Tag: Toronto Film Festival

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.

We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days.

It begins with Supporting Actor. When I gave you my first picks in 2024, it yielded one eventual nominee. That happened to be the winner with Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. Under the 10 other possibilities, I correctly called another contender in Culkin’s Succession costar Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice). Yura Borisov (Anora), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), and Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) were not identified at this early juncture.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor. And there will be movies were not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

This premiere post projects that Colman Domingo will earn his third nod in as many years after lead actor attempts for Rustin and Sing Sing as troubled Jackson family patriarch Joseph in Michael. We could also see Star Wars legend Mark Hamill nab a slot for Toronto Film Festival Audience winner The Life of Chuck and Adam Sandler see his first recognition for Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly.

Here’s the first snapshot with Supporting Actress up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Colman Domingo, Michael

Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt

Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Other Possibilities:

Joe Alwyn, Hamnet

Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

Brendan Fraser, Pressure

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

LaKeith Stanfield, Die, My Love

Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere

Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

Oscar Predictions: The Assessment

After being screened at the Toronto Film Festival in September, Fleur Fortuné’s sci-fi debut The Assessment hit stateside multiplexes last weekend. Elizabeth Olsen and Himesh Patel play a couple in a near future where prospective parents must be tested to raise children. Alicia Vikander, who won a Supporting Actress Academy Award a decade ago for The Danish Girl, plays the title role. Indira Varma, Nicholas Pinnock, and Minnie Driver offer support.

Distributed by Magnolia Pictures, The Assessment is at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes with a weaker 64 Metacritic. It was released across the pond and at the British Independent Film Awards, received three nods including Vikander in Lead Actress, Debut Screenwriter, and Production Design. Don’t expect this to blossom into a major contender in the U.S. with the Academy, though the Indie Spirits could assess it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: On Swift Horses

Daniel Minahan is primarily known for his TV directorial work on Deadwood, Games of Thrones, and House of Cards. His efforts move to the big screen on April 25th with On Swift Horses. The period piece romantic drama stars Daisy Edgar-Jones of Where the Crawdads Sing fame and Saltburn‘s Jacob Elordi. Supporting players include Will Poulter, Diego Calva, and Sasha Calle.

Horses was first seen at the Toronto Film Festival last fall with Sony Pictures Classics snatching up distribution rights. There’s praise for the leads, production design, and cinematography. Yet the 67% Rotten Tomatoes meter and nearly identical 68 on Metacritic indicates the mixed reaction. Considering that coupled with the spring release date, don’t expect this to win, place, or show on the 2025 awards calendar. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Riff Raff

Dito Montiel directs the crime comedy Riff Raff, premiering this weekend from Roadside Attractions. Jennifer Coolidge, Ed Harris (pulling double duty with My Dead Friend Zoe out this frame), Gabrielle Union, Lewis Pullman, Pete Davidson, and Bill Murray make up the impressive cast.

It originally debuted at the Toronto Film Festival last fall to mixed notices. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 55% with 45 on Metacritic. This certainly isn’t an Academy play, but better reviews could’ve put this in contention at the Globes next year in the Musical or Comedy derbies. The so-so buzz eliminates that possibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Bring Them Down

Christopher Andrews makes his directorial debut with the thriller Bring Them Down, out this weekend in limited fashion. Described as a grim and violent exercise, Down was first screened at Toronto last year (and then London) with Mubi handling distribution rights. Barry Keoghan and Christopher Abbott headline with Nora-Jane Noone, Paul Ready, Aaron Heffernan, and Colm Meany in support.

The 88% Rotten Tomatoes is tempered by the 59 on Metacritic. Plenty of kudos is going to the two leads, but the reaction doesn’t appear strong enough for Keoghan to get his second nod after The Banshees of Inisherin or Abbott to garner his first. This applies to any other category as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Fire Inside Box Office Prediction

Amazon MGM is hoping moviegoers choose to spend some time with The Fire Inside this Christmas. The true-life sports drama stars Ryan Destiny as boxer Claressa “T-Rex” Shields as she trains for the 2012 Summer Olympics with Brian Tyree Henry as her coach. Rachel Morrison directs with a script from Moonlight Oscar winner Barry Jenkins, who currently has Mufasa: The Lion King in multiplexes.

Inside first screened at the Toronto Film Festival to some knockout reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 96% with 78 on Metacritic. Said to be a crowdpleaser, I’m a bit perplexed by the lack of marketing. Perhaps this will surprise, but I think its five-day holiday earnings ring up less than $5 million.

The Fire Inside opening weekend prediction: $2.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Nosferatu prediction, click here:

Nosferatu Box Office Prediction

For my A Complete Unknown prediction, click here:

A Complete Unknown Box Office Prediction

For my Babygirl prediction, click here:

Babygirl Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: The Return

Out in limited fashion today, The Return reimagines no less than Homer’s Odyssey with Uberto Pasolini directing. The Bleecker Street release premiered at the Toronto Film Festival and it reunites Ralph Fiennes and Juliette Binoche, stars of 1996’s Best Picture winner The English Patient. Charlie Plummer, Tom Rhys Harries, and Marwan Kenzari provide support.

Reviews are respectful with 77% on Rotten Tomatoes and 68 on Metacritic. As expected, praise for the leads are present with some complaints about pacing. Fiennes is in the 2024 Best Actor mix, but not for this. His performance in Conclave is expected to earn him a slot. Don’t expect any noms or buzz to greet The Return at this late stage in the awards calendar. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Girl with the Needle

The Academy voters have been very tolerant of the Dutch in the 21st century when it comes to the International Feature Film race. Two of their submitted features – 2010’s In a Better World and 2020’s Another Round – won the prize. Six more were nominated: 2006’s After the Wedding, 2012’s A Royal Affair and The Hunt from 2013, A War in 2015, 2016’s Land of Mine, and 2021’s Flee.

Denmark has chosen the black & white historical true crime thriller The Girl with the Needle as their horse for IFF. From director Magnus von Horn, it premiered at Cannes before playing in Toronto. Vic Carmen Sonne and Trine Dyrholm star. Hitting the coasts on December 6th, Needle drew positive fest reactions with 91% on Rotten Tomatoes and 82 on Metacritic.

As I’ve mentioned previously on posts covering submissions in this competition, there are three assumed frontrunners in Emilia Pérez, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, and I’m Still Here. Based on its country’s recent track record, Needle is certainly a possibility to fill one of the other two slots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Heretic Box Office Prediction

A24 is hoping audiences make some noise for Heretic when it debuts November 8th. The horror thriller comes from Scott Beck and Bryan Woods, who wrote the blockbuster A Quiet Place and recently directed the megaflop 65. Sophie Thatcher and Chloe East costar as Mormon missionaries who knock on Hugh Grant’s wrong door.

Critics opened up to Heretic upon its screening at the Toronto Film Festival. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a certified fresh 95% with Metacritic at 71. Moviegoers have had plenty of scary material to feast on in 2024 and that could limit its potential. I could see a start in the $11.5 million range that Speak No Evil managed in September.

Heretic opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million

For my The Best Christmas Pageant Ever prediction, click here:

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions – Elton John: Never Too Late

Disney hopes that Elton John: Never Too Late is still standing among the five nominees for Documentary Feature come Oscar nomination time. Chronicling the legendary singer’s swan song concert tour, R.J. Cutler and Elton’s husband David Furnish direct. A November 15th limited theatrical release precedes the December 13th Disney+ streaming launch.

Co-director Cutler is no stranger to the celeb doc genre or awards attention. 1993’s The War Room about Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign was a nominee in the race. He also helmed 2021’s Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry and the upcoming Martha Stewart profile Martha (look for that Oscar Prediction post shortly).

Late started its screenings at the Toronto Film Festival. While mostly fresh, many reviews were far from gushing. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 71%. That’s probably not enough to land it a nomination or even to be on the shortlist.

Where this could pop up is in Original Song where the new track “Never Too Late” (a duet between Elton and Brandi Carlile) reportedly plays over the end credits. The movie’s subject is already a two-time Academy winner for his The Lion King and Rocketman ditties. His star power could get him in contention again though I’ve yet to predict it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…