I continue with my Oscar Watch posts for pictures sending screeners late in the season and we arrive at one with real potential – Shaka King’s Judas and the Black Messiah. The Warner Bros production hits theaters and HBO Max simultaneously on February 12. It stars Lakeith Stanfield as an undercover FBI informant tasked to take down Black Panther head Fred Hampton (Daniel Kaluuya).
While the review embargo is still intact, social media reactions are available today. They point to a feeling many had when the first trailer debuted months ago in that Judas could nab several nominations come Oscar morning. In particular, Kaluuya’s performance (being campaigned for in Supporting Actor) is being highly praised. This would be his second nomination behind his lead work in 2017’s Get Out. His inclusion in the supporting field appears not only likely, but he could win. I could foresee a narrative in which Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) and Kaluuya vie for the prize and this storyline could play out until April.
Stanfield is in the Best Actor mix, but his final five status is much more questionable. Like Best Actress in 2020, lead actor may already have four performances that are “in”. That would be Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), and Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods). The fifth slot could be a toss-up between several performers including Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Gary Oldman (Mank), and Steven Yeun (Minari). Today’s buzz suggests adding Stanfield to that list is warranted.
Same goes for Supporting Actress with Dominique Fishback as several posts are highlighting her work. This year’s lineup appears in flux and there’s room for last minute surprises in that particular field. She will be one to keep an eye on.
As for Best Picture, Judas has been kept out of my predicted nine until word of mouth was available. When my estimates are updated on Thursday, it could well make its initial appearance. King’s direction is also on the table for final five status. Several down the line races are possible including Cinematography (also being mentioned a lot), Editing, Production Design, and Original Song (with a composition by H.E.R.). Warner Bros seems to know it has a real hopeful on its hands as this has been added to the Sundance schedule later this month.
Bottom line: the social media reaction indicates critics aren’t betrayed by Judas and it has officially announced its way into Academy consideration. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
My initial 2021 Oscar predictions for the films released in 2020 (and January and February of this year) have arrived! And the new year’s estimates brings the first change in my nine Best Picture nominees in many weeks. Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman now joins the group and that leaves out News of the World.
In Best Director, I have George C. Wolfe now in for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and that drops Lee Isaac Chung for Minari. Another change is in Supporting Actor with Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7) back in the final five over Sound of Metal‘s Paul Raci. In Original Screenplay, Da 5 Bloods makes it back ahead of Soul.
You can read all the movement below! Happy New Year and I’ll be back at it next week…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. Minari (PR: 5)
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
7. The Father (PR: 6)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
9. Promising Young Woman (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
10. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
11. News of the World (PR: 9)
12. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
13. Soul (PR: 13)
14. First Cow (PR: 15)
15. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 14)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 4)
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
8. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
9. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
10. Darius Marder, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)
8. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 9)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 8)
10. Robin Wright, Land (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
8. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
9. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 8)
10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 6)
7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
8. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 10)
9. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
10. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
9. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
4. Minari (PR: 3)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 5)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah(PR: 8)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 7)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. The Father (PR: 2)
3. One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 6)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mauritanian
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 7)
8. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Connected
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Time (PR: 2)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. The Dissident (PR: 4)
5. Boys State (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Crip Camp (PR: 7)
8. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 9)
9. Collective (PR: 8)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 6)
4. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 3)
5. A Sun (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
7. Collective (PR: 5)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 7)
9. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 5)
7. Minari (PR: 6)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)
7. News of the World (PR: 6)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. The Glorias (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 4)
4. The Father (PR: 3)
5. News of the World (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
10. Tenet (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
5. Pinocchio (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: 6)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
8. Mulan (PR: 7)
9. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Emma (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 4)
4. Minari (PR: 5)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 8)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 3)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 8)
8. “Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: 7)
9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
10. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Free” from The One and Only Ivan
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
3. Mulan (PR: 2)
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)
5. Emma (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 9)
8. Tenet (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. Soul (PR: 7)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 5)
8. Greyhound (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Prom (PR: 9)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Da 5 Bloods
Mulan
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 6)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
8. Greyhound (PR: 9)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
10. Dolittle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mank
And that equates to the following numbers in nominations for films:
11 Nominations
Mank
9 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods
4 Nominations
Minari, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, News of the World, Promising Young Woman, Soul
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Emma, Judas and the Black Messiah, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, First Cow, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, Night of the Kings, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Pinocchio, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
My final Oscars forecast for 2020 sees no changes in my nine Best Picture nominees (which has remained consistent for weeks), but some movement in other key races.
In Best Director, I have had David Fincher (Mank) listed at #1 for months, but that switches today as he falls to second with Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) taking the top spot. If she manages to take gold in April, Zhao would be just the second female to win the award behind Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker in 2009. Additionally, Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) is in my final five for the first time, replacing Regina King for One Night in Miami.
While there are no changes in the lead acting competitions, the supporting players are a different story. Youn Yuh-jung in Minari sees her first appearance in my five Supporting Actress hopefuls and that takes out Helena Zengel in News of the World. Same goes for Paul Raci in Supporting Actor for Sound of Metal and that’s to the detriment of Mark Rylance in The Trial of the Chicago 7.
You can peruse all the rest of the activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. Minari (PR: 7)
6. The Father (PR: 5)
7. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
9. News of the World (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)
11. Promising Young Woman (PR: 13)
12. Sound of Metal (PR: 10)
13. Soul (PR: 11)
14. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 14)
15. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mauritanian
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
9. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)
5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)
7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
8. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 10)
9. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 9)
10. Robin Wright, Land (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
8. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 8)
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
8. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 9)
9. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
10. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
7. Sound of Metal (PR: 7)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
On the Rocks
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. The Father (PR: 3)
3. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Predicted Nominees:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. The Mauritanian (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)
7. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 6)
8. Connected (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Trolls World Tour
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Time (PR: 2)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. The Dissident (PR: 4)
5. Boys State (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 8)
7. Crip Camp (PR: 6)
8. Collective (PR: 7)
9. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 10)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 3)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
5. Collective (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Night of the Kings (PR: 5)
7. Dear Comrades! (PR: 7)
8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 6)
9. A Sun (PR: 8)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Tenet (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Minari (PR: 5)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
5. Mulan (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 6)
7. The Prom (PR: 7)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
10. Ammonite (PR: 9)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Nomadland (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
8. News of the World (PR: 6)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tenet (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: 4)
7. Mulan (PR: 7)
8. Pinocchio (PR: 8)
9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Prom (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
News of the World
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 3)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Minari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
8. Tenet (PR: 7)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
3. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: 8)
8. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 9)
9. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
“(If Only You Could) Save Me” from Mank
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Mulan (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 3)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma (PR: 10)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
9. News of the World (PR: 6)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Tenet (PR: 2)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
7. Soul (PR: 7)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)
9. The Prom (PR: 9)
10. Mulan (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 6)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 5)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
8. Mank (PR: 7)
9. Greyhound (PR: 9)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
And that equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Minari
4 Nominations
News of the World, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Sound of Metal, Mulan, Soul, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Collective, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, Emma, First Cow, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, My Little Sister, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
The pre Christmas Oscar estimates are in! While my nine predicted Best Picture nominees remains the same (as they have for weeks), pay attention to Sound of Metal rising as it now ranks 10th and just on the outside looking in. Additionally, supporting players Paul Raci and Olivia Cooke are also looking like serious possibilities in those categories even if they’re not (yet) in the final five.
In Supporting Actor, Chadwick Boseman is back in (over Bill Murray in On the Rocks) as I’m feeling more confident of a double nomination for the late performer.
The fifth spot in Best Actress continues to fluctuate and this week we have Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) in that position over Michelle Pfeiffer’s work in French Exit.
Best Actor brings the first mention of Mads Mikkelsen’s role in Another Round at slot #8 with Ben Affleck (The Way Back) out of the top 10.
Adapted Screenplay sees its first look at First Cow in the projected cut and that takes out News of the World.
You can read all the activity below and I’ll have my final predictions for the calendar year up next weekend!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
5. The Father (PR: 7)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
7. Minari (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Sound of Metal (PR: 14)
11. Soul (PR: 11)
12. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
13. Promising Young Woman (PR: 13)
14. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
15. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
9. Darius Marder, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)
7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 8)
8. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 7)
9. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 10)
10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
8. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
10. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 10)
8. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 9)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
8. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 6)
9. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 10)
10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
7. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)
10. On the Rocks (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Palm Springs
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. First Cow (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 5)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. The Mauritanian (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
8. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Demonslayer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Connected
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Time (PR: 3)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 4)
4. The Dissident (PR: 2)
5. Boys State (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crip Camp (PR: 6)
7. Collective (PR: 8)
8. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 7)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
10. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
76 Days
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 5)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
5. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 6)
7. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)
8. A Sun (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Collective (PR: 7)
10. Notturno (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Charlatan
Atlantis
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. Minari (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 5)
5. The United vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. The Prom (PR: 8)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
9. Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Woman 1984
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Nomadland (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 5)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
9. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tenet
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
4. Mank (PR: 6)
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
7. Mulan (PR: 7)
8. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Pinocchio (PR: 8)
10. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emma
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
3. Soul (PR: 2)
4. News of the World (PR: 3)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Minari (PR: 8)
7. Tenet (PR: 7)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “(If Only You Could) Save Me” from Mank (PR: 8)
8. “Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Dropped Out:
“Free” from The One and Only Ivan
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Mulan (PR: 3)
3. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 8)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. The Prom (PR: 10)
10. Emma (PR: 6)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 2)
2. Tenet (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 1)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. Soul (PR: 5)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Woman 1984
Greyhound
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
5. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 6)
7. Mank (PR: 7)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
9. Greyhound (PR: 9)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
And that equates to the following numbers in nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami
5 Nominations
News of the World
4 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Midnight Sky
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Soul
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Mulan, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, Emma, First Cow, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984
The picture became a bit clearer in my view this week as The Midnight Sky and News of the World both had their review embargoes lifted. As I see it, News solidified itself as a player in multiple categories including Best Picture. Sky, on the other hand, will likely only contend for some technical races due to its mixed reaction.
My nine estimated BP nominees has stayed remarkably consistent over the past several weeks. We shall see how unscreened late comers such as The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Judas and the Black Messiah, and The Mauritanian factor in once eyes are on them.
There’s only two significant changes in the main races as I’ve put Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) back in the Actress fold, replacing Meryl Streep in The Prom. We will see if this holds as I always feel a bit skittish about taking Meryl out. In Adapted Screenplay, News of the World returns to the five and that displaces I’m Thinking of Ending Things.
And while I’m not projecting that Sound of Metal will get more than I said last week (Best Actor and Sound nods), it does seem to be a picture on the rise.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
6. Minari (PR: 7)
7. The Father (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
11. Soul (PR: 11)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
13. Promising Young Woman (PR: 14)
14. Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Prom (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
9. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 8)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
7. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 5)
8. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 8)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Tom Holland, Cherry
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
8. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 2)
4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 7)
7. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
10. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 4)
5. Promising Young Woman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
9. On the Rocks (PR: 9)
10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Supernova
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 5)
8. First Cow (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Mauritanian (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. Connected (PR: 8)
8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 7)
9. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Lupin III: The First
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. The Dissident (PR: 5)
3. Time (PR: 2)
4. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
5. Boys State (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crip Camp (PR: 4)
7. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 7)
8. Collective (PR: 8)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
10. 76 Days (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
5. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 6)
7. Collective (PR: 8)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 7)
9. Charlatan (PR: 9)
10. Atlantis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Notturno
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
10. Minari (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 4)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
5. Mulan (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 8)
8. The Prom (PR: 7)
9. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 4)
4. Nomadland (PR: 3)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. Tenet (PR: 9)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: 3)
7. Mulan (PR: 8)
8. Pinocchio (PR: 7)
9. Emma (PR: 9)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Woman 1984
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Soul (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
7. Tenet (PR: 8)
8. Minari (PR: 10)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
5. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 8)
7. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 10)
8. “(If Only You Could) See Me” from Mank (PR: 7)
9. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 6)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Love Myself” from The High Note
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 4)
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma (PR: 5)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 3)
8. News of the World (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. The Prom (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Woman 1984
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Sound of Metal (PR: 2)
3. Tenet (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 8)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 5)
9. Greyhound (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Prom
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 2)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 1)
3. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 3)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 5)
7. Mank (PR: 9)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
9. Greyhound (PR: 7)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
And my latest estimates have these movies garnering the following numbers for nominations:
11 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, News of the World, Nomadland
5 Nominations
One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Hillbilly Elegy, The Midnight Sky, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Minari, Mulan, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984
I took a little Turkey Day hiatus from my Oscar estimates, but I’m back at it today with fresh predictions! The major categories have stayed the same (albeit with some ranking movement) with one notable exception. In Best Actress, I have moved both Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) and Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) out of the top five in favor of Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) and Meryl Streep (The Prom).
We also have changes in both Screenplay races. In Original, Promising Young Woman (which seems to be gaining steam) is elevated over Da 5 Bloods. In Adapted, I’m Thinking of Ending Things gets the 5 spot and replaces News of the World.
You can peruse all the movement below and I’ll be back at it next week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Nomadland (PR: 2)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
6. The Father (PR: 5)
7. Minari (PR: 7)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
11. Soul (PR: 10)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
13. The Prom (PR: 14)
14. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Midnight Sky (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
First Cow
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 6)
5. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
8. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 4)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Colin Firth, Supernova
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
9. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, The Prom
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 2)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
7. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 7)
8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)
9. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Shia LaBeouf, Pieces of a Woman
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 4)
5. Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
9. On the Rocks (PR: 8)
10. Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 5)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
8. First Cow (PR: 8)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)
10. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 8)
7. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 7)
8. Connected (PR: 5)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
10. Lupin III: The First (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Time (PR: 4)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)
4. Crip Camp (PR: 3)
5. The Dissident (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Boys State (PR: 7)
7. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
8. Collective (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
10. 76 Days (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
MLK/FBI
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 7)
5. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
7. Dear Comrades! (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Collective (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Charlatan (PR: 10)
10. Notturno (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Life Ahead
The Disciple
Atlantis
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
10. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 5)
4. Emma (PR: 3)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)
7. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
8. News of the World (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca
Ammonite
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
9. Tenet (PR: 8)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
7. Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mulan (PR: 7)
9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
The Trial of the Chicago 7
News of the World
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Soul (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
8. Tenet (PR: 6)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Minari (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 6)
7. “(If Only You Could) Save Me” from Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
9. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
“Carried Me with You” from Onward
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
3. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
4. Mulan (PR: 2)
5. Emma (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
9. The Prom (PR: 10)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
3. Tenet (PR: 1)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
5. News of the World (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Soul (PR: 3)
8. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Greyhound
Da 5 Bloods
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
2. Tenet (PR: 1)
3. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 7)
4. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)
5. Mulan (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
7. Greyhound (PR: 4)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)
9. Mank (PR: 10)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)
And that equates to the following films garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, News of the World, Nomadland
5 Nominations
The Midnight Sky, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, Soul
2 Nominations
Emma, Minari, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, I’m No Longer Here, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Prom, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984
We have new #1’s in three of the four acting derbies in my weekly Oscar prediction updates! Let’s break it down:
The reviews for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom have gone out of their way to praise the work of Chadwick Boseman. Best Actor now appears to be a race between the late performer and Anthony Hopkins in The Father. I have had Hopkins listed in first place for months at this point, but this changes today. That said, this is a competition that could come down to the wire.
In Best Actress, I have kept Viola Davis atop the list. However, while critics have lauded her in the title role of Ma Rainey, Vanessa Kirby’s work in Pieces of a Woman seems to gathering buzz. I thought about putting her in the pole position and we’ll see how this plays out in the coming weeks.
Ironically, the placement of Boseman at #1 in Best Actor drops him from 1st to 6th in Supporting Actor for Da 5 Bloods. This currently puts Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) on top for the first time in a seemingly wide open field. I have also dropped David Strathairn (Nomadland) from the five. Additionally, while I am waiting for Warner Bros to confirm, I am putting Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) back in this field as opposed to lead. So it’s him and Bill Murray (On the Rocks) back in the fold.
Last week, the poor reviews for Hillbilly Elegy caused me to take Glenn Close from #1 to #4. Like Supporting Actor, this race looks like anyone’s for the taking. I am elevating the veteran actress back to 1st as I could envision her overdue factor overtaking the bad critical reaction to the film itself. Also I’ve put Helena Zengel (News of the World) back in over Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari).
There’s also a change in Best Director with Florian Zeller (The Father) in for the first time over Lee Isaac Chung (Minari). Finally, there’s some release date news. Amazon Prime has moved Coming 2 America from December 2020 to March 2021. That takes it out of contention (where it could have played in Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling). And Warner Bros confirmed that Wonder Woman 1984 will receive a Christmas Day HBO Max streaming premiere. I don’t yet have it in the final five, but it could show up in Visual Effects.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. The Father (PR: 5)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. Minari (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Soul (PR: 10)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
13. The Midnight Sky (PR: 14)
14. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
15. First Cow (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
The White Tiger
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 5)
8. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 7)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
4. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 5)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
7. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
8. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 6)
10. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 8)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 9)
9. Colin Firth, Supernova (PR: 10)
10. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (moved to Supporting)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 4)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 5)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 6)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Nicole Kidman, The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Swankie, Nomadland
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
2. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
4. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 1)
7. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 8)
8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 5)
9. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
10. Shia LaBeouf, Pieces of a Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
8. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
9. Sound of Metal (PR: 10)
10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
8. First Cow (PR: 9)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
10. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The White Tiger
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Connected (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
7. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 7)
8. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)
10. Lupin III: The First (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)
3. Crip Camp (PR: 3)
4. Time (PR: 4)
5. The Dissident (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Boys State (PR: 7)
8. 76 Days (PR: 9)
9. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 3)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 7)
4. The Life Ahead (PR: 4)
5. The Disciple (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m No Longer Here (PR: Not Ranked)
7. My Little Sister (PR: 6)
8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
9. Atlantis (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Charlatan (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
New Order
True Mothers
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)
5. Mulan (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rebecca (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 7)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ammonite (PR: 10)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Coming 2 America
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Tenet (PR: 8)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 4)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 3)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
7. Mulan (PR: 5)
8. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Coming 2 America
Emma
Ammonite
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 4)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 3)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 7)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Minari (PR: 5)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
10. Ammonite (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Hear My Voice” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
8. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
10. “Carried Me with You” from Onward (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Love Myself” from The High Note
“Never Break” from Giving Voice
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Mulan (PR: 3)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
4. News of the World (PR: 8)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
8. Rebecca (PR: 5)
9. Emma (PR: 4)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Soul (PR: 5)
4. Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
8. News of the World (PR: 6)
9. Greyhound (PR: 7)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 4)
4. Greyhound (PR: 3)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
7. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mulan (PR: 6)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)
10. Mank (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Dolittle
And that breaks down to the following number of nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Mank
10 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
News of the World
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Mulan, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Connected, Crip Camp, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
Back at it again with another round of weekly Oscar predictions and there are changes to be discussed in every major category! We begin with the grand prize – Best Picture. For the third week in a row, we have a new #1 as I’m elevating The Trial of the Chicago 7 to front runner status for the first time. It displaces Nomadland, which falls to 2nd position while Mank goes from 2nd to 3rd.
While Trial gets top billing, I am still placing David Fincher at #1 for director as I believe that could be a bit of a career achievement recognition. As stated last week, I do think Chloe Zhao could be hot on his heels. It does feel a bit strange to have Trial as the Picture favorite while not believing Aaron Sorkin will take Director, but here we are in this strange 2020 Oscar season. Speaking of that race, I now have Lee Isaac Chung for the fast rising Minari over Paul Greengrass for News of the World.
Moving on, the review embargo lifted this week for Hillbilly Elegy and the results weren’t pretty. The Netflix title stands at just 30% on Rotten Tomatoes and that takes it out of my top 15 for Picture and top 10 in Adapted Screenplay. It also hurts the chances of its leads. Amy Adams drops out of the top 5 for Actress and that’s to the benefit of another Netflix entry with Sophia Loren in The Life Ahead. Glenn Close has been listed at #1 in Supporting Actress since I began these posts in late August. This too has changed in a currently wide open Supporting Actress field. She drops from #1 to #4, but the irony is I still think she could win. However, it’s Amanda Seyfried in Mank that vaults to #1 with Olivia Colman (The Father) and Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman) following. There’s another move in Supporting Actress with Yuh-Joun Youn for Minari in over Helena Zengel for News of the World.
In Best Actor, it’s Riz Ahmed back in the final five and that takes out Kingsley Ben-Adir in One Night in Miami. In Supporting Actor, I have David Strathairn (Nomadland) back in the predicted quintet and that drops Bill Murray (On the Rocks) to sixth. And I am starting to buy into the theory that Chadwick Boseman could be victorious in that race for Da 5 Bloods with Anthony Hopkins a seeming favorite in Best Actor for The Father. Boseman is now #1 for supporting.
Finally, it was announced that Supernova will campaign Colin Firth for Best Actor with Stanley Tucci in supporting. They are both listed in the top ten, but I believe it’s Tucci that could potentially see a rise from his #8 spot.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 3)
2. Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. The Father (PR: 7)
6. Minari (PR: 8)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 5)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Soul (PR: 12)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)
13. The White Tiger (PR: 14)
14. The Midnight Sky (PR: 15)
15. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hillbilly Elegy
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
5. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 4)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
9. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
4. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
5. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 8)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
8. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
8. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
9. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 9)
10. Colin Firth, Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
George Clooney, The Midnight Sky
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
4. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
5. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 6)
7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United State vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Swankie, Nomadland (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, The Prom
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
3. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
7. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
8. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Charles Dance, Mank
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Palm Springs
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
8. The White Tiger (PR: 9)
9. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hillbilly Elegy
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 8)
7. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 10)
8. Connected (PR: 6)
9. Lupin III: The First (PR: 7)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 2)
2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 1)
3. Crip Camp (PR: 3)
4. Time (PR: 7)
5. The Dissident (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Boys State (PR: 5)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
9. 76 Days (PR: 9)
10. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. New Order (PR: 2)
3. Another Round (PR: 3)
4. The Life Ahead (PR: 4)
5. The Disciple (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. My Little Sister (PR: 5)
7. Night of the Kings (PR: 7)
8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 9)
9. Charlatan (PR: Not Ranked)
10. True Mothers (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Atlantis
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 4)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rebecca (PR: 5)
7. News of the World (PR: 8)
8. Coming 2 America (PR: 6)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Tenet (PR: 7)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
4. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
5. Mulan (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Coming 2 America (PR: 5)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
News of the World
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Soul (PR: 2)
3. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
4. News of the World (PR: 3)
5. Minari (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
7. Tenet (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
9. Ammonite (PR: 5)
10. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
8. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: 8)
9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 9)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 3)
4. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Rebecca (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
8. News of the World (PR: 4)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 2)
3. Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
5. Soul (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 3)
7. Greyhound (PR: 8)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Greyhound (PR: 3)
4. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 4)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
8. Mank (PR: 6)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)
10. Dolittle (PR: 10)
And that shakes out to these features nabbing the following number of nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Minari, News of the World, One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
The Midnight Sky, Soul
3 Nominations
The Life Ahead, Mulan
2 Nominations
Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, French Exit, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, New Order, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Rebecca, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
Junebug. Doubt. The Fighter. The Master. American Hustle. Vice.
The World According to Garp. The Big Chill. The Natural. Fatal Attraction. Dangerous Liaisons. Albert Nobbs. The Wife.
These 13 pictures represent, respectively, the number of Oscar nominations received by Amy Adams and Glenn Close. And there’s not a podium trip for either performer in the whole batch. It’s certainly fair to say that these actresses are both considered overdue for Academy gold. So it is no surprise that their headlining roles in Ron Howard’s Hillbilly Elegy have been circled for consideration of Oscar prognosticators for many months.
Based on J.D. Vance’s hugely popular 2016 bestseller, the adaptation hits Netflix on November 24th. The review embargo ended today. The critics have spoken and done so rather sharply. At press time, the Rotten Tomatoes score stands at a troubling 19%. However, before you write off the pic’s chances for any awards attention, you have to dig a bit deeper.
The trailer released weeks ago was met with some derision, but also some chatter that Close in particular has a very baity part for voters. The reviews today solidify that. I have had Close perched at #1 for some time in my weekly estimates in Supporting Actress. It is certainly possible that she stays right there when I update my projections on Friday. Ironically, her biggest competition may come from Olivia Colman in The Father. For those with short memories, it was Colman in The Favourite who scored an upset win over Close for The Wife in Best Actress just two years ago. There’s also Amanda Seyfried (Mank) generating solid buzz. That said, the 8th time may just finally be the charm for Close. Whether she can overcome the otherwise poor reaction from the critical community will be the question moving forward.
As for Adams, it’s more murky. Best Actress in 2020 is already shaping up as a crowded field. I’ve had Adams listed in third position for about a month, but now I’m questioning whether she even makes the final cut. Look for her to be in the 5-7 range when my Friday post is up and running.
Elegy could follow the example of 2013’s August: Osage County where its only nominations come for its two high-profile actresses (in that case it was Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts). The mostly weak reviews probably take it out of contention for Picture and Director. Same goes for the Adapted Screenplay by Vanessa Taylor (who was nominated in 2017 for her Original Screenplay in The Shape of Water). Lucky for Netflix, it has plenty of product that does appear headed for Best Picture inclusion (from The Trial of the Chicago 7 to Mank to Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). There are two more nods that are feasible: Hans Zimmer’s score and its Makeup and Hairstyling.
Bottom line: Close is still a contender, but that’s the only category where I believe a victory is even imaginable. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
My weekly Oscar predictions begin with a blogger’s note. For the past two and a half months, I’ve been providing these updates each Thursday. This will now switch to every Friday (busy work schedule is the reason).
And we move on with a significant development in the rankings. For the first time since I began these predictions, the #1 slot for Best Picture is not named Mank. The David Fincher Netflix pic had its official review embargo lift today. Some of the critical reaction is excellent. Other write-ups, while still overwhelmingly positive, call into question whether this will take the biggest prize of all. It certainly still could in my estimation, but I’m currently giving an ever so slight advantage to Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland (and with The Trial of the Chicago 7 not far behind). I am still listing Fincher in top position with Director as I could envision a victory being a partial career achievement award. That said, Zhao is right on his heels as she would be the second female filmmaker ever to take the gold.
We continue to Best Actor as Amazon has confirmed the acting placements for the performers in Regina King’s One Night in Miami. Of note is that Kingsley Ben-Adir will be campaigned for in Best Actor with Leslie Odom Jr. vying for Supporting Actor. In my view, this increases the chances for both to make the cut as they won’t be competing against each other. Odom was already on my Supporting list last week. Ben-Adir jumps into the Actor final five and that’s to the detriment of Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah. Kaluuya could absolutely still get in, but there’s uncertainty as to whether he will be campaigned for in Actor or Supporting Actor. There’s also no confirmation yet as to when Warner Bros. will release the picture. So for now, he’s on the outside looking in until further information is provided.
The Actress and Supporting Actress contests remain the same without even any ranking alterations. That’s not to indicate those races aren’t fluid. There just wasn’t anything major in the past week to shift my thinking in the past 8 days.
Finally, Disney has delayed the release dates of both Death on the Nile and Free Guy to 2021 TBD. The former was a potential nominee in several tech races such as Costume Design and Production Design. The latter could have been a hopeful in Visual Effects.
And with that, let’s get to the guesstimates!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
5. News of the World (PR: 4)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. The Father (PR: 7)
8. Minari (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
11. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
12. Soul (PR: 12)
13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)
14. The White Tiger (PR: 14)
15. The Midnight Sky (PR: 15)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
8. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 6)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
8. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 8)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actor)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
9. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
10. George Clooney, The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Holland, Cherry
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 6)
7. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Nicole Kidman, The Prom (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 7)
7. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 9)
10. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (moved to Best Actor)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 6)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Forty-Year-Old Version
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 4)
4. Onward (PR: 3)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Connected (PR: 6)
7. Lupin III: The First (PR: 8)
8. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
10. Earwig and the Witch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane Cannary
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 1)
2. Totally Under Control (PR: 3)
3. Crip Camp (PR: 2)
4. The Dissident (PR: 5)
5. Boys State (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Time (PR: 7)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 9)
9. 76 Days (PR: 8)
10. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. New Order (PR: 2)
3. Another Round (PR: 3)
4. The Life Ahead (PR: 4)
5. My Little Sister (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Disciple (PR: 6)
7. Night of the Kings (PR: 5)
8. True Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 10)
10. Atlantis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wife of a Spy
A Sun
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Tenet (PR: 6)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 5)
5. Rebecca (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
8. News of the World (PR: 10)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Death on the Nile
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 4)
7. Tenet (PR: 6)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
3. Mank (PR: 6)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 2)
8. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Mulan (PR: 7)
10. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emma
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Soul (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Tenet (PR: 4)
5. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
7. Minari (PR: 5)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
5. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
8. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: 10)
9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 9)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
3. Mulan (PR: 2)
4. News of the World (PR: 6)
5. Rebecca (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Tenet (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 6)
4. Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 4)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
8. Greyhound (PR: 8)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Invisible Man
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Greyhound (PR: 6)
4. Mulan (PR: 3)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 8)
10. Dolittle (PR: 9)
And this equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers of nods:
12 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
News of the World
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
Nomadland, One Night in Miami
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father
4 Nominations
Tenet
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, Soul
2 Nominations
The Life Ahead, Minari, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Rebecca
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Ammonite, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Coming 2 America, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, My Little Sister, New Order, On the Rocks, Onward, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Sound of Metal, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
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