Liam Neeson has a reprieve from interchangeable action flicks this weekend with Marlowe. The neo-noir crime pic reunites the lead (playing the title character detective created by Raymond Chandler) with his Michael Collins director Neil Jordan (Oscar winner for his screenplay for The Crying Game 30 years ago). William Monahan, himself an Academy recipient for his The Departed script, handles writing duties. The supporting cast includes Diane Kruger, Jessica Lange, Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje, Alan Cumming, Danny Huston, and Colm Meaney.
Despite the pedigree, Marlowe isn’t turning up many positive reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes score is an underwhelming 24% and early box office returns are meager. Set in 1939 L.A., it was feasible that categories such as Production Design or Costume Design would be in the mix. However, based on initial reactions, this should be long forgotten come nominations time. My Oscar Predictions posts will continue…
Opening on a surprisingly large 2000 screens this weekend is Greta, a horror thriller from veteran Irish director Neil Jordan. The film is headlined by Elle star Isabelle Huppert and Chloe Grace Moretz with a supporting cast including Maika Monroe, Colm Feore, and Stephen Rea (who starred in Jordan’s 1992 Oscar contender TheCryingGame).
The pic screened last fall at the Toronto Film Festival to mostly positive notices. Its Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 67% currently. I will admit that I was a bit shocked when I saw its large theater count. This is normally the type of feature that opens in limited fashion and hopes to gain steam.
I’ll say that Greta has trouble landing the adult audience it’s catering to and struggles to reach mid single digits.
Greta opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million
For my TylerPerry’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral prediction, click here:
In 2009, the Academy underwent a change in the number of Best Picture nominees honored each year. The rule change allowed a fluctuation of five to ten nominees per year, as opposed to a finite five (all other categories stayed at that number).
As has been discussed on this blog, many felt the change was triggered by 2008’s The Dark Knight, the critically acclaimed comic book pic that was also highest earner of the year. It failed to a garner a Best Picture nod and the thinking was that it was time for more popular options to make it into the mix.
Since the change, the magic number has been nine nominated pictures in most years. This got me thinking: what if that rule had been in effect during prior years? What movies that failed to get a nomination would have certainly made it?
That brings us here. I have gone back to 1990 through 2008 and I’m listing two films from each year that I am confident would have made the shortlist. In selecting each title, here were some of the key indicators. If a Director was nominated for his work and the film failed to get nominated, that probably means it would have been included. Additionally, the screenplay races are a decent predictor of some titles that might have made the magic nine (or eight or ten). For reference sake, I am including the five movies that did get nominated.
So here goes! Two features from 1990-2008 that coulda and likely woulda been contenders…
1990
The Actual Nominees: Dances with Wolves (Winner), Awakenings, Ghost, The Godfather Part III, GoodFellas
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: The Grifters, Reversal of Fortune
1991
The Actual Nominees: The Silence of the Lambs (W), Beauty and the Beast, Bugsy, JFK, The Prince of Tides
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Boyz N The Hood, Thelma & Louise
1992
The Actual Nominees: Unforgiven (W), The Crying Game, A Few Good Men, Howards End, Scent of a Woman
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Malcolm X, The Player
1993
The Actual Nominees: Schindler’s List (W), The Fugitive, In the Name of the Father, The Piano, The Remains of the Day
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Philadelphia, Short Cuts
1994
The Actual Nominees: Forrest Gump (W), Four Weddings and a Funeral, Pulp Fiction, Quiz Show, The Shawshank Redemption
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Bullets Over Broadway, Three Colors: Red
1995
The Actual Nominees: Braveheart (W), Apollo 13, Babe, Il Postino, Sense and Sensibility
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Dead Man Walking, Leaving Las Vegas
1996
The Actual Nominees: The English Patient (W), Fargo, Jerry Maguire, Secrets & Lies, Shine
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: The People Vs. Larry Flynt, Sling Blade
1997
The Actual Nominees: Titanic (W), As Good as It Gets, The Full Monty, Good Will Huinting, L.A. Confidential
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Boogie Nights, The Sweet Hereafter
1998
The Actual Nominees: Shakespeare in Love (W), Elizabeth, Life is Beautiful, Saving Private Ryan, The Thin Red Line
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Gods and Monsters, The Truman Show
1999
The Actual Nominees: American Beauty (W), The Cider House Rules, The Green Mile, The Insider, The Sixth Sense
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Being John Malkovich, Topsy-Turvy
2000
The Actual Nominees: Gladiator (W), Chocolat, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Erin Brockovich, Traffic
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Almost Famous, Billy Elliot
2001
The Actual Nominees: A Beautiful Mind (W), Gosford Park, In the Bedroom, Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Moulin Rouge!
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Black Hawk Down, Mulholland Drive
2002
The Actual Nominees: Chicago (W), Gangs of New York, The Hours, Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, The Pianist
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Far from Heaven, Talk to Her
2003
The Actual Nominees: Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (W), Lost in Translation, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Mystic River, Seabiscuit
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: City of God, In America
2004
The Actual Nominees: Million Dollar Baby (W), The Aviator, Finding Neverland, Ray, Sideways
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Hotel Rwanda, Vera Drake
2005
The Actual Nominees: Crash (W), Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Good Night and Good Luck, Munich
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Syriana, Walk the Line
2006
The Actual Nominees: The Departed (W), Babel, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Pan’s Labyrinth, United 93
2007
The Actual Nominees: No Country for Old Men (W), Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, There Will Be Blood
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Away from Her, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
2008
The Actual Nominees: Slumdog Millionaire (W), The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: The Dark Knight, Doubt
And there you have it! There will be a part II to this post. What if the rule change had never occurred? From 2009 until the present, what would have been the five nominated Pictures if only that number was allowed. Stay tuned…
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 