

For my Action Point prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/23/action-point-box-office-prediction/

For my Adrift prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/24/adrift-box-office-prediction/