Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s behind the camera work for Drive My Car is the fourth Case Of post for the five director nominees. If you missed the others, you can find them here:
The 43-year-old filmmaker has been acclaimed in his native Japan for years. Car, his three hour epic, is his stateside breakthrough and it performed better than expected on nominations morning with four nods in Picture, Adapted Screenplay, International Feature Film, and here. Voters may want to honor it somewhere…
The Case Against Ryusuke Hamaguchi:
And that category is almost certain to be International Feature Film where it’s the surefire favorite. It’s a long shot in the other three races with Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) in the driver’s seat for this one. Hamaguchi also failed to place for the Golden Globes or Critics Choice Awards.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
He’ll be onstage in the foreign competition, but not for Best Director.
My Case Of posts will continue with the Best Actress hopefuls and Nicole Kidman in Being the Ricardos…
My Case Of posts arrive at the third Supporting Actor contender and it’s Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog. The first two write-ups can be found here:
Having appeared in acclaimed TV and cinematic works including Breaking Bad and Fargo on the small screen and The Master, The Irishman, and Judas and the Black Messiah on the big one, Plemons scores his first Academy nod. Dog led all nominees with 13 and that includes Kirsten Dunst (the actor’s real life love interest).
The Case Against Jesse Plemons:
It also includes his costar Kodi Smit-McPhee, who’s nominated in the same category and won the Golden Globe. Despite a BAFTA mention, Plemons didn’t make the SAG, Globe, or Critics Choice shortlists. Smit-McPhee and Troy Kotsur (CODA) are looked at as the potential victors. Woody Harrelson in 2017 lost to his costar Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri as did Lakeith Stranfield last year to Daniel Kaluuya for the aforementioned Judas. Plemons could play that role this time around.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
Plemons might be back again next year with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. Don’t look for an Oscar delivery here.
My Case Of posts will continue with Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s direction of Drive My Car…
Andrew Garfield’s acclaimed performance as Rent playwright Jonathan Larson in Tick, Tick… Boom! is next up in my Case Of posts for this year’s Best Actor contenders. If you missed the first two, you can peruse them here:
Garfield received some career best notices for Lin-Manuel Miranda’s Netflix musical drama. It also helps that the actor had a banner 2021. In addition to Boom!, critics lauded his work as Jim Bakker alongside Oscar nominated Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye and he reprised his web slinger role in the box office behemoth Spider-Man: No Way Home. At the Golden Globes, he took the gold for Best Actor in Musical/Comedy.
The Case Against Andrew Garfield:
The Globes divide their lead races into Drama and Musical/Comedy. Will Smith received the Drama trophy for King Richard and he also just won the SAG Award. In other words, Garfield is definitely behind Smith and likely third in line after Benedict Cumberbatch for The Power of the Dog.
Previous Nominations: 1
Hacksaw Ridge (2016 – Actor)
The Verdict:
Mr. Garfield probably has a better shot in 2021 than he did five years ago for Hacksaw Ridge, but he’s still in the middle of the pack and has yet to have a signature victory that proves he’s a threat to the frontrunners.
My Case Of posts will continue with the Supporting Actress hopefuls and Judi Dench in Belfast…
The eyes of Oscar prognosticators were focused on this evening’s SAG Awards and it provided some further suspense as we figure out who will be taking the Academy’s gold.
Let’s get the particulars out of the way as I went 3 for 5 (just like last year). One burning question was whether Best Actress would continue to be a free for all of unpredictability. And it did as Jessica Chastain took SAG for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. She was runner-up over my pick of Globe winner Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos). This puts Chastain in a better position to take the Oscar, but the race is far from decided.
As for Actor and Supporting Actress – SAG followed the Globes lead with Will Smith (King Richard) and Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) respectively. It solidifies their status as Academy frontrunners and matches my projections. I wouldn’t bet against either come Oscar time, but let’s see if the forthcoming BAFTAs can change the narrative.
I also called Troy Kotsur (CODA) for Supporting Actor yet that Academy competition is hardly over as Globes recipient Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) should make it interesting.
CODA turned out to be the big winner of the night as it also took Best Ensemble. Not bad for a Sundance darling that Apple TV purchased the streaming rights for. It was my runner-up pick to Belfast, which could have used a trophy this evening for momentum.
While CODA‘s impressive showing could lead to dark horse predictions for it to nab Best Picture in a month, I wouldn’t go too far down the rabbit hole as The Power of the Dog still looks to be the odds on favorite.
And there you have it, folks! My Oscar speculation will keep rolling for the next four weeks!
The third entry in my Case Of posts for the Best Director nominees belongs to Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog. If you missed the first two, you can find them here:
After a 12 year absence from filmmaking, New Zealand’s Campion made an acclaimed return with the Netflix drama. It led all movies in terms of nods with an even better than anticipated 13. Already the winner of the Golden Globe, Campion has been the frontrunner ever since Dog‘s release. She would become just the third female to take this race after Kathryn Bigelow with 2009’s The Hurt Locker and Chloe Zhao for last year’s Nomadland.
The Case Against Jane Campion:
If Dog is simply all nominations and very few wins (similar to The Irishman from two years ago), we could see plenty of upsets and that would include Campion losing here.
Previous Nominations: 1 (for directing only)
The Piano (1993)
The Verdict:
In 1993, Campion was probably runner-up in this category to Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List. Even though Spielberg is up against her again with West Side Story, Campion comes into this ceremony as the sturdy favorite. Even if Power doesn’t take Best Picture, I’d still likely be forecasting Campion in this competition and in Adapted Screenplay. That would add Oscars two and three to her mantle after an Original Screenplay victory for The Piano.
My Case Of posts will continue with the third Best Actress hopeful – Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers…
Troy Kotsur’s performance as the randy dad in CODA is my second Case Of post for the Supporting Actor nominees. If you missed the first on Ciaran Hinds in Belfast, it’s here:
The deaf actor was the comedic and emotional highlight of CODA, which maintained its positive buzz from Sundance through Oscar nomination morning. Precursors have been kind as he’s nabbed nods from SAG, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice. It’s almost impossible to see CODA and not root for him.
The Case Against Troy Kotsur:
CODA tied Licorice Pizza for the least amount of nominations of the Best Picture contenders at 3 (costars Emilia Jones and Marlee Matlin didn’t make the cut). It’s up for Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and here. There’s a very good chance it loses all of them to The Power of the Dog. In Kotsur’s case, it would be to Kodi Smit-McPhee (who took the Globe).
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
If Kotsur can win SAG tomorrow, this could be a real showdown between him and Smit-McPhee. If not, it probably means the latter is sweeping the season.
My Case Of posts will continue with Jane Campion’s direction of The Power of the Dog…
Ariana DeBose’s performance in West Side Story is next up with my Case Of posts for Supporting Actress. If you missed the first covering Jessie Buckley in The Lost Daughter, you can find it here:
Her performance as Anita has been consistently called the highlight among the cast. There’s Oscar history to be had as Rita Moreno won the same award 60 years ago in the same role. Even before its release, DeBose was correctly looked at as a strong contender and she’s already got a Golden Globe to show for it (in addition to SAG and Critics Choice nods and plenty of trophies from critics groups).
The Case Against Ariana DeBose:
The film itself was a box office disappointment and perhaps the Academy will honor a more seasoned competitor like Kirsten Dunst in The Power of the Dog (especially if that pic begins to run the table at the ceremony).
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
DeBose is unquestionably the frontrunner here and I’d say this is the easiest of the four acting derbies to forecast. That said, there’s been upsets in this race before.
My Case Of posts will continue with the supporting work of Troy Kotsur in CODA…
The SAG Awards air this Sunday night and I’m here to give you my take. For some context, I went 4/5 in my projections from 2017-2019 and 3/5 last year. The winners here will certainly help themselves if they’re nominated for Oscars (as you’ll see – not all are).
Let’s get to it!
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
House of Gucci
King Richard
Commentary:
I could offer an argument for anything but Gucci (partly because The Birdcage from 1996 is the only winner that wasn’t nominated for BP at the Oscars). The rest of the pics are BP players with the Academy. Belfast is the most likely to win (notice frontrunner The Power of the Dog isn’t here). Even though I’m not projecting its lone nominee (Balfe) to take the SAG and it was a surprise that Ciaran Hinds didn’t make it, I’ll say the cast is ultimately honored as a whole. CODA is right on its heels.
Predicted Winner: Belfast
Runner-Up: CODA
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Commentary:
Welcome to the confounding world of Best Actress in the 2021 awards season and this is easily the trickiest race to figure out. The Oscar/SAG match is 3/5. Gaga and Hudson didn’t make the Acadeny’s cut in favor of Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Kristen Stewart (Spencer).
Let’s start with Gaga. The SAG winner in this race has never not been nominated for an Oscar so the superstar would certainly make history if she takes this. That stat discourages me from calling her name, but who knows? All hopefuls here would be first-time winners in this category (Hudson took Supporting Actress 15 years back in Dreamgirls). She seems least likely to win. So we’re down to Chastain, Colman, and Kidman. All could prevail. Kidman took the Golden Globe and a podium trip could solidify her status as the Oscar frontrunner. Chastain’s showy role could be honored and it’s a bit of a coin flip for me. I’ll give Kidman an ever so slight edge.
Predicted Winner: Nicole Kidman
Runner-Up: Jessica Chastain
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Commentary:
Not complicated like Actress as there’s a 5 for 5 lineup with the Academy’s nominees. Unlike the Oscars, I do buy into the theory that Garfield might be more of a spoiler than Cumberbatch to Smith. The SAG folks could reward Garfield’s showy role. That said, I’m not betting against Smith.
Predicted Winner: Will Smith
Runner-Up: Andrew Garfield
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Ruth Negga, Passing
Commentary:
There’s only a 2 for 5 symmetry with the big show and that’s DeBose and Dunst. Balfe, Blanchett, and Negga are in over Academy picks Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Judi Dench (Belfast), and Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard). I do think it’s between the Oscar contestants. Dunst is a threat though I’m going with DeBose sweeping until I see different.
Predicted Winner: Ariana DeBose
Runner-Up: Kirsten Dunst
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Commentary:
Like Supporting Actress, just a 2 for 5 (Kotsur, Smit-McPhee) match. Affleck, Cooper, and Leto got SAG love instead of Oscar selections Ciaran Hinds (Belfast), Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), and J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos). And I’ll also say it’s between the two Academy players. This is difficult because I could easily see Smit-McPhee sweeping (he won the Globe). Yet I have a sneaking suspicion the thespians may go for Kotsur. With little confidence, I’ll pick that.
Predicted Winner: Troy Kotsur
Runner-Up: Kodi Smit-McPhee
I’ll have reaction up on the ceremony Sunday night!
Benedict Cumberbatch is the second Best Actor hopeful covered in my Case Of posts for that category. If you missed the first on Javier Bardem for Being the Ricardos, it’s here:
We might be witnessing a right year and right movie matchup for Cumberbatch to nab his first Oscar. After being previously nominated seven years back for The Imitation Game, he’s starring in the Best Picture frontrunner and garnered career best reviews. He’s been mentioned in all key precursors such as the Globes, SAG, BAFTA and Critics Choice. Furthermore, he had an impressive 2021 beyond Dog with kudos for the title role in The Electrical Life of Louis Wain and appearing as Doctor Strange in box office behemoth Spider-Man: No Way Home.
The Case Against Benedict Cumberbatch:
Only 3 Best Actor recipients in the 21st century came from the BP winner. Yet the most compelling case against comes courtesy of Will Smith, who stands as the favorite for King Richard. This is Smith’s third try and Benedict’s second. Voters may figure Cumberbatch will have other opportunities. The Academy has three other options to bestow gold on the Dog cast (with the best possibility being Kodi Smit-McPhee in supporting actor).
Previous Nominations: 1
The Imitation Game (2014 – Actor)
The Verdict:
I do believe Cumberbatch is a strong second to Smith at the moment. If Cumberbatch manages to grab the SAG or BAFTA, he could play the spoiler role that Anthony Hopkins (The Father) managed last year over the favored Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
My Case Of posts will continue with Supporting Actress and Ariana DeBose in West Side Story…
Kenneth Branagh’s passion project Belfast is next up in my Case Of posts for Best Director. If you missed the first covering Paul Thomas Anderson with Licorice Pizza, it’s here:
The veteran actor/director originally caught the attention of the Academy in 1989 with Henry V and he was nominated for Director and Actor (winning neither). He’s actually been nominated in seven separate races – the other being Picture with this, Adapted Screenplay with Hamlet, Live-Action Short Film for Swan Song, Supporting Actor (My Week with Marilyn), and Original Screenplay here. Despite that impressive feat, he’s 0 for 5 going into the ceremony and voters may feel he’s overdue.
The Case Against Kenneth Branagh:
That overdue feeling should materialize in Original Screenplay and not in this race where Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) is out front. In the former competition, Branagh appears to be neck-and-neck with none other than Paul Thomas Anderson, who could pick up his first hardware after several previous nods.
Previous Nominations: 1 (for directing only)
Henry V (1989)
The Verdict:
It’s a near certainty that Mr. Branagh or Mr. Anderson are headed for their inaugural statue. However, expect that to happen with their writing and not their direction.
My Case Of posts will continue with the second Best Actress write-up: Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter…
