The 82nd Golden Globe Awards will come our way in a month on January 5th with Nikki Glaser handling hosting duties. Nominations are out this coming Monday (12/09). Readers of the blog know that I do a whole lotta Oscar speculating. That’s not the case with the GG’s but I’m giving you take on who and what will be nominated.
For the Globes, there are six nominees in each race with the exception of Cinematic and Box Office Achievement where there’s 8. I’ll give my picks along with a runner-up. Some quick notes: the Globes divide their Picture and lead acting derbies into Drama and Musical/Comedy. The designations below are the reported slots where films and performers are contending. Yes, there’s interesting choices with Heretic in comedy. On the flip side, if A Complete Unknown had submitted in Musical/Comedy, Timothée Chalamet might be the easy frontrunner in Best Actor.
Next week I’ll have a recap up with how I did and my early frontrunners for winners!
Best Motion Picture – Drama
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
ALTERNATE – The Room Next Door
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Anora
Challengers
Emilia Pérez
A Real Pain
The Substance
Wicked
ALTERNATE – A Different Man
Best Director
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Jon M. Chu, Wicked
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
ALTERNATE – Edward Berger, Conclave
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
Kate Winslet, Lee
ALTERNATE – Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Daniel Craig, Queer
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
ALTERNATE – John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comed
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
June Squibb, Thelma
Zendaya, Challengers
ALTERNATE – Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Hugh Grant, Heretic
Michael Keaton, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Glen Powell, Hit Man
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool & Wolverine
Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
ALTERNATE – Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night
Best Supporting Actress
Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
ALTERNATE – Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
ALTERNATE – Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Best Screenplay
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Sing Sing
The Substance
ALTERNATE – A Real Pain
Best Animated Feature
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Moana 2
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
ALTERNATE – Piece by Piece
Best Non-English Language Film
All We Imagine as Light
Emilia Pérez
The Girl with the Needle
I’m Still Here
Kneecap
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
ALTERNATE – Universal Language
Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Deadpool & Wolverine
Despicable Me 4
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Inside Out 2
Twisters
Wicked
ALTERNATE – Moana 2
Best Score
The Brutalist
Challengers
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
The Wild Robot
ALTERNATE – The Room Next Door
Best Song
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
“Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper
“Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot
“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
“Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece
ALTERNATE – “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl
That means I have these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
The Brutalist
6 Nominations
Conclave
5 Nominations
Anora, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked
4 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
3 Nominations
Challengers, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Babygirl, Despicable Me 4, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Hard Truths, Heretic, Hit Man, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, Lee, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Nickel Boys, The Outrun, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Thelma, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
As December dawns, my first Oscar predictions in two weeks have substantial changes for us to mull over. It begins with Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance as I have put it in my Best Picture top ten where it had yet to be listed. I still have reservations about including it. This is not the type of genre material that Academy voters usually go for. However, it has its vocal admirers and is one of the most buzzed about pictures of 2024.
The love for The Substance doesn’t stop there. Fourteen days ago, I had it pegged for only a single nomination in Makeup and Hairstyling. Now I have it nabbing five other mentions: Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, and Film Editing.
My BP inclusion for The Substance knocks out Steve McQueen’s Blitz. In fact, Blitz has fallen the most in my estimation in recent days. Two weeks ago, I had it achieving five nods. Now I have it only managing a Best Sound mention.
In Director, Fargeat’s rise puts Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) on the outside looking in. There are two newbies in Best Actress: the aforementioned Demi Moore and Cynthia Erivo from the massively successful Wicked. Their additions subtract Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun) and Amy Adams (Nightbitch).
Speaking of Wicked, Ariana Grande is now in my Supporting Actress quintet and that takes out… Saoirse Ronan for Blitz. That means that I went from projecting Ronan as a double nominee to none.
There are no changes in my Actor and Supporting Actor lineups. I will note that the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown has started industry screenings while the review embargo hasn’t lifted. The early buzz indicates that Timothée Chalamet is looking solid for a nom while its chances elsewhere are shakier.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update available in mid-December!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Substance (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Blitz (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Complete Unknown (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Robert Eggers, Nosferatu
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Kinglsey Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, Gladiator II
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)
8. September 5 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hit Man (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (E)
10. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Complete Unknown
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kneecap (PR: 6) (E)
7. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Universal Language (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dahomey (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Armand (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Grand Tour
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)
7. Transformers One (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Chicken for Linda! (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Savages
Spellbound
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Union (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daughters (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Dahomey (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A New Kind of Wilderness (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Separated
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Anora (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Blitz (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maria (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Conclave (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Emila Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Substance (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. A Different Man (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 6) (E)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Conclave (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Challengers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 7) (+4)
4. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper & Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Beyond” from Moana 2
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maria (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Blitz (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Conclave (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Twisters (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Better Man (PR: 6) (E)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
8 Nominations
Conclave, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Wicked
6 Nominations
Sing Sing, The Substance
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
Maria, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
1 Nomination
Black Box Diaries, Blitz, A Complete Unknown, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Union, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
My first Oscar predictions in two weeks and it’s about what narratives I’m buying and which ones I’m selling. For example, I’m currently not sold that Paramount’s September 5 is the contender that some other prognosticators think it is.
On the flip side, I am starting to buy that Conclave is on the rise. The Focus Features effort from Edward Berger is performing well at the box office for an adult skewering drama. I think it has to a shot to win the big prize and that’s why you’ll see it elevated in multiple categories.
While my BP and directorial and Best Actress lineups are unchanged as far as hopefuls, Daniel Craig (Queer) returns to my Actor quintet at the expense of Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). In Supporting Actor, it is the same five but Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is perched atop the list for the first time. In Supporting Actress, I’m banking on Isabella Rossellini potentially riding that Conclave goodwill and that leaves Ariana Grande (Wicked) on the outside looking in.
You can read all the movement below and the next update should arrive on Thanksgiving weekend!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Real Pain (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Substance (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)
15. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 8) (+2)
7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Steve McQueen, Blitz
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)
7. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
John Magaro, September 5
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Substance (PR: 9) (+3)
7. September 5 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Blitz (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Universal Language (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)
9. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Grand Tour (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Armand
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Spellbound (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Most Precious of Cargoes
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daughters (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Union (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gaucho Gaucho
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Anora (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (E)
8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Substance (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)
4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Beyond” from Moana 2 (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Blitz (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)
4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Twisters (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Civil War
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Twisters (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Better Man (PR: 6) (E)
7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Here
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
9 Nominations
The Brutalist, Conclave
6 Nominations
Wicked
5 Nominations
Anora, Blitz, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Sing Sing
3 Nominations
A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, Saturday Night, The Substance, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
My votes are in for my latest Oscar predictions at the 97th Academy Awards and I’ve elected to elevate Wicked into my BP top ten with Gladiator II sliding out. This is based on buzz for early screenings and I will readily admit that sometimes those viewings can elicit exaggerated reactions. We’ll see if Wicked sticks around in a way that Gladiator II didn’t (the two pics both open November 22nd).
In other movement, Edward Berger (Conclave) is back in my directorial quintet with RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) on the outside looking in. The five spot in Best Actor switches to Sebastian Stan playing a certain 45th POTUS with Daniel Craig (Queer) slipping. Ariana Grande’s witchy Wicked work enters the Supporting Actress derby with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) falling to sixth place. In Supporting Actor, on the other hand, Conclave’s Stanley Tucci re-enters with Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) now out. You can peruse all the activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Blitz (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
11. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-3)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-1)
13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Substance (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Room Next Door
September 5
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)
8. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-2)
10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blitz (PR: 6) (-1)
8. September 5 (PR: 4) (-4)
9. The Substance (PR: 9) (E)
10. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
His Three Daughters
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (E)
5. Universal Language (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Kneecap (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Grand Tour (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Armand (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5 (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)
9. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Orion and the Dark
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Union (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daughters (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dahomey (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anora (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Maria (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (E)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Challengers (PR: 10 (E)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Gladiator II
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Substance (PR: 4) (+2)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)
7. Maria (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Challengers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emila Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+4)
4. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Beyond” from Moana 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)
5. Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)
10. Civil War (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Brutalist
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Twisters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Better Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Wicked (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (E)
10. Here (PR: 5) (-5)
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: PartTwo
10 Nominations
The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez
8 Nominations
Conclave
6 Nominations
Wicked
5 Nominations
Anora, Blitz, Gladiator II, Sing Sing
3 Nominations
A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
Maria, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Twisters
1 Nomination
The Apprentice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, Nosferatu, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, The Substance, Union, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
It’s been two weeks since I’ve updated my predictions in the feature-length categories and developments have occurred. Steve McQueen’s Blitz opened the London Film Festival and its Oscar stock took a hit. While I still have it being nominated in five categories including Picture and Supporting Actress (Saoirse Ronan), it falls out of my high five in Director and Original Screenplay, among others.
Another significant screening was the industry’s first look at Gladiator II a month before it debuts. With the caveat that these previews are often hyperbolic, the 24 years in the making sequel’s fortunes improved. I now have it contending for seven statues including Best Picture. Its rise causes The Room Next Door to drop out of my 10 BP hopefuls. Denzel Washington also re-enters my Supporting Actor picks with Stanley Tucci (Conclave) now on the outside looking in.
In Director, Blitz‘s McQueen is out in favor of RaMell Ross of Nickel Boys. I’ve put Daniel Craig back in my Actor quintet at the expense of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice (which opened to dismal box office).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Blitz (PR: 2) (-5)
8. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+3)
12. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (-3)
13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)
14. September 5 (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (-6)
9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2.Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)
10.Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Juror No. 2
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-2)
10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. September 5 (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
10. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Dídi
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Queer
A Complete Unknown
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Universal Language (PR: 4) (-2)
7. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Grand Tour (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Kneecap (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Armand (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cloud
Flow
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)
9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Wohirrim (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daughters (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Union (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Sugarcane (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dahomey (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Apocalypse in the Tropics
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Blitz (PR: 2) (-5)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Challengers (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
September 5
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 4) (+2)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blitz (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Room Next Door
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+8)
2. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+3)
3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (-6)
8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Visusal Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Twisters (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Better Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
And that all works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Gladiator II
6 Nominations
Anora, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Blitz, Conclave
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, Wicked
2 Nominations
Maria, Nosferatu, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, September 5, The Substance, Twisters, Union, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Smile 2 looks to make horror fans happy this weekend while the Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh romantic drama We Live in Time debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
Likely building upon the goodwill from its predecessor two years ago, Smile 2 should outpace the $22 million that Smile opened wide with. My mid to high 20s estimate puts it easily out front.
Time is hitting just 1000 venues and I’m projecting mid single digits before it expands even wider on October 25th.
Terrifier 3 got off to a terrific start (more on that below). Projecting its sophomore fall is tricky. I would think the unrated horror threequel might be front loaded, but I’m not sure it drops over 60%. It’s actually theaters so it may only decline around 50% and that’s good for a horror flick of this nature. That should put it in third as I foresee The Wild Robot only easing in the mid 20s and staying in second. A similar meager decrease for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice should keep it in the top 5 in its seventh frame. Joker: Folie à Deux may manage fifth place though it should see another calamitous percentage fall. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if Transformers One manages to rise the five spot.
Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. Smile 2
Predicted Gross: $27 million
2. The Wild Robot
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million
3. Terrifier 3
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
5. We Live in Time
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
Box Office Results (October 11-13)
Please note that Joker: Folie à Deux is not listed in my top 5 for its third go-round due to a historically awful sophomore weekend plummet. We’ll get to that in a second, but let’s focus on the other big story for now. Terrifier 3 wowed prognosticators with $18.8 million, ahead of my $14.4 million call. With a reported budget of $5 million, the grisly Art the Clown Christmas bloodbath solidified its franchise bonafides. You can expect a fourth cut in the near future.
The Wild Robot held in second with $14 million and surpassed my $11.7 million prediction. In its three weeks in multiplexes, the DreamWorks Animation adventure has amassed $84 million as it flies to nine digit territory.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice was third with $7.3 million (I said $6.7 million) for a six-week tally of $275 million as it looks to scare up $300M+ domestically.
Joker: Folie à Deux, after a disastrous enough premiere, was down an embarrassing 81% in fourth with $7 million. I was more generous in thinking it would only go down 75% with $9.5 million. The lambasted sequel has taken in $51 million in ten days and will struggle to reach $75 million stateside. As a reminder, its 2019 predecessor made $335 million in the U.S. and Canada and over one billion worldwide.
A slew of newcomers that didn’t star Art the Clown failed to fill seats. Lego themed Pharrell documentary Piece by Piece was fifth with $3.8 million compared to my $5.4 million projection.
Holdover Transformers One was sixth with $3.7 million for a muted $52 million in four weeks. I did not do an estimate for the animated Hasbro title.
Saturday Night, Jason Reitman’s recounting of the lead-up to SNL’s first episode in 1975, was seventh with a discouraging $3.4 million. I had it pegged in fourth with $7.8 million. SHAMELESS PLUG ALERT: check out the homepage on my blog to see my Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time posts. At press time, I’ve written entries for numbers 50-43 and they are being uploaded on a daily(ish) basis.
Manga sequel My Hero Academia: You’re Next was eighth with a meh $3 million, just over half of my $5.9 million prediction.
Finally, The Apprentice stumbled in 10th with $1.6 million (I went with $2.4 million). The story of Donald Trump rising to prominence in the 1980s did not attract curious onlookers.
Blogger’s Update (10/09): Based partly on its considerable 2500 screen count, I am upping my Terrifier 3 from $9.4 million to $14.4 million. That gives it the #1 slot.
A fascinating weekend lies ahead at the box office as a handful of newcomers try to break out, but they could all fall under $10 million. We have low-budget horror threequel Terrifier 3, behind the scenes showbiz dramedy Saturday Night (expanding in wide release), manga superhero entry My Hero Academia: You’re Next, the Pharrell Williams Lego themed doc Piece by Piece, and a Donald Trump biopic The Apprentice all vying for attention. You can peruse my prediction posts on them here:
This sophomore frame of October is one in which Joker: Folie à Deux was widely expected to dominate the charts for a second time. That is very much in danger after its disastrous premiere (more on that below). The musical mashup of Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga could experience a decline in 75% range considering its toxic word-of-mouth.
If so, that could mean a return to 1st position for The Wild Robot in its third outing. It may only dip in the high 30s or low 40s.
Terrifier 3 may have the best breakout potential among the newbies. I have it placing second just ahead of Joker. That’s a development that would’ve been unimaginable days ago.
I don’t foresee any of the fresh product reaching eight digits with Saturday Night in fourth and holdover Beetlejuice Beetlejuice rounding out the high five. The other three debuting flicks I have slotted 6-7 (Academia, Piece) and 9 (Apprentice) with Academia potentially having the chance for a little more than I’m projecting.
Here’s how I have it playing out with a top 8 this time around:
1. Terrifier 3
Predicted Gross: $14.4 million
2. The Wild Robot
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million
3. Joker: Folie à Deux
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
4. Saturday Night
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
6. My Hero Academia: You’re Next
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
7. Piece by Piece
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
8. Transformers One
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
9. The Apprentice
Predicted Gross: $2.4 million
Box Office Results (October 4-6)
Arriving 5 years to the day behind its billion plus grossing predecessor, Joker: Folie à Deux failed in spectacular fashion with critics and audiences. The sequel from Todd Phillips crashed with $37.6 million compared to my $54.3 million prediction. 2019’s original caught lightning in a bottle with a $96 million burst out of the gate (still the best October start in history) and 11 Oscar nominations. Deux could not measure up and that’s being kind considering it came in nearly $60 million lower. To add insult to injury, many reviews were brutal. Even worse, crowds gave it an awful D Cinemascore grade as they did not love this Joker.
The Wild Robot was second with $18.8 million, in line with my $19.8 million take. DreamWorks Animation’s potential frontrunner for Best Animated Feature has grossed $64 million in ten days as it eyes a potential return to #1 this weekend.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice was third at $10.1 million, a bit under my $11.6 million estimate for a five-week haul of $265 million.
Transformers One held up decently in fourth with $5.3 million (I said $4.4 million). The $47 million three-week total is nothing to brag about.
Speak No Evil rounded out the top five with $2.7 million compared to my $3.2 million projection. In four weeks, it’s made $32 million.
Finally, Lionsgate had another turkey on their hands with Wonder prequel White Bird. It was seventh with $1.5 million. My guess? $1.5 million!
At the 92nd Academy Awards that occurred in February 2020, Joker led the way with 11 nominations and 2 victories for Joaquin Phoenix in Actor and the Original Score. At the 97th ceremony, the story will be much different. Joker: Folie à Deux debuted yesterday. It currently has matching 32% ratings with critics and audiences and a D Cinemascore grade (the worst of 2024 and lower than Megalopolis).
A couple of months ago, Deux was seen as a repeat possibility in Best Picture and for Phoenix and costar Lady Gaga. Now I think it’s a legitimate question as to whether Joker gets any nominations at all. Even with the poor word-of-mouth and incoming subpar box office numbers, some tech races are still viable. However, I would not surprised if it totally blanks. That’s what I’m projecting at the moment.
We have a change in Best Picture with The Room Next Door back in over Saturday Night. There’s been a consistent 5 in Best Actor for weeks, but that’s interrupted with Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) sliding in with Daniel Craig (Queer) falling to sixth. In Supporting Actress, Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) rises over Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).
Speaking of Pérez, there’s uncertainty whether it will contend for Original or Adapted Screenplay. I’ve had it in the former and it now moves to the latter.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+2)
10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-3)
12. September 5 (PR: 14) (+2)
13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7 (E)
8. Mohammad Rasolouf, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)
10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jason Reitman, Saturday Night
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)
8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)
7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Drew Starkey, Queer
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+1)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Blitz (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. September 5 (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)
9. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dídi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay
The Substance
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Queer (PR: 6) (-3)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Piano Lesson
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Universal Language (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Flow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dahomey
Caught by the Tides
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Flow (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5 (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Orion and the Dark (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Black Box Diaries (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Daughters (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Union (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Separated
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Anora (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (E)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-5)
8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (+1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+!)
7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Substance (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Blitz (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 10) (+6)
5. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maria (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
10. joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Twisters
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Here (PR: 4) (E)
5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Twisters (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Better Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wicked (PR: 7) (-3)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Brutalist
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez
9 Nominations
Blitz
6 Nominations
Anora, Conclave, Sing Sing
3 Nominations
Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, A Real Pain
2 Nominations
The Apprentice, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Blogger’s Update (10/09): Based on its reported screen count of 2500 and rising buzz, I am upping my prediction from $9.4 million to $14.4 million. That gives it the #1 slot.
A handful of new releases are out in cinemas October 11th and there’s a possibility that micro-budgeted slasher Terrifier 3 tops them all. From writer/director Damien Leone, Art the Clown’s latest hardcore horror flick looks to build upon the success of its 2022 predecessor. David Howard Thornton, Lauren LaVera, Elliot Fullam, Samantha Scaffidi, Chris Jericho, Daniel Roebuck, Tom Savini, and Jason Patric are among the cast members.
Shot for a reported $2 million, it sports an 86% RT rating with 68 on Metacritic. 2016’s Terrifier was a DVD premiere that managed to gain a cult following. Six years later, the sequel became an unexpected hit in multiplexes. Made for just $250k, it took in nearly $11 million.
The third edition, with has seen overseas reports of walkouts due to its gruesomeness, could flirt with double digits out of the gate. I haven’t seen a theater count (and I’ll update this number based on that if warranted), but I’ve got achieving the best start of the newbies ahead of Saturday Night, My Hero Academia: You’re Next, Piece by Piece, and The Apprentice.
Terrifier 3 opening weekend prediction: $14.4 million
Briarcliff Entertainment is banking on audiences being fired up for The Apprentice when it opens October 11th. The biopic from Ali Abbasi focuses on Sebastian Stan’s Donald Trump being mentored in the 70s and 80s by ruthless lawyer Roy Cohn (Jeremy Strong). Maria Bakalova (as first wife Ivana) and Martin Donovan (as patriarch Fred Trump) costar.
After its premiere at Cannes, it was questionable whether The Apprentice would debut stateside before the November 5th election. The former POTUS and current GOP candidate’s legal team threatened to block its pathway in multiplexes. A distribution deal was reached in August and here we are. Reviews are mostly of thumbs up variety at 76% on RT and 60 on Metacritic. Reactions probably aren’t strong enough to make it a Best Picture contender though Stan and Strong could be in the mix for nods.
The Apprentice‘s biggest hurdle could be a longstanding aversion to political pics when it’s all over TV. For example, 2008’s W. from Oliver Stone underwhelmed with $25 million domestically. Viewers may certainly feel they see enough of the 45th President on their home airwaves.
With a reported theater count of under 1800, this may only reach low single digits.
The Apprentice opening weekend prediction: $2.4 million
