Tag: Toby Jones

Oscar Predictions: The Actor

A decade after co-directing the acclaimed stop-motion drama Anomalisa with Charlie Kaufman, Duke Johnson’s follow-up is The Actor (out tomorrow). Based on a 2010 novel from Donald E. Westlake, André Holland is the titular NYC performer stuck in Ohio with amnesia. The 1950s set Neon release costars Gemma Chan, May Calamawy, Asim Chaudhry, Joe Cole, Fabien Frankel, Toby Jones, and Tracey Ullman.

Once seen as a potential awards contender for 2024, The Actor is being unceremoniously put out in mid-March with little fanfare. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 87%, but Metacritic’s 63 illustrates the more divided nature of reviews. A once over of critical reaction indicates this is unlikely to be remembered by the Academy next year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Instigators

The Instigators is receiving a limited theatrical run this weekend before it comes to Apple TV on August 9th. The caper flick reunites Matt Damon with his The Bourne Identity director Doug Liman with Casey Affleck (who cowrote the screenplay) co-headlining. Hong Chau, Paul Walter Hauser, Michael Stuhlbarg, Ving Rhames, Alfred Molina (pulling double duty this weekend with Harold and the Purple Crayon), Toby Jones, Jack Harlow, and Ron Perlman are included in the supporting cast.

Any hope of a Good Will Hunting like awards run seem to be dashed. A better comp might be the similarly themed The Town from Damon’s Hunting cowriter and Casey’s older bro Ben Affleck. It scored a 92% RT rating and ended up with an Oscar nom for Jeremy Renner in Supporting Actor.

Critics are not taken with The Instigators as evidenced by the 45% RT rating. It is safe to say it won’t be stealing any nominations from awards voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Review

With James Mangold taking over directorial duties from Steven Spielberg and Harrison Ford now an octogenarian, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny risks ending the 42-year-old franchise as almost an afterthought. Luckily it manages to capture the Indy spirit in fits and starts. This is not the travesty that some in the social media spiral of spin will claim it is. For that matter, neither was 2008’s derided predecessor Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. That film, however, was a bit of a mess. Destiny is stronger though it does not match the quality of the deservedly storied trilogy from 1981-89.

To borrow a phrase from Brad Pitt in Inglourious Basterds, Indy’s gonna be doin’ one thing and one thing only… killin’ Nazis. At least that’s where we begin in a 1944 set prologue. Dr. Jones (de-aged by pretty effective visual effects) and colleague Basil Shaw (Toby Jones) are battling Hitler’s troops as they seek the Lance of Longinus (the weapon used to pierce Christ during the crucifixion). This turns out to be a fool’s errand. However, the archaeologists do come upon half of a dial invented by Archimedes that’s rumored to allow for time travel. Nazi physicist Jürgen Voller (Mads Mikkelsen) needs it to reverse his team losing the war. Yet the more youthful Indy manages to wrestle it away.

Flashing forward to 1969, the Professor is retiring from his teaching job. It seems the aging iconic action hero hung up the whip some time ago. His marriage to Marion (Karen Allen) is on the ropes and Jones seems destined for an uninspired last few years in a cramped NYC apartment. Enter Helena (Phoebe Waller-Bridge), his goddaughter to now deceased Basil. While Indy’s neighbors and the American people are preoccupied with the imminent moon landing, Helena wants her out of touch godfather dialed back into the dial business. She gets the reluctant retiree to don the fedora to find the other half. Her young sidekick Teddy (Ethann Isidore) is along for the ride. Voller, now living under an assumed named and working for NASA, hasn’t forgotten about it in the last quarter century as he and head henchman Klaber (Boyd Holbrook) attempt to forcefully retrieve it.

The globetrotting commences from NYC to Morocco and Greece and eventually some really unforeseen places. Just as Crystal Skull finally brought a Spielberg mainstay alien subplot to the Indy mix (to much derision, some warranted), Destiny gets the Marty/Doc Brown vibe happening. I won’t delve into the spoiler centric details, but I will say this. The ending portions may not work very well in execution, but it does continue this franchise’s tradition of giving us bonkers third acts. I’m just sayin’ you may need to do a series rewatch if you think Destiny‘s climax is too out there. This is not necessarily a bad thing.

As mentioned, there are frequent instances where this captures the mood of what we dug in the 1980s. I experienced it in a chase scene or two (one during a ticker tape parade is a highlight). I found Waller-Bridge to be a better partner in artifact retrieval than Shia LaBeouf’s Mutt from 15 years ago. Yes, the brief reappearance of Sallah from Raiders and Last Crusade (John Rhys-Davies) feels tacked on. The runtime can feel as exhausted as our title character these days. It is those old-timers that provide the most memorable parts whether it’s the John Williams score or Mr. Ford still nailing the gruff yet caring legend. Does the nostalgia feel forced at times? Sure. It’s still one small step up from when we last saw Indy.

*** (out of four)

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Box Office Prediction

Ahh, the 80s. It’s a decade where filmmakers (many of whom came of age at the time) are constantly prodding our nostalgic sensibilities. That’s when the Spielberg/Lucas collaborative trilogy of Raiders of the Lost Ark, Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, and Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade gave Harrison Ford another iconic role and moviegoers another classic franchise. In 2008, Ford donned the fedora again to more mixed results with Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. The 80s now describes the lead’s own age (he became an octogenarian last summer). Indy is back as James Mangold takes over directorial duties with Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, the time travel adventure that marks the fifth and last entry in the series. The Logan and Ford v Ferrari maker also has Karen Allen and John Rhys-Davies reprising their roles. Other supporting players include Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Mads Mikkelsen, Antonio Banderas, Toby Jones, Boyd Holbrook, and Ethann Isidore.

With a whopping budget reportedly approaching $300 million, Disney is banking on crowds of all ages making the multiplex trek. That’s not a sure thing as we all just witnessed The Flash go belly up. Destiny attempted to generate solid buzz when it premiered last month at the Cannes Film Festival. It might’ve had the opposite effect. Reviews were middling and it currently stands at just 59% on Rotten Tomatoes (the oft maligned Skull sits at 77%). Another factor is that younger viewers may not have the sentimentality for Indy that older ones hold.

Fifteen summers ago, Skull premiered on Thursday ahead of a long Memorial Day holiday weekend. It amassed over $150 million for the five-day haul. A three-day take of $100 million would be welcome news for the Mouse Factory. I’m skeptical if that’s achievable. In fact, I’m questioning whether it reaches the figure that shares Ford’s age. Anything under $80 million would certainly be considered a disappointment and that’s where I have this landing. In fact, I’m only going mid-6os for what would be considered a massive letdown.

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny opening weekend prediction: $65.3 million

For my Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken prediction, click here:

Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

At last year’s Cannes Film Festival, Top Gun: Maverick screened at Cannes and that premiere kicked off its soaring buzz. The eventual result was box office nearing $1.5 billion and six Oscar nominations (including Picture). Disney would love for a similar result with Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, the fifth adventure in a franchise that began with an iconic 80s classic.

Harrison Ford dons the fedora once again (and for the final time) 42 years after Raiders of the Lost Ark. Steven Spielberg has handed over directorial duties to James Mangold. Costars for the reported $300 million production include Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Mads Mikkelsen, Antonio Banderas, John Rhys-Davies (as series favorite Sallah), Shaunette Renée Wilson, Thomas Kretschmann, Toby Jones, Boyd Holbrook, and Ethann Isidore.

It’s been 15 years since previous entry Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (which was also unveiled in the south of France). Let’s catch up on the Academy’s history and their love for Dr. Jones (or lack thereof). Raiders, back in 1981, nabbed 8 nominations (including Picture and Director though not Actor for Ford). The win total was four (Art Direction, Film Editing, Score, Visual Effects). Three years later, Temple of Doom managed two mentions in Score and Visual Effects (winning the latter). 1989’s Last Crusade received three nods and took the now defunct Special Effects Editing race. In 2008, Skull was derided by many critics and filmgoers. It was blanked at the Oscars.

We are obviously very early when it comes to reviews for Destiny. However, signs are troubling. The Rotten Tomatoes score (based on 7 write-ups) is 43%. Social media reaction from those in attendance overseas is also quite mixed. A safe assumption is this won’t be the next Maverick. I suppose John Williams in Score or Sound or Visual Effects (though there are gripes about this digitization) is feasible. Another likely result is this ends up contending in the same number of competitions as its predecessor. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Tetris

Tetris is not your typical blockbuster based on a video game, but instead a look behind the curtain at the iconic creation which burst onto the scene in the late 80s. Jon S. Baird (who previously made Stan & Ollie) directs Taron Egerton as the Dutch inventor who must face off with Soviets in the Cold War era to bring it to the masses. Costars include Toby Jones, Nikita Yefremov, Roger Allam, and Anthony Boyle.

Apple TV begins airing this on March 31st after it premiered at South by Southwest. It would seem that a corresponding theatrical output is not occurring. That would mean game over for its Oscar prospects from the get-go. This makes sense given the 81% Rotten Tomatoes is solid though most reviews aren’t outright raves. The streamer is far more likely to concentrate on the upcoming Killers of the Flower Moon from Martin Scorsese and Ridley Scott’s Napoleon (and potentially others) anyway.

Even without the ineligibility factor, Tetris doesn’t seem to have the pieces put together for a legit campaign. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

**Blogger’s Note – shortly after posting, I was informed that this will have a limited L.A. theatrical run and is likely therefore eligible for consideration. It doesn’t change my underlying thoughts on the viability.

Oscar Predictions: The Pale Blue Eye

Scott Cooper’s The Pale Blue Eye opens in select theaters this weekend prior to its January 6th Netflix bow. Set in 1830, the mystery casts Christian Bale as a detective working alongside Harry Melling’s Edgar Allan Poe. The supporting cast includes Gillian Anderson, Lucy Boynton, Charlotte Gainsbourg, Toby Jones, Timothy Spall, and Robert Duvall.

Marking the third collaboration between Cooper and Bale after Out of the Furnace and Hostiles, this is being greeted with decidedly mixed notices. The Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 57% with some writers praising the production value while criticizing the gloomy vibe.

Netflix clearly had no real plans to mount an awards campaign for this. They probably could’ve tried for Production and/or Costume Design. It showed up nowhere in the Globe or Critics Choice mentions. The Academy is highly likely to follow suit. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

2022 Oscar Predictions: September 5th Edition

As I always say at the beginning of September on this blog – what a difference a few days makes as Venice is at its midpoint and Telluride occurred over the holiday weekend. The Toronto Film Festival begins Thursday. For the first time, I am thrilled to announce that I will be in attendance and have screenings scheduled for several potential heavy hitters! They include The Fabelmans, The Son, The Whale, Women Talking, The Banshees of Inisherin, Triangle of Sadness, Empire of Light, The Menu, The Wonder, Bros, The Greatest Beer Run Ever, and The Good Nurse. 

The fall festivals always cause the fortunes of certain pictures to rise and fall. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Bardo received mixed reviews out of Lido and it has dropped out of my predictions in Picture, Director, Actor (Daniel Gimenez Cacho), and Supporting Actress (Griselda Sicillani). On the other hand, Sarah Polley’s Women Talking looks to have solidified its position as a BP hopeful while Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley appear to be the two likeliest nominees from its ensemble. Cate Blanchett (Tar) and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) have positioned themselves as surefire nominees and potential winners in the lead acting derbies. Tar itself improved its standing in Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. Empire of Light is no slam dunk for BP, but it’s in the mix and Olivia Colman seems solid in Actress. The Banshees of Inisherin may be Fox Searchlight’s better hope over Empire. It drew a rapturous Venice reaction today and has vaulted into Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay on my chart. Bones and All, despite some gushing reviews, could face challenges to fit into the BP race. Don’t Worry Darling, due to some middling write-ups, is probably toast.

Of course, we know that festivals are not the end all and be all for final verdicts. For example, Armageddon Time from James Gray seemed DOA after a so-so Cannes bow in the summer. Yet when it played Telluride over the weekend, the buzz was stronger. It’s awards heart is beating again – even if faintly.

This will probably be my last update for two weeks as I’ll be a Canadian for a few days. You can bet you’ll see lots of other individual Oscar prediction posts as well as reviews of the aforementioned pictures. When I update in a couple of weeks, I’m anticipating branching out to all races covering feature films. Until then, you can peruse all the movement (and there is definitely a lot of it) below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Son (PR: 5) (E)

6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+4)

7. The Whale (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tar (PR: 11) (+3)

9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 18) (+9)

10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (E)

13. She Said (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 16) (+2)

15. Elvis (PR: 15) (E)

16. White Noise (PR: 13) (-3)

17. Bones and All (PR: 22) (+5)

18. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)

19. Till (PR: 20) (+1)

20. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 23) (+3)

21. Broker (PR: 17) (-4)

22. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 19) (-3)

23. Living (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Bardo (PR: 4) (-20)

25. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 24) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Menu

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 11) (+5)

7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 9) (+1)

9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)

11. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo

Maria Schrader, She Said 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 6) (E)

7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Taylor Russell, Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Tang Wei, Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Regina King, Shirley (moved to 2023)

Frances McDormand, Women Talking (role not large enough)

Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling 

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 10) (+6)

5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 7) (E)

8. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Park Hae-il, Decision to Leave (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 14) (+10)

5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 6) (E)

7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 13) (E)

14. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Griselda Sicillani, Bardo

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR 2) (E)

3. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 3) (E)

4. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (E)

10. Anthony Hopkins, The Son (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Strong, Tar (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 13) (E)

14. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 14) (E)

15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Colin Firth, Empire of Light

Toby Jones, Empire of Light

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Babylon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tar (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Broker (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Bros (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 13) (E)

14. Bardo (PR: 5) (-9)

15. The Menu (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Don’t Worry Darling

Chevalier

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Son (PR: 1) (E)

2. Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Whale (PR: 3) (E)

4. She Said (PR: 4) (E)

5. White Noise (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Bones and All (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Living (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (E)

10. Till (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Lost King (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Wonder (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Elvis (PR: 13) (-1)

15. The Good Nurse (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Woman King 

Oscar Predictions: Empire of Light

Empire of Light is the ninth feature film from Sam Mendes. Six of his previous eight titles received at least one Oscar nod. His debut, 1999’s American Beauty, won Best Picture and Director. His last, war epic 1917, garnered ten nominations and was victorious with three of them. The Mendes streak of awards success should continue with Empire of Light, which has premiered at Telluride prior to its December 9th stateside release.

Called the filmmaker’s most personal effort, Empire is a late 70s/early 80s set celebration of cinema with a May/December romance between leads Olivia Colman and Micheal Ward. Costars include Tom Brooke, Toby Jones, and Colin Firth.

We are early in the review process and some of the write-ups are rather mixed. Yet the superlatives going to Colman has me thinking she’s going to receive her fourth Academy mention in five years. She won for Best Actress in 2018 The Favourite and then nabbed a Supporting Actress nod in 2020 for The Father. A lead actress slot followed last year for The Lost Daughter. The other races where this looks strong are Cinematography from the legendary Roger Deakins and the Trent Reznior/Atticus Ross score. Production Design is also doable.

Ward’s work is also being praised. However, I’m not near as confident he makes the Actor cut. Firth’s role, by the way, sounds too small for a supporting bid. The latter’s performance and its viability could be determined by Empire‘s strength in BP (as well as the original screenplay). Voters do love movies about their industry and that could help. I don’t believe this has established a guaranteed spot among the ten. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Wonder

Florence Pugh’s turn in the forthcoming Don’t Worry Darling (which is readying its Venice debut) might be her highest profile autumn project. Yet the actress (a Supporting Actress nominee for Little Women in 2019) is generating kudos for The Wonder, which has premiered at Telluride. A November theatrical release is planned prior to a December Netflix bow.

Sebastian Lelio directs the drama set in 1860s Ireland. He’s known for critically appreciated efforts like Disobedience and Gloria Bell and five years ago, his Chilean pic A Fantastic Woman won the international feature prize from the Academy. Pugh stars as a nurse tasked with monitoring a young girl said to have survived without food for months. Tom Burke, Niamh Algar, Toby Jones, and Ciaran Hinds costar. The screenplay comes from Emma Donoghue and it’s based on her own novel. She is best known for the book and script for Room, which won Brie Larson a Best Actress Oscar.

The smattering of reviews out are mostly positive though they don’t have me thinking The Wonder is a Best Picture contender. I could see Netflix pushing Pugh in lead actress. And with that… get used to this refrain. I believe 60% of the Actress field might be set already. That would be Michelle Yeah in Everything Everywhere All at Once, Cate Blanchett for Tar, and Olivia Colman for Empire of Light (my post for that is about to be published so consider this a spoiler alert). Pugh and anyone else could be competing for two slots and there’s plenty of performances left unseen.

Bottom line: I wouldn’t count Pugh out based on initial reaction for The Wonder but competition is already severe. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…