Blogger’s Note (10/04/17): I have revised my estimate up from $8.2 million to $10.9 million
Lest you confuse it with My Little Pony: The Seance or My Little Pony: The Rodeo perhaps, My Little Pony: The Movie gallops into theaters next weekend with a likely soft footprint.
Based on the Hasbro toy franchise that also spawned Transformers and G.I. Joe franchises, this one leaves out the action and is geared towards family audiences and little girls. The pic is an extension of a children’s animated show that airs on The Hub (which is apparently a thing… I’m probably not the target audience).
In addition to the voice actors who work on the TV series, there’s some familiar faces behind the voices including Emily Blunt, Zoe Saldana, Liev Schrieber, Kristin Chenoweth, Michael Pena, Sia, Uzo Aduba, and Taye Diggs.
Family audiences will have Ninjago in its third weekend for competition, even though it’s underwhelmed in its earnings. Yet it’s hard to see these ponies breaking out in any major way. I have doubts this will even reach double digits out of the gate.
My Little Pony: The Movie opening weekend prediction: $10.9 million
Well it’s Throwback Thursday and I’m giving you the culmination of my three-part series recounting the movie summers of 30, 20, and 10 years ago. We’ve already gone back to memory lane in 1987 and 1997. If you missed either of those posts, you can find them here:
That means I’m traveling back a decade ago to 2007 and it’s a summer where threequels were majorly in vogue, accounting for four of the top six grossing pictures. Sequels were pervasive in general in this particular season and it was a breakout summer for one Seth Rogen.
As I have with these previous entries, I’ll count down the top ten hits as well as other notable pics and some flops.
Let’s get to it!
10. Rush Hour 3
Domestic Gross: $140 million
The third and final pairing of Jackie Chan and Chris Tucker in this action comedy franchise is our first threequel on the list. It fell a steep $86 million short of what Rush Hour 2 accomplished six seasons earlier.
9. Knocked Up
Domestic Gross: $148 million
The comedic summer breakout continued Judd Apatow’s hit streak after The 40 Yr. Old Virgin from two previous summers and gave Seth Rogen his first big leading role. Katherine Heigl may have inexplicably trash talked it later, but audiences disagreed.
8. The Simpsons Movie
Domestic Gross: $183 million
Arriving nearly two decades after the still going FOX animated series debut, The Simpsons Movie surpassed all expectations with its gargantuan gross. Just last month, producers announced there’s been traction on a planned sequel.
7. Ratatouille
Domestic Gross: $206 million
Our second animated entry comes from the Pixar conglomerate. The critically hailed rat tale actually experienced one of the lowest openings for Pixar, but it still managed to top $200 million and its reputation has only grown.
6. The Bourne Ultimatum
Domestic Gross: $227 million
Matt Damon’s third go-round as the title character is still the highest grossing entry of the franchise and the only to pass $200 million. The star returned to the series just last summer.
5. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Domestic Gross: $292 million
The fifth installment of the $2 billion plus franchise marks the first one directed by David Yates, who would make the following three pics as well. It stands #5 of the 8 Potter pics in domestic gross.
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Domestic Gross: $309 million
The third Pirates flick is when critics really started to turn on the series. Getting past $300 million is nothing to sneeze at, but it is nearly $115 million lower than its predecessor Dead Man’s Chest just one summer before.
3. Transformers
Domestic Gross: $319 million
Michael Bay’s bot series started a decade ago and it’s still going. The original ranks third of the five in grosses as its two sequels topped it, but the last two have fallen under it.
2. Shrek the Third
Domestic Gross: $322 million
Much like Pirates, this is when reviewers started to sour on this series. It was still chugging along, but it did fall $120 million below Shrek 2.
1. Spider-Man 3
Domestic Gross: $336 million
Anyone noticing a pattern here? Once again – a third franchise entry where critics started sharpening their knives. This end to the Sam Raimi Spidey trilogy was considered a big letdown in quality, yet it still topped the summer while earning less than its two predecessors.
And now for some other notable pictures of summer 2007:
Live Free or Die Hard
Domestic Gross: $134 million
From a pure numbers standpoint, it’s the highest grossing pic to feature Bruce Willis in his signature role of John McClane (though that changes when adjusting for inflation). From a pure entertainment standpoint, the decision to make this the only PG-13 Die Hard film was a bit puzzling.
Superbad
Domestic Gross: $121 million
Mr. Rogen’s big summer kept rolling along with this acclaimed comedy in which he costarred and co-wrote. Jonah Hill, Michael Cera, and McLovin became household names due to this.
I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry
Domestic Gross: $120 million
Before his movies moved to Netflix, Adam Sandler could still crank out $100M+ earners just a decade ago, even if it was this stale comedy co-starring Kevin James.
Hairspray
Domestic Gross: $118 million
Based on both the John Waters 1988 pic and the Broadway musical that followed it, Hairspray featuring John Travolta, Michelle Pfeiffer, and Christopher Walken performed above expectations.
Ocean’s Thirteen
Domestic Gross: $117 million
Worth mentioning because it’s yet another threequel that couldn’t quite match the grosses of the first two. An all female version of the Ocean’s franchise is soon coming to a theater near you.
Once
Domestic Gross: $9 million
That may be appear to a small gross, but this little Irish romantic musical came out of nowhere stateside and has achieved a devoted following. It’s even been adapted into a Broadway play.
And now for some of the flops of summer 2007:
Evan Almighty
Domestic Gross: $100 million
Yes, it may have crossed the century mark, but this spin-off of 2003’s Bruce Almighty was considered the flop of the season. Starring Steve Carell fresh off the acclaimed 40 Yr. Old Virgin, this family feature came with a reported $175 million budget. Audiences and critics weren’t impressed.
Stardust
Domestic Gross: $38 million
This fantasy flick with Claire Danes, Robert De Niro, and Michelle Pfeiffer only earned a bit more than half its $70 million budget domestically. However, director Matthew Vaughn has bounced back in a significant way with Kick-Ass, X-Men: First Class, and Kingsman: The Secret Service.
The Invasion
Domestic Gross: $15 million
Another remake of Invasion of the Body Snatchers, bad reviews sunk this pic that featured Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig, fresh off his heralded debut as James Bond.
I Know Who Killed Me
Domestic Gross: $7 million
Lindsay Lohan was a long way from Freaky Friday and Mean Girls with this panned psychological thriller that featured the starlet as a stripper. Audiences turned away.
And that does it, folks! You can rest assure you’ll see summer posts recounting 1988, 1998, and 2008 in a year’s time…
Today on the blog, I continue on with my listing of the Top Ten Summer Hits from years past. I’ve already gone over both 1987 and 1997. If you missed those entries, you can find them here:
On this Throwback Thursday, we travel back a decade to 2007 to find what was burning up the charts in a summer where comedies like Knocked Up and Superbad were making us laugh, the Transformers franchise was just beginning, and Spider-Man 3 was overwhelming us with too many villains and Tobey Maguire dancing.
As I have with these posts before, I’ll rank them on my own (not exactly refined) musical scale of 1 (summer bummer) to 10 (summer fire) and let you know whether or not said song resides on my Apple Music playlist.
Let’s get to it!
10. “Make Me Better” – Fabolous feat. Ne-Yo
Brooklyn MC Fabolous starting making hits in 2001 and this Timbaland produced and string heavy track featuring Ne-Yo is one of his biggest. Timbaland always delivers good beats. It’s decent, though nothing too memorable.
My Rating: 6 and a half
Is It On My Apple Music?: No
9. “Bartender” – T-Pain feat. Akon
Like many of Mr. Pain’s tracks, this is made for careless nights at the club and in that sense, it’s perfect acceptable. Like some of those nights, however, you may have forgotten it by morning.
My Rating: 6
Is It On My Apple Music?: No
8. “Makes Me Wonder” by Maroon 5
The first single from Maroon 5’s long-awaited second album, this was actually their first #1 hit (a bit surprising considering the smashes from their debut release). It’s a catchy as heck pop concoction with Adam Levine’s fine vocals.
My Rating: 8 and a half
Is It On My Apple Music?: Yes
7. “Beautiful Girls” by Sean Kingston
Jamaican artist Kingston scored a huge one hit wonder here with this reggae tinged ode to a girl he loves. The lyrics are really quite disturbing if you think about them at all, but summer songs are all about enjoying them with the top down and this pretty much delivers.
My Rating: 6 and a half
Is It On My Apple Music?: No
6. “The Way I Are” by Timbaland feat. Keri Hilson
Grammatical issues aside, the second single from mega-producer Timbaland’s Shock Value album is a synth heavy standout jam. My goodness – this man was on fire in the mid 2000s.
My Rating: 8 and a half
Is It On My Apple Music?: Yes
5. “Buy U A Drank (Shawty Snappin’)” – T-Pain feat. Yung Joc
And now for the lead single from Mr. Pain’s second smash album. It’s another club anthem meant for quick consumption on a night out and it’s a notch above #9 “Bartender”.
My Rating: 6 and a half
Is It On My Apple Music?: No
4. “Hey There Delilah” by Plain White T’s
The signature tune from these Illinois rockers, this track was inescapable a decade ago. The ballad’s rating here perhaps suffers from its overexposure, but it does get in your head.
My Rating: 7
Is It On My Apple Music?: No
3. “Party Like a Rockstar” by Shop Boyz
The first and only hit from these Atlanta rappers, “Rockstar” merged the sounds of hip hop and rock that first gained exposure two decades earlier with Aerosmith and Run DMC. It’s the most downloaded ringtone of 2007. It’s not “Walk This Way”, but it’s fun.
My Rating: 6 and a half
Is It On My Apple Music?: No
2. “Big Girls Don’t Cry” by Fergie
The fourth single off her debut album and the third #1 from it, Black Eyed Peas songstress Fergie slowed it down here with this ditty. Truthfully, it was never among my favorite tracks that were singles but maybe I just gravitated toward other hits like “London Bridge”, “Glamorous”, and “Clumsy”. Still it’s solid. By the way, if that guy Fergie is romancing in the video looks familiar – that would Milo Ventimiglia or Jack from TV’s “This Is Us”.
My Rating: 7 and a half
Is It On My Apple Music?: No
1. “Umbrella” by Rihanna feat. Jay-Z
Now we’re talking! One of Rihanna’s best cuts, this was actually rejected by Britney Spears. Oops. With a fine assist from Mr. Shawn Carter (who co-wrote), “Umbrella” features a towering beat and is one of the endlessly played tracks that somehow doesn’t get old. It deserves its accolades.
My Rating: 10
Is It On My Apple Music?: Yes
Well, that does it folks! The last ten, twenty, and thirty years of summertime hits. Next summer – get ready for 1988, 1998, and 2008. And hitting the blog within days will be reviewing the movie summers of 1987, 1997, and 2007. Stay tuned!
A week from today, Transformers: The Last Knight appears primed to easily rule the #1 spot. The question is how the fifth entry in the franchise performs compared to its predecessors. Michael Bay is back in the director’s chair (reportedly for the final time) with returning cast members Mark Wahlberg, Stanley Tucci, Tyrese Gibson, Josh Duhamel, and John Turturro. Sir Anthony Hopkins and Nicola Peltz are new to the series. Most importantly, Optimus, Bumblebee, and plenty of Autobots and Decepticons return in their CG form.
The pic, with its reported $260 million budget, faces no other features opening directly against it. This Transformers franchise has shown itself to be critic proof over its decade of existence. That said, Knight‘s predecessor posted a series low domestically.
Let’s take a trip down box office grosses lane for these bots, shall we?
Transformers (2007)
Opening Weekend: $70.5 million three-day opening with $155 million over six-day July 4th weekend roll out. $319 million total domestic gross.
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (2009)
Opening Weekend: $108.9 million three-day opening with $200 million five-day roll out. $402 million total domestic gross.
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (2011)
Opening Weekend: $97.8 million three-day opening with $180.6 million six-day July 4th weekend roll out. $352 million total domestic gross.
Transformers: Age of Extinction (2014)
Opening Weekend: $100 million. $245 million total domestic gross.
As you can see, Age of Extinction earned more than $100 million less than the third entry. It’s also the only one that opened over a regular three-day release. The Last Knight debuts on Wednesday so you’ll be witnessing my guesstimate for its traditional weekend and five-day gross.
Whew… got all that?
Knight appears likely to suffer from franchise fatigue stateside. It’s worth noting that this franchise makes a killing overseas and that should not change. I could see a three-day haul in the mid to high with a five-day take of just over $80 million.
Transformers: The Last Knight opening weekend prediction: $57.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $81.5 million (Friday to Sunday)
This coming weekend, there’s bound to be lots of monkey business at the box office as Dawn of the Planet of the Apes opens. It looks on course to absolutely dominate the weekend and you can find my detailed prediction post on it here:
As I will talk about in just a minute, the Fourth of July holiday box office was unimpressive and that’s being kind. Dawn is the only new entry coming and all the holdovers should have drops ranging from high 30s to mid 50s. Current #1 and #2 Transformers: Age of Extinction and Tammy should suffer the largest drops.
And with that, I’ll predict the top six for the weekend:
1. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $77.2 million
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)
3. Tammy
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 50%)
4. How to Train Your Dragon 2
Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 43%)
5. 22 Jump Street
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)
6. Earth to Echo
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million (representing a drop of 39%)
Box Office Results (July 4-6)
As mentioned, this was a bad Fourth of July at the movies. How bad? Adjusted for inflation, it’s the poorest performance in 27 summers. Ouch. Summer 2014 is currently running 20% behind last summer. Transformers: Age of Extinction held onto the top spot with $37 million, but it’s 63% drop is troubling and Extinction will certainly be the lowest domestic grosser of the franchise. It couldn’t match my $42.2M estimate. The robot extravaganza has earned $175 million so far.
Melissa McCarthy’s Tammy got off to a middling start with $21.5 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and $33.3 million since its Wednesday debut. This is below my respective estimates of $27.3M and $42.9M. Bad reviews and negative audience reaction (a troubling C+ on CinemaScore) likely contributed to its so-so premiere and it shouldn’t have the strong legs that many summer comedies develop.
In third was 22 Jump Street in its fourth weekend with $9.8 million, just above my $8.9M prediction. The blockbuster sequel stands at $159 million.
Landing with disappointing results in fourth was the horror flick Deliver Us from Evil with just $9.7 million over the traditional weekend and $15.2 million since Wednesday. It fell short of my respective estimates of $13.1M and $20.6M. Like most titles in its genre, expect this one to fall fast next weekend.
How to Train Your Dragon 2 made $8.9 million in weekend #4 for firth place, above my $7.8M projection. The animated sequel has brought in lackluster results and stands at $140 million so far, well below expectations.
Another kiddie pic debuted in sixth as I predicted with Earth to Echo earning a muted $8.3 million over the weekend and $13.5 million since Wednesday. This is just slightly higher than my estimates of $8M and $12.3M, respectively.
Most years on the Fourth of July holiday weekend, we see a massive tent pole picture making its debut, but this year it’s different. Three new pictures – the Melissa McCarthy comedy Tammy, horror flick Deliver Us from Evil, and kiddie pic Earth to Echo all debut on Wednesday and will each attempt to compete with the sophomore weekend of Transformers: Age of Extinction. You can read my detailed predictions on the holiday newbies here:
While I’m predicting solid results for Tammy, OK results for Evil, and disappointing returns for Echo, it’s highly unlikely anything will manage to dislodge Transformers from the top spot. Therefore the Michael Bay robofest should be the first summer 2014 picture to stay #1 for two weeks straight.
And with that, my estimated top six for the fireworks frame (with five-day predictions for the new entries included):
1. Transformers: Age of Extinction
Predicted Gross: $42.2 million (representing a drop of 57%)
2. Tammy
Predicted Gross: $27.3 million ($42.9 million prediction from Wednesday to Sunday)
3. Deliver Us from Evil
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million ($20.6 million prediction from Wednesday to Sunday)
4. 22 Jump Street
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 44%)
5. Earth to Echo
Predicted Gross: $8 million ($12.3 million prediction from Wednesday to Sunday)
6. How To Train Your Dragon 2
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)
Box Office Results (June 27-29)
Transformers: Age of Extinction was able to reach the biggest opening weekend so far in 2014 with exactly $100 million (leading some rival studios to question the accuracy of that number). This was right in the range of $98.6 million projection. While this is certainly a fine opening, there is a very good chance Extinction could end up being the lowest domestic grosser of the series thus far.
Staying in the #2 spot was 22 Jump Street with $15.8 million (above my $14.2M prediction) and the comedy hit’s three-week total stands at $140 million. Animated sequel How to Train Your Dragon 2 was third in its third weekend with $13.2 million, right in line with my $13M estimate. The disappointing family flick has earned nearly $122 million and will fall far short of its predecessor’s $217M haul. Keeping with the sequel frenzy, Kevin Hart’s Think Like a Man Too dropped from first to fourth with a hefty 64% plunge and a gross $10.3 million (below my $13.8M prediction). Rounding out the top six were holdovers Maleficent with $8.3 million (I said $8.2M) and Jersey Boys with $7.7 million (I said $7.8M).
There’s just one newcomer entering the multiplex this weekend – but it’s a big one. Transformers: Age of Extinction is expected by many (including this blogger) to post the heftiest opening weekend of 2014 so far. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:
My estimate for Extinction is actually a big lower than that of others so we’ll see how I do come Monday of next week. As for holdovers, I’m expecting the current #1 Think Like a Man Too to drop over 50% in its second weekend while 22 Jump Street might not quite lose half its audience in weekend 3. That could definitely mean 22 Jump Street remains second while Man Too drops to third.
DreamWorks animated financial letdown How to Train Your Dragon 2 should be 4th in its third weekend while a battle for fifth could ensue between the second weekend of Jersey Boys and fifth weekend of Maleficent.
And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top six:
1. Transformers: Age of Extinction
Predicted Gross: $98.6 million
2. 22 Jump Street
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (representing a drop of 48%)
3. Think Like a Man Too
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million (representing a drop of 53%)
4. How to Train Your Dragon 2
Predicted Gross: $13 million (representing a drop of 47%)
5. Maleficent
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 36%)
6. Jersey Boys
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 41%)
Box Office Results (June 20-22)
As predicted, Kevin Hart’s Think Like a Man Too topped the box office charts out of the gate, but it didn’t match my expectation. It took in $29.4 million, below my $38.2M estimate. The sequel couldn’t match the $33 million opening of its predecessor which was a bit of a surprise. Still, with a meager reported budget of $24 million, Man Too is quite a success.
22 Jump Street dipped to second with $27.4 million, right in line with my $27.3M projection. The Jonah Hill/Channing Tatum comedy sequel has amassed an impressive $109 million in just ten days.
How to Train Your Dragon 2 continued to underperform with $24.7 million in weekend #2, well below my $32 million estimate. The animated flick has not met expectations with $94 million so far. It will probably not match the performance of its predecessor’s $217 million. Most prognosticators figured it would easily surpass that number.
Clint Eastwood’s Jersey Boys had a muted debut at fourth with $13.3 million – below my generous $18.9M prediction. While the pic received mostly decent reviews, adult audiences treated the Four Seasons biopic with ambivalence. Disney’s Maleficent held up well in its fourth weekend with $12.9 million, outpacing my $10.4M prediction. The Angelina Jolie flick has earned $185 million so far and should blast past $200M shortly.
This Friday, Transformers: Age of Extinction will attempt to score the biggest opening weekend of 2014 and its chances are pretty darn solid. That title is currently held by Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which scored $95 million in its debut.
Director Michael Bay is back behind the camera just as he was for the first three installments. However, have an entirely new cast that includes Mark Wahlberg, Stanley Tucci, and Kelsey Grammer. The trilogy’s star Shia LaBeouf is nowhere to be seen… and he’s probably off doing something really weird somewhere.
Comparing the Age of Extinction‘s predicted gross to the other franchise entrees is a tricky proposition. That’s because the other films opened on Tuesdays or Wednesdays with some on Fourth of July holiday weekends. The third flick Dark of the Moon took in a whopping $180 million over a six-day period. The second Revenge of the Fallen grossed $200.1 million over five days while the original made $155.4 million over five days in 2007.
The premiere of Extinction is unlikely to reach those levels since it will only be for its traditional weekend haul (plus Thursday night grosses). It’s also a legitimate question as to whether the franchise has lost a bit of steam. As I see it, the big question is if this clears $100 million out of the gate. I’m not totally confident that it will. The range of how this opens could be $120 million on the high end. Anything below $90 million would be considered low, especially considering the openings of the first three pictures.
Ultimately, I believe the dinobots and decepticons and autobots will claim the title of #1 opening so far in 2014, but not by much.
Transformers: Age of Extinction opening weekend prediction: $98.6 million
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