Now onto SAG! As a friendly reminder, the Screen Actors Guild do not have a Best Picture category in the traditional sense as they instead honor the best ensemble. In other words, pictures with smaller casts have a tougher time making the final cut.
Here’s how I have it shaking out later this week!
Best Film Ensemble
Predicted Nominees:
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
1st Alternate – Minari
2nd Alternate – Nomadland
Best Film Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie
1st Alternate – Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
2nd Alternate – Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Best Film Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman, Mank
1st Alternate – Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
2nd Alternate – Steven Yeun – Minari
Best Film Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
1st Alternate – Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
2nd Alternate – Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Best Film Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
1st Alternate – Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
2nd Alternate – Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
This equates to the following number of nominations for each picture:
4 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Mank
2 Nominations
The Father, One Night in Miami, Pieces of a Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7
1 Nomination
Ammonite, Hillbilly Elegy, Judas and the Black Messiah, Malcolm & Marie, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal
I’ll have my reaction up to the nominations on Thursday!
The biggest Oscar precursor thus far drops their nominations this Wednesday (with SAG following the next day) in a week where the awards picture should become a bit clearer.
Of course, The Hollywood Foreign Press Association has a habit of making some left field picks from time to time. And unlike the Academy, they split their film and lead acting races into Drama and Comedy/Musical.
Every week on the blog, I have been forecasting each Oscar race. However, for the Globes, it’s just one post with my final predictions for what I feel will happen on Wednesday. In every category, I’m also selecting a first and second alternate. We shall see how I do shortly!
P.S. – SAG Predictions are up tomorrow! Let’s get to it…
Best Film Drama
Predicted Nominees:
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
First Alternate – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Second Alternate – The Father
Best Film Director
Predicted Nominees:
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
First Alternate – Florian Zeller, The Father
Second Alternate – Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Best Actress – Drama
Predicted Nominees:
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
First Alternate – Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie
Second Alternate – Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Best Actor – Drama
Predicted Nominees:
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman, Mank
First Alternate – Steven Yeun, Minari
Second Alternate – Tom Hanks, News of the World
Best Film Comedy/Musical
Predicted Nominees:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Emma
Hamilton
Palm Springs
The Prom
First Alternate – On the Rocks
Second Alternate – The Personal History of David Copperfield
Best Actress – Comedy/Musical
Predicted Nominees:
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Cristin Milioti, Palm Springs
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma
First Alternate – Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Second Alternate – Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Best Actor – Comedy/Musical
Predicted Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton
Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Andy Samberg, Palm Springs
First Alternate – Pete Davidson, The King of Staten Island
Second Alternate – James Corden, The Prom
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
First Alternate – Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Second Alternate – Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
First Alternate – Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Second Alternate – Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Film Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
First Alternate – The Father
Second Alternate – Promising Young Woman
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
The Croods: A New Age
Onward
Over the Moon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
First Alternate – The Willoughbys
Second Alternate – Earwig and the Witch
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
Another Round
The Life Ahead
Martin Eden
Minari
Quo Vadis, Aida?
First Alternate – Dear Comrades!
Second Alternate – Beanpole
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul
Tenet
First Alternate – Hillbilly Elegy
Second Alternate – The Midnight Sky
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
“Only the Young” from Miss Americana
“Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon
“Seen” from The Life Ahead
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
First Alternate – “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom
Second Alternate – “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
And that breaks out to the following pictures receiving these numbers for nominations:
6 Nominations
Mank
5 Nominations
One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
3 Nominations
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Hamilton, The Life Ahead, Minari, Palm Springs
2 Nominations
Emma, The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, The Prom, Soul
1 Nomination
Another Round, The Croods: A New Age, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, French Exit, Hillbilly Elegy, Judas and the Black Messiah, Martin Eden, The Mauritanian, Miss Americana, News of the World, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Promising Young Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Sound of Metal, Tenet, Wolfwalkers
I’ll have reaction to the Globe nods up on Wednesday!
It’s taken all of 24 hours for the 2021 Sundance Film Festival to produce a potential awards contender for the next season (as we’re in the midst of the current one). This should be no surprise as the annual Utah event typically produces such hopefuls. Last year, the fest gave us a trio of pics that could end up in the 2020 Best Picture lineup (The Father, Minari, Promising Young Woman).
CODA comes from writer/director Sian Heder and it’s a remake of the 2014 French dramedy La Famille Belier. 18-year-old Emilia Jones stars as the only hearing member of her deaf family that runs a fishing business. Costars include Marlee Matlin, Troy Kotsur, and Eugenio Derbez. The opening night selection of Sundance suggests this is a major crowd pleaser that should have no trouble getting snatched up by a studio or streamer (and probably at a nice price). The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 100% based on 20 reviews.
When it comes to Sundance, it always feels too early that discern whether praise will result in Oscar attention over a year later. That said, early signs here are encouraging and especially for Jones. Critics have deemed this a star making performance and she’s certainly worth keeping an eye on as the long next awards guesstimating period officially kicks off. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
***Update (01/30/21): Apple has acquired CODA for a record setting $25 million. This is the first genuine 2021 hopeful, folks!
The National Board of Review bestowed their end of year honors today and the unpredictable group showed some love for Netflix… just not in the expected way. The NBR named Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods as Best Film along with Lee taking their top filmmaking prize. Bloods, which premiered on Netflix this summer, has been seen as a prospect whose Best Picture chances are questionable. In my rankings, it has risen over recent weeks all the way up to #5.
As for its chances to win, one could legitimately argue the NBR win means it probably won’t (and it probably won’t). In the 21st century, only 4 of the 20 NBR victors took Best Picture at the big show and only one in the past decade (2003’s Mystic River, 2007’s No Country for Old Men, 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2018’s Green Book).
The NBR also names 10 of their other favorite pics and they are: First Cow, The Forty-Year-Old Version, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Minari, News of the World, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Soul, and Sound of Metal. The major surprise here is easily Netflix’s The Midnight Sky from George Clooney. It received very mixed reviews and is not anticipated to play with the Academy except for tech races. The other story here is the omission of three legit Netflix contenders at the Oscars: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. In particular, Chicago is seen as the main competitor to Nomadland for BP winner. That said, only 6 of the 11 NBR pics last year nabbed Oscar attention. Two other notable exclusions from the Board are The Father and One Night in Miami.
In the acting races, Riz Ahmed took Best Actor for Sound of Metal. He’s looked at as a likely Academy contender. Similar to the Picture discussion, only 1 NBR recipient here (Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea) achieved Oscar glory. Carey Mulligan named Best Actress for Promising Young Woman. The Oscar/NBR connection is slightly better as three of the past 10 trophy takers had good fortune with the Academy. The Sound of Metal love continued in Supporting Actor with Paul Raci winning. Like Actress, it’s a 3 out of 10 match in the 2010s. Youn Yuh-jung is NBR’s Supporting Actress choice for Minari. Only 1 of the last 10 victors for the Board won the Oscar (Regina King in 2018’s If Beale Street Could Talk). Minari also took Original Screenplay with News of the World winning Adapted. Soul, the front runner for the Oscar, was named Best Animated Feature.
Bottom line: the NBR can certainly increase exposure for hopefuls, but it’s certainly not a barometer for who wins at the Oscars. Nevertheless it’s a nice day for a Netflix feature that I currently have behind three others from the streamer that weren’t named here.
The American Film Institute will announce their top 10 pictures of the year tomorrow and it’s usually a safe predictor of half or more of the films that will land Best Picture nods at the Oscars. Over the past five years, the magic number has been 7 of the AFI selections getting Oscar love in the big race. That holds true for 2016, 2017, and 2019. In 2015 – it was 6. In 2018- it was 5.
So where do we stand this year? My overall estimates keep the estimated AFI number at 7 for my current Best Picture hopefuls (which could and probably will change). It is worth noting that for the previous two years, there’s a bit of an asterisk. Being that it’s the American Film Institute, foreign selections are ineligible. Due to this, surefire Oscar contenders Roma and Parasite didn’t qualify. This would apply in 2020 to The Father which is a British production.
As for the matches, they are as follows: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, and The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Now for the differences. AFI has shown a Disney love recently that the Academy did not share. AFI nominated Inside Out, Zootopia, and Mary Poppins Returns over the last five years with Oscar not following suit. Therefore I’m saying Pixar’s Soul makes the AFI cut.
The other two are critical favorites that (at press time) I have just missing Oscar’s cut: Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal. This means the three pics I have getting Oscar’s attention and not from AFI are Da 5 Bloods, The Father, and Judas and the Black Messiah.
What else could surprise? I would not be shocked to see Borat Subsequent Moviefilm make AFI’s list. If they don’t choose that comedy, there’s a lesser chance that Palm Springs could show up. AFI has also selected some blockbusters that Oscar ignored as of late. Examples include Knives Out, A Quiet Place, Wonder Woman, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. However, due to COVID in 2020, there’s just not a huge list of those types of contenders. Could Tenet sneak in? Doubtful.
Others that could be sleepers are First Cow, Pieces of a Woman, Malcolm & Marie, and Hillbilly Elegy, but here’s my take on what AFI does tomorrow:
My latest round of Oscar estimates keeps my predicted number of Best Picture nominees at the full 10 – with a change. It’s News of the World back in and Promising Young Woman on the outside looking in.
In the other major categories, my picks remain the same with some movement in the rankings. Most notably, in the Supporting Actress field, I am putting Amanda Seyfried’s work in Mank back at #1 over Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy.
You can read all the developments below and I’ll be back at it next weekend!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
8. The Father (PR: 8)
9. Minari (PR: 7)
10. News of the World (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
12. Sound of Metal (PR: 13)
13. Soul (PR: 12)
14. First Cow (PR: 14)
15. Malcolm & Marie (PR: 15)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)
7. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
9. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
10. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
5. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 9)
7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
8. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
9. John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie (PR: 10)
10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
5. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 6)
7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 9)
8. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
9. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 2)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 8)
8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 7)
9. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 4)
3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 2)
4. Minari (PR: 3)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
7. Soul (PR: 6)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
9. Malcolm & Marie (PR: 8)
10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 4)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
8. The White Tiger (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. French Exit (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 7)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
8. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 8)
9. Demon Slayer (PR: 10)
10. Trolls World Tour (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mitchells vs. the Machines (formerly Connected)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 3)
2. Time (PR: 1)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 4)
4. The Dissident (PR: 2)
5. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Boys State (PR: 6)
7. Collective (PR: 7)
8. Crip Camp (PR: 8)
9. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 9)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
4. A Sun (PR: 6)
5. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dear Comrades! (PR: 5)
7. Collective (PR: 4)
8. My Little Sister (PR: 8)
9. Two of Us (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Never Gonna Snow Again
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
8. Minari (PR: 7)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Malcolm & Marie
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 4)
4. Mulan (PR: 3)
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 5)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
9. The Glorias (PR: 9)
10. Ammonite (PR: 8)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. Tenet (PR: 9)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 6)
4. Mank (PR: 3)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 8)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
8. Pinocchio (PR: 5)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
10. Emma (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
5. Minari (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 8)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)
9. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 9)
10. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Wear Your Crown” from The Prom
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 5)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Tenet (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 3)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 6)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
7. Soul (PR: 5)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
10. Greyhound (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 4)
4. Greyhound (PR: 5)
5. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 3)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 6)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
9. Mank (PR: 8)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)
And that equates to the following films garnering these numbers for nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
5 Nominations
News of the World
4 Nominations
Minari, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, Sound of Metal, Tenet
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Soul
1 Nomination
Another Round, Birds of Prey, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, First Cow, Greyhound, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, Malcolm & Marie, Mulan, Night of the Kings, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984
In the 2020 Oscar season that is spilling over to January and February of 2021, Netflix has an abundance of serious contenders in the major races. That includes everything from The Trial of the Chicago 7 to Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom to Da 5 Bloods to Mank to name just four. On January 22nd, Ramin Bahrani’s The White Tiger debuts on the streaming service. Will it be added to the lengthy list of contenders?
I have doubts with the exception of one category. Based on the 2008 novel by Aravind Adiga, the rags to riches drama set in India stars Adarsh Gourav, Priyanka Chopra Jones, and Rajkummar Rao. Reviews are stellar and it currently sports an 88% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. However, Netflix would need to mount a major push for Picture, Directing, or any acting slots and their attention may simply be elsewhere with entities that could potentially win.
The possible exception is Adapted Screenplay. The conventional wisdom is that four slots are filled with Nomadland, One Night in Miami, The Father, and Ma Rainey. For the last couple of weeks, I have put First Cow (which is doing well on the critics awards circuit) in spot #5. Netflix’s own I’m Thinking of Ending Things has a shot as does News of the World. Yet it’s not unrealistic that The White Tiger could sneak in as a surprise pick to round out the competition.
Bottom line: it’s more feasible that Tiger comes up empty-handed on nominations morning, but it could achieve one mention. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
For the past several years, the magic number has traditionally been nine when it comes to Best Picture nominees. It can fluctuate anywhere between 5 and 10 according to the rules, unlike every other category. This changes to a finite 10 starting in 2022. And since August when I began these (mostly) weekly estimates, I’ve kept it at 9.
However, I am expanding it to ten this week as I believe Judas and the Black Messiah could easily make the cut and I just couldn’t take any of the other nine films out. Obviously this may change as we move closer to nomination morning, but that’s where I stand today.
In the major categories, other changes are Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) entering the Best Director mix for the first time and that takes out George C. Wolfe for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. In Supporting Actor, I have yet again switched the 5 spot with Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) in and Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7) out.
Zendaya’s work in Malcolm & Marie goes from unranked status all the way to #5 and this displaces Andra Day for The United States vs. Billie Holiday.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
7. Minari (PR: 5)
8. The Father (PR: 7)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
11. News of the World (PR: 11)
12. Soul (PR: 13)
13. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
14. First Cow (PR: 14)
15. Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 6)
8. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
9. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Zendaya, Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)
8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
9. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 8)
10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Robin Wright, Land
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 8)
8. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 9)
10. John David Washington, Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)
5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 8)
8. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
9. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 6)
10. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)
8. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
9. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
3. Minari (PR: 4)
4. Mank (PR: 2)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
8. Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Forty-Year-Old Version
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
4. The Father (PR: 2)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 7)
8. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. French Exit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Emma
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 7)
8. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: 8)
9. Connected (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Bombay Rose
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Time (PR: 2)
2. The Dissident (PR: 4)
3. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
4. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
5. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Boys State (PR: 5)
7. Collective (PR: 9)
8. Crip Camp (PR: 7)
9. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 8)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
4. Collective (PR: 7)
5. Dear Comrades! (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Sun (PR: 5)
7. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 4)
8. My Little Sister (PR: 6)
9. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 9)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. Nomadland (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. Minari (PR: 7)
8. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. Malcolm & Marie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Mulan (PR: 5)
4. Emma (PR: 3)
5. News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 6)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
8. Ammonite (PR: 10)
9. The Glorias (PR: 9)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
7. News of the World (PR: 5)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
9. Tenet (PR: 10)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 6)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
5. Pinocchio (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
8. Mulan (PR: 8)
9. Emma (PR: 10)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
News of the World
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Minari (PR: 4)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
7. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
8. Tenet (PR: 6)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 7)
8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 9)
9. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 10)
10. “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 7)
5. Emma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)
9. Tenet (PR: 8)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
5. Soul (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 7)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. Greyhound (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 4)
4. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
5. Greyhound (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
8. Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Dolittle
And that equates to the following pictures garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
4 Nominations
Minari, News of the World, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah, Mulan, Promising Young Woman, Soul, Sound of Metal
2 Nominations
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, The Midnight Sky, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Tenet
1 Nomination
Another Round, Birds of Prey, Collective, Dear Comrades!, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, First Cow, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, Malcolm & Marie, Night of the Kings, Onward, Pinocchio, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
I continue with my Oscar Watch posts for pictures sending screeners late in the season and we arrive at one with real potential – Shaka King’s Judas and the Black Messiah. The Warner Bros production hits theaters and HBO Max simultaneously on February 12. It stars Lakeith Stanfield as an undercover FBI informant tasked to take down Black Panther head Fred Hampton (Daniel Kaluuya).
While the review embargo is still intact, social media reactions are available today. They point to a feeling many had when the first trailer debuted months ago in that Judas could nab several nominations come Oscar morning. In particular, Kaluuya’s performance (being campaigned for in Supporting Actor) is being highly praised. This would be his second nomination behind his lead work in 2017’s Get Out. His inclusion in the supporting field appears not only likely, but he could win. I could foresee a narrative in which Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) and Kaluuya vie for the prize and this storyline could play out until April.
Stanfield is in the Best Actor mix, but his final five status is much more questionable. Like Best Actress in 2020, lead actor may already have four performances that are “in”. That would be Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), and Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods). The fifth slot could be a toss-up between several performers including Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Gary Oldman (Mank), and Steven Yeun (Minari). Today’s buzz suggests adding Stanfield to that list is warranted.
Same goes for Supporting Actress with Dominique Fishback as several posts are highlighting her work. This year’s lineup appears in flux and there’s room for last minute surprises in that particular field. She will be one to keep an eye on.
As for Best Picture, Judas has been kept out of my predicted nine until word of mouth was available. When my estimates are updated on Thursday, it could well make its initial appearance. King’s direction is also on the table for final five status. Several down the line races are possible including Cinematography (also being mentioned a lot), Editing, Production Design, and Original Song (with a composition by H.E.R.). Warner Bros seems to know it has a real hopeful on its hands as this has been added to the Sundance schedule later this month.
Bottom line: the social media reaction indicates critics aren’t betrayed by Judas and it has officially announced its way into Academy consideration. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
My initial 2021 Oscar predictions for the films released in 2020 (and January and February of this year) have arrived! And the new year’s estimates brings the first change in my nine Best Picture nominees in many weeks. Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman now joins the group and that leaves out News of the World.
In Best Director, I have George C. Wolfe now in for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and that drops Lee Isaac Chung for Minari. Another change is in Supporting Actor with Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7) back in the final five over Sound of Metal‘s Paul Raci. In Original Screenplay, Da 5 Bloods makes it back ahead of Soul.
You can read all the movement below! Happy New Year and I’ll be back at it next week…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. Minari (PR: 5)
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
7. The Father (PR: 6)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
9. Promising Young Woman (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
10. Sound of Metal (PR: 12)
11. News of the World (PR: 9)
12. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
13. Soul (PR: 13)
14. First Cow (PR: 15)
15. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 14)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 4)
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
8. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
9. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
10. Darius Marder, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)
8. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 9)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 8)
10. Robin Wright, Land (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
5. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
8. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
9. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round (PR: 8)
10. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 6)
7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 7)
8. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 10)
9. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
10. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 3)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 9)
9. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Promising Young Woman (PR: 4)
4. Minari (PR: 3)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul (PR: 5)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah(PR: 8)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 7)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. The Father (PR: 2)
3. One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. First Cow (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 6)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
10. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mauritanian
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
7. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 7)
8. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Demon Slayer (PR: 9)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Connected
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Time (PR: 2)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 3)
4. The Dissident (PR: 4)
5. Boys State (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Crip Camp (PR: 7)
8. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: 9)
9. Collective (PR: 8)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 6)
4. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 3)
5. A Sun (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
7. Collective (PR: 5)
8. Dear Comrades! (PR: 7)
9. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
10. Notturno (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 5)
7. Minari (PR: 6)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)
7. News of the World (PR: 6)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. The Glorias (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 4)
4. The Father (PR: 3)
5. News of the World (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
10. Tenet (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
5. Pinocchio (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: 6)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 5)
8. Mulan (PR: 7)
9. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Emma (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 4)
4. Minari (PR: 5)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 8)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 3)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 6)
7. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 8)
8. “Poverty Porn” from The Forty-Year-Old Version (PR: 7)
9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
10. “The Wuhan Flu” from Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Free” from The One and Only Ivan
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
3. Mulan (PR: 2)
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)
5. Emma (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 9)
8. Tenet (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sound of Metal (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. Soul (PR: 7)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 5)
8. Greyhound (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Prom (PR: 9)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Da 5 Bloods
Mulan
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 6)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
8. Greyhound (PR: 9)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 10)
10. Dolittle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mank
And that equates to the following numbers in nominations for films:
11 Nominations
Mank
9 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods
4 Nominations
Minari, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, News of the World, Promising Young Woman, Soul
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Emma, Judas and the Black Messiah, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Earwig and the Witch, First Cow, I’m No Longer Here, The Invisible Man, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, Night of the Kings, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Pinocchio, Quo Vadis, Aida?, A Sun, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 