Box Office Predictions: March 11-13

Four new titles debut this weekend at the box office to try and challenge Zootopia after its record breaking debut. They are: semi-sequel 10 Cloverfield Lane, Sacha Baron Cohen comedy The Brothers Grimsby, Biblical drama The Young Messiah, and rom com The Perfect Match. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

As I see it, Disney’s Zootopia should fairly easily control the #1 spot for the second weekend in a row, unless Cloverfield significantly exceeds my prognosis. The real battle among the newcomers could be for the #3 slot and I have Messiah slightly edging Grimsby. The number five position could be a battle between holdovers London Has Fallen and Deadpool as I believe the former will have a higher percentage dropoff than the latter. Opening on a limited number of screens, my $4.1M prediction for The Perfect Match should keep it outside the top six.

And with that, my top 6 predictions for this weekend:

Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $41.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)

2. 10 Cloverfield Lane

Predicted Gross: $28.3 million

3. The Young Messiah

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

4. The Brothers Grimsby

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. London Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

6. Deadpool

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million (representing a drop of 44%)

Box Office Results (March 4-6)

Disney had a banner weekend as Zootopia had the largest traditional animation opening ever for the studio at a blazing $75 million, soaring past my meager $54.4M projection. The animal tale can also claim highest animated debut for the month of March. As mentioned, it should easily stampede its competitors and remain in first next weekend.

Action sequel London Has Fallen couldn’t match its predecessor Olympus Has Fallen‘s $30M premiere from three years ago. The badly reviewed follow-up earned $21.6 million, under my $24.6M prediction and I look for it to lose over half its audience in its sophomore frame.

Deadpool dropped to third with $16.7 million (in line with my $16.9M estimate) for an incredible tally of $311M.

Tina Fey’s so-so reviewed war comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot had a soft opening for fourth with $7.4 million, a tad below my $8.4M projection.

In fifth, box office dud Gods of Egypt took a nosedive from its dismal debut last weekend with $5.1 million (I was slightly kinder with $5.8M) for a total of $23M.

Finally, British horror offering The Other Side of the Door opened in limited fashion with only $1.2 million (compared to my $2.1M estimate) for just 16th place.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: March 4-6

A quartet of new releases start out the month of March at the box office this weekend. They are Disney Animation’s Zootopia, action sequel London Has Fallen, Tina Fey war comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, and British horror entry The Other Side of the Door. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/zootopia-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/london-has-fallen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/whiskey-tango-foxtrot-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/the-other-side-of-the-door-box-office-prediction/

Zootopia should have no trouble ending the three week domination of Deadpool atop the charts while I expect London to hit the #2 spot, putting Ryan Reynolds’ vulgar superhero in the three spot with Whiskey placing fourth. Box office dud Gods of Egypt should be fifth in its second weekend, as long as its anticipated hefty decline doesn’t allow Kung Fu Panda 3 to remain in the top five. As for The Other Side of the Door, it’s only opening on around 500 screens and my $2.1 million prediction for it leaves it far outside the top five.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $54.4 million

2. London Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $24.6 million

3. Deadpool

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

5. Gods of Egypt

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 58%)

Box Office Results (February 26-28)

As anticipated, Deadpool maintained the #1 position for the third weekend in a row. The three new entries were, as Donald Trump might say, “low energy”. Ryan Reynolds’ phenomenon took in $31.1 million (compared to my $28M forecast) for a total of $285M.

Gods of Egypt proved to be the first massive bomb of the year as the inexplicably budgeted $140 million action fantasy grossed just $14.1 million, which was on pace with my $13.9M estimate.

Animated sequel Kung Fu Panda 3 was third in weekend #5 with $8.8 million, in line with my $8.2M projection for a total gross of $128M.

Biblical drama Risen was fourth in its sophomore frame with $6.8 million, right there with my $7.1M prediction for a ten day total of $22M.

Two newcomers had soft debuts for the fifth and sixth slots. Heist thriller Triple 9 earned $6.1 million (just below my prediction of $6.9M) for fifth while Olympic drama Eddie the Eagle was iced in sixth with only $6 million (I was much kinder with an $11.2M estimate).

And that’ll do it for now. folks! Until next time…

The Other Side of the Door Box Office Prediction

**Blogger’s note (Friday, February 26) – due to announced screen count of only about 500, I’m revising my original prediction of $4.1 million to just $2.1 million

British supernatural horror flick The Other Side of the Door opens next weekend and will try to bring in genre fans. Other may find that door closed, as this low budget entry from director Johannes Roberts (who’s helmed a number of scare pics you’ve likely never heard of) seems to be gaining little traction stateside. Sarah Wayne Callies from TV’s “The Walking Dead” and Jeremy Sisto star.

Early reviews have been weak and this probably will be lucky to gross half of what January’s The Boy accomplished with $10.7 million. I’ll say it doesn’t and this should be streaming on VOD quite soon.

The Other Side of the Door opening weekend prediction: $2.1 million

For my Zootopia prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/zootopia-box-office-prediction/

For my London Has Fallen prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/london-has-fallen-box-office-prediction/

For my Whiskey Tango Foxtrot prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/whiskey-tango-foxtrot-box-office-prediction/

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