In 2016, Theodore Melfi’s Hidden Figures earned a Best Picture nomination. Melissa McCarthy is the beneficiary of two Oscar nods – one for her supporting comedic work in Bridesmaids ten years back and for her more dramatic turn in lead actress with 2018’s Can You Ever Forgive Me?
So on paper, The Starling might have some Academy cred. The dramedy premieres on Netflix September 24 and has screened in Toronto. Casting McCarthy as a grief stricken woman also dealing with the pesky title character, reviews are out. Several critics are downright negative. The Rotten Tomatoes score is perched at only 33%.
McCarthy has appealed to awards voters with her performances on the funny and serious side. This mix of the two won’t fly with them. My Oscar Watch posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
**Blogger’s Note (09/16): On the eve of its premiere, it seems this is opening in a more limited fashion than I originally thought. Therefore my estimate is revised down from $3.4 million to $1.7 million.
Fresh off its Toronto Film Festival premiere yesterday, The Eyes of Tammy Faye makes its way to multiplexes on Friday. From director Michael Showalter (best known for The Big Sick), the biopic of televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker is already generating Oscar buzz for Jessica Chastain. Andrew Garfield plays hubby Jim with a supporting cast including Vincent D’Onofrio and Cherry Jones.
Reviews for the film itself are decent (it’s at 70% on Rotten Tomatoes). Eyes is not available on any streaming service. The theatrical only output presents one current challenge for this estimator. I have yet to see a screen count and that makes projecting an opening gross challenging.
I may well revise this prediction when I do see some numbers, but a baseline in the $3-4 million range sounds reasonable at the moment.
The Eyes of Tammy Faye opening weekend prediction: $1.7 million
The Best Actress race just got more interesting and we can thank Jessica Chastain for that. Michael Showalter’s The Eyes of Tammy Faye has emerged from the Toronto Film Festival. While the reviews for the film are mixed, Chastain’s performance as Tammy Faye Bakker is drawing raves.
Based on a 2000 documentary, this dramatized bio of the extreme makeup wearing televangelist and her husband Jim (Andrew Garfield) has never been pegged as much of a Best Picture contender. The critical reaction confirms that. Mr. Garfield is getting some solid notices. I question whether he gains traction in the acting derby. He’ll have another shot in 2021 with the as yet unseen Tick, Tick… Boom! If that one doesn’t materialize, Searchlight could push him in supporting.
Chastain is another story with her viability. She appears firmly in line for her third nomination. The first was in 2011 in supporting for The Help. Her second came the next year in lead for Zero Dark Thirty. Not only does she seem headed for Oscar recognition, she could be a threat to win. In other words, we may not want to crown Kristen Stewart (Spencer) the victor yet.
Makeup and Hairstyling is another obvious race where this could get in. Perhaps the gaudy 80s fashion will be noticed for Costume Design.
Bottom line: a couple of weeks back, I boldly declared that you could write Kristen Stewart’s Best Actress inclusion in pen. Here we go again for the second pronouncement… I think you can do the same with Chastain. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
With the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals having just wrapped and Toronto going strong, there are fresh updates to my Oscar predictions in every category but Director!
Of course, the big question from the past week might be: Will a movie with the word “pizza” in it finally get a Best Picture nomination? That’s more possible than ever since Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest (which had the working title Soggy Bottom) is now apparently called Licorice Pizza. It makes perfect sense if you research the setting.
It’ll be a while before we know how much of a contender that one actually is. There is some movement based on actual buzz and it starts with Stephen Karam’s The Humans, which has screened at Toronto. I believe it could make the BP cut and I’ve got it in. I’m also returning West Side Story to the top ten. Dropping out are CODA and King Richard, though either could certainly find themselves back in the mix.
In other developments:
Penelope Cruz’s Venice win for Best Actress gets her back in the top five. Falling out is Jennifer Hudson for Respect.
I now have Bradley Cooper as a double nominee. In addition to him maintaining the top spot in Supporting Actor for Pizza (that’s gonna take some getting used to), he’s listed in Actor for Nightmare Alley. He takes the place of Adam Driver in House of Gucci.
With category placement still in flux for certain pics, I’ve chosen to put the ensemble for Belfast all in supporting. That means Caitriona Balfe is in for Supporting Actress over her costar Judi Dench. I’m also elevating Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans) and dropping Marlee Matlin (CODA). Furthermore, I have Frances McDormand moved to supporting from lead and she sits just on the outside at #6. Kirsten Dunst takes over the #1 position over Ann Dowd in Mass.
Jamie Dornan (Belfast) also enters the competition in supporting instead of lead, but he’s not in my five. There is one change: Jason Isaacs (Mass) over Jared Leto (House of Gucci).
C’Mon C’Mon gets the 5th slot in Original Screenplay over Spencer. And Belfast is now listed first instead of Pizza.
In Adapted Screenplay, The Humans and The Lost Daughter make the cut over The Tragedy of Macbeth and CODA. The latter did not have a good week as you can see (dropping out of Picture, Supporting Actress, and here).
We are mere hours away from knowing whether Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) deserves her #3 placement in Actress. Those developments and more will be available when I update next Sunday. Until then, you can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 2)
4. Belfast (PR: 4)
5. Dune (PR: 6)
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) – formerly Soggy Bottom
8. West Side Story (PR: 11)
9. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8)
10. The Humans (PR: 14)
Other Possibilities:
11. CODA (PR: 10)
12. King Richard (PR: 9)
13. The Hand of God (PR: 17)
14. Mass (PR: 12)
15. Spencer (PR: 13)
16. The French Dispatch (PR: 19)
17. Flee (PR: 16)
18. A Hero (PR: 15)
19. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 20)
20. The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Passing (PR: 24)
22. Being the Ricardos (PR: 22)
23. Cyrano (PR: 18)
24. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 25)
25. Parallel Mothers (PR: 23)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3)
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 5)
5. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 6)
7. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7)
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 10)
9. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8)
10. Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (PR: 15)
11. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 9)
12. Stephen Karam, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 13)
14. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 11)
15. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Sian Heder, CODA
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristin Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1)
2. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 2)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3)
4. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6)
5. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5)
7. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 11)
8. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 15)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 13)
11. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 8)
12. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 12)
13. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 14)
14. Tessa Thompson, Passing (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Halle Berry, Bruised (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (moved to Supporting Actress)
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (moved to Supporting Actress)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5)
5. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7)
7. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6)
9. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 9)
10. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 10)
11. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 12)
12. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 13)
13. Filippo Scott, The Hand of God (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Simon Rex, Red Rocket (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Jamie Dornan, Belfast (moved to Supporting)
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
2. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)
4. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 6)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 4)
8. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 7)
9. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8)
10. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: 12)
11. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 3)
12. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10)
13. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 9)
14. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 11)
15. Dakota Johnson, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos
Olga Merediz, In the Heights
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1)
2. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 4)
3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 3)
4. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
5. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5)
7. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)
8. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7)
9. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 8)
10. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9)
11. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 13)
12. Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10)
13. David Alvarez, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Adapting his own Tony Award winning play, Stephen Karam’s The Humans has debuted at the Toronto Film Festival. The initial buzz is encouraging for Oscar consideration. A Thanksgiving drama that critics are already calling a different kind of horror experience, the ensemble includes Beanie Feldstein, Steven Yeun, Jayne Houdyshell, Richard Jenkins, Amy Schumer, and June Squibb.
Coming as no real surprise, it’s Houdyshell (the only holdover from Broadway) and Jenkins who stand the best shots at acting recognition. Jenkins is a two-time nominee (once in lead for 2008’s The Visitor and in supporting for 2017’s The Shape of Water). Houdyshell is a newcomer to the dance. Based on early chatter, I suspect both have excellent shots in their respective supporting fields.
It is possible that the dark material (even the praising write-ups call it cold) could prevent The Humans from reaching Picture. However, I feel better about its chances now that it’s screened. Same goes for Adapted Screenplay. If it really catches the fancy of the Academy, the leftover effect could even be Karam making a bid for his direction.
Bottom line: The Humans has put itself in contention for numerous races. My Oscar Predictions posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Eva Husson’s romantic British period piece Mothering Sunday sure looks like an awards contender on paper. Based on a 2016 novel by Graham Swift, the Lionsgate release (out stateside November 19) originally debuted at Cannes and has made its way to the Toronto Film Festival. Starring Odessa Young and Josh O’Connor, Sunday also features a trio of Oscar winner in its supporting cast (Olivia Colman, Colin Firth, Glenda Jackson).
Reviews thus far are pleasing with a 93% score on Rotten Tomatoes. Calling it a bleaker story set in a Downton Abbey world, this could find a niche audience. Yet even the positive critical reaction doesn’t indicate to me that it will resonate with the Academy. Competition could simply be too steep to make a play in the major races like Picture or Adapted Screenplay. Furthermore it’s said the high-profile supporting cast may not receive enough screen time to contend. Don’t cry for Colman, however. She’s already in the mix in Best Actress for The Lost Daughter.
Bottom line: perhaps Sunday could pop up in Production or Costume Design (though I doubt it) and that’s about the best hope. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Despite numerous critically acclaimed performances, Jake Gyllenhaal has but one Oscar nomination to his credit in Supporting Actor for 2005’s Brokeback Mountain. On October 1, his crime thriller The Guilty streams on Netflix. Based on a heralded 2018 Danish pic, it has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival over the weekend.
Early reviews are decent at 73% on Rotten Tomatoes. Interestingly enough, some claim viewers may like it more if they haven’t seen the superior original. The Guilty is helmed by Antoine Fuqua, who directed Denzel Washington to a Best Actor win and Ethan Hawke to a Supporting Actor nod in 2001’s Training Day. Hawke costars here along with Riley Keough, Christina Vidal, Eli Goree, Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Paul Dano, and Peter Sarsgaard.
In 2014, Gyllenhaal was snubbed (in the opinion of many, including this blogger) for Nightcrawler. More recently, the Academy bypassed his leading roles in Nocturnal Animals and Stronger. The Toronto verdict indicates that nomination #2 probably isn’t coming with The Guilty. My Oscar Predictions posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Ben Platt has won a Tony, Emmy, and Grammy for his performance in the Broadway sensation Dear Evan Hansen. The cinematic version of the play comes from director Stephen Chbosky, best known for 2012’s acclaimed The Perks of Being a Wallflower and 2017’s hit Wonder.
Hansen has opened the Toronto Film Festival with Platt reprising his role. Costars include Amy Adams, Julianne Moore, and Kaitlyn Dever. The teen musical drama (where the 27-year-old Platt is a teen) is drawing wildly mixed reactions from critics – as evidence by its current 50% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Some are being kind while others are excoriating it.
That’s not a recipe for Oscars attention as I see it. Simply stated, its detractors should be loud enough to keep this out of contention. One possible exception could be a couple of original songs.
Bottom line: Platt’s EGOT is highly unlikely to happen with Hansen. My Oscar prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Where to even begin? It’s been 11 days since I updated my Oscar predictions (a longer break than normal) but there’s good reason. A lot has transpired since then. That would be the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals where numerous contenders have been unveiled.
That means there are significant changes in all of the 8 major races that I’m currently forecasting. Let us count the ways:
Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog was certainly one of the most awaited arrivals. Before Venice, I had it placed #1 in Picture, Director, and Actor (Benedict Cumberbatch). The reviews do not automatically indicate it will win the prize. However, they were enough raves that I have not moved it out of the top spot in Picture and Director. Yet there is a new #1 in Actor…
That would be Will Smith in King Richard. While Cumberbatch only slips to #2, the reaction to Smith’s work has me thinking a narrative could develop where he sweeps the season.
Richard also moves into the top ten in my Best Picture rankings. So does Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast, another major story of the past few days. I didn’t have the black and white period drama getting any nods a week and a half ago. It’s now listed in Picture, Director, Supporting Actress (Judi Dench), Supporting Actor (Ciaran Hinds), and Original Screenplay. There is a question with how the studio will figure out placement for its ensemble. I currently have Caitriona Balfe and Jamie Dornan as possibilities in the lead derbies with both falling short.
The two newcomers in Best Picture takes out West Side Story and The Hand of God. Branagh’s rise in Director removes Joel Coen (The Tragedy of Macbeth).
In Actress, the festival praise for Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) has me thinking she’s in at this juncture. Falling off the top five: Frances McDormand in The Tragedy of Macbeth. I nearly put McDormand in Supporting Actress and I wouldn’t be surprised if she contends there instead.
Another development in Actress is the vaulting of Kristen Stewart (Spencer) to the #1 slot over Lady Gaga (House of Gucci). The Venice love indicates she’s the strong frontrunner to win gold.
Peter Dinklage’s title role as Cyrano makes the top five in Actor to the detriment of Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up).
Judi Dench’s inclusion in Belfast for Supporting Actress has Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans) on the outside looking in. I desperately wanted to put Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) in the five and wouldn’t be surprised if she makes it in soon. I just couldn’t decide who to take out.
There are two changes in Supporting Actor. The Power of the Dog buzz provided a bit of a shocker. Kodi Smit-McPhee appears to hold a better chance at getting in over Jesse Plemons (who falls out of the mix). Also, the addition of Ciaran Hinds removes Corey Hawkins (The Tragedy of Macbeth). For those keeping score, that’s two Supporting Actor hopefuls in the five that weren’t even ranked 11 days ago.
In Original Screenplay, it’s Belfast and Spencer in and The French Dispatch (whose fortunes are falling in my opinion) and The Hand of God out. In Adapted Screenplay, I have put CODA back in (sorry to The Humans… which we’ll know more about when it debuts in days up in Toronto).
Whew. Got all that? You can peruse all the movement below. And you can bet that I’ll be posting about all the fresh updates from Toronto. Until then…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
4. Belfast (PR: 14)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
6. Dune (PR: 7)
7. Soggy Bottom (PR: 5)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6)
9. King Richard (PR: 21)
10. CODA (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
11. West Side Story (PR: 8)
12. Mass (PR: 13)
13. Spencer (PR: 17)
14. The Humans (PR: 11)
15. A Hero (PR: 15)
16. Flee (PR: 16)
17. The Hand of God (PR: 10)
18. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
19. The French Dispatch (PR: 12)
20. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 19)
21. The Last Duel (PR: 20)
22. Being the Ricardos (PR: 24)
23. Parallel Mothers (PR: 22)
24. Passing (PR: 23)
25. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 25)
Dropped Out:
Last Night in Soho
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 5)
4. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 12)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
8. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
9. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 15)
10. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 9)
11. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 10)
12. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 14)
14. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 13)
15. Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 4)
2. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 14)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6)
7. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2)
8. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 7)
9. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 8)
11. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9)
12. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 12)
13. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10)
14. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 11)
15. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Halle Berry, Bruised
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 3)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2)
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 14)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6)
8. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7)
9. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 9)
10. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 8)
11. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 11)
13. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 10)
14. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 13)
15. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Steven Yeun, The Humans
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 11)
4. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 3)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 5)
7. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 15)
8. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6)
9. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 10)
10. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9)
11. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 8)
12. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7)
13. Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos (PR: 13)
14. Olga Merediz, In the Heights (PR: 12)
15. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca Ferguson, Dune
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: Not Ranked)
For those who don’t follow the Oscar game and film festivals like I do (which is understandably most of you), this post looks to be a helpful primer on why such festivals are so important when doing predictions.
The 2021 Venice Film Festival kicks off tomorrow and you can anticipate plenty of Oscar speculation chatter on the blog in the next several days. You may ask – why is this Italian extravaganza so key in determining how this year’s awards landscape may look?
Let’s look at just the past five years as prologue. Of the 43 features nominated for Best Picture from 2016-2020, 31 were originally screened at the various high-profile festivals. There were six from Sundance and four each premiered at Telluride, Toronto and Cannes (with one emanating from the New York Film Festival). Eleven had their start in Venice. That’s right. Essentially one in four. That means that, lately, the average year has seen two to three BP nominees coming from this one event.
Of the last five Best Picture winners, all of them kicked off at a festival. 1 from Telluride (Moonlight). 1 from Toronto (Green Book). 1 from Cannes (Parasite). Two from Venice: The Shape of Water and last year’s Nomadland.
How about the acting derbies? Of the 20 winners in Actor, Actress, and the supporting fields from 2016-2020, only two were performances that did not come from a festival screened film. There’s 1 from Cannes. Three each from Telluride and Toronto. Four from Sundance. And seven from Venice.
This is why the titles hitting Venice in 2021 currently hold lofty positions with prediction makers like myself. It’s why Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog took over House of Gucci (not currently slated for a fest) at the #1 slot in my BP rankings. This explains why I’m keeping a close eye on pics like Dune, The Hand of God, Parallel Mothers, Spencer, and Last Night in Soho. Maybe Spencer won’t win Best Picture, but it could nab Kristen Stewart her first nomination and victory.
Of course, only the screenings themselves will demonstrate the viable contenders. Yet there’s a recent history proving that Venice has become the most important festival of all. Ask the makers of Nomadland and The Shape of Water. Or Emma Stone (La La Land), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), or Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) to name just some.
My coverage of the Venice Film Festival begins tomorrow!
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