2008’s animated Star Wars: The Clone Wars is the only LucasFilm entry in nearly 50 years that failed to grab at least one Academy Award mention. The other 11 movies – Episodes I-IX, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, and Solo: A Star Wars Story – have a combined 37 nominations. The Mandalorian and the Grogu could be the second title not to register with Oscar voters.
A continuation of the Disney Plus series, Jon Favreau directs with Pedro Pascal and Sigourney Weaver headlining and Jeremy Allen White providing voiceover work. A number of reviews are claiming it’s an unimpressive feature in the famed franchise with 61% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 54 Metacritic. That’s lower than the numbers that greeted Solo in 2018. It received a sole nomination for Visual Effects. That category and Ludwig Göransson’s score might be Grogu‘s only shots at inclusion, but it is entirely possible it won’t be included in ballots at all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Mandalorian and Grogu marks the first Star Wars theatrical entry in six years and it should easily rule the Memorial Day weekend charts. We also have horror flick Passenger and Boots Riley’s absurdist comedy I Love Boosters premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
While Mandolarian will certainly have no trouble placing first, the opening could be rather weak by Star Wars standards. I am forecasting that the continuation of the Disney Plus series will fall under $100 million for the four-day and that would be considered an unimpressive start.
Passenger could fall victim to the buzz surrounding fellow scary movie Obsession in its sophomore outing (more on its debut below). I have it outside of the top five.
Same goes for Boosters which could be looking at eighth place in the lower to mid single digits. I’m not convinced that mostly solid reviews will cause it to exceed expectations.
As for holdovers, there could be a close race for second. Current champ Michael might be the safe bet. However, Obsession may not see much of a drop at all in weekend #2 thanks to word-of-mouth and an A- Cinemascore (very high for its genre). In fact, I have it slightly increasing.
The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Sheep Detectives, and Mortal Kombat II should be 4-6 and here’s how I see the 3-day and 4-day grosses shaking out:
1. The Mandalorian and Grogu
Predicted Gross: $80.3 million (Fri-Sun); $94.7 million (Fri-Mon)
2. Michael
Predicted Gross: $18.8 million (Fri-Sun); $23.9 million (Fri-Mon)
3. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $17.5 million (Fri-Sun); $22.9 million (Fri-Mon)
4. The Devil Wears Prada 2
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million (Fri-Sun); $12.6 million (Fri-Mon)
5. The Sheep Detectives
Predicted Gross: $7 million (Fri-Sun); $8.9 million (Fri-Mon)
6. Passenger
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (Fri-Sun); $7.3 million (Fri-Mon)
7. Mortal Kombat II
Predicted Gross: $6 million (Fri-Sun); $7.2 million (Fri-Mon)
8. I Love Boosters
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million (Fri-Sun); $4.5 million (Fri-Mon)
Box Office Results (May 15-17)
Michael made a return to the top spot in its fourth week with $26.1 million, right on target with my $25.8 million call. The King of Pop biopic has (moon)walked away with $282 million in domestic dollars thus far.
The Devil Wears Prada 2, after two weeks in first, fell to second with $17.8 million. That 57% decline is steeper than my $23 million estimate though it’s grown to $175 million total.
Obsession is the story of the weekend. Budgeted at a reported $1 million and purchased by Focus Features for approximately $15 million, it slayed in third with $17.1 million. That’s well beyond my meager $9.6 million projection as it looks to play well throughout the season.
In fourth, Mortal Kombat II plummeted 65% in weekend #2 to $13.4 million. My prediction? $13.4 million! The martial arts sequel stands at $62 million.
The Sheep Detectives was fifth with $9.5 million (I said $10.2 million) for a decent two-week tally of $29 million.
Finally, Guy Ritchie’s In the Grey starring Henry Cavill and Jake Gyllenhaal was a dud in ninth with $2.9 million. I was generous at $5.9 million.
Following a nearly six and a half year break between big screen releases, the Star Wars franchise blasts back into theaters over the Memorial Day holiday with The Mandalorian and Grogu. Building upon the Disney+ series The Mandalorian that aired from 2019 to 2023, Pedro Pascal returns in the title role with Jeremy Allen White voicing Rotta the Hutt and Sigourney Weaver in the human cast. Jon Favreau, who created the TV series, directs.
After Disney prioritized streaming content in the 2020s, this looks to kickstart multiplex studio efforts with Star Wars: Starfighter slated to open next Memorial Day weekend. Grogu is a real test for Star Wars fan loyalty. It can be argued that this would have fared better when the Disney+ show was fresher in the minds of viewers. The last two theatrical efforts -2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story and 2019’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, were considered letdowns critically and commercially.
The best comp is Solo which debuted over the same holiday frame with $84 million from Friday to Sunday and $103 million when factoring Monday. Disney is surely hoping for nine figure bragging rights. I’m putting it under that for what would be considered a so-so start.
The Mandalorian and Grogu opening weekend prediction: $80.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $94.7 million (Friday to Monday)
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