Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution hopes to continue a banner year for anime offerings when it hits domestic venues on December 5th. The fantasy effort from manga artist Gege Akutami is a prerelease for season 3 of the Kaisen TV series prior to its output in January.
Distributed via GKIDS stateside, Execution would love to approach the numbers achieved by Jujutsu Kaisen 0 back in March of 2022. Nearly four years ago, that Japanese action tale easily surpassed projections with an $18 million debut in the midst of the pandemic. That opening represented over half of its eventual $33 million take as this genre is typically front loaded.
Execution will be available for home viewing just a month after theatrical availability. That’s different than Kaisen 0 which was not directly part of the TV show. Therefore Execution is not expected to see the high teens haul that we witnessed in 2022 or a similar figure that Chainsaw Man -The Movie: Reze Arc accomplished in October. It could still manage about half of what the aforementioned kicked off with, but I’ll go with a little less.
Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution opening weekend prediction: $6.4 million
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Scarlet is not a hip reimagining of the Clue vixen when she was a young woman (though I’d totally watch that). It’s the latest Japanese action fantasy from filmmaker Mamoru Hosoda. The Toho title has premiered in Venice with a release in its home country in November and awards qualifying run anticipated stateside via Sony.
In 2018, Hosoda’s Mirai was one of the five contenders for Best Animated Feature, ultimately losing to Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. Follow-up Belle, in 2021, failed to do the same despite fine critical reaction and impressive box office numbers.
There aren’t enough reviews on Scarlet yet for RT or Metacritic scores. However, the limited consensus thus far is that Scarlet is a bit of a letdown. That dynamic could shift as more feedback is available, but I’ve already seen enough to cast doubt that this is any threat to win Animated Feature and its nomination is certainly questionable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The animated Japanese superhero series My Hero Academia has made the bulk of its booty overseas, but performed admirably stateside. On October 11th comes the fourth feature You’re Next. Tensai Okamura takes over directorial duties with a voice cast including Daiki Yamashita, Nobuhiko Okamato, Yuki Kaji, Ayane Sakura, and Kaito Ishikawa.
Based on the manga series that kicked off in 2014, original cinematic franchise entry Two Heroes in 2018 had a limited theatrical release in the United States and Canada. In February 2020, sequel Heroes Rising earned $5.1 million for its start while October 2021’s World Heroes’ Mission upgraded a bit at $6.4 million.
We’ve had a longer layoff between parts three and four than any of the others. I doubt that will change the dynamic much and I foresee mid single digits as the best bet.
My Hero Academia: You’re Next opening weekend prediction: $5.9 million
Blogger’s Update (12/06): It appears The Boy and the Heron is opening on approximately 2100 screens. That is more than I assumed and my estimate rises from $3.8 million to $8 million
Legendary Japanese animator Hayao Miyazaki (of My Neighbor Totoro, Spirited Away, and Howl’s Moving Castle acclaim) came out of retirement to make The Boy and the Heron. It flies into North American venues on December 8th after robust business overseas. Unsurprisingly, critics are lauding it (97% RT score) as it might battle Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse at the Oscars. The fantasy arrives with a dubbed version for stateside crowds featuring the voices of Christian Bale, Dave Bautista, Gemma Chan, Willem Dafoe, Karen Fukuhara, Mark Hamill, Robert Pattinson, and Florence Pugh.
After debuting in Japan over the summer and expanding to other nations, it has made $83 million thus far. GKIDS is handling North American distribution and it is said to have the widest release in the studio’s history. That said, I’ve yet to see a theater count and that could alter my projection.
Miyazaki is a bigger draw elsewhere, but he certainly has his ardent fans here. Again, depending on the count, I can’t see this getting below $3 million. Earning over $5 million could be a chore.
The Boy and the Heron opening weekend prediction: $8 million
The title character may be 70 years old in cinematic time, but the creature is still wreaking havoc on the general public. The not so jolly green giant returns in Godzilla Minus One, out domestically December 1st. From acclaimed filmmaker Takashi Yamazaki, it arrives in stateside multiplexes a month after it premiered to impressive box office numbers in Japan. Runosuke Kamiki, Minami Hamabe, Yuki Yamada, and Munetaka Aoki star.
The 37th feature in the franchise, it’s getting some of the strongest reviews of the bunch. One was made to earn the bulk of its bucks overseas, but hardcore U.S. fans could get this in mid to high single digits. The best case scenario would probably be a gross approaching $10 million. I’ll say it doesn’t get there though I have it outdoing John Woo’s Silent Night (its direct competition).
Godzilla Minus One opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million
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The Super Mario Bros. Movie should rule the charts for a third weekend as Evil Dead Rise and Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant open in wide release. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Evil Dead Rise appears headed for a second place showing. However, the fifth pic in the horror franchise that started over 40 years ago is unlikely to match the mid-twenties haul that its 2013 predecessor managed. That’s despite strong reviews. Some recent horror saturation might mean a low to mid teens premiere.
As for Afghanistan War drama The Covenant with Jake Gyllenhaal, this is a genre that often struggles for eyeballs. It could certainly outpace my mid single digits projection (which should still be good for third), but my gut says this won’t impress.
Spots 4-8 should be holdovers whose difference could be less than a million bucks. I have John Wick: Chapter 4 leading that group with Renfield having the biggest percentage drop and coming in 8th.
Some other notes before I get to the power player. The historicaldrama Chevalier is slated to come out on around 1200 screens. I think the ceiling could be $2.5 million and I didn’t do an individual post for it.
Then there’s Beau is Afraid. Ari Aster’s three-hour opus with Joaquin Phoenix is garnering some raves and some derision from critics. It had a sizzling limited debut on only 4 screens. Beau is opening wider this weekend, but I’ve yet to see a theater count. Depending on how many venues it’s playing in, it could pop up in the top 5. However, I can’t make an educated guesstimate (yet) until I see a number. **Update (04/19): I’ve now done a prediction for this since a theater count is released:
As for the third frame of Mario, I’ve got it falling in the high 30s to low 40s for a mid to high 5os gross. My prediction gives it the ninth best third weekend of all time after it just had the seventh largest second one. I’ll give this caveat: I’ve been low for two weeks in a row on this pic.
So with all that said, here’s my look at the top 8:
1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Predicted Gross: $54.8 million
2. Evil Dead Rise
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million
3. Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
4. John Wick: Chapter 4
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
5. The Pope’s Exoricst
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
6. Air
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
**7. Beau is Afraid
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million (ADDED PREDICTION**)
8. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
9. Renfield
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
Box Office Results (April 14-16)
It’s a Nintendo Cinematic Universe and we’re just living in it as The Super Mario Bros. Movie once again exceeded expectations in its sophomore frame. Illumination’s animated phenomenon piped in another $92.3 million, far exceeding my $74.9 million take. The two-week tally is an astonishing $353 million. There is a real possibility that this could end up as the highest domestic grosser of 2023.
Russell Crowe’s horror tale The Pope’s Exorcist surprisingly was second with $9 million, edging past my $7.4 million forecast. With a reported $18 million budget, that’s not too shabby though hardly glorious.
John Wick: Chapter 4 was third with $8 million (in range with my $8.4 million call). It’s up to $160 million after 4 weeks.
Spooky comedy Renfield with Nicolas Cage as Dracula was anticipated to see second place, but it wasn’t to be. The fourth place showing at $8 million fell below my $12.2 million estimate. With a fairly sucky B- Cinemascore, look for it to fade quickly.
Air was fifth with $7.8 million in its second weekend. I thought it would hold better and went with $9.5 million. Nevertheless its $33 million total thus far is solid for an adult drama.
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves was sixth with $7.5 million (I said $6.9 million) for a so-so $74 million after three weeks.
Toho’s Japanese animated fantasy Suzume couldn’t live up to previous titles from the distributor. It was seventh with $5 million and I was more generous at $8.7 million.
I never did an official prediction for Mafia Mamma with Toni Collette, but I said the poorly reviewed comedy would be lucky to make $2 million. Well, I guess it was lucky because that’s exactly what it did for 8th.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…
***In the meantime, catch my weekly podcast talking box office at Movies at the Speed of Speculation (wherever you stream!).
Those animated Nintendo plumbers should dominate the box office once again after a massive Easter haul, but there are newcomers to ponder. We have horror comedy Renfield with Nicolas Cage and Nicholas Hoult, less funny horror tale The Pope’s Exorcist featuring Russell Crowe, and Japanese animated fantasy Suzume. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:
Nothing will approach the sophomore frame for The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which soared in its first five days of release (more on that below). The question is not whether it will remain #1 (it will easily), but how far it falls. With an A Cinemascore and no competition for families, I’ll say it drops in the 50% range.
Renfield is garnering pretty decent reviews and a double digits to low teens output should allow it to be the runner-up. Suzume is a little trickier. Other Toho titles have exceeded $10 million for their beginnings and this could do the same. I’m projecting it a tad under for a fourth place showing behind the sophomore weekend for Air (which should have a nice hold).
The Pope’s Exorcist is also a bit of a head scratcher. Horror flicks can certainly over perform and this did decent business overseas this past weekend. Yet with Renfield providing a diversion for eyeballs, this might not even make the top 5.
Finally, I’ll dispense with Mafia Mamma. This Bleecker Street comedy stars Toni Collette and seems to be flying far under the radar. I didn’t do an individual prognosis post for it and haven’t seen a screen count. Given the distributor’s lack of success with earlier projects, this might be lucky to hit $2 million. That would put it nowhere near the high five.
Given that numbers 3-7 especially could be close, I’ll give you my outlook for those spots:
1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Predicted Gross: $74.9 million
2. Renfield
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million
3. Air
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
4. Suzume
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
5. John Wick: Chapter 4
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
6. The Pope’s Exorcist
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
Box Office Results (April 7-9)
Illumination Entertainment doesn’t really miss when it comes to putting out animated blockbusters (think Despicable Me, Minions, Sing, The Secret Life of Pets franchises). Now they clearly have a host of Nintendo properties that will shower them with coins. The Super Mario Bros. Movie vastly exceeded expectations with $146.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $204.6 million since its Wednesday premiere. That is, to say the least, better than my respective estimates of $98.6 million and $137.7 million. The temperature was clearly right for its massive breakthrough performance as its global $377 million gross is the best ever for an animated feature.
John Wick: Chapter 4 stayed put in second with $14.4 million (on target with my $14.6 million call). The three-week total stands at $146 million.
Ben Affleck’s Air rode a wave of rising buzz to impressive numbers. It made $14.4 million for third with $20.2 million since its Wednesday start. The sports drama managed to top my takes which were $12.7 million and $18.9 million. As mentioned, this should hold up well in the coming weekends.
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves was the biggest victim of the Mario wave. In its second weekend, the adventure tumbled 63% to $13.8 million. I was more optimistic with $16.8 million. The ten-day domestic tally is $61 million as its future as a franchise is murky.
Scream VI was fifth with $3.4 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five as it crossed the century mark after five weeks with $103 million.
Finally,faith-based drama His Only Son failed to capitalize on the religious holiday with $2.8 million for sixth. I thought it might do a bit better in frame #2 and said $3.8 million. It’s made $10 million.
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Suzume is the latest animated fantasy from Makoto Shinkai, maker of 2019’s acclaimed Weathering with You. The Japanese production comes from Toho, the studio behind Godzilla and the Demon Slayer pics that have recently posted impressive grosses stateside.
In fact, Toho’s titles in the U.S. have started to develop a familiar pattern of front loaded hauls. In March of 2022, Jujutsu Kaisen 0 made over $17 million during its first frame. That ended up being over half of its eventual $33 million domestic take. Just last month, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village made off with $10.1 million in a special engagement sole weekend.
Like those efforts, Suzume has already made a killing in its home country. With over $100 million in the bank, it is the fourth highest grossing film in Japan from last year.
Opening on approximately 2000 screens, this could hit low double digits like Swordsmith. Compared with next weekend’s other newcomers, that would put it behind Renfield and perhaps ahead of The Pope’s Exorcist. I’m going to put it in higher single digits and that’s still in front of Exorcist.
A prequel to a popular Japanese animated manga series, Jujutsu Kaisen 0 arrives stateside March 18th. Directed by Sunghoo Park, the Toho produced action fantasy from creator Gege Akutami has already earned over $100 million internationally.
Toho, the studio that gave us Godzilla, has had domestic success with recent releases in the U.S. My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising took in just over $5 million in spring 2020 for its start. In October 2021, My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising generated a tad above $6 million. In lower and non My Hero Academia series comps, Monster Hunter from December 2020 took in $2.2 million out of the gate (at a time when theaters were operating at their most extreme levels of COVID incapacity). That north of $2 million tally actually made it #1. And then there’s Demon Slayer, which did incredible business in April 2021 with $21 million in its first weekend.
With The Batman poised to perch itself for a third frame at #1, Jujutsu should post a healthy second or third place showing (depending on how Uncharted holds). I don’t think it gets near Slayer numbers, but it could get to mid to high single digits or possibly more.
Jujutsu Kaisen 0 opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million
Just prior to the COVID era in February 2020, the second feature in the animated superhero franchise from Japan My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising took in $5.8 million at the domestic box office. From director Kenji Nagasaki, the Toho distributed pic placed fourth on the charts and ended its stateside run at $13.5 million.
On October 29th, the follow-up hits multiplexes. My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission debuted in its home country back in August. Earning $29 million, it became the highest grossing entry in the series thus far. Will American audiences turn out again?
I don’t see why not. This particular genre has a devoted fanbase that should show up in similar numbers to its predecessor. In fact, I suspect Heroes could outgross the competition (Last Night in Soho, Antlers) opening directly against it. I’ll give this third Mission a slight bump over what part II achieved.
My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission opening weekend prediction: $6.1 million
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