Dito Montiel directs the crime comedy Riff Raff, premiering this weekend from Roadside Attractions. Jennifer Coolidge, Ed Harris (pulling double duty with My Dead Friend Zoe out this frame), Gabrielle Union, Lewis Pullman, Pete Davidson, and Bill Murray make up the impressive cast.
It originally debuted at the Toronto Film Festival last fall to mixed notices. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 55% with 45 on Metacritic. This certainly isn’t an Academy play, but better reviews could’ve put this in contention at the Globes next year in the Musical or Comedy derbies. The so-so buzz eliminates that possibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Christopher Andrews makes his directorial debut with the thriller Bring Them Down, out this weekend in limited fashion. Described as a grim and violent exercise, Down was first screened at Toronto last year (and then London) with Mubi handling distribution rights. Barry Keoghan and Christopher Abbott headline with Nora-Jane Noone, Paul Ready, Aaron Heffernan, and Colm Meany in support.
The 88% Rotten Tomatoes is tempered by the 59 on Metacritic. Plenty of kudos is going to the two leads, but the reaction doesn’t appear strong enough for Keoghan to get his second nod after The Banshees of Inisherin or Abbott to garner his first. This applies to any other category as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Amazon MGM is hoping moviegoers choose to spend some time with The Fire Inside this Christmas. The true-life sports drama stars Ryan Destiny as boxer Claressa “T-Rex” Shields as she trains for the 2012 Summer Olympics with Brian Tyree Henry as her coach. Rachel Morrison directs with a script from Moonlight Oscar winner Barry Jenkins, who currently has Mufasa: The Lion King in multiplexes.
Inside first screened at the Toronto Film Festival to some knockout reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 96% with 78 on Metacritic. Said to be a crowdpleaser, I’m a bit perplexed by the lack of marketing. Perhaps this will surprise, but I think its five-day holiday earnings ring up less than $5 million.
The Fire Inside opening weekend prediction: $2.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Out in limited fashion today, The Return reimagines no less than Homer’s Odyssey with Uberto Pasolini directing. The Bleecker Street release premiered at the Toronto Film Festival and it reunites Ralph Fiennes and Juliette Binoche, stars of 1996’s Best Picture winner The English Patient. Charlie Plummer, Tom Rhys Harries, and Marwan Kenzari provide support.
Reviews are respectful with 77% on Rotten Tomatoes and 68 on Metacritic. As expected, praise for the leads are present with some complaints about pacing. Fiennes is in the 2024 Best Actor mix, but not for this. His performance in Conclave is expected to earn him a slot. Don’t expect any noms or buzz to greet The Return at this late stage in the awards calendar. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Academy voters have been very tolerant of the Dutch in the 21st century when it comes to the International Feature Film race. Two of their submitted features – 2010’s In a Better World and 2020’s Another Round – won the prize. Six more were nominated: 2006’s After the Wedding, 2012’s A Royal Affair and The Hunt from 2013, A War in 2015, 2016’s Land of Mine, and 2021’s Flee.
Denmark has chosen the black & white historical true crime thriller The Girl with the Needle as their horse for IFF. From director Magnus von Horn, it premiered at Cannes before playing in Toronto. Vic Carmen Sonne and Trine Dyrholm star. Hitting the coasts on December 6th, Needle drew positive fest reactions with 91% on Rotten Tomatoes and 82 on Metacritic.
As I’ve mentioned previously on posts covering submissions in this competition, there are three assumed frontrunners in Emilia Pérez, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, and I’m Still Here. Based on its country’s recent track record, Needle is certainly a possibility to fill one of the other two slots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A24 is hoping audiences make some noise for Heretic when it debuts November 8th. The horror thriller comes from Scott Beck and Bryan Woods, who wrote the blockbuster A Quiet Place and recently directed the megaflop 65. Sophie Thatcher and Chloe East costar as Mormon missionaries who knock on Hugh Grant’s wrong door.
Critics opened up to Heretic upon its screening at the Toronto Film Festival. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a certified fresh 95% with Metacritic at 71. Moviegoers have had plenty of scary material to feast on in 2024 and that could limit its potential. I could see a start in the $11.5 million range that Speak No Evil managed in September.
Heretic opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million
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Disney hopes that Elton John: Never Too Late is still standing among the five nominees for Documentary Feature come Oscar nomination time. Chronicling the legendary singer’s swan song concert tour, R.J. Cutler and Elton’s husband David Furnish direct. A November 15th limited theatrical release precedes the December 13th Disney+ streaming launch.
Co-director Cutler is no stranger to the celeb doc genre or awards attention. 1993’s The War Room about Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign was a nominee in the race. He also helmed 2021’s Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry and the upcoming Martha Stewart profile Martha (look for that Oscar Prediction post shortly).
Late started its screenings at the Toronto Film Festival. While mostly fresh, many reviews were far from gushing. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 71%. That’s probably not enough to land it a nomination or even to be on the shortlist.
Where this could pop up is in Original Song where the new track “Never Too Late” (a duet between Elton and Brandi Carlile) reportedly plays over the end credits. The movie’s subject is already a two-time Academy winner for his The Lion King and Rocketman ditties. His star power could get him in contention again though I’ve yet to predict it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
StudioCanal is counting on audiences making time for We Live in Time when it expands nationwide on October 18th. The romantic drama from Brooklyn director John Crowley stars Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh with a supporting cast including Adam James, Marama Corlett, and Aoime Hinds.
Critics were mostly on its side after its Toronto Film Festival premiere last month. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 79% with 61 on Metacritic. If this was based on source material like a bestselling novel, I might be more optimistic with Time. Awards buzz would also help and that doesn’t appear to be the case.
Unless a sizable female crowd turns up, mid single digits is the likely number.
We Live in Time opening weekend prediction: $4.3 million
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Focus Features hopes that audiences will be happy to attend Piece by Piece when it assembles in theaters October 11th. This is quite the interesting mashup of genres. From documentarian Morgan Neville, it is a biopic of music producer Pharrell Williams of the Neptunes told through Lego animation. Besides the central character, his musician friends Gwen Stefani, Kendrick Lamar, Timbaland, Justin Timberlake, Busta Rhymes, Jay-Z, Daft Punk, and Snoop Dogg lend their voices to the project.
After its premiere at Telluride, Piece generated mostly complimentary reaction. The RT score is 91% with Metacritic at 64. I’m not sure the reviews are strong enough that this will compete for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars.
With no significant buzz awards wise or elsewhere, I wonder who turns up for this. This isn’t really geared towards kids (and they could still be preoccupied with The Wild Robot). Adults aren’t likely clamoring for a Lego themed doc about the producer of “Hollaback Girl” and “Drop It Like It’s Hot”.
If this managed higher single digits for starters, Focus should consider it a victory. Slated for 1800 screens, I don’t think it gets there.
Piece by Piece opening weekend prediction: $5.4 million
Kiyoshi Kurosawa (no relation to Akira) premiered his latest feature Cloud at the Venice Film Festival and he’s had good luck there before. His 2020 effort Wife of a Spy took the Silver Lion (equivalent to Best Director). This psychological thriller is garnering mostly decent reviews and Japan has selected it as their pick for International Feature Film.
The nation has seen a handful of their selections nominated for the prize in the 21st century. That includes two winners (2008’s Departures, 2021’s Drive My Car) in addition to 2003’s The Twilight Samurai, 2018’s Shoplifters, and Perfect Days from last year.
With 83% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 70 Metacritic score, I’m not confident the acclaim is strong enough for Japan to make the race this time. If Cloud manages to make the shortlist, however, it could sneak in. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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