Oscar Predictions: Come See Me in the Good Light

Come See Me in the Good Light premiered at Sundance back in January with Apple TV picking up distribution rights in the spring (a release date is yet TBD). Directed by Ryan White (best known for Good Night Oppy), Light focuses on the relationship between poets Andrea Gibson and Megan Falley after the former’s terminal cancer diagnosis. Gibson was in Park City for the unveiling of the documentary, but passed away two weeks ago.

Critical reaction has yielded 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Sara Beirelles is an executive producer and she sings the track “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet”. It is cowritten by Brandi Carlile (another exec producer). Tig Notaro is another well-known artist on the production team. I would anticipate Apple and the well-known contributors to mount campaigns in Documentary Feature and Original Song. The amount of exposure this receives should determine its success in both categories. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Your Place or Mine Review

Your Place or Mine features a greatest hits CD worth of tracks by The Cars while the movie never kicks into high gear. It never totally sputters either. Keeping the leads about 2800 miles apart for the vast duration might give off Sleepless in Seattle vibes, but you’ve got chemistry between Tom Hanks and Meg Ryan that surpasses that of Reese Witherspoon and Ashton Kutcher.

We meet Debbie (Witherspoon) and Peter (Kutcher) in 2003. He’s sporting a wallet chain and she’s in a WonderBra on the night they hook up after a crazy game of poker. The romance ceases after night one though they don’t lose it all. What follows is a close 20-year platonic relationship. He’s on the East Coast where his flings never exceed the six month mark. She’s on the West Coast with her teenage son (Wesley Kimmel). Her mountain climbing ex-hubby is off climbing mountains while her zany next door neighbor and part-time gardener (Steve Zahn) is always hanging around. A helicopter mom, Debbie is finally convinced to take her own flight to Brooklyn to complete a week-long accounting course. Peter hits L.A. to watch the kid.

Staying at each other’s abodes gives them fresh insights. They pride their friendship on being completely honest. It turns out this isn’t the case in ways large and small. Peter hasn’t completely given up his young 20s dream of being a novelist. Of course, the biggest diversion from the whole truth is they are madly in love and can’t admit it. I don’t think we need a SPOILER ALERT. They both try to avoid it. Debbie, with assistance from Peter’s ex-flame (Zoë Chao, quite funny), meets a dreamy publisher (Jesse Williams) for her first flirtation in some time. Meanwhile her babysitter’s best friend (the always game Tig Notaro) serves as Peter’s sounding board.

The directorial debut of Aline Brosh McKenna, she’s no stranger to writing hits in the genre like The Devil Wears Prada and 27 Dresses. 2003, shortly before those rom com entries, is about when Witherspoon and Kutcher were starting their known features in the field (Sweet Home Alabama for her, Just Married for him). It’s a tad surprising they never teamed up before.

Your Place or Mine imagines a glossy scenario where their version of happily ever after is delayed a couple of decades. The long wait includes the inability to truly judge their chemistry as the bulk of their interactions is via calls and texts. Contrary to The Cars songs that play, I guess it’s not what we needed and there’s scant magic. You might think it’s average at best.

** (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Your Place or Mine

Reese Witherspoon is the star and producer of Your Place or Mine, which is available for viewing in the comfort of your place (but not mine) on Netflix today. The rom com pairs her with Ashton Kutcher in the directorial debut from Aline Brosh McKenna. The supporting cast includes Jesse Williams, Zoë Chao, Tig Notaro, and Steve Zahn.

With an awards qualifying limited theatrical run, this isn’t an Oscar prediction posts as much as a Golden Globes one. Witherspoon has been nominated for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy on three occasions – 1999’s Election, 2001’s Legally Blonde, and 2005’s Walk the Line (where won the Globe and eventually the Oscar). Her sole nod in Actress (Drama) at the Globes is for 2014’s Wild (for which she received her second mention from the Academy).

The thought of Witherspoon garnering a fifth GG nom is feasible until you see the Rotten Tomatoes score. At a mere 35%, it’s highly doubtful this will be on the minds of any voters nearly a year from now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Am I Ok?

Comedian Tig Notaro and actress Stephanie Allynne, who are married in real life, direct the tale of a same sex couple in Am I Ok?, which debuted at Sundance. The dramedy stars Dakota Johnson and Sonoya Mizuno with a supporting cast featuring Jermaine Fowler, Kiersey Clemons, Molly Gordon, Sean Hayes, and Notaro herself.

Critical reaction stands at 83% on Rotten Tomatoes though there’s a few notices that skew negative. Johnson is having a busy Sundance as Cha Cha Real Smooth is being called a crowdpleaser where some reviews hail it as her career best work.

Am I Ok? is unlikely to nab any awards buzz. Johnson’s other effort could be a different story. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Army of the Dead

Zack Snyder’s zombie tale Army of the Dead hits hundreds of screens this weekend before its Netflix streaming premiere on May 21. Reviews are out and several indicate it’s a winner (especially the opening scene which is drawing raves). The Rotten Tomatoes score currently sits at 76%.

If an Oscar Watch post for this particular genre seems strange, I get it. I’m not talking about a Best Picture nod or lead actor recognition for Dave Bautista. However, some critics are pointing out Army‘s visuals. Just last year, the Netflix monster pic Love and Monsters scored a surprise nomination in Visual Effects.

Here’s the caveat: several contenders in the race from 2020 were pushed back to 2021. In other words, VE should be more of a crowded field this time around. That includes potential heavy hitters like Dune, Eternals, the fourth Matrix, Top Gun: Maverick, The Suicide Squad, and Spider-Man: No Way Home.

Having said that, if Netflix launches a serious campaign, Army could march to the shortlist in this specific category and a nod is not out of the question.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Army of the Dead Box Office Prediction

In a newsworthy announcement from this week, Zack Snyder’s Army of the Dead will roll out in hundreds of venues on May 14 prior to its Netflix debut one week later. The zombie thriller (sporting a reported budget of $90 million) stars Dave Bautista, Ella Purnell, Omari Hardwick, Ana de la Reguera, Theo Rossi, Hiroyuki Sanada, Tig Notrao, and Garret Dillahunt.

This is the first time where the streaming giant and some theater chains have agreed on a wider release plan. Cinemark and Alamo Drafthouse are just two companies that will be showing Snyder’s latest. The same cannot be said for AMC and Regal so that limits Army‘s capacity. While some Netflix titles have played on limited screens for awards consideration, the estimated 600 count here is a high mark.

Snyder’s name has been visible due to his reworking of 2017’s Justice League that recently hit HBO Max. That combined with its often popular genre could bring out eager fans who wish to get the jump on its streaming release. That said, 600 screens certainly limits its potential. There’s also the matter of Spiral, the reboot of the Saw franchise that could siphon viewers aware and appears poised to easily debut at #1.

Giving Army a per screen average of around $4,200 would result in a gross between $2-3 million and that’s what I’m envisioning.

Army of the Dead opening weekend prediction: $2.5 million

For my Spiral: From the Book of Saw prediction, click here:

Spiral Box Office Prediction

For my Those Who Wish Me Dead prediction, click here:

Those Who Wish Me Dead Box Office Prediction

For my Profile prediction, click here:

Profile Box Office Prediction

Instant Family Movie Review

There’s an air of authenticity to Instant Family as its director Sean Anders and his wife are foster parents in the real world. Is it also a big Hollywood comedy with famous movie stars that works overtime to tug those heartstrings? It is, but the mission is mostly accomplished by credits roll.

Pete (Mark Wahlberg) and Ellie Wagner (Rose Byrne) spend their days flipping houses and enjoying their child free upper middle class existence. A trip down the Internet wormhole gets Ellie intrigued in adopting a toddler. Pete gets on board in short order and we witness the steps needed to do so. This include a weeks long course led by two social workers played by Octavia Spencer and Tig Notaro. Both are rock solid casting choices. An interesting picture could certainly be made about the saints of that profession.

Pete and Ellie get more than they bargained for when teenage girl Lizzy (Isabela Moner) catches their attention. She has two younger siblings in tow and soon it’s a quintet filling a freshly refurbished abode. And there’s plenty of drama (with much humor mixed in) that cause the Wagners to question their new life direction. This isn’t simply a new project.

This is far from a hard-hitting expose on the foster care system. Yet the screenplay from Anders and John Morris doesn’t shy away from the issues that fill it, including addiction, abandonment, and self-worth. It walks a fine line between being effective or risking becoming too mushy for its own good. By the third act, the sentimentality is still strong with this one. However, I’d be deceptive if I said it hadn’t won me over. Much of that has to do with Moner’s touching performance as the untrusting youth and fierce protector of her siblings.

Anders knows this subject and even while there’s a polished Tinseltown shine covering it, his heart comes through. I left Family appreciative of the time spent with them.

*** (out of four)

Instant Family Box Office Prediction

Mark Wahlberg and Rose Byrne are a couple who bring in a trio of foster kids in next weekend’s comedy Instant Family. The pic reunites Wahlberg with director Sean Anders, who made both of the successful Daddy’s Home features. Costars include Isabela Moner, Octavia Spencer, and Tig Notaro.

Family was originally scheduled to hit screens in February 2019 before Paramount pushed up the date. It will try to bring in family audiences on a weekend where Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald opens directly against it and The Grinch will be in its sophomore frame. That could certainly limit the potential for a robust debut, but the studio will hope that word of mouth carries it to a leggy run over the holidays.

I’ll predict a high teens teens premiere is what we’ll see as the currently unknown buzz will determine the rest of its fate.

Instant Family opening weekend prediction: $19.4 million

For my Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/06/fantastic-beasts-the-crimes-of-grindelwald-box-office-prediction/

For my Widows prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/07/widows-box-office-prediction/

Dog Days Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (08/01/18): I am revising my estimate due to the film’s release on Wednesday next week, not Friday from $6.4 million down to $5.1 million.

An ensemble of familiar actors and an ensemble of canines come together for the family dramedy Dog Days, which hits theaters next weekend. The film is directed by Ken Marino, who last made the successful comedy How to Be a Latin Lover. Cast members include Eva Longoria, Nina Dobrev, Vanessa Hudgens, Lauren Lapkus, Thomas Lennon, Adam Pally, Rob Corddry, Tig Notaro, and Finn Wolfhard.

Movies dealing with man’s best friend can certainly post pleasing results, like Marley and Me and A Dog’s Purpose. Yet I don’t see Dog Days achieving their grosses. Its upstart studio LD Entertainment doesn’t exactly have a strong track record producing hits. A better comp here could be this May’s Show Dogs, which debuted to just $6 million.

I’ll say this manages to just outdo that number.

Dog Days opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $7.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)