Unless Leonardo DiCaprio’s awards contender The Revenant has a much bigger than anticipated debut, it should be weekend #4 atop the charts for record breaker Star Wars: The Force Awakens on this second 2016 frame. As I see it – Han, Leia and company should garner about another $50M+ to add to its astonishing total.
The Revenant is certainly the heavy hitter newbie this weekend and it should have no trouble posting runner-up status. The weekend’s other fresh offerings are horror pic The Forest and faith based sports drama The Masked Saint. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them all here:
The Forest should manage to place fifth unless some leftovers hold up better than my estimates while The Masked Saint may have to settle for an 11th place showing. Daddy’s Home and The Hateful Eight should populate the three and four spots.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Gross: $51.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)
2. The Revenant
Predicted Gross: $33.2 million
3. Daddy’s Home
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)
4. The Hateful Eight
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 33%)
5. The Forest
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
Box Office Results (January 1-3)
The Force continued to be incredibly strong as Star Wars three-peated with $90.2 million, a bit under my $98.7M projection. The acclaimed seventh episode of the iconic franchise has amassed $742M at press time and looks to become the highest domestic grosser in history on Wednesday – surpassing Avatar‘s $760M.
Daddy’s Home remained in second with $29.2 million, ahead of my $25.9M estimate for a terrific 10 day haul of $93M. The Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg comedy has proven itself to be quite the breakout.
Quentin Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight expanded wide and could not match my lofty expectations. Coming in behind his previous pics Inglourious Basterds and Django Unchained, the three hour pic grossed $15.7 million over the traditional three day weekend and $22.3 million since its wide Wednesday opening. While this is considerably under my $27.2M and $36.1M respective predictions, this is still a decent debut and it hopes to hold up well in subsequent frames.
The Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy Sisters continued its fine run in fourth with $12.7 million (outpacing my $9.2M estimate) for a three week total of $61M. It could manage to reach close to the century mark and maybe even top it.
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip held up solidly in weekend #3 with $12 million for fifth, ahead of my $9.1M projection for a total of $67M.
The David O. Russell/Jennifer Lawrence collaboration Joy was sixth in its second weekend with $10.2 million, in line with my $10.7M estimate. Its just OK two week cume is at $38M.
In seventh was Oscar contender The Big Short, holding nicely at $9 million (above my $7.8M guess) for a tally of $33M. A potential Golden Globe win this coming weekend in the Musical/Comedy race could help continue its sterling performance.
Will Smith’s underwhelming Concussion was eighth with $7.8 million (I was in the ballpark with $8.6M) for ten days earnings of $25M.
Point Break held up stronger than my $5.4M estimate with $6.8 million for a still weak 10 day tally of only $22M.
Rounding out the top ten was The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 at $4.6 million (I said $3.6M) for a $274M overall gross.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
We begin 2016 with my weekly Oscar predictions leading up to nominations being announced on January 14th. This will mean I’ll have two more posts prognosticating on what and who will be nominated (one on Friday the 8th and one likely the day before the announcements).
A couple of quick notes on various races:
There is considerable speculation as to whether Rooney Mara will be nominated in the category of Best Actress or Supporting Actress for her work in Carol. So far, I’ve speculated a nomination for her in the latter. Today, I am changing it to the former.
Same goes for Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl, but I’m keeping her in Supporting Actress for now. There is also speculation that her nod could come for Ex Machina and not Danish Girl.
The historic box office performance of Star Wars: The Force Awakens is increasing its shot at a Best Picture nomination. I’ve still got it on the outside looking in, but don’t be shocked if that changes in the coming days.
And with that, here’s my weekly predictions that list all possibilities for each race and how they’ve fluctuated since Christmas Day:
Best Picture
Spotlight (No Change)
Room (No Change)
The Big Short (+2)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+2)
Carol (-2)
The Martian (+1)
The Revenant (-3)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+8)
11. Inside Out (-2)
12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
13. Straight Outta Compton (-2)
14. Beasts of No Nation (-1)
15. Son of Saul (+2)
16. Steve Jobs (No Change)
17. Creed (-2)
18. Sicario (+1)
19. Trumbo (-5)
20. The Danish Girl (No Change)
21. Anomalisa (Previously Unranked)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Director
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (+1)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (-1)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+1)
7. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
8. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
9. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (No Change)
10. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (+3)
11. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+4)
12. John Crowley, Brooklyn (-2)
13. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation (-2)
14. Ryan Coogler, Creed (-2)
DROPPED OUT: F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (No Change)
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Matt Damon, The Martian (+1)
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (No Change)
7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)
8. Steve Carell, The Big Short (No Change)
9. Michael Caine, Youth (+1)
10. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (-1)
11. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (No Change)
12. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
13. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Actress
Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
Rooney Mara, Carol (Previously Unranked In This Category)
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (-1)
7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You In My Dreams (-1)
9. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (No Change)
DROPPED OUT: Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Mara. Out: Rampling.
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Sylvester Stallone, Creed (No Change)
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (No Change)
Christian Bale, The Big Short (No Change)
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (-1)
7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (+1)
8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (+1)
9. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (-2)
10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)
11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-1)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Shannon. Out: Keaton.
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (+3)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (+1)
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (-2)
Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+1)
Joan Allen, Room (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+1)
7. Jane Fonda, Youth (-1)
8. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)
9. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (-1)
10. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Allen. Out: Rooney Mara (moved to Best Actress)
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight (No Change)
Inside Out (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Ex Machina (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)
7. Love and Mercy (+2)
8. 99 Homes (-1)
9. Son of Saul (-1)
10. Sicario (No Change)
11. Joy (Previously Unranked)
DROPPED OUT: Youth
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short (+1)
Room (+1)
Carol (-2)
Steve Jobs (No Change)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. The Revenant (+2)
8. Beasts of No Nation (-1)
9. Anomalisa (+1)
10. Trumbo (-2)
11. Creed (+2)
12. The Danish Girl (No Change)
13. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out (No Change)
Anomalisa (No Change)
Shaun the Sheep Movie (+1)
The Peanuts Movie (+1)
Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Good Dinosaur (No Change)
7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)
8. Minions (Previously Unranked)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Cinematography
The Revenant (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (+1)
Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
Sicario (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. Son of Saul (-2)
8. Carol (-1)
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Previously Unranked)
DROPPED OUT: In the Heart of the Sea
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Bridge of Spies. Out: Son of Saul.
Best Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
The Revenant (+2)
Spotlight (-2)
The Martian (+2)
Steve Jobs (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario (Previously Unranked)
7. The Big Short (-4)
8. Bridge of Spies (-1)
9. The Hateful Eight (-1)
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
11. Carol (Previously Unranked)
12. Room (-3)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Martian. Out: The Big Short.
Best Production Design
Carol (No Change)
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
The Hateful Eight (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cinderella (No Change)
7. Brooklyn (-3)
8. The Revenant (+1)
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
10. Far from the Madding Crowd (Previously Unranked)
11. MacBeth (-1)
DROPPED OUT: The Martian
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Hateful Eight. Out: Brooklyn.
Best Costume Design
Carol (+1)
The Danish Girl (-1)
Cinderella (No Change)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Far from the Madding Crowd (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (+1)
7. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
8. MacBeth (+1)
9. The Revenant (+1)
10. Suffragette (-4)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Previously Unranked)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Far from the Madding Crowd. Out: Mad Max: Fury Road.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (+4)
Black Mass (+1)
Other Possibilities:
4. Concussion (Previously Unranked)
5. Mr. Holmes (+2)
6. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (Previously Unranked)
7. Legend (Previously Unranked)
DROPPED OUT: The Danish Girl, Carol, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (these top seven finalists indicated above have now been announced)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Revenant, Black Mass. OUT: The Danish Girl, Carol
Best Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
The Martian (No Change)
Sicario (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (-1)
7. In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)
8. Jurassic World (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Sicario. Out: The Hateful Eight.
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+1)
The Martian (-1)
In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario (No Change)
7. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
8. Jurassic World (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes.
Best Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Jurassic World (No Change)
Ex Machina (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. In the Heart of the Sea (-1)
7. The Walk (-1)
8. Everest (Previously Unranked)
9. The Revenant (-2)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Ex Machina. Out: In the Heart of the Sea.
Best Original Score
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Carol (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spotlight (No Change)
7. Steve Jobs (+1)
8. Inside Out (+1)
9. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
10. The Revenant (Previously Unranked)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Original Song
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (No Change)
“See You Again” from Furious 7 (+1)
“So Long” from Concussion (-1)
“Simple Song #3” from Youth (+1)
“Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (+1)
7. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
DROPPED OUT: “I’ll See You In My Dreams” from I’ll See You in My Dreams
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
And there you have it – my latest Oscar predictions and first post of 2016!
One year after winning the Directing Oscar for Best Picture winner Birdman, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu unleases The Revenant in theaters next Friday and the box office results could be quite impressive. Leonardo DiCaprio stars in the 19th century brutal tale of survival (complete with well publicized bear attacks) and the buzz has the actor in line to finally receive his elusive Academy Award. Costars include Tom Hardy, Domhnall Gleeson, and Will Poulter.
The Revenant looks like a good possibility for its own Picture nomination and reviews have mostly been solid, as it stands at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes. The film has garnered much notice for its reported hellish production shoot. It will need to earn serious money domestically and overseas with a budget of around $135 million.
The marketing campaign for The Revenant has been strong and Leo is one of the few performers who legitimately brings out audiences due to his sterling track record. I suspect this will post an opening gross anywhere from the high 20s to high 30s and if it over performed, it wouldn’t be a huge shock to me.
The Revenant opening weekend prediction: $33.2 million
We arrive at my weekly Oscar predictions and a new wrinkle has been added. I’m predicting every category with the exception of Foreign and Documentary (those will eventually be added).
As with last week, I’ll ranking according to my feelings on likelihood of the films and performers being nominated and let you know what’s changed since last week. The pluses and minuses and no changes indicated their ranking from last week to this week.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Spotlight (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
Room (No Change)
Brooklyn (+3)
Carol (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
The Big Short (+2)
Other Possibilities:
10. Inside Out (No Change)
11. The Hateful Eight (-2)
12. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+11)
13. Trumbo (+6)
14. Son of Saul (+3)
15. The Danish Girl (+1)
16. Sicario (+5)
17. Beasts of No Nation (-3)
18. Steve Jobs (-5)
19. Straight Outta Compton (-4)
20. Creed (-8)
21. Joy (-2)
22. Love and Mercy (-1)
23. Anomalisa (-6)
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: The Big Short. OUT: The Hateful Eight.
Best Director
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (No Change)
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (No Change)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)
7. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
8. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+9)
9. John Crowley, Brooklyn (No Change)
10. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-2)
11. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+1)
12. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (+1)
13. Jay Roach, Trumbo (Previously Not Ranked)
14. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (+2)
15. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (-1)
16. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation (-5)
17. Ryan Coogler, Creed (-7)
DROPPED OUT: David O. Russell, Joy
What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (+1)
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (-1)
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (+1)
Johnny Depp, Black Mass (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Martian (No Change)
7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)
8. Michael Caine, Youth (+3)
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (No Change)
10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
11. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (+2)
12. Steve Carell, The Big Short (No Change)
13. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (-5)
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Actress
Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (No Change)
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
7. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+2)
8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (-2)
9. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)
10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (No Change)
11. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette (+1)
12. Lily Tomlin, Grandma (-1)
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Michael Keaton, Spotlight (+1)
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+1)
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (+1)
Sylvester Stallone, Creed (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (+4)
7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (-1)
8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (No Change)
9. Christian Bale, The Big Short (-2)
10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)
11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-2)
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Supporting Actress
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (No Change)
Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+4)
7. Jane Fonda, Youth (-2)
8. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (-2)
9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)
10. Joan Allen, Room (-2)
DROPPED OUT: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Helen Mirren, OUT: Jane Fonda.
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight (No Change)
Inside Out (+1)
The Hateful Eight (-1)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Love and Mercy (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Son of Saul (-1)
7. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Not Ranked)
8. 99 Homes (No Change)
9. Sicario (+1)
10. Ex Machina (+1)
11. Straight Outta Compton (-4)
12. Youth (Previously Not Ranked)
13. Joy (-4)
14. Trainwreck (-2)
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Love and Mercy. OUT: Son of Saul.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Room (+2)
Brooklyn (+2)
Carol (-2)
The Big Short (+1)
Steve Jobs (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (+1)
7. Trumbo (+3)
8. The Revenant (-2)
9. Beasts of No Nation (No Change)
10. Anomalisa (-2)
11. The Danish Girl (+1)
DROPPED OUT: Creed
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Animated Feature (First Time Predictions)
Inside Out
Anomalisa
Kahlil Gobran’s The Prophet
Shaun the Sheep Movie
The Good Dinosaur
Other Possibilities:
6. The Peanuts Movie
7. When Marnie Was There
8. Home
Best Cinematography (First Time Predictions)
The Hateful Eight
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Sicario
Other Possibilities:
6. Carol
7. Bridge of Spies
8. The Danish Girl
Best Production Design (First Time Predictions)
Carol
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
Cinderella
Bridge of Spies
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. Brooklyn
8. The Martian
9. The Hateful Eight
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
11. MacBeth
Best Editing (First Time Predictions)
Spotlight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Big Short
Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight
7. The Martian
8. Bridge of Spies
9. Room
Best Costume Design (First Time Predictions)
Carol
Cinderella
Brooklyn
The Danish Girl
Far from the Madding Crowd
Other Possibilities:
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. Suffragette
8. Trumbo
9. The Hateful Eight
10. MacBeth
Best Makeup and Hairstyling (First Time Predictions)
The Danish Girl
Carol
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Other Possibilities:
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Black Mass
6. Pan
7. The Hateful Eight
8. The Revenant
Best Visual Effects (First Time Predictions)
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Jurassic World
The Walk
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. In the Heart of the Sea
8. Ex Machina
Best Sound Mixing (First Time Predictions)
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Revenant
Sicario
Other Possibilities:
6. Jurassic World
7. The Hateful Eight
8. In the Heart of the Sea
Best Sound Editing (First Time Predictions)
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
In the Heart of the Sea
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario
7. The Hateful Eight
8. Jurassic World
Best Original Score (First Time Predictions)
The Hateful Eight
Carol
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Sicario
9. Brooklyn
10. Mad Max: Fury Road
11. Southpaw
Best Original Song (First Time Predictions)
“Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground
“See You Again” from Furious 7
“Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey
“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre
“Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey
Other Possibilities:
6. “Simple Song #3” from Youth
7. “One Kind of Love” from Love and Mercy
8. “So Long” from Concussion
Whew! Those predictions reflect a current belief of the following films garnering nominations with number included:
9 Nominations
Carol
8 Nominations
Mad Max: Fury Road
7 Nominations
The Revenant
6 Nominations
The Danish Girl, The Martian, Spotlight
5 Nominations
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4 Nominations
Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Hateful Eight, Steve Jobs
3 Nominations
The Big Short, Room
2 Nominations
Cinderella, Fifty Shades of Grey, Inside Out, Love and Mercy, Sicario, Trumbo
1 Nomination
Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunting Ground, In the Heat of the Sea, Joy, Jurassic World, Kahlil Gabron’s The Prophet, Shaun the Sheep Movie, Spectre, The Walk
For close to a decade, Tom Hardy has been turning up in mostly high profile supporting roles and became a household name thanks to one Christopher Nolan. His breakout came in Nicolas Winding Refn’s acclaimed indie pic Bronson. The aforementioned Nolan took notice and soon Hardy found himself cast alongside Leonardo DiCaprio in Inception and as villain Bane in The Dark Knight Rises. Other notable appearances along the way include Warrior, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Lawless, Locke, and The Drop.
It’s been an impressive filmography but 2015 put the 38 year old Brit into a whole new stratosphere. This summer he took over the role made famous by Mel Gibson in Mad Max: Fury Road and the results were a worldwide box office smash that is gaining momentum for a Best Picture nomination.
This fall, he starred in Legend which cast him in the dual role of real life gangsters The Kray Brothers. Reviews were mixed, but Hardy earned raves for his work.
The calendar year will end with him paired up with DiCaprio once again in the eagerly anticipated The Revenant, which is also subject to plenty of Oscar buzz. In fact, it looks more probable than not that two Academy nominees for Best Picture will feature Mr. Hardy. He also could find himself in line for his own first Oscar recognition in Supporting Actor for The Revenant.
With three buzzworthy features to his credit in 2015, it was a furiously good year for this actor.
And now we’ve arrived at my weekly Oscar predictions for the eight biggest categories and yes, things have changed in one week. Most notably, many critics precursor awards have been announced and just in the last 48 hours, nominations for the SAG and Golden Globe awards have been revealed. The past week’s activity has given a huge boost to Mad Max: Fury Road‘s inclusion into the Best Picture race and I’m including it for the first time. Other pics that have received some momentum: Carol, Trumbo (in acting races), and possibly The Big Short.
For the first time, I’m ceasing to list my predicted nominees and other possibilities alphabetically. We are now switching to where I’m listing according to my thoughts on their probability of being nominated.
And here we go, my friends:
Best Picture
Spotlight
The Revenant
Room
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Brooklyn
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Other Possibilities:
10. Inside Out
11. The Big Short
12. Creed
13. Steve Jobs
14. Beasts of No Nation
15. Straight Outta Compton
16. The Danish Girl
17. Son of Saul
18. Anomalisa
19. Trumbo
20. Joy
21. Sicario
22. Love and Mercy
23. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Mad Max: Fury Road, Out: Inside Out
Best Director
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Todd Haynes, Carol
Other Possibilities:
6. Lenny Abrahamson, Room
7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
8. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
9. John Crowley, Brooklyn
10. Ryan Coogler, Creed
11. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation
12. Adam McKay, The Big Short
13. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul
14. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
15. David O. Russell, Joy
16. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
17. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Todd Haynes. Out: Lenny Abrahamson
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Martian
7. Will Smith, Concussion
8. Michael B. Jordan, Creed
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
11. Michael Caine, Youth
12. Steve Carell, The Big Short
13. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Bryan Cranston. Out: Matt Damon
Best Actress
Brie Larson, Room
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Other Possibilities:
6. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams
7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
8. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back
9. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold
10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
11. Lily Tomlin, Grandma
12. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
What’s Changed Since Last Week – NO CHANGES
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
7. Christian Bale, The Big Short
8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
9. Benicio del Toro, Sicario
10. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
11. Jacob Tremblay, Room
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Paul Dano and Idris Elba. Out: Tom Hardy and Mark Ruffalo
Best Supporting Actress
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Rooney Mara, Carol
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Jane Fonda, Youth
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
7. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
8. Joan Allen, Room
9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy
10. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
11. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Bridge of Spies
Son of Saul
Other Possibilities:
6. Love and Mercy
7. Straight Outta Compton
8. 99 Homes
9. Joy
10. Sicario
11. Ex Machina
12. Trainwreck
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Son of Saul. Out: Love and Mercy
Best Adapted Screenplay
Carol
Steve Jobs
Room
Brooklyn
The Big Short
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. The Martian
8. Anomalisa
9. Beasts of No Nation
10. Trumbo
11. Creed
12. The Danish Girl
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: The Big Short. Out: Anomalisa.
And that’ll do it for this week’s predictions! Stay tuned for next Friday’s picks…
As critics organizations have started handing out their year end best of honors starting last week, two stories have stood in the forefront: the love fest enveloping Mad Max: Fury Road and the lack of attention to what many consider to be Oscar’s soft front runner. That would be Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight, the true life story of Boston Globe reporters exposing the Catholic Church priest sex abuse scandal. In fact, when Boston’s online critics organization bestowed their awards over the weekend, many assumed they would select Spotlight due to the geographic factor alone. They went with Max.
Today, however, two organizations from both coasts feted Spotlight with some love. It also finally got some hometown attention as the Boston Society of Film Critics named it their Best Picture. Just a few hours later, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association followed suit, making it a very good day for Spotlight.
Director McCarthy, on the other hand, was not picked by either coast in the Director race. Boston went with Todd Haynes for Carol and Los Angeles picked George Miller for Mad Max with Haynes as their runner up.
Truth be told, Spotlight winning the L.A. award may not be the greatest harbinger. In the 21st century, only one feature that won its top category went onto win the Oscar: 2009’s The Hurt Locker. The Los Angeles group is also known for making some out of left field choices in the acting races and they did with their supporting choices. Michael Shannon took Supporting Actor for the little seen 99 Homes and he’s not considered much of a threat in the Academy hunt. Runner up: Mark Rylance, whose chances are considerably better for Bridge of Spies. For Supporting Actress, they went with Alicia Vikander and she is widely expected to be nominated come Oscar time. Yet L.A. honored her for Ex Machina and not the film everyone expects her nomination for, The Danish Girl. Runner up: Kristen Stewart for Clouds of Sils Maria and Ms. Stewart won in Boston today. Her previously thought to be improbable Oscar nod keeps growing more probable everyday.
For Best Actress, it was a nice day for Charlotte Rampling, who won on both coasts. Her performance in little seen drama 45 Years has also been gaining attention and that could well translate into an Academy notice. L.A.’s runner up was Brooklyn’s Saoirse Ronan and her Oscar chances are excellent.
Los Angeles may have provided a lifeline to Michael Fassbender who took Actor for Steve Jobs. That film’s Oscar chances have taken a hit due to its dismal box office performance and some have begun speculating whether that factor could affect even Fassbender getting noticed. These critics awards help. The runner up was Geza Rohrig for foreign feature Son of Saul. In Boston, there was a tie between Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant and Paul Dano in Love and Mercy. DiCaprio is seen by many as the current Academy front runner while Dano is being campaigned for in Supporting Actor at the Oscars (where his inclusion is definitely a question mark).
As always, I’ll keep updating you on these precursors as they continue. Today’s bottom line: a true spotlight on Spotlight.
Another day, another critics organization bestowing their best of in movies for 2015. And like the National Board of Review before it, the Boston Online Film Critics have honored Mad Max: Fury Road as their favorite of the year. Its director, George Miller, was victorious as well. This marks yet another win for the fourth entry in the action franchise and increases momentum for the Academy honoring it for a nod in January. I have yet to include Fury Road among my predicted nominees, but that could change soon.
Perhaps the most surprising thing about Max’s win in Boston was that they didn’t pick Spotlight, the Catholic Church priest scandal expose that centers on Boston Globe reporters. Spotlight was included among their other nine selections of the year’s best along with Creed, Brooklyn, Carol, Clouds of Sils Maria, Bridge of Spies, The Martian, Anomalisa, and Tangerine. Notable pics left off: The Revenant, The Hateful Eight, and Joy.
Boston’s selections also marked a great day for Creed. Michael B. Jordan took Best Actor and Sylvester Stallone got Supporting Actor. While Jordan’s chances at an Oscar nod are up in the air (though he’s got some momentum), Stallone is looking more and more like a lock for inclusion.
The actress categories mirrored what the New York critics did earlier this week. Saoirse Ronan won for lead in Brooklyn and she seems a safe bet for Academy attention. Kristen Stewart picked up her second award for the little seen Clouds of Sils Maria and while I’ve yet to list her as an Oscar nominee, she seems to be coming on strong over the past week.
As always, I’ll keep updating the blog as these awards precursors keep coming. Stay tuned!
We are a bit over a month away from Oscar nominations coming out (January 14th) and it’s time to ramp up my predictions for what and whom will be nominated in the eight top races. I’m adding the two Screenplay categories (Original and Adapted) for the first time and the plan is to make weekly Oscar predictions each weekend until nominations come out. With each race, I’ll inform you what’s changed since the previous predictions post.
And with that, let’s get to predicting, shall we?
Best Picture
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Other Possibilities:
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Creed
The Danish Girl
Joy
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Steve Jobs
Straight Outta Compton
Changes Since Last Predictions: Bridge of Spies, Inside Out (IN), Joy, Steve Jobs (OUT)
Best Director
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Other Possibilities:
Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
Ryan Coogler, Creed
John Crowley, Brooklyn
Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation
Todd Haynes, Carol
Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
David O. Russell, Joy
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Changes Since Last Predictions: George Miller (IN), David O. Russell (OUT)
Best Actor
Matt Damon, The Martian
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
Michael Caine, Youth
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
Will Smith, Concussion
Changes Since Last Predictions: NONE
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Other Possibilities:
Emily Blunt, Sicario
Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Changes Since Last Predictions: Charlotte Rampling (IN), Blythe Danner (OUT)
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Other Possibilities:
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Benicio del Toro, Sicario
Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Harvey Keitel, Youth
Jacob Tremblay, Room
Changes Since Last Predictions: Tom Hardy (IN), Idris Elba (OUT)
Best Supporting Actress
Jane Fonda, Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
Joan Allen, Room
Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Kristin Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Julie Walters, Brooklyn
Changes Since Last Predictions: Jane Fonda (IN), Joan Allen (OUT)
Best Original Screenplay (first prediction in category)
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Love and Mercy
Spotlight
Other Possibilities:
Joy
Sicario
Straight Outta Compton
Youth
Best Adapted Screenplay (first prediction in category)
Anomalisa
Brooklyn
Carol
Room
Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
The Big Short
Creed
The Martian
The Revenant
And there you have it – folks! The next update will come next weekend…
A summertime thrill ride that has served as a resurgence for a thirty year old action franchise got a big Oscar boost today when Mad Max: Fury Road won the National Board of Review (NBR) award for Best Picture. This was an upset. While George Miller’s return to kinetic and wild adventure set pieces earned universal critical acclaim, it’s not really been looked at as a given for a Picture nod at the Academy Awards. The NBR attention does nothing but help.
Over this century, the NBR’s Picture winner has been nominated for the big race at the Oscars 14 out of 16 times (the exceptions were 2000’s Quills and last year’s A Most Violent Year). On the other hand, only two of the past 16 NBR honorees have won the Academy’s honor (2007’s No Country for Old Men and 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire).
I would still say that Fury Road is no shoo in for a nomination, but its chances no doubt increased with the announcement this afternoon. I also believe a scenario (and maybe a stronger one) exists where Miller gets a directing nomination with the film being left off of the Best Picture group come announcement time.
The NBR also names an additional nine favorite movies of the year. They were: Bridge of Spies, Creed, The Hateful Eight, Inside Out, The Martian, Room, Sicario, Spotlight, and Straight Outta Compton. Of these films, Sicario and Compton are seen as least likely to receive Oscar attention. Both are still possible and Creed‘s stock keeps rising.
High profile Oscar contenders left off? The Revenant, Steve Jobs, Joy, Anomalisa, Brooklyn, and Carol. However, the NBR list and the Academy list never match and expect some of these titles to be included in the big race.
Besides Max, the other pic to get a huge NBR boost is The Martian, where Ridley Scott won Best Director and Matt Damon won Best Actor. Again, neither are shoo ins for Oscar nods but their inclusion is seeming more and more probable.
As for the other acting categories, Brie Larson’s work in Room marked her first win in what could be several and her Oscar nod seems assured. Sylvester Stallone was victorious in Supporting Actor for Creed and it would now be a surprise if Oscar doesn’t call his name among the five nominees. The same is likely for Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight, who won Supporting Actress.
This day really marked the official beginning of the awards season and there’ll be much more to chew on (other critics group, Golden Globes, SAG Awards) before the Academy reveals their choices. And this blog will be following and keeping you up to date all the way. Stay tuned!
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