Oscar Predictions: Lilo & Stitch

I have talked extensively on the blog about how live-action remakes of Disney pics have received a decent amount of nominations. Titles such as Alice in Wonderland, Cinderella, The Jungle Book, Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King, and Cruella lend themselves to races like Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, and Visual Effects. Even this year’s critical and box office misfire Snow White could land a mention or two.

So where does Lilo & Stitch fit into the equation? Out this weekend, it live-action updates the 2002 original which scored a Best Animated Feature nod. Dean Fleischer Camp directs a cast including Maia Keoloha, Chris Sanders, Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Zach Galifianakis, Billy Magnussen, Courtney B. Vance, Hannah Waddingham, Tia Carrere, Amy Hill, and Jason Scott Lee.

Critical reaction is fair with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 55 Metacritic. This certainly won’t be the first Mouse House feature in this sub genre to land top-of-the-line attention. It also doesn’t correlate well to the tech races mentioned above. Chances are this will receive one less nomination than its source material. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Lilo & Stitch Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (05/21/25): I am upping my Lilo & Stitch estimate considerably from $118.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $143.7 million from Friday to Monday to $159.7 million for the three-day and $196.6 million for the four-day. That would easily be a new Memorial Day weekend record.

23 summers ago, Disney’s animated Lilo & Stitch narrowly opened in second to Minority Report with Tom Cruise. This Memorial Day weekend, the Mouse House’s live-action (and also animated) remake will attempt to outpace Cruise’s Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. That’s a mission it should achieve with room to spare.

Dean Fleischer Camp, maker of the acclaimed Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, is behind the camera. Chris Sanders, who wrote and directed the 2002 original, still provides the voice of Stitch with Maia Keoloha as Lilo. The supporting cast includes Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Billy Magnussen, Hannah Waddingham, Courtney B. Vance, Zach Galifianakis, Tia Carrere, Amy Hill, and Jason Scott Lee.

Expectations are high for a project that once was anticipated to be a Disney+ streaming premiere. Tracking suggests a nine digit performance over the holiday frame. The studio is no stranger to Memorial Day outputs and that includes these remakes. In 2019, Aladdin took in $91 million from Friday to Sunday and $116 million when factoring in Monday. Two years ago, The Little Mermaid made $95 million for the three-day and $118 million over four.

Lilo took in $273 million worldwide for its run nearly a quarter century ago and spawned direct-to-video sequels. A nostalgia factor and a dearth of competition for family audiences (as A Minecraft Movie winds down) could mean an even stronger opening than the aforementioned titles. I’ll say it manages to get close to $120 million from Friday to Sunday and over $140 million adding Monday. That would give it the second all-time Memorial weekend behind Top Gun: Maverick (more Cruise comparisons!) and just ahead of Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men’s Chest.

Lilo & Stitch opening weekend prediction: $159.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $196.6 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning prediction, click here:

For my The Last Rodeo prediction, click here:

For my Friendship prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Waltzing with Brando

An unexpected development when the Academy released their shortlists in various races a few days back was Marlon Brando popping up in contention. And that’s not just because the legendary and quirky actor has been dead for over 20 years.

Waltzing with Brando is directed by Bill Fishman with Billy Zane playing Brando in the late 60s and early 70s when he was making The Godfather and Last Tango in Paris. He was also building an island in Tahiti and that’s where the picture focuses with Napoleon Dynamite‘s Jon Heder as his beleaguered architect. Costars include Richard Dreyfuss, Camille Razat, Tia Carrere, and James Jagger (son of Mick).

Brando premiered at the Torino Film Festival late last month. It doesn’t even have a Rotten Tomatoes page yet. Yet it surprisingly made the ten finalists in the Makeup & Hairstyling race along with anticipated heavy hitters like The Substance, Dune: Part Two, and Wicked. The fact that it reached the 10 hopefuls makes you naturally wonder if it could end up in the ultimate contending quintet. The trailer does indicate that the artists succeed in making Zane look like Brando. I’m not projecting it will, but it certainly has a 10% shot. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Easter Sunday Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (08/03): I am revising my projection downward from $8.2M to $5.6M as buzz for Easter Sunday simply hasn’t seemed to pick up since last week.

If it’s early August, it must be Easter Sunday at the box office! Not so much, but that’s the title of the upcoming comedy out August 5th. The film serves as the first major cinematic starring vehicle for Jo Koy, known for his Netflix standup specials. Jay Chandrasekhar, a member of the Broken Lizard troupe that helmed Super Troopers and its sequel, directs. Costars include Jimmy O. Yang, Tia Carrere, Brandon Wardell, Tiffany Haddish, and Lou Diamond Phillips.

Playing a struggling comedian visiting the family for the holiday, Sunday is hoping to book a diverse audience. Koy’s Filipino roots could bring in a demographic underserved at multiplexes.

Early prognoses have this getting past double digits by a slim margin. That sounds doable to me and it could even have the capacity to go higher. I could also see it falling just under that and there’s where I’m currently at.

Easter Sunday opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million

For my Bullet Train prediction, click here:

Bullet Train Box Office Prediction

This Day in Movie History: January 2

This day in Movie History – January 2 – Peter Jackson’s final installment in his Lord of the Rings trilogy, The Return of the King, would top the box office for the third weekend in a row, grossing over $28 million. This gave it $290M in just three weeks and it would end its domestic run at $377M, out grossing its two predecessors. King would go on to win Best Picture and Director at the Oscars. And the more things change, the more they stay the same. Exactly a decade later, the director’s second Tolkien trilogy The Hobbit is scoring similar feats. The second installment in the series The Desolation of Smaug is currently #1 for its third weekend, though its taken in approximately $100 million less in the same time frame as King did.

As for birthdays, Tia Carrere turns 47 today. You may remember her best as Mike Myers’ love interest in 1992’s Wayne’s World and its sequel the following year. Her exposure from those hits led her to starring alongside such heavy hitters as Sean Connery in 1993’s Rising Sun and Arnold Schwarzenegger in 1994’s True Lies. And then… well she went from Connery and Arnold to Pauly Shore and Jon Lovitz. Her mid 90s filmography included Jury Duty with Shore and High School High with Lovitz. Her movie career never recovered, but she did recently last five weeks on Donald Trump’s “Celebrity Apprentice” (!).

Cuba Gooding Jr. is 46 today. He’s another performer to have hit it big in the 90s and then see his career fizzle. His big break came with 1991’s Boyz N The Hood and that led to roles in A Few Good Men, Judgment Night, and Outbreak. In 1996, Cuba won Supporting Actor at the Oscars for his role as Rod Tidwell in Cameron Crowe’s Jerry Maguire. It looked good for him after that and he appeared in high profile pics including As Good As It Gets, What Dreams May Come, and Men of Honor. By the early 2000s, things had taken a turn for the worse when Gooding starred in bombs including Snow Dogs and Boat Trip. Recently, however, he’s had a decent comeback with supporting roles in movies like American Gangster, Red Tails, and Lee Daniels’ The Butler.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two:

Tia Carrere was in True Lies with Jamie Lee Curtis

Jamie Lee Curtis was in Trading Places with Eddie Murphy

Eddie Murphy was in Norbit with Cuba Gooding Jr.

And that’s today – January 2 – in Movie History!