Box Office Predictions: July 6-8

The first full weekend of July kicks off with the release of a sequel and a prequel: Marvel’s AntMan and the Wasp and Blumhouse’s The First Purge. You can peruse my detailed predictions on both of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/26/ant-man-and-the-wasp-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/27/the-first-purge-box-office-prediction/

The return of Paul Rudd and Evangeline Lilly in the MCU’s 20th offering should easily dominate the charts. I have AntMan achieving the MCU’s 14th largest haul with a mid 80s premiere.

As for The First Purge, the prequel and fourth series entry in six summers debuts on Wednesday. This has been a sturdy franchise and each subsequent feature has actually managed to out gross the previous one. I foresee a low to mid 20s three-day traditional weekend gross and low 30s for the five-day total. That forecast places the fourth Purge in fourth.

That could be a battle for the two spot as I see Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2 experiencing similar earnings in their third and fourth weekends, respectively.

And in keeping with the all sequels/prequels theme, Sicario: Day of the Soldado should round out the top five. Here are my projections for the high-five:

1. AntMan and the Wasp

Predicted Gross: $86.4 million

2. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $28.2 million

3. Incredibles 2 

Predicted Gross: $27.8 million

4. The First Purge

Predicted Gross: $22.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $31.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

5. Sicario: Day of the Soldado

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

Box Office Results (June 29-July 1)

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom had no trouble ruling the box office for a second weekend with $60.9 million in receipts (in line with my $62.1 million estimate). The dino sequel’s ten-day tally stands at $265 million.

Incredibles 2 continued its remarkable run in second with $46.4 million (I was lower at $42.8 million) for $440 million overall. The Pixar sequel is already the 2nd highest grossing picture from the studio and it should shortly surpass the $486 million earned by Finding Dory to become #1.

The good news for sequels kept on coming as Sicario: Day of the Soldado performed on the very high-end of expectations with $19 million, well exceeding my $13.8 million prediction.

Basketball comedy Uncle Drew opened in fourth with $15.2 million, just below my $16.4 million estimate. This debut was pretty much right in line with its tracking.

Ocean’s 8 rounded out the top five and continued its meager decline from week to week. It grossed $8.3 million (topping my $7 million projection) for $115 million total.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 29-July 1

The basketball themed comedy Uncle Drew and crime thriller sequel Sicario: Day of the Soldado debut in theaters this weekend and they could battle it out for the third spot behind returning blockbusters Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the two newbies right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/19/uncle-drew-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/19/sicario-day-of-the-soldado-box-office-prediction/

Of the two newcomers, I am giving Drew the slight edge over Sicario. I also believe that if one of them over performs my estimate, it will be the former. My low to mid teens projections on both means Jurassic and Incredibles should easily maintain their 1-2 slots on the charts.

Kingdom came in on the higher end of expectations this weekend (more on that below) and now we move to how far it will drop. Its predecessor dipped just 49% in its sophomore frame after its (at the time) record-breaking $208 million opening. Kingdom should fall farther and I foresee a mid-high 50s decline.

The percentage drop for Incredibles 2 was more pronounced than I projected in weekend #2 and that should subside a bit this weekend (I’ll say 46%).

The women of Ocean’s 8 should round out the top five. And with that, those 5 estimates for the frame ahead:

1. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $62.1 million

2. Incredibles 2

Predicted Gross: $42.8 million

3. Uncle Drew

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

4. Sicario: Day of the Soldado

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

5. Ocean’s 8

Predicted Gross: $7 million

Box Office Results (June 22-24)

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom easily ruled the box office grossing $148 million out of the gate. I was a bit lower at $140.4 million. The dino sequel, as mentioned, performed on the higher end of expectations while earning $60 million less for its start than Jurassic World in 2015. Its debut gives it the fourth largest in 2018 behind Avengers: Infinity War, Black Panther, and Incredibles 2.

Speaking of Incredibles 2, it fell to second with $80.3 million and didn’t reach my forecast of $94.9 million. Its two-week total sits at an incredible $349 million.

Ocean’s 8 held up nicely in third with $11.5 million to bring its tally to a cool $100 million. I was a tad lower at $9.8 million.

Tag was fourth with $8.2 million (I said $7.7 million) for $30 million in two weeks.

Deadpool 2 took the five-spot with $5.2 million (I said $4.9 million) to hit the triple century mark at $304 million.

Solo: A Star Wars Story was sixth at $4.5 million (I said $5.4 million) for $202 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Uncle Drew Box Office Prediction

A convergence of current and former NBA stars and comedians gather for Uncle Drew, out next weekend. The sports comedy that comes with prosthetic makeup aplenty is based on a title character first seen in Pepsi commercials with Boston Celtics point guard Kyrie Irving playing him. Other basketball notables in the cast include Shaquille O’Neal, Reggie Miller, Chris Webber, Nate Robinson, and Lisa Leslie. On the funny side – Lil Rel Howery, Nick Kroll, Tiffany Haddish, J.B. Smoove, and Mike Epps. Charles Stone III, perhaps best known for making Drumline, directs.

Uncle Drew hopes to bring in a sizable African-American crowd and lovers of the game it humorously covers. The pic could certainly achieve sleeper status with a gross in the high teens. It actually has a somewhat similar opening weekend range as Sicario: Day of the Soldado, which debuts against it. The two newcomers should battle for third place between Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2.

For now, I’m giving Drew a slight edge with a forecast between $16-$17 million.

Uncle Drew opening weekend prediction: $16.4 million

For my Sicario: Day of the Soldado prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/19/sicario-day-of-the-soldado-box-office-prediction/

Sicario: Day of the Soldado Box Office Prediction

Not your traditional summer sequel involving superheroes, dinosaurs or animated characters, Sicario: Day of the Soldado arrives in theaters next weekend and hopes to serve as counter programming to said seasonal blockbusters. The pic is a follow-up to 2015’s Sicario, Denis Villeneuve’s critically acclaimed crime thriller that garnered three Oscar nominations. Benicio del Toro and Josh Brolin (this summer’s reigning sequel king) reprise their roles from the original, though Emily Blunt does not appear (she’s been busy with A Quiet Place and Mary Poppins Returns). New costars include Isabela Moner, Jeffrey Donovan, Catherine Keener, and Matthew Modine. As for Villeneuve, he’s moved onto Arrival and Blade Runner 2049 and Italian director Stefano Sollima is now on board. The original’s screenwriter, Taylor Sheridan (who also is responsible for Hell or High Water and Wind River), is back penning this sequel.

Sicario opened in the fall of 2015 and its first wide release weekend brought in $12.1 million with an eventual gross of over $46 million domestically (it earned $85 million total worldwide against a reported budget of $30 million). Soldado may manage to slightly outpace that debut number of part 1 and a sequel is apparently already in the works. That premiere could put it in a battle for third place with the weekend’s other newcomers (Uncle Drew) and behind Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2.

Sicario: Day of the Soldado opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million

For my Uncle Drew prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/19/uncle-drew-box-office-prediction/