Tag: The Pope's Exorcist

June 28-30 Box Office Predictions

Horror prequel A Quiet Place: Day One will attempt to make enough noise to knock Inside Out 2 from its third week atop the charts, but that could be a tall order. We also have Kevin Costner’s epic Western Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 and the semi-wide expansion of the Yorgos Lanthimos anthology Kinds of Kindness out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio right here:

A Quiet Place: Day One Box Office Prediction
Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction
Kinds of Kindness Box Office Prediction

My mid 40s projection for Quiet would be right in line with expectations and a tad under predecessor A Quiet Place Part II from 2021. That should put it firmly in second.

That’s because animated box office behemoth Inside Out 2 might ease around 40% for a third weekend in first after its record breaking performance during its second frame (more on that below).

Horizon is a legit question mark. Some estimates have it as low as $10 million and that would likely put it in fourth behind the fourth outing of Bad Boys: Ride or Die. Despite lackluster reviews and a three-hour runtime, I think it might manage low teens for third if enough Yellowstone viewers turn up.

The Bikeriders, with significant competition for adult eyeballs, should fall around 50% to fifth after a so-so start. As for Kinds of Kindness (which just scored the biggest PTA of 2024 on five screens), it is expanding to approximately 500 venues Friday and a gross just above $3 million might be enough for sixth.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $61.5 million

2. A Quiet Place: Day One

Predicted Gross: $46.3 million

3. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

4. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

5. The Bikeriders

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

6. Kinds of Kindness

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (June 21-23)

Disney/Pixar broke its own record (previously held by Incredibles 2) with the second highest animated weekend in history at $101.2 million. That bests my $93.6 million projection as the mighty sequel is up to $356 million in just ten days. A billion plus worldwide haul seems to be in the making. This is also vying for title of summer 2024’s heftiest domestic grosser with Deadpool & Wolverine seemingly the only challenger.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die held in second at $18.8 million, a bit shy of my $21.3 million take. The three-week gross is $147 million.

The Bikeriders couldn’t quite reach double digits in third with $9.6 million compared to my $10.5 million forecast. With an unimpressive B Cinemascore, this should stall out in subsequent weekends.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was fourth with $3.8 million (I said $4.1 million) for a seven-week tally of $164 million.

The Garfield Movie closely followed in fifth with $3.7 million and I incorrectly had it outside the high five. It has made $85 million after five weeks.

IF was sixth with $2.7 million as the family friendly original hit $106 million after six weeks.

I was a little too kind to Russell Crowe’s The Exorcism. His second feature with this subject matter in a year’s time (after The Pope’s Exorcist) was underwater in seventh with $2.4 million. I predicted $3.2 million.

Finally, I didn’t do an estimate for the critically acclaimed comedy Thelma with June Squibb. It was eighth with $2.3 million which is pretty decent considering it’s on less than 1300 screens.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 21-23 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (06/20): We have yet to even see a theater count for The Exorcism so I’m downgrading my estimate from $6.2 million to $3.2 million

The Bikeriders and The Exorcism enter a marketplace in which Inside Out 2 greatly exceeded expectations last weekend. The summer box office is finally looking up, but the two new entries could struggle for exposure. My detailed prediction posts on them can be accessed here:

The Bikeriders Box Office Prediction
The Exorcism Box Office Prediction

There’s no doubt that Inside Out 2 will be perched in 1st for a second weekend. A high 30s to low 40s decline would put it in the low to mid 90s. A sequel in its third frame – Bad Boys: Ride or Die – should remain in the runner-up slot with a mid 30s to 40% ease.

Now we get to the newbies. With decent reviews and the star power of Austin Butler, Tom Hardy, and Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders could still sputter with a third place showing. I think the big question is whether it reaches double digits and I have it barely accomplishing that minor goal.

As for The Exorcism, Russell Crowe’s second horror pic in as many years dealing with the subject matter probably won’t reach the $10 million that The Pope’s Exorcist did in April of 2023.

The five spot may go to holdover Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes in its seventh week of release and here’s how I have the high five playing out:

1. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $93.6 million

2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

3. The Bikeriders

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

5. The Exorcism

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (June 14-16)

Disney/Pixar were feeling all the happy emotions as Inside Out 2 blasted past forecasts for the 2nd best animated opening of all time. That would also be the 2nd largest Pixar haul behind record holder Incredibles 2. The sequel to the 2015 Oscar winning blockbuster posted $154.2 million, way beyond my $92.4 million call. It’s also the biggest 2024 premiere thus far.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die only fell 40% after its huge start with $33.7 million, riding past my $29.8 million take. The fourth entry in the three-decade old franchise has amassed $113 million.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes actually rose 2% to $5.5 million in third, dwarfing my $3.1 million projection as this sequel’s six-week tally is $158 million.

The over performance of Inside Out 2 caused other family friendly titles to plummet. The Garfield Movie was fourth with $4.7 million (I said $6.1 million) for $78 million in four weeks. IF was fifth with $3.6 million (I said $4.9 million) for $101 million in five weeks.

Finally, The Watchers was sixth in its sophomore frame with $3.5 million compared to my $2.9 million prediction. The two-week total is $13 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Exorcism Box Office Prediction

**Blogger’s Update (06/20): We have yet to even see a theater count for The Exorcism so I’m downgrading my estimate from $6.2 million to $3.2 million

The Exorcism looks to quench the moviegoing public’s thirst for mixing Russell Crowe with demonic possessions on June 21st. The horror flick arrives only a year behind the lead playing The Pope’s Exorcist. Those two pics aren’t related as Joshua John Miller directs with a supporting cast including Ryan Simpkins, Sam Worthington, Chloe Bailey, Adam Goldberg, Adrian Padsar, and David Hyde Pierce.

In April of 2023, The Pope’s Exorcist managed to open at the higher end of its expected range with a little over $9 million and an eventual $20 million gross. It is fair to wonder if genre enthusiasts are pining for another helping of its star and subject matter.

Scary movies have struggled in 2024 and this might need divine intervention to exceed $10 million for its start. I doubt it will.

The Exorcism opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my The Bikeriders prediction, click here:

The Bikeriders Box Office Prediction

Immaculate Box Office Prediction

Sydney Sweeney is in Scream Queen mode when Immaculate is delivered to theaters on March 22nd. The fright fest finds the Euphoria, Anyone but You, and Madame Web star as a devout nun uncovering demonic happenings in the Italian countryside. Michael Mohan directs with a supporting cast including Álvaro Morte, Benedetta Porcaroli, Dora Romano, Giorgio Colangeli, and Simona Tabasco.

The Neon distributed effort is generating uneven reviews (it premiered at South by Southwest earlier this week). The RT meter stands at 64%. I haven’t seen a screen count and the marketing campaign seems a bit on the underwhelming side.

Horror can exceed expectations and that might hold true with Immaculate. Yet I wonder if this can manage the $9M+ that The Pope’s Exorcist achieved for its start last year. It might be lucky to earn half of that.

Immaculate opening weekend prediction: $4.9 million

For my Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire prediction, click here:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Box Office Prediction

The Pope’s Exorcist Review

There’s a moment in the third act of The Pope’s Exorcist where we hear the internal monologue of a main character in the throws of their demonic experience. It got me thinking that might make for a compelling and fresh angle in a genre made famous 50 years ago with Regan and her backwards turning head. I have accurately described it as a moment. It’s over before we know it and reminded me a little of what Tom Hardy hears in Venom after his symbiotic takeover. With Russell Crowe having a ball in Julius Avery’s horror thriller, Exorcist has a few quirky moments that I appreciated before it reverts to the tropes we’re familiar with.

The screenplay’s peculiar nature is evident in the first scene. We are introduced to Father Gabriele Amorth (Crowe), who served as the Pope’s go-to exorcism guy for decades beginning in the 1970s. That’s in real life, folks! You can look it up on Wiki and it’s a fascinating read. I’m sure Amorth’s books are as well. He claims to have performed 100k+ of the purification rituals. The opening sequence finds Amorth in 1987 transferring the evil vibes to a pig, who is then violently transferred to breakfast.

Crowe proceeds to ham it up around the nuns and his superiors in Vatican City as he awaits the next assignment. Many of his fellow priests think he needs a demotion. The head pontiff (Franco Nero) believes otherwise and he’s soon riding his Vespa to an abandoned abbey in Spain.

That’s where American widow Julia (Alex Essoe), teenage daughter Amy (Laurel Marsden), and preteen Henry (Peter DeSouza-Feighoney) are residing after their departed patriarch willed them the property. The monastery holds centuries old secrets under its rickety structure and a nasty spirit soon overtakes Henry. A local Father (Daniel Zovatto) can’t figure out the invader so Amorth is assigned. The young boy’s demon proves canny at using his would-be exorcist’s previous sins against him.

One could claim that The Pope’s Exorcist offers nothing new to the frequently explored material. I could argue the opposite. After all, I hadn’t seen the pig angle and there’s also papal projectile vomiting. Avery, Crowe, and screenwriters Michael Petroni and Evan Spiliotopoulos are to be commended for its campy B-movie spirit. Amorth has a habit of exclaiming “CUCKOO!” at passersby during unexpected times. The cuckoo bits work often enough that I had little trouble putting up with the expected sections of traditional possession.

*** (out of four)

April 28-30 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (04/26): I am revising my Big George Foreman estimate down from $8.5M to $5.7M

The Super Mario Bros. Movie should have a fourth and final weekend atop the charts before Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 kicks off May and the summer cinematic season. Coming-of-age dramedy Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret and boxing biopic Big George Foreman also the newbies entering the ring. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret Box Office Prediction
Big George Foreman Box Office Prediction

The revolving door at #2 should belong to Margaret, based on the 1970 Judy Blume bestseller. While a gross approaching $20 million is feasible, I’ll say mid teens is where it lands. It will bank on strong holds in its subsequent frames.

As for Big George Foreman, it might find itself in a close race with the second weekend of Evil Dead Rise for third position. I have Rise falling in the low to mid 60s (similar to the 2013 predecessor Evil Dead). If that occurs, it might win a close decision vs. Foreman.

Mario should have no trouble dominating once again and a mid 30s dip would give it just under $40 million in that fourth outing.

Finally, I have holdover John Wick: Chapter 4 in fifth. That slot could go to Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant or Air, though I have Keanu and company experiencing the smallest decline.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $39.4 million

2. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million

3. Evil Dead Rise

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

4. Big George Foreman

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

5. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

Box Office Results (April 21-23)

As anticipated, it was a three-peat for The Super Mario Bros. Movie as it collected another $59.9 million in coinage. Blasting beyond my $54.8 million prediction, Illumination’s animated juggernaut has amassed $436 million domestically.

Evil Dead Rise proved there’s no horror fatigue for audiences following recent efforts Scream VI, The Pope’s Exorcist, and Renfield. The fifth pic in the franchise opened with an impressive $24.5 million, elevating past my $16.7 million take. That’s just a shade behind what 2013’s Dead ($25.7 million) kicked off with.

Afghanistan War drama Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant with Jake Gyllenhaal couldn’t fill its theaters with a middling $6.3 million. It did premiere a tad ahead of my $5.6 million forecast, but that’s still an unimpressive result.

John Wick: Chapter 4 was fourth with $5.8 million compared to my $4.7 million projection with $168 million in the coffers.

Fifth place belonged to Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves with $5.5 million (I said $4.3 million) as the franchise hopeful is straining to reach nine digits at $82 million.

Air was sixth with $5.4 million in the third weekend – in line with my $4.6 million guesstimate. Total is $41 million.

Plummeting from 2nd to 7th is The Pope’s Exorcist, falling victim to the power of Evil Dead . Down 62% in its sophomore frame with $3.4 million, I was more generous at $4.6 million. The ten-day tally is $15 million.

The story is similar for Renfield, down 59% in weekend #2 with $3.2 million (I went with $3.9 million). The tepid two-week total is $13 million.

Finally, Beau Is Afraid with Joaquin Phoenix (generating wildly divergent reactions) played well in very limited NY/LA showings last weekend. Yet it stumbled in wider release. The multi-genre odyssey made $2.7 million on just under 1000 screens. I was higher at $4.4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

And in the meantime, listen to my box office thoughts on your favorite podcast platform by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation!

April 21-23 Box Office Predictions

The Super Mario Bros. Movie should rule the charts for a third weekend as Evil Dead Rise and Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant open in wide release. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Evil Dead Rise Box Office Prediction
Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant Box Office Prediction

Evil Dead Rise appears headed for a second place showing. However, the fifth pic in the horror franchise that started over 40 years ago is unlikely to match the mid-twenties haul that its 2013 predecessor managed. That’s despite strong reviews. Some recent horror saturation might mean a low to mid teens premiere.

As for Afghanistan War drama The Covenant with Jake Gyllenhaal, this is a genre that often struggles for eyeballs. It could certainly outpace my mid single digits projection (which should still be good for third), but my gut says this won’t impress.

Spots 4-8 should be holdovers whose difference could be less than a million bucks. I have John Wick: Chapter 4 leading that group with Renfield having the biggest percentage drop and coming in 8th.

Some other notes before I get to the power player. The historical drama Chevalier is slated to come out on around 1200 screens. I think the ceiling could be $2.5 million and I didn’t do an individual post for it.

Then there’s Beau is Afraid. Ari Aster’s three-hour opus with Joaquin Phoenix is garnering some raves and some derision from critics. It had a sizzling limited debut on only 4 screens. Beau is opening wider this weekend, but I’ve yet to see a theater count. Depending on how many venues it’s playing in, it could pop up in the top 5. However, I can’t make an educated guesstimate (yet) until I see a number. **Update (04/19): I’ve now done a prediction for this since a theater count is released:

Beau Is Afraid Box Office Prediction

As for the third frame of Mario, I’ve got it falling in the high 30s to low 40s for a mid to high 5os gross. My prediction gives it the ninth best third weekend of all time after it just had the seventh largest second one. I’ll give this caveat: I’ve been low for two weeks in a row on this pic.

So with all that said, here’s my look at the top 8:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $54.8 million

2. Evil Dead Rise

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million

3. Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

4. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

5. The Pope’s Exoricst

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

6. Air

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

**7. Beau is Afraid

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million (ADDED PREDICTION**)

8. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

9. Renfield

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

Box Office Results (April 14-16)

It’s a Nintendo Cinematic Universe and we’re just living in it as The Super Mario Bros. Movie once again exceeded expectations in its sophomore frame. Illumination’s animated phenomenon piped in another $92.3 million, far exceeding my $74.9 million take. The two-week tally is an astonishing $353 million. There is a real possibility that this could end up as the highest domestic grosser of 2023.

Russell Crowe’s horror tale The Pope’s Exorcist surprisingly was second with $9 million, edging past my $7.4 million forecast. With a reported $18 million budget, that’s not too shabby though hardly glorious.

John Wick: Chapter 4 was third with $8 million (in range with my $8.4 million call). It’s up to $160 million after 4 weeks.

Spooky comedy Renfield with Nicolas Cage as Dracula was anticipated to see second place, but it wasn’t to be. The fourth place showing at $8 million fell below my $12.2 million estimate. With a fairly sucky B- Cinemascore, look for it to fade quickly.

Air was fifth with $7.8 million in its second weekend. I thought it would hold better and went with $9.5 million. Nevertheless its $33 million total thus far is solid for an adult drama.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves was sixth with $7.5 million (I said $6.9 million) for a so-so $74 million after three weeks.

Toho’s Japanese animated fantasy Suzume couldn’t live up to previous titles from the distributor. It was seventh with $5 million and I was more generous at $8.7 million.

I never did an official prediction for Mafia Mamma with Toni Collette, but I said the poorly reviewed comedy would be lucky to make $2 million. Well, I guess it was lucky because that’s exactly what it did for 8th.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

***In the meantime, catch my weekly podcast talking box office at Movies at the Speed of Speculation (wherever you stream!).

Evil Dead Rise Box Office Prediction

Evil Dead Rise books passage into multiplexes ten years after Sam Raimi’s franchise was rebooted the first time around to lively box office results. Like its 2013 predecessor (which this is not a sequel to), it premiered to praise at South by Southwest in March. Lee Cronin directs a cast including Lily Sullivan, Alyssa Sutherland, and Morgan Davies.

The original Evil Dead from 1981, its 1987 sequel, and 1993’s Army of Darkness from Raimi and star Bruce Campbell are horror comedy classics with deeply devoted followings. When Fede Álvarez’s reboot arrived a decade ago, it received some criticism for lacking the humor of the original trilogy. Nevertheless it debuted to $25 million and that turned out to be a front loaded start as it ended with $54 million domestically.

Rise‘s reviews are far stronger with a Rotten Tomateos score of 94% (compared to 63% for 2013’s effort). While audiences have certainly seen their share of the genre as of late with Scream VI, Renfield, and The Pope’s Exorcist, the brand name and solid buzz might mean $20 million plus is doable. That said, the market is feeing oversaturated and low to mid teens could be the result.

Evil Dead Rise opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million

For my Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant prediction, click here:

Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant Box Office Prediction

For my Beau Is Afraid prediction, click here:

Beau Is Afraid Box Office Prediction

April 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Those animated Nintendo plumbers should dominate the box office once again after a massive Easter haul, but there are newcomers to ponder. We have horror comedy Renfield with Nicolas Cage and Nicholas Hoult, less funny horror tale The Pope’s Exorcist featuring Russell Crowe, and Japanese animated fantasy Suzume. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:

Renfield Box Office Prediction
The Pope’s Exorcist Box Office Prediction
Suzume Box Office Prediction

Nothing will approach the sophomore frame for The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which soared in its first five days of release (more on that below). The question is not whether it will remain #1 (it will easily), but how far it falls. With an A Cinemascore and no competition for families, I’ll say it drops in the 50% range.

Renfield is garnering pretty decent reviews and a double digits to low teens output should allow it to be the runner-up. Suzume is a little trickier. Other Toho titles have exceeded $10 million for their beginnings and this could do the same. I’m projecting it a tad under for a fourth place showing behind the sophomore weekend for Air (which should have a nice hold).

The Pope’s Exorcist is also a bit of a head scratcher. Horror flicks can certainly over perform and this did decent business overseas this past weekend. Yet with Renfield providing a diversion for eyeballs, this might not even make the top 5.

Finally, I’ll dispense with Mafia Mamma. This Bleecker Street comedy stars Toni Collette and seems to be flying far under the radar. I didn’t do an individual prognosis post for it and haven’t seen a screen count. Given the distributor’s lack of success with earlier projects, this might be lucky to hit $2 million. That would put it nowhere near the high five.

Given that numbers 3-7 especially could be close, I’ll give you my outlook for those spots:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $74.9 million

2. Renfield

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

3. Air

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

4. Suzume

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

5. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

6. The Pope’s Exorcist

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

Box Office Results (April 7-9)

Illumination Entertainment doesn’t really miss when it comes to putting out animated blockbusters (think Despicable Me, Minions, Sing, The Secret Life of Pets franchises). Now they clearly have a host of Nintendo properties that will shower them with coins. The Super Mario Bros. Movie vastly exceeded expectations with $146.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $204.6 million since its Wednesday premiere. That is, to say the least, better than my respective estimates of $98.6 million and $137.7 million. The temperature was clearly right for its massive breakthrough performance as its global $377 million gross is the best ever for an animated feature.

John Wick: Chapter 4 stayed put in second with $14.4 million (on target with my $14.6 million call). The three-week total stands at $146 million.

Ben Affleck’s Air rode a wave of rising buzz to impressive numbers. It made $14.4 million for third with $20.2 million since its Wednesday start. The sports drama managed to top my takes which were $12.7 million and $18.9 million. As mentioned, this should hold up well in the coming weekends.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves was the biggest victim of the Mario wave. In its second weekend, the adventure tumbled 63% to $13.8 million. I was more optimistic with $16.8 million. The ten-day domestic tally is $61 million as its future as a franchise is murky.

Scream VI was fifth with $3.4 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five as it crossed the century mark after five weeks with $103 million.

Finally, faith-based drama His Only Son failed to capitalize on the religious holiday with $2.8 million for sixth. I thought it might do a bit better in frame #2 and said $3.8 million. It’s made $10 million.

Check out my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation wherever you stream!

Until next time…

Suzume Box Office Prediction

Suzume is the latest animated fantasy from Makoto Shinkai, maker of 2019’s acclaimed Weathering with You. The Japanese production comes from Toho, the studio behind Godzilla and the Demon Slayer pics that have recently posted impressive grosses stateside.

In fact, Toho’s titles in the U.S. have started to develop a familiar pattern of front loaded hauls. In March of 2022, Jujutsu Kaisen 0 made over $17 million during its first frame. That ended up being over half of its eventual $33 million domestic take. Just last month, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village made off with $10.1 million in a special engagement sole weekend.

Like those efforts, Suzume has already made a killing in its home country. With over $100 million in the bank, it is the fourth highest grossing film in Japan from last year.

Opening on approximately 2000 screens, this could hit low double digits like Swordsmith. Compared with next weekend’s other newcomers, that would put it behind Renfield and perhaps ahead of The Pope’s Exorcist. I’m going to put it in higher single digits and that’s still in front of Exorcist.

Suzume opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million

For my Renfield prediction, click here:

Renfield Box Office Prediction

For my The Pope’s Exorcist prediction, click here:

The Pope’s Exorcist Box Office Prediction