Michael Caine, the legendary 88-year-old Brit, has had a unique Oscar history. He’s 2 for 2 with victories when nominated for Supporting Actor (1986’s Hannah and Her Sisters, 1999’s The Cider House Rules). Yet Caine is 0 for 4 when up for Best Actor (1966’s Alfie, 1972’s Sleuth, 1983’s Educating Rita, 2002’s The Quiet American).
This weekend, his dramedy Best Sellers is out via streaming services. It casts him as a cantankerous author adapting to the industry in the 21st century. Lina Roessler directs with a supporting cast including Aubrey Plaza, Scott Speedman, and Cary Elwes.
While Caine is receiving solid notices for his performance, the picture itself is garnering mixed takes. The Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at 61%. Due to this, it’s a safe bet that the star won’t be contending for a 7th nod with the Academy. I suppose the Golden Globes (if they happen this year) are a slight possibility in the Musical/Comedy race, but that could also be a crowded field due to a high number of genre selections in the former. My Oscar Predictions posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Continuing on with my look back at the major categories from 1990 to the present at the Oscars, we arrive at Best Supporting Actor! If you missed my post regarding Supporting Actress, you can find it right here:
As I did with that blog entry, I’m picking the top 3 least surprising winners (performers who essentially sailed right through awards season) and the 3 biggest upsets in each race. I am also selecting the strongest and weakest fields overall.
As a primer, here are the 28 actors whose support earned them a golden statue:
1990 – Joe Pesci, GoodFellas
1991 – Jack Palance, City Slickers
1992 – Gene Hackman, Unforgiven
1993 – Tommy Lee Jones, The Fugitive
1994 – Martin Landau, Ed Wood
1995 – Kevin Spacey, The Usual Suspects
1996 – Cuba Gooding Jr., Jerry Maguire
1997 – Robin Williams, Good Will Hunting
1998 – James Coburn, Affliction
1999 – Michael Caine, The Cider House Rules
2000 – Benicio del Toro, Traffic
2001 – Jim Broadbent, Iris
2002 – Chris Cooper, Adaptation
2003 – Tim Robbins, Mystic River
2004 – Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
2005 – George Clooney, Syriana
2006 – Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
2007 – Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
2008 – Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
2009 – Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
2010 – Christian Bale, The Fighter
2011 – Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2012 – Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
2013 – Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
2014 – J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
2015 – Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
2016 – Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2017 – Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
There are plenty to choose from as far least surprising winners, but here’s my top ones:
3. Gene Hackman, Unforgiven
Clint Eastwood’s Western picked up a slew of awards on Oscar night and Hackman’s inclusion in that race was never really in doubt. It was his second statue after winning Best Actor 21 years previously for The French Connection.
2. Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
It was director Christopher Nolan giving numerous awards speeches on behalf of the late Ledger, as his work playing the iconic villain swept all precursors as well. This remains not only the only win in the omnipresent superhero genre in the 21st century, but the only nomination.
1. Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Like Ledger, Bardem created a bad guy for the ages in the Coen Brothers Oscar-winning picture. He picked up all the precursors as well for his role.
And now the upsets!
3. James Coburn, Affliction
There was clearly no front-runner in 1998 as a different actor was honored in each preceding awards show. Ed Harris took the Golden Globe for The Truman Show, Billy Bob Thornton (A Simple Plan) was victorious at the Critics Choice Awards, Robert Duvall’s role in A Civil Action was honored at SAG, and Geoffrey Rush (Elizabeth) was the BAFTA recipient. Surely one of them would win the Oscar, but it instead went to Mr. Coburn.
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
In 2015, the general consensus was that Sylvester Stallone would punch out the competition in his signature role for Creed. That would have been quite a feat after Rocky took Best Picture in 1976 – nearly four decades prior. Yet it didn’t materialize when Rylance made the trip to the podium.
1. Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Along the same lines, Eddie Murphy was the strong favorite for his rare dramatic work in Dreamgirls. With Jennifer Hudson as a sure thing for Supporting Actress (which did happen), the musical looked safe for a supporting sweep. The Academy surprisingly went another route by honoring Arkin.
And now to the fields overall and choosing a strongest and weakest. For the least impressive of the bunch, I’m going with 2011. Here were the nominees:
Christopher Plummer, Beginners (winner)
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
When it comes to best overall field, I chose 1993. This is the year that Tommy Lee Jones got the gold in The Fugitive. That’s a rare acting win for an action flick. It was deserved in my view and the other four nominees were very strong as well. They were:
Leonardo DiCaprio, What’s Eating Gilbert Grape
Ralph Fiennes, Schindler’s List
John Malkovich, In the Line of Fire
Pete Postlethwaite, In the Name of the Father
Furthermore, I could keep going with other deserving actors that year, including Val Kilmer in Tombstone and Sean Penn for Carlito’s Way.
The next trip down memory lane will be Best Actress and it will be up soon!
In 2009, the Academy underwent a change in the number of Best Picture nominees honored each year. The rule change allowed a fluctuation of five to ten nominees per year, as opposed to a finite five (all other categories stayed at that number).
As has been discussed on this blog, many felt the change was triggered by 2008’s The Dark Knight, the critically acclaimed comic book pic that was also highest earner of the year. It failed to a garner a Best Picture nod and the thinking was that it was time for more popular options to make it into the mix.
Since the change, the magic number has been nine nominated pictures in most years. This got me thinking: what if that rule had been in effect during prior years? What movies that failed to get a nomination would have certainly made it?
That brings us here. I have gone back to 1990 through 2008 and I’m listing two films from each year that I am confident would have made the shortlist. In selecting each title, here were some of the key indicators. If a Director was nominated for his work and the film failed to get nominated, that probably means it would have been included. Additionally, the screenplay races are a decent predictor of some titles that might have made the magic nine (or eight or ten). For reference sake, I am including the five movies that did get nominated.
So here goes! Two features from 1990-2008 that coulda and likely woulda been contenders…
1990
The Actual Nominees: Dances with Wolves (Winner), Awakenings, Ghost, The Godfather Part III, GoodFellas
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: The Grifters, Reversal of Fortune
1991
The Actual Nominees: The Silence of the Lambs (W), Beauty and the Beast, Bugsy, JFK, The Prince of Tides
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Boyz N The Hood, Thelma & Louise
1992
The Actual Nominees: Unforgiven (W), The Crying Game, A Few Good Men, Howards End, Scent of a Woman
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Malcolm X, The Player
1993
The Actual Nominees: Schindler’s List (W), The Fugitive, In the Name of the Father, The Piano, The Remains of the Day
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Philadelphia, Short Cuts
1994
The Actual Nominees: Forrest Gump (W), Four Weddings and a Funeral, Pulp Fiction, Quiz Show, The Shawshank Redemption
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Bullets Over Broadway, Three Colors: Red
1995
The Actual Nominees: Braveheart (W), Apollo 13, Babe, Il Postino, Sense and Sensibility
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Dead Man Walking, Leaving Las Vegas
1996
The Actual Nominees: The English Patient (W), Fargo, Jerry Maguire, Secrets & Lies, Shine
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: The People Vs. Larry Flynt, Sling Blade
1997
The Actual Nominees: Titanic (W), As Good as It Gets, The Full Monty, Good Will Huinting, L.A. Confidential
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Boogie Nights, The Sweet Hereafter
1998
The Actual Nominees: Shakespeare in Love (W), Elizabeth, Life is Beautiful, Saving Private Ryan, The Thin Red Line
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Gods and Monsters, The Truman Show
1999
The Actual Nominees: American Beauty (W), The Cider House Rules, The Green Mile, The Insider, The Sixth Sense
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Being John Malkovich, Topsy-Turvy
2000
The Actual Nominees: Gladiator (W), Chocolat, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Erin Brockovich, Traffic
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Almost Famous, Billy Elliot
2001
The Actual Nominees: A Beautiful Mind (W), Gosford Park, In the Bedroom, Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Moulin Rouge!
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Black Hawk Down, Mulholland Drive
2002
The Actual Nominees: Chicago (W), Gangs of New York, The Hours, Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, The Pianist
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Far from Heaven, Talk to Her
2003
The Actual Nominees: Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (W), Lost in Translation, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Mystic River, Seabiscuit
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: City of God, In America
2004
The Actual Nominees: Million Dollar Baby (W), The Aviator, Finding Neverland, Ray, Sideways
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Hotel Rwanda, Vera Drake
2005
The Actual Nominees: Crash (W), Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Good Night and Good Luck, Munich
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Syriana, Walk the Line
2006
The Actual Nominees: The Departed (W), Babel, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Pan’s Labyrinth, United 93
2007
The Actual Nominees: No Country for Old Men (W), Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, There Will Be Blood
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: Away from Her, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
2008
The Actual Nominees: Slumdog Millionaire (W), The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader
The Two Coulda Been Contenders: The Dark Knight, Doubt
And there you have it! There will be a part II to this post. What if the rule change had never occurred? From 2009 until the present, what would have been the five nominated Pictures if only that number was allowed. Stay tuned…
Blogger’s Update (Saturday, 01/21, 4:56pm): As mentioned below, I have decided to reconsider and revise my opening weekend prediction for ADog’sPurpose due to the swirling controversy regarding it. I am revising down from $17.9 million to just $10.3 million now.
Blogger’s Update (Wednesday, 01/18, 6:24pm): The prediction below for ADog’sPurpose was written prior to the Wednesday, January 18th allegations in the media involving animal mistreatment on set. Obviously, this story could alter my estimate and I will be monitoring the story as it progresses. I will keep my current projection for the time being, but it is likely to change. I will post further updates as needed.
A Dog’s Purpose is based on a very successful 2010 bestseller by W. Bruce Cameron and the film version hits theaters next weekend. Chronicling the existence of one of man’s best friends through various incarnations, Purpose comes from director Lasse Hallstrom, who was nominated for an Oscar over 30 years ago for Swedish pic My Life as a Dog (he also made The Cider House Rules and Chocolat). Human stars here include Britt Robertson, Dennis Quaid, Josh Gad, and Peggy Lipton (yep, the one from TV’s “The Mod Squad”!).
This adaptation could be rather successful in bringing in a female audience (and dog lovers for that matter). The well-known source material should help and I even think it will likely surpass the opening weekend of its main competitor, Resident Evil: The Final Chapter.
I’ll estimate that Purpose reaches in the mid to high teens for a decent debut. That’s only about half of what Marley and Me made in 2008, but it’s still pretty doggone good.
A Dog’s Purpose opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million
**REVISED NUMBER BASED ON EVENTS
For my Resident Evil: The Final Chapter prediction, click here:
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