It has been a decade since a SpongeBob movie was properly located in theaters, but that changes December 19th with The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants. Derek Drymon, a veteran of the Nickelodeon show, handles directorial duties. Voiceover artists from the quarter century plus running series include Tom Kenny, Clancy Brown, and Rodger Bumpass. Some familiar faces behind the mic are George Lopez, Ice Spice, Arturo Castro, Sherry Cola, Regina Hall, and Mark Hamill.
Back in 2004, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Movie opened to $32 million on its way to an $85 million domestic gross. In 2015, sequel Sponge Out of Water improved on those figures with $55 million out of the gate and $162 million overall stateside. In August of 2020, Sponge on the Run didn’t have a proper theatrical output due to the COVID pandemic.
Search is not expected to come close to what the first two franchise entries accomplished. There will be competition for families from the biblical animated tale David as well as Avatar: Fire and Ash. While some forecasts have this achieving mid 20s, I think mid to possibly late teens is a likelier scenario.
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million
For my Avatar: Fire and Ash prediction, click here:
It’s going to be a busy Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend at the box office as two eagerly awaited titles debut: erotic drama Fifty Shades of Grey, based on the massive bestseller and comic book based spy pic Kingsman: The Secret Service. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
The two newbies should populate the top two spots this weekend. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water enjoyed a fabulous debut (more on that below) and should lose around half its audience during its sophomore frame. American Sniper should place fourth while Jupiter Ascending (which suffered a rather dismal beginning) is likely to have a huge fall in its second weekend.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Fifty Shades of Grey
Predicted Gross: $63.1 million
2. Kingsman: The Secret Service
Predicted Gross: $30.6 million
3. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water
Predicted Gross: $25.7 million (representing a drop of 53%)
4. American Sniper
Predicted Gross: $15.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)
5. Jupiter Ascending
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 58%)
Box Office Results (February 6-8)
As previously mentioned, Nickelodeon has a fantastic weekend as sequel The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water had the fifth biggest February opening of all time at $55.3 million or double my meager $27.8M projection. Expect a third Sponge-worthy tale soon without the decade long wait.
American Sniper held up stronger in its fourth wide release weekend with $23.2 million. I predicted $17.7M. The Oscar nominated phenomenon stands at $281 million.
Big budget sci fi actioner Jupiter Ascending stumbled out of the gate with just $18.3 million, just below my $20.9M projection. Bad reviews didn’t help and this marks the third Wachowski directed flop in a row after Speed Racer and Cloud Atlas.
Jupiter wasn’t the only fantasy pic dud of the weekend as Seventh Son took in only $7.2 million, a bit under my $8.9M estimate. The Jeff Bridges starring critical disappointment simply didn’t resonate with its target crowd.
Finally, bear tale Paddington rounded out the top five with $5.2 million – right on target with my $5.3M prediction.
The reign of American Sniper is likely to end this first full weekend of February as three new titles debut: animated sequel The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, sci-fi epic Jupiter Ascending, and fantasy pic Seventh Son. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I believe it will be SpongeBob and not Jupiter that will knock Bradley Cooper’s Oscar nominated war pic from its #1 perch, though it could be close. That would leave Sniper dropping to third with Seventh Son debuting fourth and Paddington rounding out the top five.
And with that, a top five predictions for the weekend:
1. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water
Predicted Gross: $27.8 million
2. Jupiter Ascending
Predicted Gross: $20.9 million
3. American Sniper
Predicted Gross: $17.7 million (representing a drop of 42%)
4. Seventh Son
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
5. Paddington
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)
Box Office Results (January 30-February 1)
Bad weather and the Super Bowl truly did have an effect on the box office this weekend as nearly all titles couldn’t quite match my predictions. As anticipated, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper led the charts for the third week in a row. Yet it dropped much further than my estimate with $30.6 million (I said $42.1M). Regardless it’s made $247M at press time.
With a wholly unimpressive second place debut was Project Almanac, the critically drubbed found footage pic which managed just $8.3 million (far below my $16.4M estimate). With little positive buzz and no recognizable stars, audiences simply chose to ignore it.
Paddington was third with $8.2 million, in line with my $7.7M projection. The bear tale has taken in $50M so far.
The Kevin Costner interracial drama managed an OK start with $6.2 million for fourth, just above my $5.6M prediction.
Jennifer Lopez’s thriller The Boy Next Door dipped from second to fifth with a hefty sophomore drop to $6 million, below my $7.5M projection. The total stands at $24M.
The Wedding Ringer was sixth with $5.6 million (I said $6.7M) and it has made $48M. Oscar nominee The Imitation Game took seventh with $5 million (I predicted $6M) and its impressive total is at $67M.
New thriller The Loft tanked with only $2.7 million – making my $4.8M opening prediction seem way generous. The long delayed pic opened tenth. Same goes for critically acclaimed but Academy ignored A Most Violent Year which made just $1.5 million in its expansion or not even half of my $3.4M projection.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
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