Improbably based on a true story, the comedy Tag hits theaters next weekend. Based on a 2013 WallStreetJournal article, the film focuses on a group of pals who engage in a long-term version of the kids game. Stars include Ed Helms, Jeremy Renner, Jon Hamm, Jake Johnson, Isla Fisher, Annabelle Wallis, Hannibal Buress, Rashida Jones, Leslie Bibb, Brian Dennehy, and Lil Rel Howery. It marks the directorial debut of Jeff Tomsic.
The ads hype the “actually based on real stuff” angle, but I felt the trailer could’ve been a bit stronger. I’m not confident this holds any significant breakout potential. The Warner Bros release would likely love the achieve the $17 million debut of this spring’s GameNight and that might be the generous ceiling here. I’d say even with the cast of familiar faces, it doesn’t have the relative star power or laugh out loud promo materials. And I wouldn’t count Renner as this isn’t the genre he’s known for… see TheHouse from a year ago.
Outside of the Hangover franchise, Helms has had a rough road recently as FatherFigures was a dud and even his Vacation reboot fell a bit shy of $60 million three summers back. I’ll project this reaches low double digits to mid teens for a so-so showing. As we await the blockbuster comedic pic of this season, I have a hunch Tag is not it.
I’m not sure if I’m “spoiling” anything here, but Jeremy Renner takes a break from franchises and shows up in the final third of TheHouse. Playing a bad guy, the mere fact of his presence is meant to elicit laughter because… well, I’m not entirely sure why. That’s emblematic of the film itself. You have a lot of famous performers (most known for their comedic skills unlike Renner) trapped in a flimsy concept that only manages to wring less than 90 minutes of material. And there certainly isn’t an hour and a half’s worth of funny.
Will Ferrell and Amy Poehler are Scott and Kate Johansen, a middle-class couple about to become empty nesters as their daughter Alex (Ryan Simpkins) is about to enter college. It’s the summer before her exit and her folks are trying to maximize their time with her. They’re a bit of the overprotective type who smother their kid and guilt her into WalkingDead nights instead of visiting her friends. Alex’s higher ed plans take a hit when the Johansens learn a long-planned for scholarship is kaput because a corrupt city councilman (Nick Kroll) would rather spend it on a community pool.
With the need to make some fast money, what’s this seemingly normal couple to do? In this high concept exercise, the answer is teaming with down on his luck divorcee neighbor Frank (Jason Mantzoukas) and opening an illegal casino. The scheme yields dollars but other complications that come with the high roller life. Criminal elements enter the mix and this new job also gives the Johansens a personality transplant into a hard partying couple who start to believe their dangerous notoriety.
Bottom line is that we see Ferrell do his goofy Everyman type turned goofy comedic hard ass. If you find that irresistible, maybe there’s enough to sustain you here. Yet this effort from director Andrew J. Cohen (who co-wrote the much more satisfactory Neighbors) hits its marks with infrequency. Adam McKay is a producer here and he’s done better work with Ferrell. I couldn’t help but wonder if the sometimes sharp political commentary McKay brings to his work would have helped here. I’m pretty sure the script is trying to say something about the plight of the middle class and their earning power, but it’s buried in spurting blood gags and believing Jeremy Renner turning up will work as a gag on its own terms. There’s humorous moments peppered throughout, but nowhere near enough to recommend it.
Bloggers Note (07/19/17): I have revised my number from original post below to $27.3 million as the film’s breakout potential continues to grow.
It’s been a rather rough go for comedies in the summer of 2017 as Snatched, Baywatch, Rough Night, and The House have all performed under expectations. That could change next weekend as Malcolm D. Lee’s Girls Trip may have some breakout potential.
The raunchy comedy, shot for a rather meager $28 million, stars Queen Latifah and Jada Pinkett Smith (reuniting after appearing over 20 years ago together in Set It Off) as well as Regina Hall and Tiffany Haddish. The quarter play a group of friends on vacation together in New Orleans. Larenz Tate, Kate Walsh, and Mike Colter are among the supporting cast.
Early reviews have been quite positive with critics noting it could be a sleeper. They’re probably right. Estimates for Girls Trip have put it around $15-$17 million for the opening weekend, but I expect word-of-mouth will push it around $20 million. That would actually put it above my estimate for Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, which premieres the same day.
Girls Trip opening weekend prediction: $27.3 million
There’s only one new major release this weekend hitting multiplexes, but it’s a big one in the form of Spider-Man: Homecoming. This is the third iteration of the beloved web slinger with Tom Holland inheriting the tights after his cameo in Captain America: Civil War. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Spidey should easily rule the charts this weekend and my prediction puts it a couple million above what the original accomplished 15 years ago.
As for holdovers, Despicable Me 3 had a somewhat disappointing debut (more on that below) and I look for it to lose nearly half its audience in the sophomore frame.
Baby Driver, on the other hand, was quite a breakout hit and word of mouth is strong. Its drop-off shouldn’t be as pronounced. Wonder Woman and Transformers look to round out the top five.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. Spider-Man: Homecoming
Predicted Gross: $117.8 million
2. Despicable Me 3
Predicted Gross: $36.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)
3. Baby Driver
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. Wonder Woman
Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of 37%)
5. Transformers: The Last Knight
Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 58%)
Box Office Results (June 30-July 2)
Illumination Entertainment’s Despicable Me 3 earned an estimated $72.4 million, which easily placed it first. However, this was easily $10 million below most of the lowest guesstimates. I projected a higher haul at $88.7M.
Edgar Wright’s critically acclaimed Baby Driver greatly exceeded expectations with a $20.5 million Friday to Sunday gross and a cool $29.5 million since its Wednesday opening. This blew away my respective predictions of $10.9M and $15.8M and proved that audiences are hungry for programming in the summer that isn’t a sequel or reboot.
Transformers: The Last Knight slipped to third with $16.8 million (in line with my $17.4M forecast) for a $102M total.
Wonder Woman was close behind in fourth with $15.7 million (I said $14.5M) to bring its massive earnings to $346M.
Cars 3 rounded out the top five with $9.6 million (I was higher at $12.1M) for a $120M overall gross.
The poorly reviewed Will Ferrell/Amy Poehler comedy The House was DOA in sixth place, earning only $8.7 million for its start (I said $13.8M).
Finally, Sofia Coppola’s The Beguiled expanded its theater count and took in $3.1 million compared to my $3.8M prediction.
It’s a busy weekend ahead as Despicable Me 3 looks to dominate the box office as the Will Ferrell comedy The House and critically acclaimed musical comedy crime thriller Baby Driver are out as well. There’s also a significant theater expansion for Sofia Coppola’s Civil War dramatic thriller The Beguiled. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all four here:
As I see it, Illumination Entertainment’s Despicable threequel will not reach the heights of its spin-off predecessor Minions, which opened to $115M two summers ago.I’m looking at a return in the high 80s.
The House appears primed for a second place debut (barely) now that Transformers: The Last Knight didn’t fare so well (more on that below). I have a strange suspicion that it could under perform, but it’s got Will Ferrell and is the only real straight up comedy out there so I’m going late teens.
Baby Driver (which rolls out early on Wednesday) could absolutely be a wild card with some breakout potential. It’s got great buzz among the cinephile community, but I’m not sure how much that will translate to robust earnings out of the gate. I have it slated for sixth.
The Beguiled had a terrific limited debut this past weekend and its 550 screen count has me estimating a $3.8M gross.
Holdover action should see a precipitous drop for Transformers with Wonder Woman likely having a smaller decline than Cars 3 considering the animated competition. The Last Knight could even be in danger of slipping to fourth or fifth if holds for the other two aren’t quite as pronounced as my prognoses.
And with that, let’s do a top 6 estimates:
1. Despicable Me 3
Predicted Gross: $88.7 million
2. Transformers: The Last Knight
Predicted Gross: $17.4 million (representing a drop of 61%)
3. Wonder Woman
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million (representing a drop of 42%)
4. TheHouse
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
5. Cars 3
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)
6. Baby Driver
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (Friday to Sunday estimate), $15.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Box Office Results (June 23-25)
Transformers: The Last Knight, the fifth in the decade long franchise, posted the worst stateside numbers for the series thus far. The critically panned pic earned $44.6 million over the traditional Friday to Sunday weekend and $68.4 million since its Wednesday debut. That’s well below my respective estimates of $57.8M and $81.5M. The previous Transformers low belonged to the 2007 original, which made $70 million for its start. Lucky for Paramount, these flicks still are doing solid business overseas.
There was a photo finish for second place as WonderWoman made $24.9 million for the runner-up spot. That’s a bit below my $27.6M projection and the DC title has banked $318 million. Cars3 went from first to third at $24 million and I forecasted more with $30M. The Pixar sequel stands at $98 million.
Shark tale 47 Meters Down held up stronger in its sophomore weekend than I figured. Its $7 million was good for fourth place and I incorrectly had it outside my projected top 5.
The Mummy was fifth with $6 million, under my $7.4M estimate for a $68 million so far. At this point, it looks assured the Tom Cruise pic will not reach $100M domestically and probably earn around $80M.
Finally, Tupac biopic All Eyez on Me had a massive drop in weekend #2, falling to sixth with $5.8 million (I was higher with $8.4M). That’s a 78% plummet and it’s earned $38 million total.
And that does it for now, folks! I’ll be back with next week’s predictions when Spider-Man: Homecoming swings into multiplexes.
Blogger’s Note (06/29): On eve of debut, revising estimate against to $13.8 million
Bloggers’s Note (06/27): Revising estimate to $18.3M from $22.3M
Will Ferrell and Amy Poehler are a married couple who start up an illegal gambling establishment to pay for their daughter’s college in The House next weekend. It’s the directorial debut of Andrew J. Cohen, writer of the Neighbors pics and Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates. Costars include Ryan Simpkins, Jason Mantzoukas, Nick Kroll, and Jeremy Renner.
As far as leading roles go, Ferrell has had a good run lately as Get Hard and Daddy’s Home both debuted in the mid to high 30s range. The former had the benefit of costarring Kevin Hart. The latter benefited from a Christmas release. I don’t see The House reaching those numbers and I see it more likely to be in range (perhaps a bit less) with Ferrell’s The Campaign, which opened to $26 million five summers ago.
Considering its relatively low $40 million reported budget and if it receives decent buzz, this should be a nice size hit for Warner Bros.
The House opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million
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