Benedict Cumberbatch is the second Best Actor hopeful covered in my Case Of posts for that category. If you missed the first on Javier Bardem for Being the Ricardos, it’s here:
We might be witnessing a right year and right movie matchup for Cumberbatch to nab his first Oscar. After being previously nominated seven years back for The Imitation Game, he’s starring in the Best Picture frontrunner and garnered career best reviews. He’s been mentioned in all key precursors such as the Globes, SAG, BAFTA and Critics Choice. Furthermore, he had an impressive 2021 beyond Dog with kudos for the title role in The Electrical Life of Louis Wain and appearing as Doctor Strange in box office behemoth Spider-Man: No Way Home.
The Case Against Benedict Cumberbatch:
Only 3 Best Actor recipients in the 21st century came from the BP winner. Yet the most compelling case against comes courtesy of Will Smith, who stands as the favorite for King Richard. This is Smith’s third try and Benedict’s second. Voters may figure Cumberbatch will have other opportunities. The Academy has three other options to bestow gold on the Dog cast (with the best possibility being Kodi Smit-McPhee in supporting actor).
Previous Nominations: 1
The Imitation Game (2014 – Actor)
The Verdict:
I do believe Cumberbatch is a strong second to Smith at the moment. If Cumberbatch manages to grab the SAG or BAFTA, he could play the spoiler role that Anthony Hopkins (The Father) managed last year over the favored Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
My Case Of posts will continue with Supporting Actress and Ariana DeBose in West Side Story…
For the second year in a row, the British Academy Film Awards (or BAFTAs) showed its unpredictable nature with some shocking omissions and unexpected inclusions. The last major precursor before Oscar nominations are unveiled Tuesday, I went 63 of 99 when it comes to races with a correlation to the Academy’s competitions. Truth be told – it coulda been worse considering the surprises we witnessed today.
Let’s break them down one by one with some commentary, shall we?
Film
Nominees: Belfast, Don’t Look Up, Dune, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: The BAFTAs delivered a great haul for Pizza. It and Don’t Look Up got in over my picks of The Tragedy of Macbeth and West Side Story (which both underwhelmed). Gut reaction says Power is in the lead.
Director
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Audrey Diwan (Happening), Julia Ducournau (Titane), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), Aleem Khan (After Love)
How I Did: 4/6
Commentary: Wow – no Kenneth Branagh for Belfast or Denis Villeneuve for Dune! They miss with Anderson and Diwan taking the spots. Like with Film, Campion could be out in front.
Leading Actress
Nominees: Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Emilia Jones (CODA), Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World), Joanna Scanlan (After Love), Tessa Thompson (Passing)
How I Did: 3/6
Commentary: Surprises galore here! No Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos or Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter. I predicted both along with Claire Rushbrook for Ali & Ava. In their slots are Haim (continuing the Licorice love), Jones, and Thompson. I would also note no Kristen Stewart in Spencer after her SAG snub.
Now here’s an interesting stat – since 2013, the BAFTA Leading Actress recipient has matched the Oscar winner. So… are Kidman and Colman in trouble? Could Gaga be on her way to a gold statue? Does this show Haim’s potential strength at getting an Academy mention? Questions abound, but I know one thing – this year’s Actress race is as intriguing as last year’s.
Leading Actor
Nominees: Adeel Akhtar (Ali & Ava), Mahershala Ali (Swan Song), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up), Stephen Graham (Boiling Point), Will Smith (King Richard)
How I Did: 3/6
Commentary: Smith’s inclusion here (which I didn’t project) just might solidify him as the Oscar frontrunner (with Cumberbatch pretty close behind). Academy hopefuls Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!) and Denzel Washington (Macbeth) were left out as was Daniel Craig in his swan song as Bond in No Time to Die. In their place – Smith, Ali (following up on his Globe nominated turn), and DiCaprio.
Side note – somehow, Denzel has never been nominated for a BAFTA.
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Caitriona Balfe (Belfast), Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Ann Dowd (Mass), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), Ruth Negga (Passing)
How I Did: 4/6
Commentary: Dowd finally shows up! I must say – no huge shockers here as she and Ellis made it over Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) and Kathryn Hunter (Macbeth). We’ll see if DeBose’s potential sweep continues here.
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Mike Faist (West Side Story), Ciaran Hinds (Belfast), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Woody Norman (C’Mon C’Mon), Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
How I Did: 3/6
Commentary: There was a double dose of Dog love for Plemons (who I didn’t predict) and Smit-McPhee (who I did and he could certainly win). I also went with Faist’s costar David Alvarez instead in a last minute switch that I now regret. And young Norman is responsible for the only nod for C’Mon C’Mon. I also went with Benicio del Toro for The French Dispatch and Jamie Dornan in Belfast. At this point, an Oscar nod for Dornan seems like a reach. Also worth noting is that, despite Pizza over performing, no Bradley Cooper.
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Being the Ricardos, Belfast, Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Here’s a list that may absolutely match the Oscar one. I said After Love over Richard (which had a solid day). Like with the Academy, this might be a Belfast v. Pizza showdown and considering how well the latter did, I might lean that way.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: CODA, Drive My Car, Dune, The Lost Daughter, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Went with West Side Story over Dune. This is Power‘s to lose.
Animated Film
Nominees: Encanto, Flee, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines
How I Did: 3/4
Commentary: Rather predictable list though I said Ron’s Gone Wrong instead of Luca.
Film Not in the English Language
Nominees: Drive My Car, The Hand of God, Parallel Mothers, Petite Maman, The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: No Flee here or Titane with God and Mothers in. Drive My Car is the favorite.
Documentary
Nominees: Becoming Cousteau, Cow, Flee, The Rescue, Summer of Soul
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Summer of Soul did well when factoring in the surprise Editing nod. It made it along with Cousteau over my picks of The Sparks Brothers and The Velvet Underground.
Cinematography
Nominees: Dune, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Well – Macbeth got something (!) Only miss here was going with Belfast instead of Alley.
Costume Design
Nominees: Cruella, Cyrano, Dune, The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley
How I Did: 2/5
Commentary: There’s always a pesky 2/5 race where I just whiff. I got Cyrano and Dune right but the others popped up over House of Gucci, Last Night in Soho, and West Side Story. I didn’t predict it, but Cruella could be the main competition for Dune.
Editing
Nominees: Belfast, Dune, Licorice Pizza, No Time to Die, Summer of Soul
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Soul‘s aforementioned placement is unexpected – could it possibly follow suit with the Academy? Also didn’t project Pizza. They are in over Last Night in Soho and (you guessed it) West Side Story.
Makeup and Hair
Nominees: Cruella, Cyrano, Dune, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Cyrano over The Electrical Life of Louis Wain. Honestly, other than Cyrano, I think any of the hopefuls could take this.
Original Score
Nominees: Being the Ricardos, Don’t Look Up, Dune, The French Dispatch, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Ricardos and Don’t Look Up in; The Green Knight and Spencer out. Probably a showdown of Dune v. Dog.
Production Design
Nominees: Cyrano, Dune, The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Here’s a rare category where I incorrectly had West Side missing. It’s in, along with Cyrano (which had a decent haul with tech races) over Belfast and Macbeth.
Sound
Nominees: Dune, Last Night in Soho, No Time to Die, A Quiet Place Part II, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Place over Belfast. Expect Dune to reign supreme.
Special Visual Effects
Nominees: Dune, Free Guy, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, The Matrix Resurrections, No Time to Die
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Should be another victory for Dune as Free Guy and Ghostbusters made it over my selections of The King’s Man and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings.
And there’s your recap. As a reminder, my FINAL Oscar predictions (which I’m currently beating myself up over) will be posted tomorrow! Stay tuned…
The last major precursor nominations before Tuesday’s Oscar nods come out tomorrow and it’s the British Academy Film Awards or BAFTAs. Let’s discuss them a bit, shall we? The BAFTAs can be a confusing branch to figure out.
For starters, the number of nominees in each category is a tad puzzling. Best Film has five as do the tech races and screenplay derbies. Director and the acting competitions contain 6 while Animated Film is 4. However, Documentary and “Film Not in the English Language” is 5. Got that?
While past years have matched the Oscars fairly closely in the big categories, 2020 was an exception. While 4 of the 5 Best Film contenders ended up nabbing BP mentions from the Academy, it was just 3 of the directors. For Best Actor, it was also 3 but in Best Actress only two. Same goes for Supporting – 3 in Actor, 2 in Actress.
In other words, projecting the BAFTAs is a major crapshoot but I’ll try. Since it’s British voters, titles such as the BBC’s After Love are expected to perform well in some of the major races.
Another major note – I am only forecasting competitions where there’s a direct correlation to the Academy. Therefore I’m not weighing in on Best British Film, Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer, or Casting.
For each race, I’ll give you my picks (and I triple checked the numbers) and an alternate. A recap on how I did and my general thoughts are up tomorrow and my final Oscar predictions will be up Friday!
As has become a late December tradition on the blog, I will highlight some performers who had a fruitful year either at the box office or in terms of awards contention. Our first entry fits the description for both.
Benedict Cumberbatch is at the top of the Oscar conversation for Best Actor for his work in Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog. The Netflix drama has already earned him some critics prizes and it appears he will vie for the gold statue along with Will Smith in King Richard or Andrew Garfield in Tick Tick… Boom! It will most certainly mark his second Academy nomination seven years after The Imitation Game.
The actor’s second streaming picture was The Electrical Life of Louis Wain. While the Amazon Prime pic drew mixed reactions, most write-ups praised Cumberbatch’s lead work as the kitten drawing artist.
And though his spy thriller The Courier (which opened last spring) flew under the radar, it generated solid reviews.
The box office potency, of course, comes from Spider-Man: No Way Home in which he reprises his role as Doctor Strange. The Marvel property scored the second largest domestic opening in history and has reignited a sleepy pandemic era marketplace. His appearance in Home should help with crowd anticipation for Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, the sequel to the 2016 original that hits multiplexes in March of next year.
Whether with Oscar voters or mass audiences, Cumberbatch had a visible presence in 2021. My Year Of posts will continue…
Ten days makes a heckuva difference this time around for my Oscar predictions as there are updates in every major category expect Director! The biggest story: Being the Ricardos has established itself as a contender in numerous races based on initial screenings. We also have the rise of C’Mon C’Mon. These two pics have entered my ten Best Picture hopefuls and that’s to the detriment of Spencer and The Tragedy of Macbeth.
Additionally:
Nicole Kidman’s portrayal of Lucille Ball in Ricardos vaults 8 spots to #2 in Best Actress. Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) drops from the forecasted five.
Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon) is back in Best Actor and that displaces Peter Dinklage (Cyrano).
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) hits the 5 spot in Supporting Actress and that takes out Ruth Negga (Passing).
I’ve replaced Jamie Dornan in Belfast with his costar Ciaran Hinds in Supporting Actor.
In the screenplay race, Ricardos is in and King Richard is out in Original. For Adapted – Dune gets in over Macbeth.
We also have movement in the top spots. In the wide open Supporting Actor derby, Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) jumps 4 spots to #1. Licorice Pizza replaces Belfast for first in Original Screenplay.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)
5. King Richard (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-2)
12. CODA (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Spencer (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Flee (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Mass (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tick, Tick… Boom!
House of Gucci
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pablo Larrain, Spencer
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (+8)
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Alan Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Jude Hill, Belfast
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (E)
10. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (+4)
2. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-1)
8. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Belfast (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (E)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Mass (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Hero (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spencer (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Parallel Mothers
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Humans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Dune (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. CODA (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Passing (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
House of Gucci
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 6) (-1_
8. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 8) (E)
9. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 9) (E)
10. Charlotte (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flee (PR: 3) (E)
4. Drive My Car (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Titane (PR: 5) (-1)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (E)
9. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Memoria (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Great Freedom
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Attica (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Procession (PR: 9) (+3)
7. President (PR: 7) (E)
8. The First Wave (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ailey (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (+4)
7. West Side Story (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spencer (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune (PR: 3) (E)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (E)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
House of Gucci
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cruella (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spencer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Being the Ricardos (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Green Knight (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Spencer (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)
5. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. King Richard (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Belfast
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 2) (-2)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Guns Go Bang’ from The Harder They Fall (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 1) (-1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Belfast (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: Not Ranked)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Licorice Pizza
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 6) (-1)
8. King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Cyrano
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Eternals (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Free Guy (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Finch (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Suicide Squad (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to the following in terms of movies nabbing these numbers with their nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast
8 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
Don’t Look Up
5 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, West Side Story
4 Nominations
King Richard, Spencer
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, C’Mon C’Mon, Flee, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2 Nominations
Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, Mass, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, Drive My Car, Eternals, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Rescue, Respect, Summer of Soul, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World
My Oscar predictions in all feature film categories are updated and there’s movement to discuss! There’s been a change in my ten Best Picture nominees for the first time in several weeks as House of Gucci has fallen and I’m putting Don’t Look Up in. The social media reaction to Gucci has resulted in it dropping for multiple categories. I still have Lady Gaga garnering an Actress nod (though she drops from 2nd to 4th) as well as Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling.
In other developments:
Andrew Garfield vaults from 6th to 3rd in Best Actor for Tick, Tick… Boom! That’s to the detriment of Joaquin Phoenix for C’Mon C’Mon
Two changes in the ever evolving Supporting Actor derby with Jason Isaacs (Mass) and Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) making the cut and displacing Jared Leto (Gucci) and Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) is on the outside looking in for Supporting Actress with Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) rising
Don’t Look Up also enters Original Screenplay with Mass falling out of the top five
You can read all the updates right here!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dune (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 12) (+4)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spencer (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Flee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 14) (+2)
13. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (-5)
14. CODA (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mass (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, House of Gucci
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Tessa Thompson, Passing
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jude Hill, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, House of Gucci
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 7) (E)
8. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 8) (E)
9. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Al Pacino, House of Gucci
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 4) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+3)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mass (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Spencer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Hero (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Humans (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Passing (PR: 9) (+3)
7. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune (PR: 7) (-1)
9. CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Who Is Anne Frank (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Charlotte (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Vivo
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flee (PR: 3) (E)
4. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Titane (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hand of God (PR: 4) (-2)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (E)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Memoria (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Attica (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The First Wave (PR: 9) (+3)
7. President (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ailey (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Procession (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Ascension
The Velvet Underground
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (-1)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Spencer (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (E)
8. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Green Knight (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+3)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+2)
9. King Richard (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Belfast (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Licorice Pizza
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: Not Ranked)
3. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 5) (-4)
10. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spencer (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. Cyrano (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Belfast (PR: 7) (-1)
9. House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Power of the Dog
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
7. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Last Duel (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Cyrano (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Matrix Resurrections
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Free Guy (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Eternals (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Finch (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Spider-Man: Far From Home (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Suicide Squad (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to the following pictures nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast
8 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
Spencer
5 Nominations
King Richard, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story
3 Nominations
Flee, House of Gucci
2 Nominations
Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, Mass, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, C’Mon C’Mon, Drive My Car, Godzilla vs. Kong, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, The Rescue, Respect, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Summer of Soul, Tick, Tick… Boom!, Titane, The Worst Person in the World
Benedict Cumberbatch is primed to receive his second Best Actor nod (after 2014’s The Imitation Game) for his work in Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog. It screened at Venice this week, but it’s not the only title headlined by the star.
The other is The Electrical Life of Louis Wain where Cumberbatch plays the real life title character of the English artist known for his cat drawings. Will Sharpe directs and the supporting cast includes Claire Foy, Andrea Riseborough, Sharon Rooney, and Toby Jones. It hits theaters in mid October with an Amazon Prime streaming premiere in early November.
Early reviews are mixed. I don’t anticipate this getting any life with awards voters in any category. Bottom line: Cumberbatch should get a tuxedo or two or three ready for next year. And it will be for Dog and not the one about the guy known for cats. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
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