Tag: The 13th

Oscar Watch: 13th

The New York Film Festival has begun and that means a fresh round of Oscar Watch posts will be coming your way over the next couple of weeks. For the first time in the fest’s history, a documentary kicked off the proceedings and it’s a very high-profile one.

Ana DuVernay’s 13th (named after the 13th amendment) explores issues of race relations in America over history. This is the director’s first effort since Selma. Early critical reaction from its screening indicate this is a powerful and emotional experience. And most viewers won’t have to wait long at all to view it as it premieres on Netflix a week from today (Friday, October 7).

Since the announcement of the project, 13th has been seen as a front-runner for Best Documentary at the Oscars. The buzz emanating from the Big Apple confirms that status. A more unknown question is whether this documentary expands outside of that category and becomes a player in Best Picture. To do so, it’ll need to make history as no doc has ever received a nod in the biggest race of all.

So for those making their list for probable Best Pic nominees, it’s best to leave 13th out at the time being. Yet it proved yesterday that it’s the one to beat in the Documentary Feature category.

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

We have reached day 6 of my earliest Oscar predictions and that means the big one – Best Picture!

This week, the Venice Film Festival has helped make the scene a little clearer in a couple of ways. For one, Damien Chazelle’s La La Land not only looks like an easy pick for a nomination, but it could potentially be a winner. Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals and Denis Villenueve’s Arrival are also in the mix. For now – I’m leaving Arrival out and Animals in (obviously this could certainly change over the next weeks and months).

There’s plenty that we haven’t seen that appear strong – Martin Scorsese’s Silence. Denzel Washington’s Fences. Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight.

And there are others that have already screened at other festivals that look like contenders: Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester by the Sea. Jeff Nichols’ Loving. This list also includes Nate Parker’s The Birth of a Nation and whether or not news stories involving its director prevent it from being nominated is a legit question. For now, I’ve got it in.

A host of other possibilities abound that have yet to be screened and I’ll be keeping you up to date with numerous prediction posts over the fall. At this juncture, I have nine movies being nominated (there can be anywhere from 9-10).

They are:

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST PICTURE

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

The Birth of a Nation

Fences

La La Land

Loving

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Nocturnal Animals

Silence

Other Possibilities:

The 13th

20th Century Women

Allied

American Pastoral

Arrival

Collateral Beauty

The Founder

The Girl on the Train

Gold

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

I, Daniel Blake

Jackie

LBJ

Live by Night

The Lobster

Lion

Miss Sloane

Passengers

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Rules Don’t Apply

Snowden

Sully

A United Kingdom

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Director

Day 5 of my early 2016 Oscar predictions continues with Best Director and this week has already helped solidify the standings of two: Damien Chazelle for La La Land (who looks like a shoo-in for a nod) and Tom Ford for Nocturnal Animals (not guaranteed; but very good chance).

Then there’s Martin Scorsese for Silence. The legendary director has been nominated 8 times for this award, including for five of his last six pictures (winning for 2006’s The Departed). It’s a safe pick to put him in, but the only uncertainty is whether or not Silence is actually released this year.

Ang Lee has won the award twice (for Brokeback Mountain and Life of Pi) and his Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk looks poised for several nominations.

There are many other possibilities: Denzel Washington could land his first directorial attention for Fences. Jeff Nichols’ Loving has already been the subject of much acclaim. Both Barry Jenkins (Moonlight) and Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea) could find themselves in the mix, as could Denis Villenueve (Arrival) and Morten Tyldum (Passengers) for their science fiction pics.

Also worth noting: Nate Parker for The Birth of a Nation. This is a tricky one as the movie has been a critical hit yet prevalent stories on his past have called into question whether the Academy will make that a factor. We shall see.

Here’s how I have the race right now:

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST DIRECTOR

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Martin Scorsese, Silence

Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Possibilities:

Ben Affleck, Live by Night

Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

Garth Davis, Lion

Ana DuVernay, The 13th

Clint Eastwood, Sully

Gareth Edwards, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

David Frankel, Collateral Beauty

Stephen Gaghan, Gold

John Lee Hancock, The Founder

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Ken Loach, I, Daniel Blake

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water

John Madden, Miss Sloane

Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures

Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Jeff Nichols, Loving

Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

Rob Reiner, LBJ

Tate Taylor, The Girl on the Train

Morten Tyldum, Passengers

Denis Villenueve, Arrival

Ben Younger, Bleed for This

Robert Zemeckis, Allied

Best Picture tomorrow!