Tag: Titane

Neon Lights Up Cannes

No one can do Cannes like Neon. The indie film production company has ruled the French festival for six years straight when it comes to the Palme d’Or winner. That list consists of Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Anora. The first and last movies in that quintet went onto win Best Picture at the Oscars with Triangle and Anatomy nabbing nominations.

Neon once again had contenders to spare at this year’s competition and many assumed the grand prize would go to Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. That acclaimed family drama immediately established itself as an Oscar contender. Yet the Cannes jury (headed by Juliette Binoche) instead chose another Neon property in Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. It marks another festival triumph for the Iranian filmmaker. His 2000 feature The Circle took top honors in Venice while 2015’s Taxi was awarded best of at the Berlin Fest. Accident now enters the conversation for a BP mention from the Academy and it certainly is a major contender for International Feature Film.

As for the more favored Value, it settled for the Grand Prix designation which is basically runner-up (it went to BP nominee The Zone of Interest in 2023). As mentioned, Neon has high hopes for its future in the coming months.

The Jury Prize (which Emilia Pérez took last time around) was shared between Spanish/French coproduction Sirât from Oliver Laxe and Mascha Schilinski’s German generational tale Sound of Falling (which is also a sturdy hopeful in IFF).

Another major player for Neon is The Secret Agent, the 1970s set Brazilian political thriller. Kieber Mendonça Filho received the Director trophy while Wagner Moura is Best Actor. Look for Agent to have a potential presence in IFF while Moura’s lead campaign could be a real threat for Academy inclusion.

Nadia Melliti is your Best Actress for the French coming-of-age drama The Little Sister. The young actress emerged over heavy hitter Jennifer Lawrence from Die, My Love. Nevertheless Lawrence did strengthen her shot at a fifth Oscar play months down the road.

Some had pegged Richard Linklater’s Nouvelle Vague (which recounts the shooting of French classic Breathless) for some Riviera prizes, but it wasn’t to be. Other high profile premieres not found among the victors are Iranian drama Woman and Child (where Parinaz Izadyar was considered viable in Actress), Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme, and Julia Ducournau’s Titane follow-up Alpha.

Keep an eye on the blog as I continue to write individual posts for movies screened at Cannes. I hadn’t even gotten to Accident yet! As for next year, look to see what Neon’s backing when figuring out the favorites…

Oscar Predictions: Alpha

Julia Ducournau’s body horror tale Titane took Cannes by storm in 2021, emerging with the Palme d’Or. The French selected it as their horse for International Feature Film at the Oscars, but it surprised prognosticators by not even making the shortlist of contenders.

The auteur is back at the festival with Alpha, returning her to Titane‘s genre with a cast including Tahar Rahim, Golshifeth Farahani, Mélissa Boros, Emma Mackey, Finnegan Oldfield, and Louai El Amrousy.

Reaction from the Riviera is far more varied than Ducournau’s previous Palme taker. Rotten Tomatoes stands at 56% with Metacritic at 47. That’s compared to the respective 90/75 scores of Titane. It is probably a safe assumption that France will not submit this as their entry for IFF and awards chatter for Alpha will be muted. Distributor Neon, it should be said, has more viable hopefuls including the heralded Sentimental Value. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Sentimental Value

Distributor Neon has shined brightly at the Cannes Film Festival by releasing the previous five Palme d’Or recipients: Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Anora. Only Titane missed a Best Picture nod from the Academy. Parasite and Anora won. That’s one of the reasons Joachim Trier’s family drama Sentimental Value is considered to be a serious contender for the top prize in France. Another is because it’s the filmmaker’s follow-up to his acclaimed 2021 effort The Worst Person in the World which reunites him with star Renate Reinsve. The supporting cast includes Stellan Skarsgård, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Elle Fanning, Anders Danielsen Lie, and Cory Michael Smith.

Early festival reaction is effusive and points to Value indeed being a major Palme threat. Neon could guide this to numerous Oscar nods including Picture, Director, Reinsve in Actress, Skasrgård in Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay. Then there’s Supporting Actress and according to reviews, Neon may have a decision to make as Lilleass and Fanning are both being praised. The latter would be a higher profile campaign, but let’s see how it plays out.

Bottom line: there is no doubt that Sentimental has quickly established itself a potential force at Cannes and beyond. Expect to hear a lot about it this awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

2022 Oscar Shortlists Predictions

The Academy, as they do every year, whittles down a few of their races to a set 10-15 contenders before announcing the final five on January 24th. This occurs tomorrow. For Original Score and Song and International Feature Film and Documentary Feature, the list goes down to 15. For Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects – it drops to 10. There are surprises every year. In 2021, Titane was shockingly left out of International Feature Film.

I’m giving you my predicted shortlists for all 7 feature film derbies with some commentary. I’ll have a recap up tomorrow!

Best Original Score

Predicted Shortlist:

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Bardo

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Empire of Light

The Fabelmans

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Living

Nope

RRR

White Noise

The Woman King

Women Talking

***She Said was just on the outside looking in and I wouldn’t discount A Man Called Otto either.

Best Original Song

Predicted Shortlist:

“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman

“Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing

“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

“Good Tonight” from The Bad Guys

“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick

“Keep Rising” from The Woman King

“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

“Naatu Naatu” from RRR

“New Body Rhumba” from White Noise

“Nobody Like U” from Turning Red

“Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water

“On My Way (Marry Me)” from Marry Me

“Ready As I’ll Ever Be” from The Return of Tanya Tucker – Featuring Brandi Carlile

“Stand Up” from Till

“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

***Leaving “Love Is Not Love” from Bros off was tough and don’t discount a tune (probably “Carried Away”) from Lyle Lyle Crocodile.

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Shortlist:

Alcarras (Spain)

All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)

Bardo (Mexico)

Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden)

Close (Belgium)

Corsage (Austria)

Decision to Leave (South Korea)

EO (Poland)

Holy Spider (Denmark)

Joyland (Pakistan)

Mars One (Netherlands)

The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

Return to Seoul (Cambodia)

Saint Omer (France)

***No love for Japan’s Plan 75 or Ukraine’s Klondike (which would be a surprise omission), but both could easily surface. I also don’t have India’s Last Film Show making the cut. If it doesn’t, that would confirm that nation’s error in not putting up RRR.

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Shortlist:

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Bad Axe

Descendant

Fire of Love

Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down

Good Night Oppy

The Janes

Last Flight Home

Moonage Daydream

Navalny

Retrograde

Riotsville U.S.A.

Sr.

Wildcat

***My major snub here is The Territory. I also left Sidney (about the legendary Poitier) out which is certainly risky.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Shortist:

Amsterdam

Babylon

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Blonde

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Three Thousand Years of Longing

The Whale

The Woman King

***I so wanted to put X here, but didn’t pull the trigger. All Quiet on the Western Front, Emancipation, and The Fabelmans are all viable too.

Best Sound

Predicted Shortlist:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Batman

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Nope

RRR

Thirteen Lives

Top Gun: Maverick

***Leaving out Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is risky and this is another category where The Fabelmans is possible. Same goes for The Woman King.

Best Visuasl Effects

Predicted Shortlist:

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Good Night Oppy

Nope

RRR

Thor: Love and Thunder

Top Gun: Maverick

***Look out for All Quiet on the Western Front and maybe Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio.

2021 BAFTA Awards WINNERS Predictions

As if Sunday’s Critics Choice Awards weren’t enough, the British Academy Film Awards air the same day. The BAFTAs, as of late, have been a rather reliable predictor for Oscar races (especially the acting derbies). Last year, the BAFTA/Oscar matched in all 4 thespian derbies and that included the surprise Anthony Hopkins (The Father) victory over Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. 

That can’t occur this time around because none of the Best Actress contenders at BAFTA are nominated for the Academy Award (go figure!). As I have with other ceremonies, I’m giving you my winner pick with a runner-up. On Monday, expect recaps for Critics Choice and this show!

Best Film

Nominees:

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

Dune

Licorice Pizza

The Power of the Dog

Predicted Winner: The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up: Belfast

Best Director

Nominees:

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Audrey Diwan, Happening

Julia Ducournau, Titane

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Aleem Khan, After Love

Predicted Winner: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

Emilia Jones, CODA

Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World

Joanna Scanlan, After Love

Tessa Thompson, Passing

Predicted Winner: Joanna Scanlan, After Love

Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:

Adeel Akhtar, Ali & Ava

Mahershala Ali, Swan Song

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up

Stephen Graham, Boiling Point

Will Smith, King Richard

Predicted Winner: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up: Will Smith, King Richard

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Ann Dowd, Mass

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Ruth Negga, Passing

Predicted Winner: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Runner-Up: Ruth Negga, Passing

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Mike Faist, West Side Story

Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Woody Norman, C’Mon C’Mon

Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Predicted Winner: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up: Troy Kotsur, CODA

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees:

Being the Ricardos

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Predicted Winner: Belfast

Runner-Up: Licorice Pizza

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:

CODA

Drive My Car

Dune

The Lost Daughter

The Power of the Dog

Predicted Winner: The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up: The Lost Daughter

Best Animated Film

Nominees:

Encanto

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Predicted Winner: Flee

Runner-Up: Encanto

Best Documentary 

Nominees:

Becoming Cousteau

Cow

Flee

The Rescue

Summer of Soul

Predicted Winner: Summer of Soul

Runner-Up: Flee

Best Film Not in the English Language

Nominees:

Drive My Car

The Hand of God

Parallel Mothers

Petite Maman

The Worst Person in the World

Predicted Winner: Drive My Car

Runner-Up: The Worst Person in the World

Best Casting

Nominees:

Boiling Point

Dune

The Hand of God

King Richard

West Side Story

Predicted Winner: West Side Story

Runner-Up: Dune

Best Cinematography

Nominees:

Dune

Nightmare Alley

No Time to Die

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Predicted Winner: Dune

Runner-Up: The Power of the Dog

Best Costume Design

Nominees:

Cruella

Cyrano

Dune

The French Dispatch

Nightmare Alley

Predicted Winner: Cruella

Runner-Up: Dune

Best Editing

Nominees:

Belfast

Dune

Licorice Pizza

No Time to Die

Summer of Soul

Predicted Winner: Dune

Runner-Up: No Time to Die

Best Makeup and Hair

Nominees:

Cruella

Cyrano

Dune

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

House of Gucci

Predicted Winner: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Runner-Up: House of Gucci

Best Original Score

Nominees:

Being the Ricardos

Don’t Look Up

Dune

The French Dispatch

The Power of the Dog

Predicted Winner: Dune

Runner-Up: The Power of the Dog

Best Production Design

Nominees:

Cyrano

Dune

The French Dispatch

Nightmare Alley

West Side Story

Predicted Winner: Dune

Runner-Up: Nightmare Alley

Best Sound

Nominees:

Dune

Last Night in Soho

No Time to Die

A Quiet Place Part II

West Side Story

Predicted Winner: Dune

Runner-Up: No Tme to Die

Best Special Visual Effects

Nominees:

Dune

Free Guy

Ghostbusters: Afterlife 

The Matrix Resurrections

No Time to Die

Predicted Winner: Dune

Runner-Up: No Time to Die

Outstanding British Film

Nominees:

After Love

Ali & Ava

Belfast

Boiling Point

Cyrano

Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

House of Gucci

Last Night in Soho

No Time to Die

Passing

Predicted Winner: Belfast

Runner-Up: After Love

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer

Nominees:

After Love

Boiling Point

The Harder They Fall

Keyboard Fantasies

Passing

Predicted Winner: Passing

Runner-Up: After Love

My predictions mean the following movies get these numbers of wins:

6 Wins

Dune

5 Wins

The Power of the Dog

2 Wins

Belfast, West Side Story

1 Win

After Love, Cruella, Drive My Car, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Flee, Passing, Summer of Soul

2021 BAFTA Nominations Reaction

For the second year in a row, the British Academy Film Awards (or BAFTAs) showed its unpredictable nature with some shocking omissions and unexpected inclusions. The last major precursor before Oscar nominations are unveiled Tuesday, I went 63 of 99 when it comes to races with a correlation to the Academy’s competitions. Truth be told – it coulda been worse considering the surprises we witnessed today.

Let’s break them down one by one with some commentary, shall we?

Film

Nominees: Belfast, Don’t Look Up, Dune, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog

How I Did: 3/5

Commentary: The BAFTAs delivered a great haul for Pizza. It and Don’t Look Up got in over my picks of The Tragedy of Macbeth and West Side Story (which both underwhelmed). Gut reaction says Power is in the lead.

Director

Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Audrey Diwan (Happening), Julia Ducournau (Titane), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), Aleem Khan (After Love)

How I Did: 4/6

Commentary: Wow – no Kenneth Branagh for Belfast or Denis Villeneuve for Dune! They miss with Anderson and Diwan taking the spots. Like with Film, Campion could be out in front.

Leading Actress

Nominees: Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Emilia Jones (CODA), Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World), Joanna Scanlan (After Love), Tessa Thompson (Passing)

How I Did: 3/6

Commentary: Surprises galore here! No Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos or Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter. I predicted both along with Claire Rushbrook for Ali & Ava. In their slots are Haim (continuing the Licorice love), Jones, and Thompson. I would also note no Kristen Stewart in Spencer after her SAG snub.

Now here’s an interesting stat – since 2013, the BAFTA Leading Actress recipient has matched the Oscar winner. So… are Kidman and Colman in trouble? Could Gaga be on her way to a gold statue? Does this show Haim’s potential strength at getting an Academy mention? Questions abound, but I know one thing – this year’s Actress race is as intriguing as last year’s.

Leading Actor

Nominees: Adeel Akhtar (Ali & Ava), Mahershala Ali (Swan Song), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up), Stephen Graham (Boiling Point), Will Smith (King Richard)

How I Did: 3/6

Commentary: Smith’s inclusion here (which I didn’t project) just might solidify him as the Oscar frontrunner (with Cumberbatch pretty close behind). Academy hopefuls Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!) and Denzel Washington (Macbeth) were left out as was Daniel Craig in his swan song as Bond in No Time to Die. In their place – Smith, Ali (following up on his Globe nominated turn), and DiCaprio.

Side note – somehow, Denzel has never been nominated for a BAFTA.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Caitriona Balfe (Belfast), Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Ann Dowd (Mass), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), Ruth Negga (Passing)

How I Did: 4/6

Commentary: Dowd finally shows up! I must say – no huge shockers here as she and Ellis made it over Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) and Kathryn Hunter (Macbeth). We’ll see if DeBose’s potential sweep continues here.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Mike Faist (West Side Story), Ciaran Hinds (Belfast), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Woody Norman (C’Mon C’Mon), Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

How I Did: 3/6

Commentary: There was a double dose of Dog love for Plemons (who I didn’t predict) and Smit-McPhee (who I did and he could certainly win). I also went with Faist’s costar David Alvarez instead in a last minute switch that I now regret. And young Norman is responsible for the only nod for C’Mon C’Mon. I also went with Benicio del Toro for The French Dispatch and Jamie Dornan in Belfast. At this point, an Oscar nod for Dornan seems like a reach. Also worth noting is that, despite Pizza over performing, no Bradley Cooper.

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Being the Ricardos, Belfast, Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza

How I Did: 4/5

Commentary: Here’s a list that may absolutely match the Oscar one. I said After Love over Richard (which had a solid day). Like with the Academy, this might be a Belfast v. Pizza showdown and considering how well the latter did, I might lean that way.

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: CODA, Drive My Car, Dune, The Lost Daughter, The Power of the Dog

How I Did: 4/5

Commentary: Went with West Side Story over Dune. This is Power‘s to lose.

Animated Film

Nominees: Encanto, Flee, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines

How I Did: 3/4

Commentary: Rather predictable list though I said Ron’s Gone Wrong instead of Luca.

Film Not in the English Language

Nominees: Drive My Car, The Hand of God, Parallel Mothers, Petite Maman, The Worst Person in the World

How I Did: 3/5

Commentary: No Flee here or Titane with God and Mothers in. Drive My Car is the favorite.

Documentary

Nominees: Becoming Cousteau, Cow, Flee, The Rescue, Summer of Soul

How I Did: 3/5

Commentary: Summer of Soul did well when factoring in the surprise Editing nod. It made it along with Cousteau over my picks of The Sparks Brothers and The Velvet Underground.

Cinematography

Nominees: Dune, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth

How I Did: 4/5

Commentary: Well – Macbeth got something (!) Only miss here was going with Belfast instead of Alley.

Costume Design

Nominees: Cruella, Cyrano, Dune, The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley

How I Did: 2/5

Commentary: There’s always a pesky 2/5 race where I just whiff. I got Cyrano and Dune right but the others popped up over House of Gucci, Last Night in Soho, and West Side Story. I didn’t predict it, but Cruella could be the main competition for Dune.

Editing

Nominees: Belfast, Dune, Licorice Pizza, No Time to Die, Summer of Soul

How I Did: 3/5

Commentary: Soul‘s aforementioned placement is unexpected – could it possibly follow suit with the Academy? Also didn’t project Pizza. They are in over Last Night in Soho and (you guessed it) West Side Story.

Makeup and Hair

Nominees: Cruella, Cyrano, Dune, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci

How I Did: 4/5

Commentary: Cyrano over The Electrical Life of Louis Wain. Honestly, other than Cyrano, I think any of the hopefuls could take this.

Original Score

Nominees: Being the Ricardos, Don’t Look Up, Dune, The French Dispatch, The Power of the Dog

How I Did: 3/5

Commentary: Ricardos and Don’t Look Up in; The Green Knight and Spencer out. Probably a showdown of Dune v. Dog. 

Production Design

Nominees: Cyrano, Dune, The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story

How I Did: 3/5

Commentary: Here’s a rare category where I incorrectly had West Side missing. It’s in, along with Cyrano (which had a decent haul with tech races) over Belfast and Macbeth.

Sound

Nominees: Dune, Last Night in Soho, No Time to Die, A Quiet Place Part II, West Side Story

How I Did: 4/5

Commentary: Place over Belfast. Expect Dune to reign supreme.

Special Visual Effects

Nominees: Dune, Free Guy, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, The Matrix Resurrections, No Time to Die

How I Did: 3/5

Commentary: Should be another victory for Dune as Free Guy and Ghostbusters made it over my selections of The King’s Man and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings.

And there’s your recap. As a reminder, my FINAL Oscar predictions (which I’m currently beating myself up over) will be posted tomorrow! Stay tuned…

2021 BAFTA Predictions

The last major precursor nominations before Tuesday’s Oscar nods come out tomorrow and it’s the British Academy Film Awards or BAFTAs. Let’s discuss them a bit, shall we? The BAFTAs can be a confusing branch to figure out.

For starters, the number of nominees in each category is a tad puzzling. Best Film has five as do the tech races and screenplay derbies. Director and the acting competitions contain 6 while Animated Film is 4. However, Documentary and “Film Not in the English Language” is 5. Got that?

While past years have matched the Oscars fairly closely in the big categories, 2020 was an exception. While 4 of the 5 Best Film contenders ended up nabbing BP mentions from the Academy, it was just 3 of the directors. For Best Actor, it was also 3 but in Best Actress only two. Same goes for Supporting – 3 in Actor, 2 in Actress.

In other words, projecting the BAFTAs is a major crapshoot but I’ll try. Since it’s British voters, titles such as the BBC’s After Love are expected to perform well in some of the major races.

Another major note – I am only forecasting competitions where there’s a direct correlation to the Academy. Therefore I’m not weighing in on Best British Film, Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer, or Casting.

For each race, I’ll give you my picks (and I triple checked the numbers) and an alternate. A recap on how I did and my general thoughts are up tomorrow and my final Oscar predictions will be up Friday!

Film

Predicted Nominees:

Belfast

Dune

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Alternate: No Time to Die

Director

Predicted Nominees:

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog 

Julia Ducournau, Titane

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Aleem Khan, After Love

Denis Villeneuve, Dune

Alternate: Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epoyDw8EU9I&t=1s

Leading Actress

Predicted Nominees:

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World

Claire Rushbrook, Ali & Ava

Joanna Scanlan, After Love

Alternate: Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Leading Actor

Predicted Nominees:

Adeel Akhtar, Ali & Ava

Daniel Craig, No Time to Die

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!

Stephen Graham, Boiling Point

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Alternate: Will Smith, King Richard

Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Ruth Negga, Passing

Alternate: Vinette Robinson, Boiling Point

Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

David Alvarez, West Side Story

Benicio del Toro, The French Dispatch

Jamie Dornan, Belfast

Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Alternate: Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

After Love

Being the Ricardos

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

Licorice Pizza

Alternate: The French Dispatch

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

CODA

Drive My Car

The Lost Daughter

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Alternate: The Tragedy of Macbeth

Animated Film

Predicted Nominees:

Encanto

Flee

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Ron’s Gone Wrong

Alternate: Luca

Film Not in the English Language

Predicted Nominees:

Drive My Car

Flee

Petite Maman

Titane

The Worst Person in the World

Alternate: The Hand of God

Documentary

Predicted Nominees:

Cow

Flee

The Rescue

The Sparks Brothers

The Velvet Underground

Alternate: Summer of Soul

Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

Belfast

Dune

No Time to Die

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Alternate: West Side Story

Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

Cyrano

Dune

House of Gucci

Last Night in Soho

West Side Story

Alternate: Cruella

Editing

Predicted Nominees:

Belfast

Dune

Last Night in Soho

No Time to Die

West Side Story

Alternate: The Power of the Dog

Makeup and Hair

Predicted Nominees:

Cruella

Dune

The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

House of Gucci

Altenrate: Last Night in Soho

Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

Dune

The French Dispatch

The Green Knight

The Power of the Dog

Spencer

Alternate: No Time to Die

Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

Belfast

Dune

The French Dispatch

Nightmare Alley

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Alternate: West Side Story

Sound

Predicted Nominees:

Belfast

Dune

Last Night in Soho

No Time to Die

West Side Story

Alternate: The Power of the Dog 

Special Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

Dune

The King’s Man

The Matrix Resurrections

No Time to Die

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Alternate: Ghostbusters: Afterlife

2021 Oscar Predictions: December 23rd Edition

My pre-Christmas Oscar predictions implements no changes in Director, the acting races, or Original Screenplay. However, the Best Picture landscape is altered slightly as Tick Tick… Boom! is back in the top 10 with Nightmare Alley falling out.

In Adapted Screenplay, Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car makes the cut in place of Dune. In fact, Car is driving up higher in Picture and Director (where I have it placed in Other Possibilities for the first time). It’s also listed at #1 in International Feature Film over previous frontrunner A Hero. Don’t be surprised if Car keeps rising (it seems to be the foreign entry that could crash the BP derby).

Earlier this week, the shortlists came out in 7 feature film categories: International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Sound, Visual Effects. I wrote about that activity and it obviously changes the landscape in each of the races:

2021 Oscar Shortlists: Reaction

All the movement is contained below and have a Happy Holidays y’all!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune (PR: 4) (+1)

4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)

6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)

7. CODA (PR: 7) (E)

8. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 11) (+3)

9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Drive My Car (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Being the Ricardos (PR: 12) (-1)

14. The Lost Daughter (PR: 13 (-1)

15. A Hero (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

C’Mon C’Mon

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 4) (E)

5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)

7. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (E)

4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)

5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 6) (E)

7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Judi Dench, Belfast

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 4) (E)

5. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)

2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)

4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (E)

5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Hero (PR: 8) (+2)

7. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mass (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

3. CODA (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Passing (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)

3. Luca (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4) (E)

5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (E)

8. Vivo (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (E)

10. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Drive My Car (PR: 2) (+1)

2. A Hero (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)

4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 6) (E)

7. I’m Your Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Great Freedom (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Lamb (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Titane

Memoria

The Good Boss

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)

3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)

4. Procession (PR: 4) (E)

5. Attica (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The First Wave (PR: 5) (-1)

7. President (PR: 7) (E)

8. Faya Dayi (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ascension (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Velvet Underground (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Lost Leonardo

Becoming Cousteau

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (+2)

3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)

4. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Belfast (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)

7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Spencer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (-1)

10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (E)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune (PR: 3) (+1)

3. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-1)

4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spencer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (E)

8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cyrano

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (+3)

5. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)

7. King Richard (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 8) (E)

9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Coming 2 America (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Cyrano (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Suicide Squad (PR: Not Ranked)

9. West Side Story (PR: 8) (-1)

10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spencer

Being the Ricardos

The Last Duel

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Spencer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)

8. King Richard (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Encanto (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Harder They Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nightmare Alley

Cyrano

Being the Ricardos

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)

2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 10) (+4)

7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 6) (-2)

9. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Believe” from The Rescue

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)

3. West Side Story (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Belfast (PR: 6) (E)

7. Spencer (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Time to Die (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Power of the Dog (PR: Not Ranked)

9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (E)

10. Last Night in Soho (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nightmare Alley

The Tragedy of Macbeth

The Last Duel

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)

3. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 3) (E)

4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Free Guy (PR: 8) (+2)

7. No Time to Die (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Eternals (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Black Widow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Don’t Look Up

Finch

And that works out to these films garnering these numbers for nominations:

10 Nominations

Belfast, Dune

9 Nominations

The Power of the Dog, West Side Story

5 Nominations

King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth

4 Nominations

Don’t Look Up

3 Nominations

CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley, Tick Tick… Boom!

2 Nominations

Being the Ricardos, Cruella, Drive My Car, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Spencer

1 Nomination

Attica, Belle, Cyrano, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Procession, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World

2021 Oscar Shortlists: Reaction

It’s a big day for us Oscar prognosticators as the shortlists were revealed this afternoon. For the uninitiated, there are seven feature film races where the Academy releases contenders ranging from 10-15 nominees. For Original Score, Song, International Feature Film, and Documentary Feature – we are given 15 hopefuls. In Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects – the list is dwindled to 10.

Let’s walk thru them one by one and I’ll talk about some surprises and omissions!

Best Original Score

The 15 Contenders:

Being the Ricardos

Candyman

Don’t Look Up

Dune

Encanto

The French Dispatch

The Green Knight

The Harder They Fall

King Richard

The Last Duel

No Time to Die

Parallel Mothers

The Power of the Dog

Spencer

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Commentary: 

Based on my latest Oscar forecast from December 15th, my five predicted nominees (Dune, The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Don’t Look Up, The Tragedy of Macbeth) all made the cut. So did my #7 (The French Dispatch), #9 (Being the Ricardos), and #10 (King Richard). The two omissions from my top 10: (6) Nightmare Alley and (8) Cyrano.

The biggest surprise might be the inclusion of Candyman. 

Best Original Song

The 15 Contenders:

“So May We Start” from Annette

“Down to Joy” from Belfast

“Right Where I Belong” from Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road

“Automatic Woman” from Bruised

“Dream Girl” from Cinderella

“Beyond the Shore” from CODA

“The Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen

“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up

“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto

“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days

“Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall

“Be Alive” from King Richard

“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

“Here I Am” from Respect

“Your Song Saved My Life” from Sing 2

Commentary:

My only top 10 ditty from 12/15 not on this list is “Believe” from The Rescue. I will note that “Every Letter” from Cyrano just dropped from my 10 last week and that turned out to be the correct call. This race still likely boils down to Beyonce (“Be Alive”) vs. Billie (“No Time to Die”).

Best Makeup and Hairstyling 

The 10 Contenders:

Coming 2 America

Cruella

Cyrano

Dune

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

House of Gucci

Nightmare Alley

No Time to Die

The Suicide Squad

West Side Story

Commentary:

A race where Cyrano isn’t left out! Last week I had Spencer in fifth position and it falls out. Same goes for Being the Ricardos (7) and The Last Duel (10). This is a competition that could go for Dune, Gucci, or Tammy as I see it.

Best Sound

The 10 Contenders:

Belfast

Dune

Last Night in Soho

The Matrix Resurrections

No Time to Die

The Power of the Dog

A Quiet Place Part II

Spider-Man: No Way Home

Tick Tick… Boom!

West Side Story

Commentary:

My predicted five from six days ago (Dune, West Side Story, Belfast, No Time to Die, Tick Tick… Boom!) are intact as are my #6 (Matrix) and #9 (A Quiet Place Part II). Not so for the films I had at 7, 8 and 10: Nightmare Alley, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Last Duel). Fresh off its gargantuan box office, the Spidey mention shows potential strength at making the shorter shortlist.

Best Visual Effects

The 10 Contenders:

Black Widow

Dune

Eternals

Free Guy

Ghostbusters: Afterlife 

Godzilla vs. Kong

The Matrix Resurrections

No Time to Die

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Spider-Man: No Way Home

Commentary:

All 4 MCU movies from 2021 make it in as do three Warner Bros spectacles  (Dune, Matrix, Godzilla). I had Don’t Look Up placed fourth but it falls out. So does Finch which I rated seventh. This certainly increases the chances for Marvel to have at least two in the final five, but there’s Dune and then everything else in this race.

Best Documentary Feature

The 15 Contenders:

Ascension

Attica

Billie Eilish: The World’s A Little Blurry

Faya Dayi

The First Wave

Flee

In the Same Breath

Julia

President

Procession

The Rescue

Simple As Water

Summer of Soul

The Velvet Underground

Writing with Fire

Commentary:

It’s tough luck for my #9 (The Lost Leonardo) and #10 (Becoming Cousteau) as this fascinating race plays out between The Rescue, Flee, and Summer of Soul. 

Best International Feature Film

The 15 Contenders:

Compartment No. 6

Drive My Car

Flee

The Good Boss

Great Freedom 

The Hand of God

A Hero

Hive

I’m Your Man

Lamb

Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

Playground

Plaza Catedral

Prayers for the Stolen

The Worst Person in the World

Commentary:

A Lamb and a Yak walk into the international competition, but the shocker of the day might be France’s Titane (which I had it 7th) not being mentioned. Same goes for #9 Memoria. This could be the category where Flee wins, but A Hero has been my #1. When I update my projections tomorrow, don’t be surprised if the rising Drive My Car from Japan takes over the top spot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epoyDw8EU9I&t=1s

I’ll have fresh estimates in ALL feature categories posted tomorrow!

2021 Oscar Predictions: December 15th Edition

We have arrived at my post Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards predictions for the Oscars! This week’s update comes with two significant #1 switches… starting with Best Picture.

For months, I’ve had Belfast positioned in the top spot. That changes today. Don’t get me wrong: the Kenneth Branagh coming-of-age drama could win Picture, Director, Supporting Actress and Actor, and Original Screenplay. However, for the first time, it’s not listed at #1 in any of those categories.

The #1 Picture slot could’ve gone to West Side Story, but I’m going with The Power of the Dog as it continues to nab critics prizes and place high atop best of lists. In Supporting Actress, I’m swapping Belfast‘s Caitriona Balfe for Ariana DeBose in West Side. 

There’s other alterations in Picture and Supporting Actress. I’m putting Don’t Look Up back in the ten BP hopefuls despite its mixed reviews. That’s to the detriment of Tick Tick… Boom!

I’m also elevating Ruth Negga (Passing) in supporting over Rita Moreno (West Side Story).

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)

2. Belfast (PR: 1) (-1)

3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)

6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)

7. CODA (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Being the Ricardos (PR: 13) (+1)

13. The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)

14. A Hero (PR: 14) (E)

15. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

House of Gucci

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 4) (E)

5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)

7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard

Julia Ducournau, Titane

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)

7. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)

5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 7) (E)

8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (E)

9. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Clifton Collins Jr., Jockey

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (E)

7. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 9) (E)

10. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Richard Jenkins, The Humans

Jon Bernthal, King Richard

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)

2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)

4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Mass (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Hero (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Worst Person in the World

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (E)

4. CODA (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Drive My Car (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Passing (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Humans

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)

3. Luca (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Vivo (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (E)

10. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)

2. Drive My Car (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (E)

4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Titane (PR: 6) (-1)

8. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Memoria (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Good Boss (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Prayers for the Stolen

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)

3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)

4. Procession (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The First Wave (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Attica (PR: 4) (-2)

7. President (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Velvet Underground (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Ascension

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Belfast (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Spencer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)

10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (E)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Dune (PR: 3) (E)

4. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Cyrano (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Last Night in Soho (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Belfast (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. King Richard (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)

2. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Being the Ricardos (PR: 8) (+1)

8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Last Duel (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Spencer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+3)

5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)

9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (+1)

10. King Richard (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)

2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 5) (+2)

4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 10) (+4)

7. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Every Letter” from Cyrano

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)

5. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Belfast (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Cyrano (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Spencer (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Power of the Dog (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Time to Die (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-1)

9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Don’t Look Up

King Richard

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)

3. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (E)

7. Finch (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Free Guy (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Eternals (PR: 3) (-6)

10. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Suicide Squad

My current estimates mean these movies nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune

10 Nominations

Belfast

9 Nominations

The Power of the Dog, West Side Story

6 Nominations

Don’t Look Up

5 Nominations

King Richard

4 Nominations

Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth

3 Nominations

Being the Ricardos, CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley, Spencer

2 Nominations

Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Tick Tick… Boom!

1 Nomination

Belle, Cyrano, Drive My Car, The First Wave, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, Procession, The Rescue, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World