Tag: Timothee Chalamet

97th Academy Awards FINAL Winner Predictions

This is it. After months upon months of speculation and scores of individual Oscar Prediction posts…

After 35 Case Of entries making the argument for and against every Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor nominee…

After trying to pick up clues based on what happened at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, PGA, DGA, and more…

After changing and re-changing my mind right up until I type these final words…

These are my final prediction for the 97th Academy Awards airing Sunday with Conan O’Brien hosting!

We’ve had endless chatter on this blog so let’s get to it. For each race, I’m giving you my winner pick with a runner-up and some brief commentary.

BEST PICTURE

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked

Unlike last year where Oppenheimer was the obvious pick to win, there is real suspense heading into the last category of the night. Anora took Critics Choice/DGA/PGA, Conclave nabbed BAFTA/SAG Best Ensemble while The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez won their respective Drama and Musical or Comedy competitions at the Globes.

Due to its recent controversies, Pérez is out of the hunt. I honestly could see The Brutalist still emerging. I had it placed at #1 in my overall predictions for a long time during my weekly updates. That said, it’s probably third in the running. Even though one heckuva argument can be made for Conclave and recent momentum, I’m going with Anora.

PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

It is very dangerous to go against the DGA winner and that’s Sean Baker. Oscar/DGA match nearly every year. If you’re betting on this competition, probably go Baker. Yet Corbet took the Globe and BAFTA. Jon M. Chu (as an outlier) was the Critics Choice honoree. I could see Corbet still pulling this off.

PREDICTED WINNER: BRADY CORBET, THE BRUTALIST

Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

Torres (Globe winner for Actress in a Drama) isn’t impossible, but it’s a long shot. This is a real nail biter between Madison and Moore. The former was the surprise BAFTA recipient while Moore’s comeback narrative yielded her the Globe (Musical or Comedy), Critics Choice, and SAG. Had Madison taken SAG, I’d probably be predicting her. I’m sticking with Demi in what could be the closest race of the evening.

PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE

Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Chalamet certainly made this race more intriguing when he took SAG, but Brody has the Globe/Critics Choice/BAFTA combo.

PREDICTED WINNER: ADRIEN BRODY, THE BRUTALIST

Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

It was once thought that this could turn into a Grande v. Saldaña showdown. The latter has instead swept through the season. Saldaña appears immune to the Pérez negative publicity.

PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisvov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

It’s rare for the Supporting Actor winner not to come from a BP nominee, but Culkin has swept thus far and anyone else taking this would be a major upset at this juncture.

PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN

Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

This is not the slam dunk that I once assumed with Anora. Both A Real Pain and The Substance have picked up unexpected precursor prizes. I’m still going with my BP.

PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA

Runner-Up: A Real Pain

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

Conclave should get this though a Nickel Boys upset is feasible.

PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE

Runner-Up: Nickel Boys

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

This will be the largest test as to how much controversy truly hurt Pérez. A few weeks ago, I would’ve easily picked it. Then came bad press and I’m Still Here sneaking in the BP ten with Torres up in Best Actress. Pérez could still pull this off, but I’m saying Here.

PREDICTED WINNER: I’M STILL HERE

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Flow and Robot have both picked up precursors. So did Gromit, but that was BAFTA and they honored their own. This feels like a coin flip between Flow and Robot and my gut says the former in a squeaker.

PREDICTED WINNER: FLOW

Runner-Up: The Wild Robot

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane

The doc branch is truly unpredictable and that’s compounded by precursors being all over the place. In fact, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story picked up a couple honors and it’s not listed here. No Other Land was once thought of as a sweeper and that didn’t materialize. I’ll still say it wins with Porcelain as the most significant threat.

PREDICTED WINNER: NO OTHER LAND

Runner-Up: Porcelain War

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu

Maria and Nosferatu are possible but I’ll say the epic Brutalist.

PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST

Runner-Up: Nosferatu

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

Academy voters should ride with Wicked.

PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED

Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

BEST FILM EDITING

Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

This is a tough one between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave. The Brutalist is tempting and so is going with the BP pick Anora. This feels like a dart board selection and I’m landing on BAFTA honoree Conclave.

PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE

Runner-Up: Anora

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

All signs point to The Substance.

PREDICTED WINNER: THE SUBSTANCE

Runner-Up: Wicked

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

I wouldn’t rule out Conclave, but The Brutalist is the pick.

PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late

Who knows? Maybe the Academy just goes with Elton John. They could also finally honor songwriter Diane Warren after 15 nomination and zero wins. And this is another test for Pérez with Globe winner “Mi Camino”. I’ll say “Camino” in a pick ’em.

PREDICTED WINNER: “MI CAMINO” FROM EMILIA PÉREZ

Runner-Up: “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

If The Brutalist over performs and takes BP, I could see this happening. Wicked is the safer pick.

PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST SOUND

A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

The musicals could surprise. Dune: Part Two is likelier.

PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO

Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

This should be Dune‘s other victory.

PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO

Runner-Up: Better Man

And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening and here’s the breakdown of win totals for the pictures…

4 Wins

The Brutalist

2 Wins

Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked

1 Win

Conclave, Flow, I’m Still Here, No Other Land, A Real Pain

Oscars: The Case of Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Monica Barbaro in James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown.

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Monica Barbaro:

As Bob Dylan’s on and off again flame Joan Baez, Barbaro has a breakout role as the legendary folk singer. The SAG awards put her in their mix and the picture itself scored an impressive eight nominations overall.

The Case Against Monica Barbaro:

Folks making up the voting branches at Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the Golden Globes did not nominate her. Zoe Saldaña from Emilia Pérez has dominated the precursors.

The Verdict:

Of Unknown‘s three acting nominees – Timothée Chalamet in Actor, Edward Norton in Supporting Actor, and here – I would rank Barbaro third in terms of winning possibility.

My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Supporting Actor and that’s Yura Borisov from Anora…

30th Critics’ Choice Awards Winner Predictions

The Critics’ Choice Awards hold their 30th ceremony this Friday after being delayed nearly a month due to the California wildfires. The Chelsea Handler hosted affair could certainly provide clues as to where Oscar could go in various competitions.

For some context, here’s how many times the CCA victor in some high profile races have matched with the Academy in the previous decade:

Picture: 5/10

Director: 8/10

Actress: 6/10

Actor: 6/10

Supporting Actress: 8/10

Supporting Actor: 9/10

Unlike the Oscars where my speculation goes on for months and across scores of posts, this is quick and to the point. Here are my winner predictions with a runner-up named. I’ll have a recap up shortly after the show.

Best Picture

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Anora

Best Director

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

PREDICTED WINNER – Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

PREDICTED WINNER – Mikey Madison, Anora

Runner-Up: Demi Moore, The Substance

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)

PREDICTED WINNER – Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

PREDICTED WINNER – Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

PREDICTED WINNER – Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

PREDICTED WINNER – Anora

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Conclave

Runner-Up: Nickel Boys

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

PREDICTED WINNER – Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

PREDICTED WINNER – The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Flow

BEST COMEDY

Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma

PREDICTED WINNER – A Real Pain

Runner-Up: Saturday Night

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS

Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)

PREDICTED WINNER – Izaac Wang, Dídi

Runner-Up: Elliot Heffernan, Blitz

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST EDITING

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, September 5

PREDICTED WINNER – Anora

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Substance

Runner-Up: Wicked

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST SCORE

The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

PREDICTED WINNER – Challengers

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST SONG

“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

PREDICTED WINNER – “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: “Compress/Repress” from Challengers

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Dune: Part Two

Runner-Up: Better Man

That means I’m projecting that these pictures win these numbers of CCAs:

4 Wins

The Brutalist

3 Wins

Anora, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

2 Wins

A Real Pain

1 Win

Challengers, Conclave, Dídi, Dune: Part Two, The Substance, The Wild Robot

97th Academy Awards Nominations Reaction

Bowen Yang and Rachel Sennott announced nominees for the 97th Academy Awards this morning after being delayed from last week due to the California wildfires. For the ceremony airing March 2nd (hosted by Conan O’Brien), I went 89 for 105 in my picks. I’ll allow myself a pat on the back as I managed to go 20/20 in the four acting derbies and 10/10 in the screenplay races.

As predicted, Emilia Pérez led all hopefuls and it managed to nab 13 nominations (I projected it would get 11). The Brutalist and Wicked followed with 10 apiece while A Complete Unknown and Conclave generated 8.

Let’s walk through each competition with how I did and some initial thoughts, shall we?

BEST PICTURE

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 9/10

The surprise of the morning was Brazilian drama I’m Still Here making the cut. I had A Real Pain instead. As has been discussed frequently on the blog, this is an uncharacteristically open BP field with several winner possibilities. Readers know that I’ve had The Brutalist listed in 1st and I see no reason to change that, but Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave (to a lesser degree… we’ll get to that), Pérez, and maybe Wicked loom.

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

How I Did: 4/5

DGA nominee Mangold is in the quintet over Edward Berger (Conclave). The latter has his second significant snub just two years after being left off for All Quiet on the Western Front. Even if The Brutalist doesn’t emerge as the BP victor, Corbet is the frontrunner. I think Conclave‘s BP chances took a hit with Berger missing.

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

How I Did: 5/5

The narrative for Moore might be too enticing for the Academy to ignore, but I’m beginning to wonder if Torres is a bigger threat than even Madison to upset. I’ll note that all nominees are from BP contenders.

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalmaet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 5/5

The showdown should come down to Brody v. Chalamet.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

How I Did: 5/5

Like Actress, all nominees hail from BP hopefuls with Grande v. Saldaña anticipated to be the storyline.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 5/5

Culkin is out front, but it’s worth noting that A Real Pain missed BP. Does this open the door for Norton or Pearce?

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

How I Did: 5/5

This is where Anora is expected to shine.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

How I Did: 5/5

This is where Conclave is expected to shine.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

How I Did: 3/5

After those acting and screenplay runs, my predictions come back down to Earth. My alternate Flow and Needle are in over Kneecap and Vermiglio. Despite I’m Still Here being an unanticipated addition to BP, Pérez should receive this.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 5/5

This was probably the race that all prognosticators nailed as this was an easy quintet to project. Flow vs. The Wild Robot.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane

How I Did: 3/5

Black Box Diaries and my alternate Soundtrack are in with Daughters (a surprising snub) and Will & Harper out. The Doc branch can hard to figure out though No Other Land is racking up early precursor awards.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu

How I Did: 3/5

My alternate Pérez and Maria (in its sole nom) are in over A Complete Unknown and Conclave. This is probably going to The Brutalist.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

Conclave (which was my runner-up) makes it in over Dune: Part Two. It should be noted that Dune‘s 5 nominations is certainly on the lower end of its expected range. Wicked is the frontrunner.

BEST FILM EDITING

Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

How I Did: 3/5

I went with an upset by leaving off my alternate Anora, but it’s in and so is Wicked over A Complete Unknown and Dune. This is a tricky race to figure out and, frankly, I’m not ready to designate a favorite quite yet.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 5/5

This is where The Substance could materialize.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/5

It’s Wicked and Wild (my alt) over Challengers (which was blanked this morning) and Nosferatu. This could be a Brutalist prize.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late

How I Did: 3/5

“Like a Bird” and Sir Elton’s ditty are part of the mix over “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper and “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, which was expected to make it. The Pérez tracks are out front with “El Mal” as your Globe victor.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 5/5

This could be a Wicked win.

BEST SOUND

A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/5

My alt Pérez and The Wild Robot (in a category where few were predicting it) instead of Blitz and Gladiator II (which had a poor morning with only Costume Design). While Dune could take this, I question whether the subpar five noms makes it vulnerable to others.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

My alt Wicked and not Twisters represented here. The same logic from Sound applies to VE with Dune. Could Alien or Better Man pose a threat?

And there you have it, folks! It’s now time to start my Case Of posts. Readers of the blog may recall that I do individual posts for the 10 BP nominees and the 25 director and acting hopefuls where I lay out the case for and against their winning. Those will be up in short order.

Here’s how the nominations tallies played out:

13 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

10 Nominations

The Brutalist, Wicked

8 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Conclave

6 Nominations

Anora

5 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, The Substance

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

I’m Still Here, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

The Apprentice, Flow, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

Alien: Romulus. Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Different Man, Elton John: Never Too Late, The Girl with the Needle, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

97th Academy Awards: FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions

And it has come down to this. On Thursday, the Academy (barring no further delays) is expected to unveil the contenders for their 97th ceremony. For nearly a year, I’ve been speculating about who and what will be nominated. Over the past few days, I penned deep dives on Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Now it’s time for the speculation to end.

Thank you, blog readers, for perusing dozens and dozens of forecast updates and individual posts on the pictures in contention.

Let’s get to it! Here are my predictions for all feature-film categories with a runner-up named in each.

BEST PICTURE

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Nickel Boys

A Real Pain

The Substance

Wicked

Runner-Up: Sing Sing

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Sean Baker, Anora

Edward Berger, Conclave

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Runner-Up: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez

Mikey Madison, Anora

Demi Moore, The Substance

Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

Runner-Up: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Runner-Up: Daniel Craig, Queer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Ariane Grande, Wicked

Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov, Anora

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Runner-Up: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora

The Brutalist

A Real Pain

September 5

The Substance

Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Nickel Boys

Sing Sing

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Emilia Pérez

I’m Still Here

Kneecap

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Vermiglio

Runner-Up: Flow

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow

Inside Out 2

Memoir of a Snail

Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Moana 2

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Daughters

No Other Land

Porcelain War

Sugarcane

Will & Harper

Runner-Up: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

A Complete Unknown

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Nosferatu

Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST FILM EDITING

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Anora

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

A Different Man

Emilia Pérez

Nosferatu

The Substance

Wicked

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist

Challengers

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Nosferatu

Runner-Up: The Wild Robot

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez

“Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper

“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

“Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot

“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

Wicked

Runner-Up: Gladiator II

BEST SOUND

Blitz

A Complete Unknown

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Wicked

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Alien: Romulus

Better Man

Dune: Part Two

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Twisters

Runner-Up: Wicked

That works out to a final tally of these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

10 Nominations

The Brutalist

9 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Conclave

7 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, Wicked

5 Nominations

Anora, Nosferatu, The Substance

3 Nominations

A Real Pain

2 Nominations

The Apprentice, Gladiator II, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio

I will, of course, have reaction up Thursday with how I did and some commentary.

78th BAFTA Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 78th BAFTA Awards, airing February 16th, were unveiled today and we have another key Oscar precursor to pontificate about. I went 91 for 123 with Conclave (as I forecasted) leading all pictures in contention. It even managed to get 12 nods and that’s ahead of my call of 11. Let’s walk through each race with how I did and some general commentary.

Best Film

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez

How I Did: 4/5

I predicted The Substance over Unknown, which continues its highly impressive precursor run. This should come down to The Brutalist vs. Conclave unless the Brits really fall for Anora or Pérez.

Outstanding British Film

Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

How I Did: 9/10

I thought Civil War would make the cut instead of Love Lies Bleeding. As the only Best Film contender in this bunch, Conclave has an obvious edge.

Outstanding Debut By a British Writer, Director or Producer

Hoard, Kneecap, Monkey Man, Santosh, Sister Midnight

How I Did: 2/5

Oof. I went with Bring Them Down, Grand Theft Hamlet, and The Taste of Mango over Hoard, my alternate Monkey Man, and Sister Midnight. This is a pretty easy pick with Kneecap out front.

Children’s and Family Film

Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/4

I went with Young Woman and the Sea over Kingdom. This new category could go to Robot, but watch out for Flow or even Wallace.

Film Not in the English Language

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

How I Did: 4/5

I called a bit of an upset with La Chimera popping up in this quintet instead of Fig. The safe money is on Pérez for the victory.

Documentary

Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

No Other Land has dominated early critics groups and is the favorite.

Animated Film

Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/4

Like Children’s and Family Film, this could be a three-way battle between Flow, Wallace, and Robot. I predicted Memoir of a Snail instead of Inside Out 2.

Director

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

How I Did: 5/6

I feel like Villeneuve needed this to say viable in the Oscar convo and he gets in over my pick of Payal Kapadia for All We Imagine as Light. Even if it doesn’t win Best Film, Corbet is likely in the lead. Yet I wouldn’t discount Berger with the nomination leading Conclave.

Original Screenplay

Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

This is where Anora could get a prize.

Adapted Screenplay

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

How I Did: 4/5

Sing Sing joins the party over Wicked. This should be a Conclave win.

Actress

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)

How I Did: 5/6

I wouldn’t ignore the possibility of a surprise with Jean-Baptiste, but should be between Madison and Moore. Ronan finally gets some precursor attention over my pick of Kate Winslet in Lee.

Actor

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 5/6

Mr. Grant makes the sextet over the rather unexpected omission of Daniel Craig in Queer. Expect either Brody or Chalamet for the gold.

Supporting Actress

Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

How I Did: 4/6

Saldaña is the frontrunner. Curtis (fresh off her SAG nod) and Gomez compete instead of Michele Austin (Hard Truths) and Margaret Qualley (The Substance). Except for Grande and Saldaña, the battle for the three slots in this race at the Oscars is fascinating with several performers in contention.

Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 5/6

I thought maybe Denzel Washington would get his (somehow) first BAFTA nomination for Gladiator II. It didn’t happen and went to Clarence Maclin instead. Culkin is the frontrunner with Pearce as a potential spoiler.

Casting

Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap

How I Did: 2/5

This unpredictable race proved to be just that. I went with Blitz, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked and not The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, and Kneecap. The winner? Your guess is as good as mine. Let’s say Anora for now.

Cinematography

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu

How I Did: 4/5

Perez over Anora with The Brutalist or perhaps Conclave out front.

Costume Design

Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 2/5

Ouch. I said Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, and Gladiator II and not Blitz, A Complete Unknown or Conclave. This should be Wicked.

Editing

Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Kneecap

How I Did: 3/5

Predicted Challengers (which was blanked) and The Substance over Dune and Kneecap. Conclave could take this.

Make-Up and Hair

Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

Pérez over Beetlejuice as The Substance seeks the victory.

Original Score

The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/5

Nosferatu and Robot over Blitz and The Substance. Like Best Film, this might be between The Brutalist and Conclave.

Production Design

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

The Brutalist over Gladiator II (which had a poor showing today). This could be Wicked.

Sound

Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 2/5

Some real surprises here as Civil War, A Complete Unknown, and Emilia Pérez are out with Blitz, Gladiator II, and Wicked in. This should be Dune.

Special Visual Effects

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

Wicked instead of Alien: Romulus as Dune should get this (though Better Man has slight upset potential).

And there you have it! Keep an eye on the blog as we get closer to final Oscar predictions coming Sunday…

97th Academy Awards Predictions: January 10th Edition

Though it’s been less than two weeks since my previous Oscar forecast, a lot has occurred in that relatively short time frame. The Golden Globes aired. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled. SAG Awards nominations came out as did the DGA. These developments and more (including various critics groups announcing winners) have reshaped the race as we approach Oscar nomination morning.

Those nominations will be known on Sunday, January 19th. That is two days after the planned January 17th announcement and the delay was made due to the wildfires ravaging southern California. This is no surprise as the fires have also delayed PGA nominations and the airdate of the Critics Choice Awards.

The first Oscar predictions of 2025 will be my penultimate one and the last one that ranks contenders in the various categories. My plan is to have my final predictions up on Wednesday, January 15th.

So what are the biggest developments over the last few days? Demi Moore’s Golden Globe victory in Actress (Musical or Comedy) for The Substance causes me to elevate her to #1 in my Actress rankings over Mikey Madison (Anora), who had been perched in the top position for many weeks. The Directors Guild usually matches the Oscars 4 for 5, but the fact that they left off Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) helps cement his Oscar exclusion. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), fresh off his Globe victory, returns to #1 position over Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) who missed at SAG.

There are performers who could benefit from SAG love. They include Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis from The Last Showgirl, Jonathan Bailey in Wicked, and Jeremy Strong from The Apprentice. There are snubbed performers from SAG or who lost at the Globes whose Oscar inclusion seems more doubtful. The most notable example is Angelina Jolie (Maria) but the list also includes Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II), and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).

Indeed the Best Actress derby has been dramatically reshaped with Moore elevating from 3rd to 1st, Jolie dropping from 2nd to 6th, and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) entering my predicted quintet over Jolie and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths).

More changes are present in Supporting Actor as Yura Borisov (Anora) enters my five with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) out. I have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) still clinging to a nod though Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) appears hot on his heels.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)

6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sing Sing (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)

12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (+2)

13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)

14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)

8. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)

10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (E)

10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A Different Man

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hit Man

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Kneecap (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Flow (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Universal Language (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Dahomey (PR: 10) (+1)

10. From Ground Zero (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)

9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)

10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)

4. Daughters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)

7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Dahomey (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Union (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Hollywoodgate (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (+1)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Maria (PR: 4) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Wicked

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Substance (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)

10. September 5 (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Nickel Boys

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)

4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 8) (E)

9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Challengers (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emila Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Nosferatu (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Blitz (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)

4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)

7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Emila Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Wild Robot (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Alien: Romulus (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alien: Romulus (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Twisters (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

That works out to these movies receiving these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

10 Nominations

The Brutalist

9 Nominations

Conclave

8 Nominations

Wicked

6 Nominations

Anora, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two

5 Nominations

The Substance

4 Nominations

Gladiator II, Nosferatu

3 Nominations

Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

I’m Still Here, A Real Pain, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

All We Imagine as Light, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Porcelain War, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

77th Directors Guild of America Awards Nomination Reaction

The Directors Guild of America (DGA) is typically reliable for selecting four of the five eventual nominees at the Oscars. I suspect that might hold true this cycle. The filmmaking branch revealed their quintet of hopefuls today and they are:

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Sean Baker, Anora

Edward Berger, Conclave

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

The quartet of alphabetically early contenders are expected to make the final cut at the 97th Academy Awards while Mangold’s inclusion is more unexpected. He gets in over my pick of Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two and Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), my alternate.

I still wouldn’t rush to put Mangold in your Academy five, but it should be noted that Unknown is having an impressive run in the precursor season.

This is not good news for Villeneuve. If he can’t get DGA, the Academy might be an even larger hurdle. I suspect Fargeat may continue to be in my Oscar grouping. As for who wins this prize, Corbet looks to be the frontrunner.

Keep an eye on the blog for all major precursor action!

31st SAG Awards Nomination Reactions

Prior to its February 23rd airdate on Netflix with host Kristen Bell, nominations for the 31st SAG Awards were unveiled this morning. The planned in-person event revealing the nominees was scuttled due to the wildfires in southern California and were delivered via press release instead.

Bottom line – I went 22 for 30 in my predictions and there were some genuine shockers (particularly in the supporting contests). Let’s walk through each race with how I did and some commentary.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Nominees: Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

Pretty happy about this result! Unlike most SAG years, all five contenders here should make the list of the 10 BP hopefuls at the Oscars. Considering that Wicked led all pictures in terms of nominations, it could be out front though I wouldn’t discount Pérez.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

How I Did: 4/5

Angelina Jolie (Maria) is having a tough season lately and her Oscar chances are in serious jeopardy. She didn’t make the BAFTA long list and fell short to Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) at the Golden Globes in the dramatic lead actress competition. Now she misses the cut with SAG and it’s Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) getting in. Could Moore’s momentum after her Globes victory continue here or will it be Madison emerging victorious?

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Clarence Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

How I Did: 4/5

The core four (Brody, Chalamet, Domingo, Fiennes) are present but it is Daniel Craig getting the nod over my pick of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice. That fifth slot is up for grabs at Oscar while Brody and Chalamet could compete for the ultimate prize.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

How I Did: 3/5

The supporting races are where SAG really provide some surprises this time around with Barbaro and Curtis. They’re in over my forecasted nominees Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) and Isabella Rossellini (Conclave). I would’ve figured Margaret Qualley (The Substance) and Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) had better shots than Barbaro/Curtis so this is a bit out of left field. Expect this to be between Saldaña and Grande.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 2/5 (oof)

And we’re even more in unanticipated territory with Supporting Actor as Bailey, Borisov, and Strong (who was my alternate) are in with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) out. I genuinely am surprised that SAG left out Pearce and Washington. The former is considered Culkin’s main competitor this season. That may no longer be the case as Culkin could sweep the upcoming ceremonies. Side note – not a great morning for The Brutalist with Brody being the pic’s sole nominee.

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Nominees: Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Gladiator II, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

I went with Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga over Wicked. I would think The Fall Guy, which is about stunt performers, could be the selection.

And there you have it, folks! Keep an eye on the blog for all Oscar precursor chatter…

82nd Golden Globes Awards Reaction

Before we get to the headlines (and certainly there are), let’s dispense with some quick takes on the 82nd Golden Globes Awards ceremony. Nikki Glaser did a very good job hosting and I’d expect to see her back. Seth Rogen correctly pointed out that the camera angle on the presenters tonight was awkward. And Vin Diesel made the evening awkward too when he said hi from the stage to Dwayne Johnson. They famously did not get along working together on Fast and Furious franchise features.

Back to the awards. I went 9 for 15 in my picks. Quite frankly, I would’ve been pleased with getting over half in this unpredictable ceremony and I did so I’ll take it. Emilia Pérez had a big night with four victories. So did The Brutalist with three. Anora… not so much.

Jacques Audiard’s Pérez took three prizes I predicted it would in Non-English Language Film, Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña), and Original Song (“El Mal”). Yet I had it falling short to Sean Baker’s Anora for Best Musical/Comedy and it prevailed. Has Pérez‘s stock risen? Probably.

Those who have followed my Oscar predictions on the blog will notice I’ve never had Anora listed in first in Best Picture. A lot of other prognosticators have. I’m not patting myself on the back. This is one of the more unpredictable seasons in memory. I’ve just never bought the narrative that Anora will take the grand prize and tonight fuels it.

A bigger surprise than Anora losing Musical/Comedy, in my view, was Mikey Madison not taking Actress. That went instead to Demi Moore in The Substance, who gave the strongest acceptance speech of the night. You have to wonder if this makes Moore the frontrunner. I have had Madison listed for weeks in 1st place for the Academy’s Actress statue and that could change when I update my picks in the next couple of days (hopefully tomorrow). Anora also didn’t get Screenplay and I thought it would. That went instead to Conclave.

After Conclave‘s screenplay award, I thought maybe it would go onto take Best Drama. However, Globe voters opted for The Brutalist (which my was pick). Its maker Brady Corbet won Director. I also had it forecasted for Original Score but that went to Challengers in a surprise call. I’ve had The Brutalist placed in 1st for months in BP for the Oscars. Interestingly, in the previous ten years, only 3 GG Drama winners correlated with Oscar (Moonlight, Nomadland, last year’s Oppenheimer). I still think it’s the odds on favorite.

Adrien Brody did give The Brutalist a third Globe in Best Actor and I went with Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown. This could signal Brody’s performance will be favored in ceremonies to come. I also missed Best Actress (Drama). I went with Angelina Jolie in Maria while my runner-up Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) made the podium walk.

With Moore and Torres victorious over Madison and Jolie, the Oscar Best Actress is looking wide open with several hopefuls jockeying for position.

Let’s run down some races I got right. Kieran Culkin is your Supporting Actor for A Real Pain. The hard to figure out Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy derby is one I was lucky with when Sebastian Stan in A Different Man was picked. Wicked took the Cinematic and Box Office Achievement award. And I will pat myself on the back for going with Flow in Animated Feature instead of The Wild Robot.

So where do we stand now with Oscar as I prepare a new forecast? Anora is down. Emilia is up. The Brutalist holds strong. Demi Moore could be a real threat in Actress. And I think Dwayne Johnson still dislikes Vin Diesel…