Tag: The End of Oak Street

99th Academy Awards Predictions: October 12th Edition

In the two weeks that have gone by since my last update, the New York and London Film Festivals have given us our first looks at Behemoth!, Artificial, Wildwood, and Ray Gunn. We also had the dismal box office openings and mixed critical reaction for Digger and The Social Reckoning.

So what’s the verdict? Artificial has moved up in my estimation, especially for Andrew Garfield in Supporting Actor where it was recently confirmed he would be placed. Behemoth!, despite some decent buzz, falls out of Best Picture with Elsinore jumping into the BP ten for the first time. The Elsinore bump extends to Andrew Scott who rises to #1 in Best Actor.

Wildwood solidifies itself as the Animated Feature frontrunner with Ray Gunn probably faring well enough to make the quintet of nominees (though not a threat to win).

The Social Reckoning is likely DOA. Digger is more complicated. Yes, the reviews were decidedly all over the place. Yet the actors branch may choose to reward Tom Cruise for his work and, frankly, for taking a giant creative swing. He had moved out of my Best Actor quintet several weeks ago, but now he’s back in at the expense of Robert Pattinson (Primetime).

You can read all the movement below and my next update will be in approximately two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+2)

6. The Debut (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Invite (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Obsession (PR: 9) (+1)

9. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Elsinore (PR: 14) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

11. I Play Rocky (PR: 11) (E)

12. Fjord (PR: 12) (E)

13. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Possible Love (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Behemoth!

Digger

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tony Gilroy, Behemoth!

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (E)

5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 2) (+1)

2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)

3. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 5) (E)

5. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)

3. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guitarradelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)

7. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 6) (-4)

10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)

4. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tender Loving Care (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

8. I Play Rocky (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Digger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Behemoth!

Club Kid

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Being Heumann (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ink (PR: 8) (E)

9. Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Social Reckoning

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)

3. Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Possible Love (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Fatherland (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Woman Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Coward (PR: 9) (E)

10. Everytime (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Iron Boy (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (E)

7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Hoppers (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Minions & Monsters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

In Waves

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. NAZA (PR: 1) (E)

2. You Can See Everything (PR: 2) (E)

3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Doctor (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. One in a Million (PR: 5) (-1)

7. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 7) (E)

8. When a Witness Recants (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The History of Concrete (PR: 9) (E)

10. 14th (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Nuisance Bear

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Debut (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Being Heumann (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. I Play Rocky (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-3)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Michael

The Invite

Digger

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 6) (E)

7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)

8. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Behemoth!

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Michael (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Digger (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)

7. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (-4)

10. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Primetime

Digger

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wicker (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Clayface (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Rose (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Bride! (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Black Ball (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wildwood (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Debut (PR: 8) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Digger

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Didn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 4) (E)

5. “How to Write A Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “The Better Part of Bravery” from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 6) (-3)

10. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Too Muck to Ask” from Ray Gunn

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Digger (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Backrooms (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Werwulf (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+4)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 6) (E)

7. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Debut

Werwulf

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Whalefall (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Sheep Detectives

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

15 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

7 Nominations

Dune: Part Three, Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

All of a Sudden, The Debut, The Invite

3 Nominations

Digger, Elsinore, Obsession

2 Nominations

Artificial, Disclosure Day, Fjord, Michael, Toy Story 5, Wildwood

1 Nomination

American Doctor, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Fatherland, Godzilla Minus Zero, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rehearsals for a Revolution, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Werwulf, Wicker, You Can See Everything

Oscar Predictions: Verity

Based on the bestseller by Colleen Hoover, psychological thriller Verity looks to top the box office this weekend over Tom Cruise’s Digger. All signs are indicating that it will. Michael Showalter directs with Anne Hathaway, Dakota Johnson, and Josh Hartnett headlining.

While it may double the opening performance of Cruise and company (that’s what I’m projecting), reviews for both features are not great. Verity is at 47% on Rotten Tomatoes with 44 on Metacritic (Digger currently has the exact same MC score).

This is Hathaway’s fifth theatrical release of 2026. The Odyssey gives her a great opportunity for a second Supporting Actress try and possible win 14 years after her podium trip for Les Miserables. The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Mother Mary are both possibilities for Costume Design while The End of Oak Street hopes to get in for Visual Effects. Verity is the only Hathaway flick that appears to have no chance at awards consideration. To be fair, Amazon MGM didn’t make it for that and my Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

99th Academy Awards Predictions: September 27th Edition

We are now officially in the autumn phase of Oscar predicting mode. The New York Film Festival has just started where we will get our first reviews and official WOM for Behemoth! and Artificial, among others. Venice, Telluride, and Toronto have wrapped with the latter bestowing its Oscar bellwether People’s Choice Award to The Black Ball. In my view, that helps solidify what I’ve been projecting for months that Ball is a legit threat to The Odyssey for Best Picture. There’s a reason I’ve had them 1-2 for quite some time.

The London Film Festival is also around the corner and it’s notable for the premiere of Wildwood and Ray Gunn, two titles that could majorly shake up the Best Animated Feature competition.

Review embargoes will also lift in the coming days for Digger and The Social Reckoning. I’m skeptical about both regarding their awards viability in the highest profile races but the picture will become far clearer by the next update.

The fall season also means I’m condensing my picks and possibilities in the major categories. Best Picture is being whittled from 25 to 15 with the directing and acting derbies going from 15 to 10 hopefuls. That’s why the list of movies, filmmakers, and thespians dropping out below is extensive.

You can read all the movement below and my next update will arrive in a couple weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)

6. The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Obsession (PR: 8) (-1)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. I Play Rocky (PR: 16) (+5)

12. Fjord (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Possible Love (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Elsinore (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Digger (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Michael

Ink

Club Kid

You Can See Everything

The Social Reckoning

Werwulf

Being Heumann

Primetime

Josephine

Sense and Sensibility

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: 12) (+2)

Dropped Out:

Cristian Mungiu, Fjord

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

Curry Barker, Obsession

Danny Boyle, Ink

Robert Eggers, Werwulf

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (E)

5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster

Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

Mason Reeves, Josephine

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 2) (E)

3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)

5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

Seth Rogen, The Invite

Andrew Garfield, Artificial

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

Jordan Firstman, Club Kid

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)

3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

Sandra Hüller, Digger

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma

Eva Victor, Behemoth!

Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (-1)

4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 11) (+1)

Dropped Out:

John Goodman, Digger

Skyler Gisondo, Primetime

Riz Ahmed, Digger

Channing Tatum, Josephine

Tom Holland, The Odyssey

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Tender Loving Care (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Possible Love (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Club Kid (PR: 5) (-3)

9. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Elsinore

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ink (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. Primetime (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)

3. Possible Love (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Everytime (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Coward (PR: 9) (E)

10. Woman Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Silent Friend

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hoppers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (+1)

9. In Waves (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. NAZA (PR: 1) (E)

2. You Can See Everything (PR: 2) (E)

3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Doctor (PR: 4) (E)

5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. 14th (PR: 6) (E)

7. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The History of Concrete (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nuisance Bear (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Closure

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Being Heumann (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Michael (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

9. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

All of a Sudden

Fjord

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Digger (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)

9. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Digger (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mother Mary

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Debut (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)

9. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

You Can See Everything

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Clayface (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wicker (PR: 5) (-3)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Bride! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Elsinore

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Debut (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Werwulf

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (+1)

2. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 1) (-2)

4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 4) (E)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 6) (E)

7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Too Much to Ask” from Ray Gunn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Save the Day” from Hoppers

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Backrooms (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wild Horse Nine

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Debut (PR: 9) (E)

10. Werwulf (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Digger

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 8) (+5)

4. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)

7. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (E)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10 (E)

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

16 Nominations

The Odyssey

10 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

7 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

All of a Sudden, The Debut, Dune: Part Three, The Invite

5 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

Digger, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

American Doctor, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Clayface, Fatherland, Fjord, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Iron Boy, Michael, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Tender Loving Care, Wildwood, You Can See Everything

Verity Box Office Prediction

The onslaught of 2026 Anne Hathaway movies continues with Verity, based on the novel by It Ends with Us author Colleen Hoover. Out October 2nd, Dakota Johnson and Josh Hartnett costar in the psychological thriller directed by Michael Showalter.

Originally slated for May, this becomes Hathaway’s fifth pic of the year behind Mother Mary, The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Odyssey, and The End of Oak Street. As far as opening weekends, it could land right in the middle and certainly behind Prada and Odyssey. It might also fall a tad behind Oak‘s $21 million premiere.

Hoover’s built-in audience should mean a decent female turnout. While I don’t see this approaching the $50 million that It Ends with Us scored out of the gate, a start in the mid 20s seems doable. That could put it in a close race for #1 with Tom Cruise’s Digger (Hathaway will team up with Cruise for summer 2028’s Days of Thunder 2).

Verity opening weekend prediction: $25.4 million

For my Digger prediction, click here:

Digger Box Office Prediction

99th Academy Awards Predictions: September 14th Edition

I did my last Oscar predictions update as August closed out and a lot has occurred since then. The Venice and Telluride Film Festivals have come and gone and Toronto’s is ongoing. We have buzz, reviews, and WOM on plenty more movies. You can peruse my blog for detailed posts on them.

So what’s changed and what’s changed the same? Let’s start with the same. The Odyssey and The Black Ball are still 1-2 in BP while Wild Horse Nine and The Debut have risen after their festival debuts. Yet there’s only a single newcomer in BP and it’s from a foreign feature that premiered months ago at Cannes. I’m swapping in All of a Sudden for Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or at that French fest back in May).

In Other Possibilities in Best Picture, You Can See Everything pops up in 19th. At Telluride, it was a project no one knew existed and the documentary focused on Nathan Fielder’s dealings with Elizabeth Holmes sits at #2 in Doc Feature behind new #1 NAZA. That doc received the longest recorded standing ovation in Venice history. Everything has a teaser that has already inspired countless memes.

In Best Actress, I already had Julianne Moore (The Debut) in 1st place but its unveiling certainly solidifies it. Same goes for her costar in Paul Giamatti in Supporting Actor.

John Malkovich rises to 1st in Best Actor for Wild Horse Nine with Elsinore‘s Andrew Scott on his heels and Matt Damon (The Odyssey) dropping from 1st to 3rd.

The All of a Sudden momentum benefits Virginie Efira in Best Actress. She joins the projected quintet with Renate Reinsve (Fjord) on the outside looking in. Efira’s costar Tao Okamoto rises in Supporting Actress as does Samantha Morton (The Odyssey) with Mariana di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine) and Olivia Colman (Elsinore) dropping.

You can read all the movement below. I’ll note that The Odyssey is back up to 16 nominations which ties it with Sinners for the all-time record. My next update is coming in two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Invite (PR: 7) (E)

8. Obsession (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 13) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Fjord (PR: 6) (-5)

12. Digger (PR: 12) (E)

13. Michael (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Elsinore (PR: 14) (-1)

16. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

17. Ink (PR: 11) (-6)

18. Club Kid (PR: 24) (+6)

19. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

20. The Social Reckoning (PR: 17) (-3)

21. Werwulf (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-2)

23. Primetime (PR: 16) (-7)

24. Josephine (PR: 22) (-2)

25. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 18) (-7)

Dropped Out:

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Disclosure Day

A Long Winter

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 13) (E)

14. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Lance Oppenheim, Primetime

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 8) (-2)

11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jack O’Connell, Ink

Dominic Sessa, Tony

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)

3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Claire Foy, Ink

Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+7)

8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (E)

10. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (E)

11. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Skyler Gisondo, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Club Kid (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tender Loving Care (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Digger (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Elsinore (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

The Drama

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Ink (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Primetime (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Possible Love (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Minotaur (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose (PR: 7) (E)

8. Woman Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Coward (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Silent Friend (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Mimesis

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tangles (PR: 4) (E)

5. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hoppers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (-1)

8. In Waves (PR: 8) (E)

9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (E)

10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hexed

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. NAZA (PR: 3) (+2)

2. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (-2)

4. American Doctor (PR: 2) (-2)

5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. 14th (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 10) (+3)

8. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Nuisance Bear (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Closure (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The History of Concrete

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Debut (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)

8. All of a Sudden (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Invite

Elsinore

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Digger (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensbility (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Werwulf (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (E)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)

10. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ink

Fjord

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Wicker (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Clayface (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. Rose (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Obsession

Is God Is

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Social Reckoning

Wildwood

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 4) (+3)

2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (-2)

4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Wildwood

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Backrooms (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Whalefall

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Whalefall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

16 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

8 Nominations

The Debut

6 Nominations

The Invite, Wild Horse Nine

5 Nominations

All of a Sudden, Dune: Part Three

4 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Obsession

2 Nominations

Digger, Fjord, Michael, Toy Story 5, Werwulf

1 Nomination

American Doctor, Backrooms, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Club Kid, Disclosure Day, Ink, Elsinore, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man Brand New Day, Tangles, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood, You Can See Everything

August 28-30 Box Office Predictions

August at the box office should close out like July did with Spider-Man: Brand New Day ruling the charts. Coyote vs. Acme, the live-action/animated hybrid with a bumpy journey to theaters and Ridley Scott’s post-apocalyptic drama The Dog Stars are the fresh challengers to the throne and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Coyote vs. Acme Box Office Prediction
The Dog Stars Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros axed Coyote as a tax write-off as the Looney Tunes tale (shot in 2022) finally was picked up by Ketchup Entertainment. They hope to squeeze an opening weekend in the high teens though my low teens projection could mean third place.

That’s because the MCU’s Spidey adventure should see a fifth weekend in 1st with a drop in the low to mid 40s. The Odyssey could rise from third to second as Insidious: Out of the Further could see a sophomore frame plummet in the 60% range.

I’m putting Further in a close race with The Dog Stars for fourth place as I don’t see the latter finding much of an audience.

Here’s how I see the top five shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $23.2 million

2. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $15.6 million

3. Coyote vs. Acme

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

4. Insidious: Out of the Further

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

5. The Dog Stars

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

Box Office Results (August 21-23)

The sixth entry of the Insidious horror franchise was no match for Tom Holland as Brand New Day spent a fourth weekend as the champ. Spidey took in $39 million, just ahead of my $38 million prediction for $854 million total. This week it will become the second highest grossing domestic feature in history (unadjusted for inflation) behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936 million).

Insidious: Out of the Further settled for second with $25.1 million, under my $29.7 million call. While its numbers are just fine considering the reported $18 million budget, it did not match the $33 million that predecessor The Red Door opened to in 2023.

The Odyssey was third with $19.7 million compared to my $17.1 million take as the epic adventure has amassed $539 million in six weeks. It has now surpassed The Dark Knight ($534 million) to become Christopher Nolan’s largest stateside earner.

PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie was fourth in weekend #2 with $9.1 million, in line with my $9.6 million forecast. The animated sequel stands at $35 million.

The End of Oak Street, another dino movie, rounded out the top five with $8.7 million (I said $8.2 million) for $37 million after two weeks.

Jason Statham’s Mutiny was sixth with $7.7 million as the star’s latest action thriller premiered close to my $7.7 million projection.

Tony, focused on a formative summer in the life of Anthony Bourdain, expanded nationwide and was seventh with $5 million compared to my $6 million prediction. The overall tally is $6.6 million.

Finally, comedy Spa Weekend fizzled in ninth with $3 million though that is ahead of my $2.3 million prognosis.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 21-23 Box Office Predictions

For the first time in several weeks, we could have a competition for the #1 spot with Insidious: Out of the Further potentially challenging Spider-Man: Brand New Day‘s fourth frame at the box office. We also have Mutiny with Jason Statham hoping to land in the top five. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Insidious: Out of the Further Box Office Prediction
Mutiny Box Office Prediction

The sixth entry in a 13-year-old steady horror franchise, Further could scare up the mid 30s or higher in a best case scenario. If so, Spidey could be prevented from a fourth weekend atop the charts. Yet my near $30 million projection should put it in the runner-spot assuming Tom Holland’s hero sees a decline in the mid 40s to 50% range.

Mutiny could make $10 million or so if it hits the top end of its range, but my estimate would put it in sixth. I didn’t do individual posts predicting the opening grosses for Spa Weekend (a comedy with Leslie Mann and Isla Fisher) or the nationwide expansion of Anthony Bourdain early years biopic Tony. I don’t figure either will place higher than 6th. I’ll say $6 million for Tony and just $2.3 million for Spa.

The Odyssey should drop to 3rd after three weeks in 2nd in the high teens with PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie and dino movie The End of Oak Street in 4th and 5th. As for the latter, it may suffer a significant decline considering the meh B Cinemascore grade.

Here’s how I have the top 6 shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $38 million

2. Insidious: Out of the Further

Predicted Gross: $29.7 million

3. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million

4. PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

5. The End of Oak Street

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

6. Mutiny

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

Box Office Results (August 14-16)

Spider-Man: Brand New Day achieved the second best third outing at domestic multiplexes ever with $70.7 million, swinging beyond my $60.2 million call. That’s well behind the $90 million third weekend for Star Wars: The Force Awakens and just in front of Avatar‘s $68 million. The MCU’s return to dominance stands at $786 million stateside thus far.

The Odyssey, despite serious competition, held in second with $23.6 million and ahead of my $21 million prediction. The epic tale grew to $505 million after five weeks.

David Robert Mitchell’s The End of Oak Street with Anne Hathaway and lots of CG prehistoric creatures had a softish landing in third with $21 million, easily under my $31.1 million take. As mentioned, so-so word-of-mouth might cause faster extinction in theaters.

PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie was fourth with $20.2 million, a tad below predecessor The Mighty Movie though ahead of my $18.7 million projection.

Katseye: Wild Hearts was fifth with $3.9 million. It admittedly was not on my radar and I didn’t do a prediction post for the documentary about the L.A. based pop group.

Finally, The Brink of War from Angel Studios faltered in seventh with $2.6 million (I said $4.5 million). Older audiences didn’t turn up for the drama about Reagan and Gorbachev’s 1986 summit in Iceland.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

99th Academy Awards Predictions: August 16th Edition

It goes without saying that the upcoming festivals will dramatically reshape the 99th Academy Awards. That’s in addition to numerous fall titles that will premiere beyond the late summer/early autumn festival slots.

There’s also the real chance that Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey could dominate the next ceremony. It has critical and audience love and fantastic box office grosses. Even though Nolan took over the 96th Oscars with Oppenheimer, history could repeat itself. I have it ranked #1 in a whopping 10 races. The Odyssey has held that perch in Picture and Director for a while. Yet for the first time, Matt Damon moves to the pole position in Best Actor with John Leguizamo making his inaugural appearance in the Supporting Actor quintet. My nomination count for Nolan’s epic grows from 14 to 16 and that ties it with last year’s Sinners for most mentions in the Academy’s history.

Another major development in Best Actor is Robert Pattinson (Primetime) moving into the high five with Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!) dipping out. In Supporting Actress, Olivia Colman (Elsinore) is in over Sandra Hüller (Project Hail Mary). Leguizamo’s aforementioned rise in Supporting Actor drops Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine).

Finally, I’m condensing the screenplay derbies from 15 possibilities to 10. You can read all the movement below and expect one final update in two weeks before the madness we call Venice, Telluride, and Toronto begins!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Debut (PR: 5) (E)

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Invite (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Obsession (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Digger (PR: 11) (E)

12. Ink (PR: 13) (+1)

13. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (-1)

14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 14) (E)

15. Michael (PR: 17) (+2)

16. Elsinore (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 16) (-1)

18. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

19. Fatherland (PR: 19) (E)

20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 18) (-2)

21. Werwulf (PR: 20) (-1)

22. Being Heumann (PR: 21) (-1)

23. Artificial (PR: 24) (+1)

24. Disclosure Day (PR: 22) (-2)

25. Josephine (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

I Play Rocky

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 12) (E)

13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)

14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 14) (E)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+2)

2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (E)

11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Garfield, Artificial

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)

7. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (E)

5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. Obsession (PR: 4) (E)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Elsinore (PR: 7) (E)

8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)

9. Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Artificial (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Drama

Fatherland

I Play Rocky

Josephine

Misty Green

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Invite (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+1)

Dropped Out:

Being Heumann

Prima Facie

A Long Winter

Minotaur

Wildwood

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)

3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)

4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Possible Love (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rose (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Coward (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Mimesis (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Beloved (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Hoppers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. In Waves (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)

2. American Doctor (PR: 5) (+3)

3. 14th (PR: 2) (-1)

4. One in a Million (PR: 3) (-1)

5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. When a Witness Recants (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The History of Concrete (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Musk (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Closure

Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. White Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Fjord (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Being Heumann (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Werwulf (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Ink

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Werwulf (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)

Best Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Debut (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Fjord

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Digger (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Clayface (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicker (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Rose (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Is God Is (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Bride!

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)

8. Digger (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ink (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)

2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E) – previously listed as TBD

3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+2)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-4)

8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)

9. TBD from Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Whalefall (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 8) (E)

9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

16 Nominations

The Odyssey

11 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

8 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

The Debut, Dune: Part Three

5 Nominations

Fjord, The Invite

4 Nominations

Behemoth!, Michael

3 Nominations

Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, Digger, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Forgotten Island, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wildwood

Oscar Predictions: The End of Oak Street

Dinosaurs inhabit 1980s suburbia in David Robert Mitchell’s The End of Oak Street, out this Friday. The sci-fi adventure from the maker of critically acclaimed horror flick It Follows is the rare tale of prehistoric creatures terrorizing humans that doesn’t have the word Jurassic in front of it. Anne Hathaway and Ewan McGregor star with Maisy Stella and Christian Convery in support.

Several critics are saying this is solid summer escapism and better than the six Jurassic sequels that followed the 1993 original. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 83% with 66 on Metacritic. At the 98th Academy Awards, Jurassic World Rebirth was the first feature in that franchise since 1997’s The Lost World: Jurassic Park to land a Visual Effects nomination. If Rebirth could get there with its CG dinos, so could Oak Street. I don’t think that’s anywhere near automatic as competition will be considerable with Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, and Dune: Part Three perhaps already with reserved slots. I suspect this will at least make the shortlist of possibilities. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

August 14-16 Box Office Predictions

While Spider-Man: Brand New Day should face no trouble spinning a third weekend atop the charts, two dinosaur centered features will attempt to make their mark at multiplexes. We have 1980s set The End of Oak Street with Anne Hathaway and Ewan McGregor and animated three-quel PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie debuting. They premiere alongside The Brink of War from Angel Studios (recounting the Reagan/Gorbachev 1986 Icelandic summit) and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

The End of Oak Street Box Office Prediction
PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie Box Office Prediction
The Brink of War Box Office Prediction

Buzz appears to picking up for Oak Street, the sci-fi adventure from acclaimed filmmaker David Robert Mitchell. While I wouldn’t discount an opening approaching $40 million in a best case scenario, the floor could be in the low 20s. My low 30s projection gives it a second place showing.

The third pic based on the Canadian kids TV series, I foresee PAW Patrol coming in a bit behind 2023 predecessor PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie. It could be in third place, but I’ve got it in fourth slightly behind the fifth outing for The Odyssey.

The Brink of War should land the five spot. The political drama may get beyond my mid single digits estimate, but I’ll play it safe.

As mentioned, Spidey is poised to make it three in a row. A percentage decline in the high 50s would mean a gross just north of $60 million and here’s how I have it all shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $60.2 million

2. The End of Oak Street

Predicted Gross $31.1 million

3. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $21 million

4. PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million

5. The Brink of War

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

Box Office Results (August 7-9)

Two new comedies struggled while Peter Parker and Odysseus continued to rule. Spider-Man: Brand New Day, after scoring the greatest domestic opening haul in box office history, had the third strongest sophomore weekend ever behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($149 million) and Avengers: Endgame ($147 million). The MCU saga took in $144.2 million. While that’s below my generous $153 million take, the ten-day total is a whopping $654 million.

The Odyssey held runner-up status once again with $31.7 million, on target with my $31.6 million call. The future awards player sits at $461 million after four weeks.

Rom com One Night Only starring Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner was third at the low end of expectations with $5.5 million. I thought it would nab $7.8 million.

Toy Story 5 was fourth with $4.2 million (I said $4.9 million) as the Pixar sequel brought its eight-week earnings to $470 million.

Finally, Super Troopers 3 fell way behind its 2018 predecessor in fifth. While part 2 made off with $15 million out of the gate, part 3 was good for only $4 million. I went with $7.6 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…