Tag: Trainwreck

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 18th Edition

We arrive at my weekly Oscar predictions and a new wrinkle has been added. I’m predicting every category with the exception of Foreign and Documentary (those will eventually be added).

As with last week, I’ll ranking according to my feelings on likelihood of the films and performers being nominated and let you know what’s changed since last week. The pluses and minuses and no changes indicated their ranking from last week to this week.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. The Revenant (No Change)
  3. Room (No Change)
  4. Brooklyn (+3)
  5. Carol (-1)
  6. The Martian (No Change)
  7. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
  8. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  9. The Big Short (+2)

Other Possibilities:

10. Inside Out (No Change)

11. The Hateful Eight (-2)

12. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+11)

13. Trumbo (+6)

14. Son of Saul (+3)

15. The Danish Girl (+1)

16. Sicario (+5)

17. Beasts of No Nation (-3)

18. Steve Jobs (-5)

19. Straight Outta Compton (-4)

20. Creed (-8)

21. Joy (-2)

22. Love and Mercy (-1)

23. Anomalisa (-6)

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: The Big Short. OUT: The Hateful Eight.

Best Director

  1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (No Change)
  3. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
  4. Ridley Scott, The Martian (No Change)
  5. Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)

7. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)

8. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+9)

9. John Crowley, Brooklyn (No Change)

10. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-2)

11. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+1)

12. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (+1)

13. Jay Roach, Trumbo (Previously Not Ranked)

14. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (+2)

15. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (-1)

16. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation (-5)

17. Ryan Coogler, Creed (-7)

DROPPED OUT: David O. Russell, Joy

What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
  2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (+1)
  3. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (-1)
  4. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (+1)
  5. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Martian (No Change)

7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)

8. Michael Caine, Youth (+3)

9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (No Change)

10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (No Change)

11. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (+2)

12. Steve Carell, The Big Short (No Change)

13. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (-5)

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Actress

  1. Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
  2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
  3. Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
  4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (No Change)
  5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (No Change)

Other Possibilities:

6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)

7. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+2)

8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (-2)

9. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)

10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (No Change)

11. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette (+1)

12. Lily Tomlin, Grandma (-1)

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  2. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (+1)
  3. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+1)
  4. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (+1)
  5. Sylvester Stallone, Creed (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (+4)

7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (-1)

8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (No Change)

9. Christian Bale, The Big Short (-2)

10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)

11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-2)

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
  2. Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
  3. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (No Change)
  4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (No Change)
  5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+4)

7. Jane Fonda, Youth (-2)

8. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (-2)

9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)

10. Joan Allen, Room (-2)

DROPPED OUT: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Helen Mirren, OUT: Jane Fonda.

Best Original Screenplay 

  1. Spotlight (No Change)
  2. Inside Out (+1)
  3. The Hateful Eight (-1)
  4. Bridge of Spies (No Change)
  5. Love and Mercy (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Son of Saul (-1)

7. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Not Ranked)

8. 99 Homes (No Change)

9. Sicario (+1)

10. Ex Machina (+1)

11. Straight Outta Compton (-4)

12. Youth (Previously Not Ranked)

13. Joy (-4)

14. Trainwreck (-2)

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Love and Mercy. OUT: Son of Saul.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Room (+2)
  2. Brooklyn (+2)
  3. Carol (-2)
  4. The Big Short (+1)
  5. Steve Jobs (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Martian (+1)

7. Trumbo (+3)

8. The Revenant (-2)

9. Beasts of No Nation (No Change)

10. Anomalisa (-2)

11. The Danish Girl (+1)

DROPPED OUT: Creed

What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes

Best Animated Feature (First Time Predictions)

  1. Inside Out
  2. Anomalisa
  3. Kahlil Gobran’s The Prophet
  4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
  5. The Good Dinosaur

Other Possibilities:

6. The Peanuts Movie

7. When Marnie Was There

8. Home

Best Cinematography (First Time Predictions)

  1. The Hateful Eight
  2. The Revenant
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road
  4. The Martian
  5. Sicario

Other Possibilities:

6. Carol

7. Bridge of Spies

8. The Danish Girl

Best Production Design (First Time Predictions)

  1. Carol
  2. The Danish Girl
  3. Mad Max: Fury Road
  4. Cinderella
  5. Bridge of Spies

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. Brooklyn

8. The Martian

9. The Hateful Eight

10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

11. MacBeth

Best Editing (First Time Predictions)

  1. Spotlight
  2. Mad Max: Fury Road
  3. The Revenant
  4. The Big Short
  5. Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

6. The Hateful Eight

7. The Martian

8. Bridge of Spies

9. Room

Best Costume Design (First Time Predictions)

  1. Carol
  2. Cinderella
  3. Brooklyn
  4. The Danish Girl
  5. Far from the Madding Crowd

Other Possibilities:

6. Mad Max: Fury Road

7. Suffragette

8. Trumbo

9. The Hateful Eight

10. MacBeth

Best Makeup and Hairstyling (First Time Predictions)

  1. The Danish Girl
  2. Carol
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Other Possibilities:

4. Mad Max: Fury Road

5. Black Mass

6. Pan

7. The Hateful Eight

8. The Revenant

Best Visual Effects (First Time Predictions)

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Martian
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  4. Jurassic World
  5. The Walk

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. In the Heart of the Sea

8. Ex Machina

Best Sound Mixing (First Time Predictions)

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Martian
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  4. The Revenant
  5. Sicario

Other Possibilities:

6. Jurassic World

7. The Hateful Eight

8. In the Heart of the Sea

Best Sound Editing (First Time Predictions)

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road
  2. The Revenant
  3. The Martian
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  5. In the Heart of the Sea

Other Possibilities:

6. Sicario

7. The Hateful Eight

8. Jurassic World

Best Original Score (First Time Predictions)

  1. The Hateful Eight
  2. Carol
  3. Spotlight
  4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  5. The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. Bridge of Spies

8. Sicario

9. Brooklyn

10. Mad Max: Fury Road

11. Southpaw

Best Original Song (First Time Predictions)

  1. “Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground
  2. “See You Again” from Furious 7
  3. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey
  4. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre
  5. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey

Other Possibilities:

6. “Simple Song #3” from Youth

7. “One Kind of Love” from Love and Mercy

8. “So Long” from Concussion

Whew! Those predictions reflect a current belief of the following films garnering nominations with number included:

9 Nominations

Carol

8 Nominations

Mad Max: Fury Road

7 Nominations

The Revenant

6 Nominations

The Danish Girl, The Martian, Spotlight

5 Nominations

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

4 Nominations

Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Hateful Eight, Steve Jobs

3 Nominations

The Big Short, Room

2 Nominations

Cinderella, Fifty Shades of Grey, Inside Out, Love and Mercy, Sicario, Trumbo

1 Nomination

Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunting Ground, In the Heat of the Sea, Joy, Jurassic World, Kahlil Gabron’s The Prophet, Shaun the Sheep Movie, Spectre, The Walk

 

2015: The Year of Amy Schumer

Director Judd Apatow has had a fine history of bringing comedic performers known more for their small screen work to silver screen glory. Steve Carell in The 40 Yr. Old Virgin. Seth Rogen in Knocked Up. Kristin Wiig and Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids (which he produced).

It happened yet again in 2015 with Amy Schumer for this summer’s Trainwreck, a critically acclaimed box office hit which gave the celebrated comedienne her inaugural starring vehicle. Schumer made the most of it, writing the script and giving Apatow a bit of a comeback vehicle after a couple of commercial disappointments. The pic earned $110 million stateside (and an 85% Rotten Tomatoes rating) while giving humorous supporting roles to Bill Hader, Tilda Swinton, and even LeBron James.

2015 has been a watershed year for Ms. Schumer. In addition to her considerable film success, her Comedy Central show “Inside Amy Schumer” was nominated for five Emmys (after winning a Peabody last year) and she capped the year off with an HBO stand-up special.

Expect to see lots more of Schumer on the big screen as she is currently working on a buddy comedy with her buddy, Jennifer Lawrence. We will certainly remember this year as the one which turned her into a movie star.

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 11 Edition

And now we’ve arrived at my weekly Oscar predictions for the eight biggest categories and yes, things have changed in one week. Most notably, many critics precursor awards have been announced and just in the last 48 hours, nominations for the SAG and Golden Globe awards have been revealed. The past week’s activity has given a huge boost to Mad Max: Fury Road‘s inclusion into the Best Picture race and I’m including it for the first time. Other pics that have received some momentum: Carol, Trumbo (in acting races), and possibly The Big Short.

For the first time, I’m ceasing to list my predicted nominees and other possibilities alphabetically. We are now switching to where I’m listing according to my thoughts on their probability of being nominated.

And here we go, my friends:

Best Picture

  1. Spotlight
  2. The Revenant
  3. Room
  4. Carol
  5. Mad Max: Fury Road
  6. The Martian
  7. Brooklyn
  8. Bridge of Spies
  9. The Hateful Eight

Other Possibilities:

10. Inside Out

11. The Big Short

12. Creed

13. Steve Jobs

14. Beasts of No Nation

15. Straight Outta Compton

16. The Danish Girl

17. Son of Saul

18. Anomalisa

19. Trumbo

20. Joy

21. Sicario

22. Love and Mercy

23. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Mad Max: Fury Road, Out: Inside Out

Best Director

  1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
  2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
  3. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
  4. Ridley Scott, The Martian
  5. Todd Haynes, Carol

Other Possibilities:

6. Lenny Abrahamson, Room

7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

8. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

9. John Crowley, Brooklyn

10. Ryan Coogler, Creed

11. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation

12. Adam McKay, The Big Short

13. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul

14. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

15. David O. Russell, Joy

16. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

17. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Todd Haynes. Out: Lenny Abrahamson

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
  2. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
  3. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
  4. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
  5. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Martian

7. Will Smith, Concussion

8. Michael B. Jordan, Creed

9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes

10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

11. Michael Caine, Youth

12. Steve Carell, The Big Short

13. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Bryan Cranston. Out: Matt Damon

Best Actress

  1. Brie Larson, Room
  2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
  3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
  4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
  5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Other Possibilities:

6. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams

7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

8. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back

9. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold

10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

11. Lily Tomlin, Grandma

12. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

What’s Changed Since Last Week – NO CHANGES

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
  2. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
  3. Michael Keaton, Spotlight
  4. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
  5. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

7. Christian Bale, The Big Short

8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant

9. Benicio del Toro, Sicario

10. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes

11. Jacob Tremblay, Room

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Paul Dano and Idris Elba. Out: Tom Hardy and Mark Ruffalo

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
  2. Rooney Mara, Carol
  3. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
  4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
  5. Jane Fonda, Youth

Other Possibilities:

6. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria

7. Helen Mirren, Trumbo

8. Joan Allen, Room

9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

10. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

11. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina

What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Spotlight
  2. The Hateful Eight
  3. Inside Out
  4. Bridge of Spies
  5. Son of Saul

Other Possibilities:

6. Love and Mercy

7. Straight Outta Compton

8. 99 Homes

9. Joy

10. Sicario

11. Ex Machina

12. Trainwreck

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Son of Saul. Out: Love and Mercy

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Carol
  2. Steve Jobs
  3. Room
  4. Brooklyn
  5. The Big Short

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. The Martian

8. Anomalisa

9. Beasts of No Nation

10. Trumbo

11. Creed

12. The Danish Girl

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: The Big Short. Out: Anomalisa. 

And that’ll do it for this week’s predictions! Stay tuned for next Friday’s picks…

Box Office Predictions: August 7-9

August brings in four new titles for moviegoers to consider this weekend: the big budget reboot of Fantastic Four, psychological thriller The Gift, Meryl Streep’s comedic drama Ricki and the Flash, and British stop motion animated pic Shaun the Sheep Movie. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/30/fantastic-four-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/31/the-gift-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/31/ricki-and-the-flash-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/01/shaun-the-sheep-movie-box-office-prediction/

I actually expect all four newbies to find themselves in the top five. Fantastic Four should have no trouble opening at #1, though I must say the anticipation for this seems less than your typical comic book movie.

After its strong debut, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation should drop to second, losing about half its audience. My predictions have The Gift having a robust opening at third with Ricki and the Flash and Shaun the Sheep Movie rounding out the top five. Due to its less than anticipated roll out over the weekend, Vacation should fall out of the top five in only its second frame.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Fantastic Four

Predicted Gross: $47.7 million

2. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Predicted Gross: $28.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)

3. The Gift

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million

4. Ricki and the Flash

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. Shaun the Sheep Movie

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

Box Office Results (July 31-August 2)

Tom Cruise’s fifth appearance as super agent Ethan Hunt in Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation posted positive results as the critically acclaimed sequel earned $55.5 million, a bit above my $52.3M. This finds the franchise in very good shape and a sixth flick has already been confirmed.

Meanwhile, the critically drubbed Vacation reboot got off to a shaky start with $14.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $21 million since its Wednesday premiere. This is below my respective estimates of $17.1M and $24.7M. With a middling B score from Cinemascore, I don’t see this holding up well as moviegoers mostly rejected a return to Wally World.

As for holdovers, Ant-Man dropped to third after two weeks on top with $12.8 million compared to my $11.4M projection. The Marvel pic has amassed $132 million so far. Minions took fourth with $12.3 million, in line with my $11.8M prediction and its total stands at $287 million. The Adam Sandler dud Pixels was fifth with $10.5 million in weekend two, right on target with my $10.3M estimate. Its weak cume is $45 million. Trainwreck was sixth with $9.6 million (I said $10.2M) and it’s made $79 million in three weeks. Southpaw dipped a bit further in its sophomore weekend than I foresaw with $7.6 million compared to my $9.5M projection for a $31 million total so far.

And that’ll do it for now! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 31-August 2

As July comes to a close, two new entries look to nab the top spots at the box office this weekend as Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation and comedy reboot Vacation debut. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/23/mission-impossible-rogue-nation-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/24/vacation-box-office-prediction/

Tom Cruise’s fifth go round as Ethan Hunt should have no problem at all taking the #1 spot while I look for Vacation to land in the runner-up spot.

As for holdovers, I look for Minions to hold up better than current champ Ant-Man, allowing them to place third and fourth. Adam Sandler’s Pixels had a very poor premiere (more on that below) and I look for it to experience the heftiest decline, putting it in a close race for fifth with Trainwreck and Southpaw.

And with that, we’ll do a top seven predictions for this weekend:

1. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Predicted Gross: $52.3 million

2. Vacation

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $24.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Minions

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)

4. Ant-Man

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. Pixels

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million (representing a drop of 56%)

6. Trainwreck

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 41%)

7. Southpaw

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (July 24-26)

Marvel’s Ant-Man surprisingly held onto the #1 slot in its second weekend with $24.9 million, in line with my $25.6M projection. It has grossed a solid $106M in its first ten days of release.

The “surprise” is that Pixels was expected to top the charts, yet it tanked with a $24 million opening – less than half of my extremely generous $49M prediction. The critically panned video game pic represents another poor performance from Adam Sandler, whose box office star has been waning in recent years.

Minions was third with $22.9 million, on target with my $23.4M estimate and the animated hit has brought in $262M.

Trainwreck held up admirably for fourth in weekend #2 with $17.2 million (a bit under my $18.7M prediction) for a total of $61 million. The Judd Apatow comedy should top $100M when all is said and done.

Jake Gyllenhaal’s boxing drama Southpaw exceeded most expectations with a sturdy $16.7 million, ahead of my $12.9M projection.

Finally, teen romance Paper Towns (based on a John Green bestseller) had a less than expected roll out with just $12.6 million, considerably below my $26.8M estimate. While Towns has a tiny budget and will easily profit, this is disappointing considering The Fault in Our Stars (also based on a Green novel) made $48M out of the gate last summer.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 24-26

Three new titles populate the multiplex this weekend as the video game inspired family comedy Pixels, adaptation of John Green bestseller Paper Towns, and Jake Gyllenhaal boxing drama Southpaw all debut. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/16/pixels-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/17/paper-towns-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/17/southpaw-box-office-prediction/

I expect Pixels to easily nab the #1 spot, though it is worth noting that my prediction is higher than some other prognosticators are putting it at. And to be fair, I overestimated Ant-Man this past weekend (more on that below). Still, it’s tough to imagine it not debuting in first place.

It could be a very tight race between Paper Towns, Ant-Man, and Minions for the runner-up position. I am estimating Towns manages to get there with Ant-Man and Minions losing over half their previous frame audiences in their respective second and third weekends.

Amy Schumer’s comedy Trainwreck should suffer the smallest decline of holdovers after its robust roll out. That would leave Southpaw outside of the top five with a sixth place showing and it’ll certainly need to greatly exceed expectations to avoid that fate.

And with that, it’s a top 6 predictions this weekend:

1. Pixels

Predicted Gross: $49 million

2. Paper Towns

Predicted Gross: $26.8 million

3. Ant-Man

Predicted Gross: $25.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)

4. Minions

Predicted Gross: $23.4 million (representing a drop of 52%)

5. Trainwreck

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million (representing a drop of 37%)

6. Southpaw

Predicted Gross: $12.9 milion

Box Office Results (July 17-19)

Disney/Marvel once again saw its product debut at #1, but Ant-Man managed just the 11th highest opening in their 12 film Marvel Cinematic Universe (only 2008’s The Incredible Hulk started lower). The Paul Rudd pic grossed $57.2 million, well under my $73.3M estimate. Still, expectations were not quite as sky high for this entry and it represents a decent gross, albeit on the lower end of the scale.

Minions dropped to second with $49.2 million, under my $56.9M prediction. The Despicable Me spin-off has amassed $215 million in ten days.

Amy Schumer became a movie star over the weekend as her critically acclaimed Trainwreck posted a fantastic $30 million opening, just ahead of my $27.8M projection. As mentioned, I anticipate solid word of mouth to keep this chugging along over the next couple of weekends.

Pixar’s Inside Out was fourth with $11.5 million (I said $10.5M) for a total of $306 million while Jurassic World was fifth with $11.4 million (I said $11.1M) for an amazing $611 million current gross.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Trainwreck Movie Review

In the past decade, we’ve witnessed Judd Apatow bring the best out of his comedic performers and vault them into big screen stardom. This has occurred in films he’s directed and produced. Steve Carell in The 40-Year-Old Virgin. Seth Rogen in Knocked Up. Kristin Wiig and Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids. It happens again in a major way with Trainwreck, which announces stand up comedian and star of her acclaimed Comedy Central program Amy Schumer as a force onscreen.

Simply out, Amy’s got the It Factor. The film (which she wrote, marking the first time Apatow isn’t directing his own material) allows her to showcase her already known comedy skills but also a surprising amount of depth with dramatic material. Trainwreck is both an anti romantic comedy and a very real one. Amy plays Amy, a writer for a trashy men’s magazine who grew with up a philandering and alcoholic dad (Colin Quinn) who preached his dislike for monogamy to Amy at an early age. Her younger sister (Brie Larson) didn’t get the memo and she’s living a suburban life with her sweater clad husband and stepson with a baby on the way. It’s an alien existence to Amy, who relishes her sexual freedom. She’s Daddy’s girl for certain.

An unwanted writing assignment gives her the task of profiling sports doctor Aaron (Bill Hader), medic to superstar athletes including his best bud Lebron James. Amy knows little about his field but soon does what she normally does and her one night stand with Aaron turns into something more. The two enter into a couple territory which petrifies her. He’s ready for it.

What follows is a pic that reverses the typical roles we’re used to seeing in the genre. Amy is more like the dude in this situation. Before her interaction with Aaron turns steady, this allows for some raunchy humor that we expect from the star and the director. A scene of dirty talk gone wrong with a Hulk like beau played by John Cena is a prime example.

Trainwreck, however, is often more serious than the trailers suggest. The subplots involving Amy’s family are treated with some somber undertones. A scene involving our central character at a funeral is wonderfully written and provides that aforementioned evidence of Schumer’s acting skills beyond  her ability to make us laugh.

The pic also provides more proof that Hader is a truly gifted performer and his chemistry with his costar is on point. Their union seems wholly believable and that’s a factor that’s sunk plenty of rom coms that fail. Not here at all.

Tilda Swinton is nearly unrecognizable as Amy’s shallow boss and she is given some amusing material to work with. The casting of Lebron could’ve felt purely like a gimmick, but his exaggerated version of playing himself (as a caring and sensitive cheapskate) is a trip.

This is ultimately Amy’s show though. Her screenplay’s mix of bawdiness with emotional substance usually plays well. There are times when the flaws of Apatow’s filmography creep in. Mainly, it could have certainly been about 20 minutes shorter (a staple with Judd). There’s also a bizarre film within a film displayed a couple times with Daniel Radcliffe and Marisa Tomei that adds nothing.

Where Trainwreck so often works is showcasing the real talent (in front of the camera and on the page) of its star. Schumer is satirizing the genre and also celebrating it, especially as it nears its conclusion. Like her relationship with Aaron, Trainwreck is a little bit messy. Like the character she plays, Trainwreck lacks a little bit of focus. It’s worth it in the end I must say. That applies to the union of our two lead cast members and the movie itself.

*** (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: July 17-19

Two new pictures look to make waves at the box office when they open this weekend: Marvel’s Ant-Man and the Judd Apatow directed Amy Schumer comedy Trainwreck. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

Ant-Man Box Office Prediction

Trainwreck Box Office Prediction

Ant-Man has a wide range of possibility for how it opens out of the gate. If it debuts on the low end of expectations (mid 5os), it could find itself playing runner-up to the second weekend of Minions. However, my projection has it reaching #1 fairly easily.

Minions could see its sophomore frame lose about half its audience after the massive premiere it achieved over the weekend. That should leave the critically acclaimed Trainwreck in third place with a projected healthy opening in line with what Bridesmaids accomplished four summers ago.

Blockbuster leftovers Jurassic World and Inside Out should round out the top five.

And with that, my top five projections for the weekend:

1. Ant-Man

Predicted Gross: $73.3 million

2. Minions

Predicted Gross: $56.9 million (representing a drop of 50%)

3. Trainwreck

Predicted Gross: $27.8 million

4. Jurassic World

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 39%)

5. Inside Out

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 40%)

Box Office Results (July 10-12)

As mentioned, the animated Despicable Me franchise spin-off Minions rocked the charts with $115.7 million, making it the second largest animated feature debut of all time (after Shrek the Third‘s $121.6M). This is well above my $96.4M prediction and finds this series in wonderful shape as it bodes very well for Despicable Me 3 in the summer of 2017.

Jurassic World was second with $18.1 million, edging my $16.3M estimate. The dino phenomenon stands at $590M domestically, good for fourth all time. Pixar’s Inside Out took third with $17.6 million, in line with my $17.3M projection and its total is at $284M.

In its second weekend, Terminator Genisys was fourth with $13.8 million, on target with my $14.5M projection. It’s made a middling $68M so far.

Horror flick The Gallows opened in fifth with a so-so $9.8 million, a touch above my $8.9M estimate while Magic Mike XXL was sixth in its sophomore engagement with $9.5 million, holding up considerably better than my $5.8M prediction. The sequel has taken in a less than expected $48M.

Finally, the Ryan Reynolds action thriller Self/less stumbled with an 8th place showing at just $5.4 million, well under my $9.7M prediction.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Trainwreck Box Office Prediction

Comedies from Spy to Entourage to Ted 2 have yet to become the breakout entry in the genre this summer and next Friday, Judd Apatow’s Trainwreck will throw its hat in the ring. The prospects for it are rather promising as the director has had a sterling track record in helping kick start the film careers of Steve Carell, Seth Rogen, and Kristin Wiig.

Trainwreck is the first major starring role for Amy Schumer, the popular standup who’s enjoyed critical acclaim with her Comedy Central show “Inside Amy Schumer”. The pic has an eclectic supporting cast that includes Bill Hader, Tilda Swinton, Brie Larson, John Cena, and, in his first movie role, NBA superstar Lebron James.

The early word is extremely positive and Trainwreck currently stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Looking over Apatow’s directorial resume, it would seem to stand a shot at earning his all-time record opening. In order to accomplish that, it’d need to surpass the $30.6 million made by Knocked Up eight summers ago. This is one comedy that could succeed in bringing in a male and female audience (on the male side, it probably doesn’t hurt that the pic was advertised heavily during the NBA Finals, when Mr. James was playing).

Ultimately, I think it will fall a bit short of Apatow’s best debut and open more in line with the Judd produced Bridesmaids, which took in $26.2M in the summer of 2011. Like that, this should do for Schumer what Bridesmaids did for Wiig – herald the announcement of a new comedic force on the silver screen.

Trainwreck opening weekend prediction: $27.8 million

For my Ant-Man prediction, click here:

Ant-Man Box Office Prediction

Summer 2015 Movies: The Predicted Century Club

The 2015 Summer Movie Season officially kicks off two weeks from today when Avengers: Age of Ultron blasts into theaters. It will compete for the largest domestic opening of all time (where it needs to beat its predecessor) and is highly likely to be the season’s highest earner. That got me to thinking – while Ultron is poised to gross $500 million or higher, it’s been the $100 million mark that studios still like to brag about. This prompted me to look at the past five summer flick seasons and how many pictures reached that milestone.

In 2010, it was 13 movies that reached the mark: Toy Story 3, Iron Man 2, Twilight Saga: Eclipse, Inception, Despicable Me, Shrek Forever After, The Karate Kid, Grown Ups, The Last Airbender, The Other Guys, Salt, Robin Hood, and The Expendables.

Things improved in 2011 with 18 films reaching the century club: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, The Hangover Part II, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Cars 2, Thor, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Captain America: First Avenger, The Help, Bridesmaids, Kung Fu Panda 2, X-Men: First Class, The Smurfs, Super 8, Horrible Bosses, Green Lantern, Bad Teacher, and Cowboys and Aliens.

The low mark was the following year in 2012 with just 12: The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, The Amazing Spider-Man, Brave, Ted, Madagascar 3, Men in Black 3, Ice Age: Continental Drift, Snow White and the Huntsman, Prometheus, Magic Mike, and The Bourne Legacy.

Yet the high mark came the following summer in 2013 with 19: Iron Man 3, Despicable Me 2, Man of Steel, Monsters University, Fast and Furious 6, Star Trek Into Darkness, World War Z, The Heat, We’re the Millers, The Great Gatsby, The Conjuring, Grown Ups 2, The Wolverine, Now You See Me, Lee Daniels’ The Butler, The Hangover Part III, Epic, Pacific Rim, and This is the End.

2014 dipped with 14: Guardians of the Galaxy, Transformers: Age of Extinction, Maleficent, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, 22 Jump Street, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Neighbors, Lucy, The Fault in Our Stars, and Edge of Tomorrow. 

That averages out to 15 pictures earning $100M plus per summer over this decade.

So where do I have 2015 matching up? Not breaking records, but in good shape. My predictions for the year’s $100M earners is 16 and they are as follows (in order of release date): Avengers: Age of Ultron, Mad Max: Fury Road, Pitch Perfect 2, Tomorrowland, San Andreas, Spy, Jurassic World, Inside Out, Ted 2, Magic Mike XXL, Terminator: Genisys, Minions, Ant-Man, Trainwreck, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, and Fantastic Four. 

Of course, there’s always sleepers. And there’s others that I could have predicted but think will fall short: the Reese Witherspoon/Sofia Vergara comedy Hot Pursuit, horror remake Poltergeist, the film version of Entourage, the Adam Sandler video game inspired action comedy Pixels, the Vacation reboot, and the NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton are among them.

As predicted, summer 2015 should see its number of century club inductees on the slightly high end without reaching the heights of 2013. And as always, you’ll see box office predictions every Saturday from me on each and every one of ’em!