The Academy voters have been very tolerant of the Dutch in the 21st century when it comes to the International Feature Film race. Two of their submitted features – 2010’s In a Better World and 2020’s Another Round – won the prize. Six more were nominated: 2006’s After the Wedding, 2012’s A Royal Affair and The Hunt from 2013, A War in 2015, 2016’s Land of Mine, and 2021’s Flee.
Denmark has chosen the black & white historical true crime thriller The Girl with the Needle as their horse for IFF. From director Magnus von Horn, it premiered at Cannes before playing in Toronto. Vic Carmen Sonne and Trine Dyrholm star. Hitting the coasts on December 6th, Needle drew positive fest reactions with 91% on Rotten Tomatoes and 82 on Metacritic.
As I’ve mentioned previously on posts covering submissions in this competition, there are three assumed frontrunners in Emilia Pérez, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, and I’m Still Here. Based on its country’s recent track record, Needle is certainly a possibility to fill one of the other two slots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Uncertainty at the box office persists this weekend as three new titles open in wide release: the faith-based drama I Still Believe, comic book based Vin Diesel action pic Bloodshot, and Blumhouse thriller The Hunt. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Pixar’s Onward should manage a second frame atop the charts. However, a drop of close to 50% could occur and that would mean high teens or low 20s. Of the newcomers, I Still Believe looks poised for runner-up status as its core Christian audience should turn out (similar to 2018’s I Can Only Imagine).
As for Bloodshot and The Hunt, I question whether they can reach double digits and there could be a battle in the 3-5 slots between them and holdover The Invisible Man. The uncertainty I speak of is, of course, due to current events. The Coronavirus impact on the moviegoing public is playing out as we speak and is certainly a factor to consider with estimates.
And with that, my top 5 take:
1. Onward
Predicted Gross: $19.8 million
2. I Still Believe
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million
3. Bloodshot
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million
4. The Invisible Man
Predicted Gross: $8 million
5. The Hunt
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million
Box Office Results (March 6-8)
One doesn’t expect Pixar to have an underwhelming start at multiplexes, but that’s precisely what happened with Onward. Its $39.1 million premiere marks the weakest wide rollout in the studio’s modern era. It’s well under my $54.3 million estimate. Reviews that weren’t as gushing as their other titles may have contributed, in addition to previously mentioned outside factors.
The Invisible Man dropped to second with $15.1 million, a bit under my $17.2 million projection. The two-week total is $52 million against the minor $7 million budget.
Sports drama The Way Back with Ben Affleck opened in third and right in line with expectations with $8.1 million (I said $8.3 million).
Family fare filled the rest of the top 5 as Sonic the Hedgehog was fourth at $7.7 million compared to my $9 million take for $140 million overall. The Call of the Wild was fifth with $6.7 million (I said $7.1 million) for $57 million at press time.
After being pushed back several months due to its violent subject matter, Blumhouse’s thriller The Hunt debuts next weekend. Based loosely on the nearly century old story “The Most Dangerous Game”, the pic comes from director Craig Zobel. The cast includes Betty Gilpin, Ike Barinholtz, Emma Roberts, Hilary Swank, and Justin Hartley.
As is the case with most Blumhouse Productions, this is a low budget venture with a reported price tag of $15 million. Damon Lindelof, creator of Lost, HBO’s Watchmen, and numerous film scripts, has cowriting credit.
The satiric tale was originally scheduled for September of last year before being delayed following the El Paso and Dayton mass shootings. The Friday the 13th reschedule could manage to capitalize on its past publicity, but I question whether it will. I believe The Hunt may not achieve double digits for its start.
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