Concentrating on a formative year in the mid 1970s for the late chef and travel show host Anthony Bourdain, biopic Tony has a limited theatrical engagement beginning August 7th before nationwide expansion on August 21st. Matt Johnson (BlackBerry) directs with Dominic Sessa in the title role. Costars include Emilia Jones, Dagmara Dimińczyk, Rich Sommer, Stavros Halkias, Leo Woodall, and Antonio Banderas.
Many reviews are praising unconventionality in an often conventional genre with 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 71 Metacritic. The latter score is more indicative of limited awards prospects. A24 might be more preoccupied with Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut and Olivia Wilde’s The Invite. Sessa, who garnered acclaim for his big screen debut in 2023’s The Holdovers, is once again getting high marks. However, the distributor would have to really push him in a Best Actor derby that is already looking crowded. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Moviegoers continue to get new looks at potential Oscar contenders in the last couple of weeks since my last predictions. We got our first extended glimpse for Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s Digger and it has sparked plenty of social media chatter for what appears to be a big swing for the filmmaker and Tom Cruise. I could see this going either way. For now I’m keeping it above the line in several of my forecasts.
This is the weekend where Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is dominating the box office with the review embargo having lifted four days ago. The results are impressive with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 89 Metacritic. It is a threat not only to be nominated in Best Picture and Director (which appears automatic) but to win. As I wrote about in my detailed prediction post, the acting races shifted a bit in my calculations. The “in or out” debate regarding Matt Damon continues. However, Anne Hathaway seems to have solidified a spot in Supporting Actress. Her costar Samantha Morton’s inclusion is less likely unless Universal mounts a spirited campaign. As for the Supporting Actors, Robert Pattinson/Tom Holland/John Leguizamo could materialize. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if no consensus emerges among them and they all miss the cut.
Fall festivals are beginning to announce their lineups. The opener at Venice was revealed to be Danny Boyle’s Ink starring Jack O’Connell, Guy Pearce (as media titan Rupert Murdoch), and Claire Foy. This was a surprise considering the release date was expected to be 2027. It was also announced that Netflix will carry U.S. distribution rights. Now it’s a question mark whether the streamer will choose a limited theatrical engagement in 2026 followed by the small screen output. The high profile Venice slot has me leaning toward a premiere before the calendar year closes. It joins my lineup just on the outside looking in with Pearce projected in Supporting Actor.
Speaking of release date uncertainty, we still don’t know if Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven (an adaptation of an Anne Rice novel) is out this year. I’m still listing it, but it drops out of my BP lineup. The beneficiary of that change is Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! which unveiled its first trailer this week. Leading man Pedro Pascal also makes the cut for the first time over Sebastian Stan (Fjord). There’s also chatter that Joel Coen’s Jack of Spades is moving to 2027 and I’m moving it outside of my projections at press time.
The Toronto Film Festival’s lineup is beginning trickle out with Sian Heder’s Being Heumann serving as the opener and Prima Facie with Cynthia Erivo tagged as a gala presentation. Paper Tiger from James Gray, which played at Cannes to a mostly positive though not overwhelming reception, will be first out of the gate at the New York Film Festival.
You can read all the movement from the last two weeks below and expect a fresh update in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Digger (PR: 3) (-2)
6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Obsession (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Invite (PR: 17) (+5)
13. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
14. A Place in Hell (PR: 14) (E)
15. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (-5)
16. The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (-3)
17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (-2)
18. Fatherland (PR: 16) (-2)
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)
20. Michael (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Artificial (PR: 18) (-4)
23. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (E)
24. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (-4)
25. Josephine (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Werwulf
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javie Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (+5)
9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)
12. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell
Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 15) (+8)
8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (E)
13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)
10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Rami Malek, The Man I Love
Javier Bardem, The Beloved
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (E)
7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Halle Bailey, The Debut
Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-6)
11. Guittarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 14) (+3)
12. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell
Jesse Plemons, Digger
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Obsession (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (E)
8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Primetime (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Artificial (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Fatherland (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Drama (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Only Living Pickpocket Living in New York (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Wildwood (PR: 13) (E)
14. Prima Facie (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Minotaur (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A Long Winter
Best International Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coward (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Mimesis (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Beloved (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2 (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hoppers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)
8. In Waves (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Minions & Monsters
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. 14th (PR: Not Ranked)
3. One in a Million (PR: 7) (+4)
4. American Doctor (PR: 6) (+2)
5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 2) (-4)
7. The History of Concrete (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 9) (+1)
9. When a Witness Recants (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Time and Water (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Everybody to Kenmure Street
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Behemoth!
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Digger (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Michael (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 4) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Fjord (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Obsession
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clayface (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Michael (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicker (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Bride! (PR: 9) (E)
10. Is God Is (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Madden
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Wildwood (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
The Social Reckoning
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (E)
7. TBD from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)
10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Hexed
“Save the Day” from Hoppers
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Wuthering Heights (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jack of Spades
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Cry to Heaven
Obsession
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)
7. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)
8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Mandalorian and Grogu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wildwood
That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Digger, Project Hail Mary
7 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
Fjord
5 Nominations
The Debut, Dune: Part Three
4 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Michael, Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, The Invite,A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5, Whalefall
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Coward, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Wildwood
Happy 250th birthday weekend, America! And what better way to celebrate than with fresh Oscar predictions now that we’ve surpassed the midway point of 2026. That means I’m expanding my forecasts from 8 categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, the two screenplays contests) to all 21 races covering feature-length motion pictures.
This is the first glimpse at how many overall nominations I believe the hopefuls will generate. It arrives approximately two months before the fall festival season (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) kicks into gear. That trio of fests will undoubtedly alter the landscape of contenders and pretenders.
When I do my next predictions, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will be out. We will have a much better ide whether it deserves the perch atop Best Picture and Director and elsewhere. As soon as reviews drop, look for my individual Oscar Predictions post with the next full update likely arriving on July 19th.
I’ve put Inde Navarrette’s work in Obsession back in lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress. The studio could place it in either as we await word on their strategy. As of now, I feel her performance could materialize in both races. I’m also placing all performers from The Black Ball in supporting until that is clarified.
I’m keeping my BP listings at 25 and the seven top line races that I’ve previously covered at 15 possibilities. For the other competitions, I am listing 10 possibilities.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. All of a Sudden (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Behemoth! (PR: 16) (+4)
13. The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)
14. A Place in Hell (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Fatherland (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Invite (PR: 17) (E)
18. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)
20. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (E)
21. Michael (PR: 24) (+3)
22. Josephine (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Jack of Spades (PR: 22) (-2)
25. Werwulf (PR: 18) (-7)
Dropped Out:
Saturn Return
Club Kid
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)
7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (E)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Penélope Cruz, Bunker
Zendaya, The Drama
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)
7. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (E)
11. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 13) (E)
14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball – moved to Supporting Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three
Hanns Zischler, Fatherland
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+7)
4. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (E)
12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (E)
14. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to lead Actress)
Gemma Chan, Josephine
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 13) (+4)
10. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actor
15. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Milo Quifes, The Black Ball
Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Obsession (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)
7. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Club Kid (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Primetime (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Fatherland (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)
15. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saturn Return
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Invite (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Wildwood (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Minotaur (PR: 13) (-1)
15. A Long Winter (PR: 14) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball
2. Fjord
3. All of a Sudden
4. Minotuar
5. Coward
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland
7. Possible Love
8. Mimesis
9. Rose
10. The Beloved
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood
2. Toy Story 5
3. Ray Gunn
4. Tangles
5. Hoppers
Other Possibilities:
6. In Waves
7. Forgotten Island
8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
9. Iron Boy
10. Minions & Monsters
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem
2. Nuisance Bear
3. To Hold a Mountain
4. The History of Concrete
5. When a Witness Recants
Other Possibilities:
6. American Doctor
7. One in a Million
8. Time and Water
9. Rehearsals for a Revolution
10. Everybody to Kenmure Street
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Digger
5. Michael
Other Possibilities:
6. Fjord
7. The Debut
8. Dune: Part Three
9. Cry to Heaven
10. Behemoth!
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Dune: Part Three
4. The Black Ball
5. Digger
Other Possibilities:
6. Cry to Heaven
7. Fatherland
8. Werwulf
9. Disclosure Day
10. Jack of Spades
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Sense and Sensibility
4. Cry to Heaven
5. Dune: Part Three
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2
8. Jack of Spades
9. Wuthering Heights
10. I Love Boosters
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Wild Horse Nine
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three
7. Cry to Heaven
8. Fjord
9. Obsession
10. Behemoth!
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Digger
2. Werwulf
3. The Odyssey
4. Clayface
5. Michael
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball
7. Dune: Part Three
8. Cry to Heaven
9. The Bride!
10. Madden
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. The Black Ball
3. Project Hail Mary
4. Disclosure Day
5. Cry to Heaven
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three
7. Digger
8. Wild Horse Nine
9. Wildwood
10. The Social Reckoning
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5
2. TBD from The Black Ball
3. TBD from The Debut
4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad
Other Possibilities:
6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2
7. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights
8. TBD from Hexed
9. “Save the Day” from Hoppers
10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Dune: Part Three
4. The Black Ball
5. Cry to Heaven
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger
7. Werwulf
8. Jack of Spades
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth
10. Backrooms
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three
2. The Odyssey
3. Project Hail Mary
4. The Black Ball
5. Michael
Other Possibilities:
6. Disclosure Day
7. Cry to Heaven
8. Digger
9. Werwulf
10. Obsession
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. Godzilla Minus Zero
5. Whalefall
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday
7. Disclosure Day
8. Wildwood
9. The End of Oak Street
10. The Sheep Detectives
And that works out to my inaugural tally showing these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
The Black Ball, The Odyssey
10 Nominations
Digger, White Horse Nine
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
6 Nominations
Dune: Part Three, Fjord
5 Nominations
The Debut
4 Nominations
Cry to Heaven
3 Nominations
Michael, Obsession
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
Clayface, Coward, Disclosure Day, Godzilla Minus Zero, The History of Concrete, Hoppers, The Invite, Minotaur, Nuisance Bear, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Werwulf, Whalefall, When a Witness Recants. Wildwood
As we move closer to knowing whether Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey deserves its placeholder #1 rankings in Best Picture and Director, we have seen some new trailers for consideration in the two weeks since my last update. I have said that you can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but we can look for clues about who the studio will focus on.
Jesse Eisenberg’s follow-up to A Real Pain (which won Kieran Culkin a Supporting Actor Oscar) is not titled No One Cares (which was rumored to be a working name). The first preview reveals it is called The Debut with hints that it’s a somewhat of two-hander between Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti. That said, I still have Halle Bailey listed as a possibility in Supporting Actress.
We got our first glimpse of Georgia Oakley’s Sense and Sensibility with Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmé Creed-Miles vying for noms. And we witnessed a Digger promotional ad that certainly indicated the studio will be all in on Tom Cruise.
Also in the past two weeks, Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day has proven to be a box office disappointment. In my estimation, its chances in BP and Emily Blunt in Best Actress have gone down.
Toy Story 5 also opened and while reviews were fine, many critics deemed it the weakest of the quintet. Unlike Toy Story 3 and like Toy Story 4, it should reserve a slot in Best Animated Feature but not Best Picture.
Finally, The Invite from Olivia Wilde opened in limited fashion before a nationwide rollout in July. Word-of-mouth is strong and I’m beginning to think it could at least manage an Adapted Screenplay nod… if not more.
You can read all the movement below including a new #1 in Best Actress and some serious shifts in Supporting Actress!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)
6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Obsession (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Place in Hell (PR: !3) (+2)
12. The Social Reckoning (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+2)
14. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Fatherland (PR: 16) (+1)
16. Behemoth! (PR: 17) (+1)
17. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
18. Werwulf (PR: 18) (E)
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 20) (+1)
20. Disclosure Day (PR: 14) (-6)
21. Josephine (PR: 21) (E)
22. Jack of Spades (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Michael (PR: 23) (-1)
25. Club Kid (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Being Heumann
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (E)
14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)
15. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Robert Eggers, Werwulf
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR 8) (+1)
8. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (E)
12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (E)
13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)
14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: 14) (E)
15. Zendaya, The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Guitarricadelfuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Jordan Firstman, Club Kid
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-7)
11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Elizbeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (E)
15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 9) (+1)
9. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-5)
14. Milo Quifes, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Holland, The Odyssey
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven
Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Debut (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Obsession (PR: 6) (E)
7. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (E)
8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (E)
9. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York City (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (E)
11. Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Fatherland (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Primetime (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Saturn Return (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)
