Since 2016, the NBC drama This Is Us has kept viewers in a perpetual state of tears and it’s been a massive hit for the network. As the show’s popularity has continued, the various leads on the family affair have seen their movie offers increase.
When looking at how Oscar voters could reward the work of these actors that have garnered plenty of Emmy nods, there’s some we can quickly discount. Don’t look for Milo Ventimiglia to contend for The Art of Racing in the Rain. His onscreen wife Mandy Moore won’t get supporting actress attention for next weekend’s Midway. Justin Hartley will not be feted for Little or Jexi. And while A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood could see Tom Hanks receive another nomination, the same won’t hold true for Susan Kelechi Watson.
That brings us to Watson’s TV hubby Sterling K. Brown. His big screen family drama Waves has gotten raves on the film festival circuit. It would appear his performance is most likely to appear on the radar of the awards crowd. Yet there’s a problem. 2019’s crop of supporting actor possibilities is packed. The list includes the aforementioned Hanks in Neighborhood, Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, both Al Pacino and Joe Pesci for The Irishman, Anthony Hopkins in The Two Popes, Willem Dafoe in The Lighthouse, and Jamie Foxx for Just Mercy. The race simply might be too crowded for Brown.
Surprisingly, the best chance for an Us thespian to get into the Academy derby might come in an unexpected category. This spring’s faith based release Breakthrough featured Chrissy Metz in the cast. Her acting will not be honored. However, Metz did cut an original song for the soundtrack titled “I’m Standing With You”. The songwriter is Diane Warren and she’s no stranger to Oscar. Warren has landed ten nods for her work, including songs from the last two years – “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall and “I’ll Fight” from RBG. The Best Original Song race is still uncertain, but Disney appears bound to get in with expected selections from Toy Story 4, Frozen II, Aladdin, and The Lion King. There’s also tracks from Rocketman and Cats that could factor in. Still, Metz’s pipes probably have the highest chance for recognition over the acting skills of her fellow cast members.
My latest round of Oscar predictions brings the following developments:
Little Women has held industry screenings and greatly improved its chances at multiple nominations. It’s back in my predicted ten Best Picture contenders and that’s bad news for Ford v Ferrari.
Speaking of Ferrari, it was announced that Christian Bale will contend for Best Actor and not supporting, which is where I’ve had him predicted for weeks. This designation significantly decreases his shot and I have him ranked in 8th. The benefactor in Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe for The Lighthouse.
Back to Little Women. The standout is said to be Florence Pugh, so I now have her down for Supporting Actress, knocking out Shuzhen Zhou in The Farewell.
Speaking of The Farewell, my fifth spot in Actress continues to change as that picture’s Awkwafina slides to sixth with Alfre Woodard (Clemency) in.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood nabs the #1 slot in Picture over The Irishman. It’s a razor thin margin.
Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. The Irishman (PR: 1)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Parasite (PR: 3)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
6. 1917 (PR: 5)
7. Bombshell (PR: 9)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 12)
10. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
11. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
12. The Farewell (PR: 11)
13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)
14. Waves (PR: 14)
15. Richard Jewell (PR: 15)
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 2)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
8. Jay Roach, Bombshell (PR: 10)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)
8. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting)
9. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
10. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 2)
3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 7)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)
10. Isabelle Huppert, Frankie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
3. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 8)
4. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 5)
7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 6)
9. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, Little Women
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 4)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 3)
5. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 8)
8. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 9)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
10. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (moved to lead)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 6)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 5)
7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)
8. Judy (PR: 8)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
10. Richard Jewell (PR: 10)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Bombshell (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pain and Glory (PR: 8)
7. Waves (PR: 6)
8. 1917 (PR: 7)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Booksmart
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 4)
4. Those Who Remained (PR: 6)
5. Monos (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Atlantics (PR: 3)
7. Beanpole (PR: 7)
8. And Then We Danced (PR: 8)
9. A White, White Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Traitor (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Papicha
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. Weathering with You (PR: 5)
5. I Lost My Body (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Missing Link (PR: 4)
7. Abominable (PR: 7)
8. Funan (PR: 9)
9. Okko’s Inn (PR: 10)
10. Klaus (PR: 8)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 2)
2. Apollo 11 (PR: 1)
3. One Child Nation (PR: 4)
4. The Cave (PR: 5)
5. Maiden (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)
7. Diego Maradona (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Knock Down the House (PR: 10)
9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 7)
10. Western Stars (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aquarela
Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story By Martin Scorsese
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 2)
2. 1917 (PR: 1)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. A Hidden Life (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 9)
8. Parasite (PR: 4)
9. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Marriage Story
Jojo Rabbit
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Little Women (PR: 3)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
4. Downton Abbey (PR: 1)
5. Rocketman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Judy (PR: 6)
8. 1917 (PR: 9)
9. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aladdin
Jojo Rabbit
BEST FILM EDITING
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 5)
5. 1917 (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)
9. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ad Astra
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 2)
2. The Irishman (PR: 1)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
4. Judy (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 9)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
8. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 5)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. A Hidden Life (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
9. Joker (PR: 9)
10. Ad Astra
Dropped Out:
Waves
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 6)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 5)
8. “The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 4)
9. “One Little Soldier” from Bombshell (PR: 8)
10. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
”Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 4)
3. Little Women (PR: 5)
4. 1917 (PR: 2)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Cats (PR: 6)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 10)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Ford v Ferrari
Aladdin
BEST SOUND EDITING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
3. 1917 (PR: 1)
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 8)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
8. Rocketman (PR: 4)
9. Cats (PR: 9)
10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lion King
BEST SOUND MIXING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
3. 1917 (PR: 2)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 4)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
8. The Irishman (PR: 8)
9. Cats (PR: 7)
10. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lion King
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
2. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 1)
4. The Lion King (PR: 4)
5. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)
7. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
8. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
9. 1917 (PR: 9)
10. Dumbo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Godzilla: King of the Monsters
And that equates to the following films getting the following number of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
7 Nominations
Little Women
5 Nominations
Bombshell
4 Nominations
Parasite, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Joker
2 Nominations
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, A Hidden Life, Judy, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Rocketman
1 Nomination
Alita: Battle Angel, American Factory, Apollo 11, Cats, The Cave, Clemency, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, Harriet, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Maiden, Monos, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Report, Those Who Remained, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You
My weekly Oscar predictions this Thursday brings a whole lot of changes in that I’m including every category covering feature films! Additionally, there’s now only 15 listed possibilities in Best Picture and ten in all other races.
For this format, my projections show The Irishman garnering the most nominations with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, and Marriage Story not far behind. Besides the cosmetic changes, here’s what else has transpired in the past seven days:
Bombshell, the true life of Fox News and the downfall of Roger Ailes, had its first industry screenings. The film immediately vaulted itself into contention in Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay (as well as Makeup & Hairstyling).
My inclusion of Bombshell in Best Picture means The Farewell has been taken out with The Two Popes and Joker as other on the bubble entries.
Not only does Charlize Theron’s work in Bombshell enter my Best Actress projections, but she comes in at #2. That drops Cynthia Erivo in Harriet out of the top five for the first time.
Margot Robbie’s performance in the picture puts her in and she bumps… Margot Robbie in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
In non Bombshell news, South Korean import Parasite had the best per screen average of 2019 in limited release. It’s the best reviewed movie of the year and its numbers game improves in Picture and Director this week.
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 6)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 4)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
9. Bombshell (PR: 18)
10. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Farewell (PR: 8)
12. Little Women (PR: 12)
13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)
14. Waves (PR: 13)
15. Richard Jewell (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Pain and Glory
Judy
Just Mercy
A Hidden Life
Rocketman
The Report
Booksmart
The Good Liar
Dark Waters
Ad Astra
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 4)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 3)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
8. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 7)
9. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 13)
10. Jay Roach, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life
Todd Phillips, Joker
Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 5)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)
9. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy
Ian McKellen, The Good Liar
Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters
Brad Pitt, Ad Astra
Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 7)
3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 3)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)
10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Isabelle Huppert, Frankie
Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart
Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts
Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell
Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
4. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)
8. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 9)
9. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 13)
10. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Sterling K. Brown, Waves
Alan Alda, Marriage Story
Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy
Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit
Zack Gottsagen, The Peanut Butter Falcon
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 12)
4. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 3)
5. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 6)
7. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
8. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 9)
9. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 8)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Hudson, Cats
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite Is My Name
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Little Women (PR: 6)
7. Just Mercy (PR: 8)
8. Judy (PR: 7)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
10. Richard Jewell (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Good Liar
Dark Waters
Hustlers
Toy Story 4
Luce
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Bombshell (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Waves (PR: 6)
7. 1917 (PR: 8)
8. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
9. Booksmart (PR: 9)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
The Report
Honey Boy
Dolemite Is My Name
Knives Out
Rocketman
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Atlantics
4. Les Miserables
5. Monos
Other Possibilities:
6. Those Who Remained
7. Beanpole
8. And Then We Danced
9. Papicha
10. The Traitor
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen II
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
4. Missing Link
5. Weathering with You
Other Possibilities:
6. I Lost My Body
7. Abominable
8. Klaus
9. Funan
10. Okko’s Inn
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Apollo 11
2. American Factory
3. Maiden
4. One Child Nation
5. The Cave
Other Possibilities:
6. The Biggest Little Farm
7. The Edge of Democracy
8. Aquarela
9. Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story By Martin Scorsese
10. Knock Down the House
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Parasite
5. The Lighthouse
OtherPossibilities:
6. Ad Astra
7. Ford v Ferrari
8. Marriage Story
9. Joker
10. Jojo Rabbit
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted Nominees:
1. Downton Abbey
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Little Women
4. Dolemite Is My Name
5. Rocketman
OtherPossibilities:
6. Judy
7. The Irishman
8. Aladdin
9. 1917
10. Jojo Rabbit
BEST EDITING
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. 1917
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Marriage Story
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite
7. Jojo Rabbit
8. Joker
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
10. Ad Astra
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman
2. Bombshell
3. Judy
4. Dolemite Is My Name
5. Little Women
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8. The Aeronauts
9. Rocketman
10. Cats
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. Little Women
4. Marriage Story
5. Jojo Rabbit
Other Possibilities:
6. The Aeronauts
7. Ford v Ferrari
8. A Hidden Life
9. Joker
10. Waves
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II
2. “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” from Rocketman
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet
4. “The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4
5. “Speechless” from Aladdin
Other Possibilities:
6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4
7. “Spirit” from The Lion King
8. “One Little Soldier” from Bombshell
9. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn
10. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. 1917
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Irishman
5. Little Women
Other Possibilities:
6. Cats
7. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
8. Ford v Ferrari
9. Aladdin
10. Downton Abbey
BEST SOUND EDITING
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Rocketman
5. Avengers: Endgame
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra
7. The Irishman
8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
9. Cats
10. The Lion King
BEST SOUND MIXING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari
2. 1917
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Rocketman
5. Ad Astra
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Endgame
7. Cats
8. The Irishman
9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
10. The Lion King
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. Avengers: Endgame
4. The Lion King
5. Alita: Battle Angel
Other Possibilities:
6. The Aeronauts
7. Gemini Man
8. Ad Astra
9. 1917
10. Godzilla: King of the Monsters
So here’s I have the nominations playing out as far as numbers with each film:
10 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
5 Nominations
Bombshell, Ford v Ferrari, Little Women, Parasite
4 Nominations
Jojo Rabbit, Rocketman, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
The Farewell, Joker
2 Nominations
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, Judy, Toy Story 4
1 Nomination
Ad Astra, Aladdin, Alita: Battle Angel, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, The Cave, Downton Abbey, Harriet, Hustlers, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Les Miserables, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Maiden, Missing Link, Monos, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Report, Weathering with You
The cavalcade of 2019 Disney live-action reimaginings continues next weekend with Maleficent: MistressofEvil. The fantasy adventure is the sequel to 2014’s Maleficent, which focused on the villainous title character from SleepingBeauty. Angelina Jolie returns along with Elle Fanning, Sam Riley, Imelda Staunton, Juno Temple, and Lesley Manville. Newcomers to the fold include Chiwetel Ejiofor, Ed Skrein, and Michelle Pfeiffer. Joachim Rønning (who recently co-directed the Mouse Factory’s PiratesoftheCaribbean: DeadMenTellNoTales) takes over for Robert Stromberg.
When it comes to comps for how Mistress might perform, that’s a tricky calculation. Since the release of part 1 five summers ago, there’s been eight Disney updates of their classic animated material. The last two from this summer (Aladdin and TheLionKing) were massive blockbusters based on beloved 1990s pics. This spring’s Dumbo, on the other hand, premiered with a so-so $45 million.
What about Maleficent itself? It opened just under $70 million with a $241 million eventual domestic haul. Yet five years is a fairly long break between sequels and some of the kiddos who attended could take a pass here. That brings up the example of AliceinWonderland and AliceThroughtheLookingGlass. In 2010, Wonderland was the first significant reimagining in several years. It debuted to $116 million. Six years later, LookingGlass was a huge flop and earned in the mid 20s for its start. For a non Disney example, SnowWhiteandtheHuntsman kicked off with a robust $56 million in 2012. Four years, its follow-up TheHuntsman: Winter’sWar sputtered with a meager $19.4 million.
While I don’t anticipate the drop-off here will be quite as dramatic as the last two scenarios, I do feel Evil will come in markedly lower than its predecessor. I’ll predict low to mid 30s could be the range and that means around half of the bounty from half a decade ago.
Maleficent: MistressofEvil opening weekend prediction: $32.3 million
For my Zombieland: Double Tap prediction, click here:
Sporting a lowly 29% Rotten Tomatoes ranking prior to its October 11 release, Ang Lee’s GeminiMan is certainly no candidate for Best Picture recognition like the director’s previous works CrouchingTiger, HiddenDragon, BrokebackMountain, and LifeofPi. The sci fi action thriller casts Will Smith in an effects heavy experience where the actor plays an aging hitman who must battle a younger version of himself.
While it’s no surprise that the pic won’t contend for top line prizes, Gemini has always been eyed as a possibility for Visual Effects. The 3D high frame per second look is one employed by Lee in his last film BillyLynn’sLongHalftimeWalk. That drama was seen as awards bait before poor reviews sunk its viability.
Visual Effects nowadays is a race where there’s usually no shortage of contenders. In 2019, we have the upcoming StarWars: TheRiseofSkywalker in addition to TheIrishman, TheLionKing, Avengers: Endgame, and Smith’s own summer blockbuster Aladdin. I believe Gemini could still sneak in the category, but its own negative critical reaction might derail it. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Well… this could be one fascinating weekend as three new titles open in the general same money-making range with two holdovers also anticipated to be in that ballpark. We have Sylvester Stallone returning as his #2 signature character in Rambo: LastBlood, Brad Pitt in the sci fi drama AdAstra, and the cinematic rendering of the beloved PBS British period piece program DowntonAbbey. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
If you’d told me even a week ago that I’d be forecasting Abbey to take the #1 spot over Sly and Brad, I probably wouldn’t have believed it. Yet its approximate 3000 plus screen count (higher than I assumed) and the dedication of its fan base has gotten me there.
I have Abbeyever so slightly topping Rambo. As for Astra, I’m a bit skittish about my projection. It’s received solid reviews and Pitt is coming off the blockbuster Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Considering the competition, however, I see it debuting just slightly higher than last fall’s First Man.
That puts Astra in fourth behind the third weekend of It Chapter Two and just ahead of the sophomore outing for Hustlers (which performed fantastically for its start).
Here’s how I have the top five shaking out:
1. Downton Abbey
Predicted Gross: $20.8 million
2. Rambo: Last Blood
Predicted Gross: $20.4 million
3. It Chapter Two
Predicted Gross: $18.9 million
4. Ad Astra
Predicted Gross: $16.9 million
5. Hustlers
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million
Box Office Results (September 13-15)
Despite a terrific start for Hustlers, It Chapter Two managed to stay atop the charts for the second time with $39.6 million. That’s just ahead of my $38.4 million forecast and it’s scared up $152 million thus far.
Jennifer Lopez easily achieved the best premiere of her career (with Oscar buzz attached) as Hustlers made $33.1 million. I was close at $31.5 million. Word-of-mouth and critical appreciation clearly assisted it in reaching that pole position.
Angel Has Fallen was third with $4.4 million (I said $3.4 million) for $60 million overall while Good Boys followed at #4 with $4.2 million (I said $3.2 million). It’s up to $73 million.
The Lion King rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. The Disney smash earned $3.6 million for a tally of $534 million.
This brings us to The Goldfinch. Once an awards hopeful, poor reviews grounded it to an awful eight place showing with $2.6 million. I was more generous with a $5.7 million prediction.
ItChapterTwo looks to stay atop the charts as Hustlers could surprisingly give it a run for its money. We also have John Crowley’s drama TheGoldfinch with Ansel Elgort and Nicole Kidman debuting. Both newbies premiered at the Toronto Film Festival over the weekend to vastly differing results. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Hustlers has been showered with major critical acclaim and reviews suggesting costar Jennifer Lopez could be in line for her first Oscar nomination. I believe it has a legitimate chance at hitting $30 million or over, but I’m putting it just a tad under. We shall see if this gets revised up as buzz continues to build.
TheGoldfinch had the opposite reaction. It looked like Oscar bait (unlike Hustlers), but critics have not been kind. My estimate for it has steadily dwindled down. It should secure third place, but with a quiet start.
Pennywise’s return to the silver screen opened on the lower end of expectations. Our first It chapter dipped 51% in its sophomore frame. I believe the sequel will experience a drop more in the mid 50s range.
And with that, my take on the top five:
1. ItChapterTwo
Predicted Gross: $38.4 million
2. Hustlers
Predicted Gross: $31.5 million
3. TheGoldfinch
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
4. AngelHasFallen
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
5. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
BoxOfficeResults (September6–8)
ItChapterTwo dominated our first autumn movie weekend. The lengthy horror sequel took in $91 million. As mentioned, that is at the lower end of projections and below my take of $109.7 million. The pic still managed to grab the second biggest September haul and #2 overall horror starting gross of all time behind… It (which floated to $123.4 million out of the gate).
AngelHasFallen was second with $5.9 million. My prediction? $5.9 million! Total is $53 million.
GoodBoys took third at $5.4 million (I said $4.9 million) and it stands at a solid $66 million.
TheLionKing was fourth with $4.3 million compared to my $3.8 million estimate for an overall massive tally of $529 million.
Hobbs&Shaw rounded out the top five with $3.8 million, ahead of my $3 million forecast. It’s up to $164 million.
It’s all about It this weekend as the fall box office kicks off and Pennywise returns to terrorize The Losers Club in ItChapterTwo. The Stephen King adapted sequel looks to dominate the marketplace with a potential nine figure debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction post here:
Two years ago on the same post Labor Day frame, It blew away expectations with a massive $123.4 million premiere. Breaking the opening records for September and the horror genre, anticipation is certainly present for the follow up. Reviews aren’t quite as strong this time around and that could mean a slight dip. Yet I’m still going with a starting gross of over $100 million.
No studio bothered to provide direct competition, so the rest of the top 5 will be made up of summer holdovers. None of them should register in the double digits as the demonic clown will be the main attraction.
Here’s how I have the top five playing out:
1. ItChapterTwo
Predicted Gross: $109.7 million
2. AngelHasFallen
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
3. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
4. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
5. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $3 million
BoxOfficeResults (August30–September2)
Before the It arrival, it was a typically quiet Labor Day weekend as AngelHasFallen kept its place atop the charts with a four day gross of $15.3 million, a tad under my $16.1 million estimate. The two week total is $44 million.
GoodBoys remained in second with $12.1 million (I said $13.1 million) for $59 million overall.
The summer season ruler Disney had TheLionKing in third with $9.3 million, on par with my $9.8 million projection for $523 million in the coffers.
Hobbs & Shaw was fourth with $8.4 million compared to my $9.2 million prediction. Tally is $159 million.
Overcomer rounded out the top five at $7.7 million. I went higher with $9 million. The faith based sports drama has earned $19 million.
Finally, the David Oyelowo Blumhouse thriller Don’tLetGo tanked in 15th place with a meager $2.9 million. I was more generous at $4.5 million.
Flying into Telluride this weekend is the hot air balloon adventure TheAeronauts, which reunites TheTheoryofEverything costars Felicity Jones and Eddie Redmayne. The Amazon Studios production comes with high hopes (a reported $80 million budget) and early reviews suggest it’s fast paced and fun entertainment. Tom Harper directs. Earlier this year, he put out the indie country music drama WildRose with an acclaimed performance from Jessie Buckley.
Jones and Redmayne both nabbed Academy nods five years ago for Theory with the latter winning Best Actor. Since then, they’ve moved on to franchise material like RogueOne: AStarWarsStory and the FantasticBeasts pics. Their reunion is highly unlikely to make them return nominees.
If TheAeronauts can factor in anywhere, perhaps it’s Visual Effects. Yet that could be a tall order considering competition that could include heavy hitters such as Avengers: Endgame, TheLionKing, and this December’s StarWars: TheRiseofSkywalker. Production Design and Costume Design might be reachable as well. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
It’s Labor Day weekend as the summer movie season draws to a close. This is typically one of the more unexceptional holiday frames at the box office and 2019 should be no different. Blumhouse is putting out the supernatural thriller Don’tLetGo with David Oyelowo and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
My four-day forecast for $4.5 million for Go takes it well out of top 5 contention. Instead we should see AngelHas Fallen managing a second weekend atop the charts after it rose above expectations, including my own.
GoodBoys should stay put in second. The rest of the top five could get interesting. This past weekend, we saw numbers 3-6 separated by a mere $100k. I expect that to continue here. Worthy of note is that these holdover summer offerings often see an increase in their grosses due to the extra day.
And with that, my take on the top 5 and take note that these are Friday to Monday numbers:
1. AngelHasFallen
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million
2. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
3. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
5. Overcomer
Predicted Gross: $9 million
BoxOfficeResults (August23–25)
As mentioned, action threequel AngelHasFallen exceeded projections with a solid $21.3 million, easily ahead of my $15.2 million forecast. That’s only $300k under predecessor LondonHasFallen, reversing this season’s trend of follow-ups falling short of what came before.
GoodBoys was second with $11.6 million (I said $12.5 million) for a pleasing two week tally of $41 million.
Faith based sports drama Overcomer topped its entire budget in third with $8.1 million, slightly overcoming my $7.4 million prediction.
Hobbs& Shaw was fourth with $8 million, on pace with my guesstimate of $7.9 million. Total is $147 million.
TheLionKing rounded out the high five and also made $8 million (I said $7.5 million) for a massive haul of $510 million.
ReadyorNot debuted in sixth with… $8 million. The acclaimed horror comedy slashed past my $5.8 million estimate. Since its Wednesday rollout, earnings are $11 million and that’s above my $7.7 million projection.
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