It was a frenzied Sunday for awards prognosticators as both the BAFTA and Critics Choice Awards aired. Both can be sturdy forecasters for what Oscar will do. This time around, I did better with the Brits than the stateside reviewers. For BAFTA, I went 15/22 (not bad). As for the Critics… oof. Just 10 for 21. Let’s take a look at both with some commentary below:
BAFTA
What I Got Right:
Film – The Power of the Dog
Director – Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Actress – Joanna Scanlan, After Love
Supporting Actress – Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Documentary – Summer of Soul
Film Not in the English Language – Drive My Car
Casting – West Side Story
Cinematography – Dune
Costume Design – Cruella
Makeup and Hair – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Original Score – Dune
Production Design – Dune
Sound – Dune
Special Visual Effects – Dune
Outstanding British Film – Belfast
What I Got Wrong:
Actor – Will Smith, King Richard (Predicted: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog)
Supporting Actor – Troy Kotsur, CODA (Predicted: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog)
Original Screenplay – Licorice Pizza (Predicted: Belfast)
Adapted Screenplay – CODA (Predicted: The Power of the Dog)
Animated Feature – Encanto (Predicted: Flee)
Editing – No Time to Die (Predicted: Dune)
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer – The Harder They Fall (Predicted: Passing)
Critics Choice Awards
What I Got Right:
Picture – The Power of the Dog
Director – Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Actor – Will Smith, King Richard
Supporting Actress – Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Adapted Screenplay – The Power of the Dog
Foreign Language Film – Drive My Car
Cinematography – The Power of the Dog
Costume Design – Cruella
Score – Dune
Visual Effects – Dune
What I Got Wrong:
Actress – Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Predicted: Kristen Stewart, Spencer)
Supporting Actor – Troy Kotsur, CODA (Predicted: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog)
Original Screenplay – Belfast (Predicted: Licorice Pizza)
Animated Feature – The Mitchells vs. the Machines (Predicted: Encanto)
Comedy – Licorice Pizza (Predicted: The French Dispatch)
Young Actor/Actress – Jude Hill, Belfast (Predicted: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story)
Acting Ensemble – Belfast (Predicted: The Power of the Dog)
Editing – West Side Story (Predicted: Dune)
Hair and Makeup – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Predicted: House of Gucci)
Production Design – Dune (Predicted: Nightmare Alley)
Song – “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (Predicted: “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up)
Commentary –
Let’s start with the acting races. I would venture to say now that those four categories all have strong frontrunners: Jessica Chastain and Will Smith in lead and Ariana DeBose and Troy Kotsur in supporting. Smith and DeBose, in particular, appear unbeatable while Chastain and Kotsur are easy odds-on favorites.
Dune should win plenty of the down the line competitions and appears bound to win the most Oscars overall.
The screenplay races are filled with genuine drama. CODA taking Adapted Screenplay over The Power of the Dog at the BAFTAs was a shocker, but it could be a sign of things to come from the Academy (though I wouldn’t wager money on that). Original Screenplay is absolutely a two-horse race between Belfast and Licorice Pizza.
Drive My Car is going to take International Feature Film. Simple as that. Summer of Soul looks to be in solid shape for Doc. And even though The Mitchells vs. the Machines managed to take the critics prize, Disney’s Encanto is probably still out front for the Oscar.
In other down the line derbies, the double victories in Makeup and Hairstyling for The Eyes of Tammy Faye and Cruella in Costume Design make them favorites.
And despite The Power of the Dog not picking up some trophies at both ceremonies, it did so with Picture and Director at both. And it should do so on Oscar night.
That’s all for now! Next week (probably on Wednesday), look for my FINAL Oscar winner predictions!
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