Tag: Telluride Film Festival

97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 14th Edition

To say there’s been plenty of news since my last predictions post on 09/03 is quite an understatement. It’s been confirmed that Clint Eastwood’s thriller Juror No. 2 will release in this calendar year. You’ll see that reflected below though I don’t have the movie or Toni Collette (in Supporting Actress) or the screenplay actually projected for nominations.

Then there is, of course, more screenings from the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. While Nightbitch is probably out of Best Picture contention, TIFF screenings suggest Amy Adams could still be a threat to make the Actress quintet. She’s back in my five. I had to make room anyway since Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) appears to be a supporting play and not lead. I hesitated to put Adams back in as Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) are serious threats. For that, so are Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and Demi Moore (The Substance). It’s getting crowded in Actress.

Speaking of Joker, the mixed reaction from Cannes causes it to drop from 11th to 20th in my BP rankings.

There are gains for The Brutalist as it rises from 3rd to 1st in the BP derby. The announcement that A24 picked up it up for distribution might mean it’s now their #1 campaign. If so, that could have a detrimental effect on Sing Sing. That helps explain Adrien Brody getting to first in Best Actor over Colman Domingo. Clarence Maclin from Sing Sing stays at #1 in Supporting Actor over The Brutalist‘s Guy Pearce though I considered making that switch. And now Brady Corbet now sitting atop the charts in Director. Blitz had previously held the #1 positions in BP and Director but they slip to #2.

In Supporting Actress, two changes as Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) are in and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) are on the outside looking in.

And for the one change in BP, Venice’s Golden Lion winner The Room Next Door is in the 10 with A Complete Unknown falling out.

Please note that this update is the first time where Dune: Part Two is not the nomination leader. It’s now tied with 9 with Blitz and Emilia Pérez while The Brutalist sits with 10.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-2)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)

12. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (-1)

14. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (+2)

15. Queer (PR: 14) (-1)

16. September 5 (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Nosferatu (PR: 17) (E)

18. The Apprentice (PR: 22) (+4)

19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 19) (E)

20. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-9)

21. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (-3)

22. Wicked (PR: 21) (-1)

23. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

24. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

25. A Different Man (PR: 25) (E)

Dropped Out:

Nightbitch

Maria

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

12. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-1)

13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 13) (E)

14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux – moved to supporting

Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)

14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (E)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

André Holland, The Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

9. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Kathy Burke, Blitz

Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)

14. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 15) (+1)

Dropped Out:

Stephen Graham, Blitz

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 9) (+2)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 14) (+2)

13. September 5 (PR: 11) (-2)

14. A Different Man (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Challengers

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-1)

10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Gladiator II (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

The Fire Inside

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (E)

5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Universal Language (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Count of Monte Cristo

Cloud

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)

5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Savages (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

2. No Other Land (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Union (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 9) (E)

10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+4)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Anora (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Queer

Maria

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Queer

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

7. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-6)

9. Queer (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Challengers

Blitz

Nickel Boys

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Why Am I Here?” from Shirley (PR: 8) (-1)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux

“Compress/Repress” from Challengers

“Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Conclave (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+2)

7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Civil War

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Twisters (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (E)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wicked (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Alien: Romulus

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

10 Nominations

The Brutalist

9 Nominations

Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Gladiator II

4 Nominations

Conclave, Nosferatu

3 Nominations

The Room Next Door, Saturday Night

2 Nominations

Maria, Nickel Boys, Queer, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

All We Imagine as Light, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked

Oscar Predictions: Better Man

If you see one biopic this year where the subject is primarily played by a CG monkey, some reviews are saying Better Man is that film. Michael Gracey’s follow-up to his smash hit musical The Greatest Showman premiered at Telluride before traveling to Toronto. It chronicles the life of Take That singer Robbie Williams and, yes, he’s portrayed as a motion-capture simian. Jonno Davies handles some voiceover work as the crooner with Alison Steadman and Steve Pemberton in the supporting cast.

Hitting theaters stateside in a limited fashion on Christmas Day, critics are claiming this is an unconventional and gimmicky genre piece. Most are also saying it kinda pulls it off as far as entertainment value goes. The RT score is 85%. Paramount could make a push for Better Man to be included in the Visual Effects derby thanks to that monkey. I doubt it contends anywhere else. This is likely a case where if it makes the shortlist of hopefuls in VE, it probably gets in. Getting there could be tricky. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Friend

The Friend played Telluride and is about to hit Toronto and the dramedy has found some allies already. Based on the novel by Sigrid Nunez, the team known as Siegel & McGehee direct. They are known for indie pics such as The Deep End, What Maisie Knew, and Montana Story. Naomi Watts is a writer caring for her late mentor’s dog. Supporting work comes from Bill Murray (as said mentor), Sarah Pidgeon, Constance Wu, Ann Dowd, Owen Teague, and Carla Gugino. There’s also what’s said to be a terrific performance by Great Dane Bing as Apollo.

Several critics, while saying The Friend is formulaic, also say it often rises above similar doggie tales. Early buzz indicates it earns the tears of audience members. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% with Metacritic at 70.

Still seeking domestic distribution, it remains to be seen whether this makes the 2024 cut. If so, Watts is getting plenty of applause. She’s a two-time nominee for 2003’s 21 Grams and 2012’s The Impossible. Becoming a contender isn’t an impossibility, but it is a stretch. There’s no Best Canine category so Bing doesn’t need his tux pressed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The End

Joshua Oppenheimer is best known for his Oscar nominated and acclaimed documentaries The Act of Killing and The Look of Silence, but he’s in fictional territory with The End. The post-apocalyptic musical (you read it right) premiered at Telluride and is en route to Toronto. Focused on a rich family in their underground bunker, the cast includes Tilda Swinton, George MacKay, Moses Ingram (said to be a scene stealer), and Michael Shannon.

Reviews out of Colorado are varied with some saying it doesn’t quite hit its satirical aims. Even if it releases stateside by the end of the year, I doubt this will be on the Academy’s radar. For Swinton, she’s got a Supporting Actress chance elsewhere in The Room Next Door. Oppenheimer’s non-doc debut? Don’t expect it to be, well, Oppenheimer. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 3rd Edition

You can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but you can alter your Oscar Predictions and such is the case with Nightbitch. For many weeks, I’ve had Amy Adams perched atop my Best Actress list. The six-time nominee has to get the gold sometime right? After today’s first look, I don’t think this is the vehicle. Perhaps the Toronto Film Festival (where this screens in days) will prove me wrong.

Speaking of festivals, you might have heard that Telluride just concluded as Venice is at its midpoint. As both events tend to do, the awards landscape has been altered due to their premieres. Some pics and performers have risen while others have fallen.

The biggest winner at the time of this publication seems to be Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice. The three hour plus Holocaust survivor drama vaults 20 spots from #23 to #3 in my Best Picture rankings with Corbet in for his direction and Adrien Brody returning to the Actor derby. Mr. Brody knocks out Sebastian Stan in A Different Man. Speaking of Stan, he will also be vying for attention as Donald Trump in The Apprentice. It was confirmed this week that it will be released in October.

Another benefactor, this one from Telluride, is Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night. The solid reaction in Colorado puts it (barely) in my BP hopefuls along with Original Screenplay and Film Editing recognition.

The inclusion of these two newbies knocks out two others that didn’t fare quite as well in their unveilings – Queer and The Piano Lesson. They are both still listed in Other Possibilities but are no longer picks to make the big dance.

Three of the four acting races have new #1s. While Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) is still first in Actor (with Ralph Fiennes from Conclave and Adrien Brody hot on his heels), the aforementioned Adams plummets in Actress. In her place? Mikey Madison from Anora though Angelina Jolie (Maria) and Karla Sofia Gascón are close behind. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) makes her first appearance in the quintet. Please note that Folie will screen in Venice tomorrow so we’ll know more then (keep an eye on the blog for its individual predictions post).

In Supporting Actress, my previous #1 Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) slides three positions with Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) moving up. Her costar Selena Gomez is now in my five as well and that takes out Tilda Swinton in The Room Next Door. I will say deciding between Gomez and Swinton for the 5 spot was basically a coin flip.

The news for Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson) and his chances are worse. He goes from 1st to 9th with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) back at one. Guy Pearce in The Brutalist, who would be a first-time nominee, rockets from 15th to 2nd in the race and Stanley Tucci (Conclave) reenters over his costar John Lithgow.

You can read all the movement – and there is plenty of movement indeed – below and my next update will likely come Sunday as more Venice titles screen and Toronto begins!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 23) (+20)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (+2)

12. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (+8)

13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Queer (PR: 7) (-7)

15. The Room Next Door (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Gladiator II (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (-2)

18. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-9)

19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 22) (+3)

20. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-6)

21. Wicked (PR: 21) (E)

22. The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

23. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

24. Maria (PR: 18) (-6)

25. A Different Man (PR: 24) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Hard Truths

The End

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)

9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)

10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 7) (-6)

14. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (-6)

8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-2)

13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 11) (+8)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (-3)

9. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Paul Mescal. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-7)

14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 13) (E)

14. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Valeria Golino, Maria

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 15) (+13)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (-8)

10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

11. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 9) (-5)

15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 3) (-12)

Dropped Out:

Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Saturday Night (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 14) (+9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

11. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

12. The Substance (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Challengers (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (-1)

15. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The End

Maria

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Queer (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Hit Man (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (-1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (E)

13. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (-2)

7. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Universal Language (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Evil Does Not Exist

Simon of the Mountain

Uprising

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)

5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Savages (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7 (E)

8. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Orion and the Dark (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Most Precious of Cargoes

Transformers One

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (+1)

4. No Other Land (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 3) (-3)

7. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Union

Gaucho Gaucho

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Anora (PR: 8) (E)

9. Queer (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Conclave

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Challengers (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

A Complete Unknown

Queer

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maria (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Sasquatch Sunset

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Challengers (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

Here

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 8) (+2)

7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Wicked

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Conclave (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Queer

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+2)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (E)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

A Quiet Place: Day One

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Twisters (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 6) (-4)

And that works out to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Blitz

8 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

The Brutalist

6 Nominations

Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Conclave

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, Saturday Night

2 Nominations

Maria, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

Black Box Diaries, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

Oscar Predictions: Nickel Boys

Based on Colson Whitehead’s 2019 bestseller, the 1960s set racial drama Nickel Boys has been unveiled at Telluride before its October 25th limited theatrical bow. From RaMell Ross (best known for the Oscar nominated 2018 documentary Hale County This Morning, Evening), Boys will stream on Amazon Prime after the awards qualifying run. Ethan Herisse, Brandon Wilson, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Fred Hechinger, Hamish Linklater, and Daveed Diggs star.

Some early reaction from Colorado indicates this is one of the year’s best. That’s not across the board. The pic is apparently told from first person perspective and the style is being lauded and criticized depending on the write-up. Surprisingly, initial reviews are not spending much time on the cast. I’ve had Ellis-Taylor (a 2021 Supporting Actress nominee for King Richard) listed at #1 in my Supporting Actress nominees for a few weeks. She could still get in depending on the competition, but she may drop out of my projected quintet altogether (update later today on this blog!). Newcomer Herisse faces long odds in Actor due to growing competition and no other performers seem primed to receive chatter.

Boys could still have enough vocal admirers that Best Picture is doable along with Adapted Screenplay and even the cinematography despite some gripes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: September 5

Tim Fehlbaum’s September 5 covers similar ground as Steven Spielberg’s 2005 Best Picture nominee Munich regarding the 1972 Olympics hostage crisis. This version, which premiered at Venice and made its way over to Telluride, tells it from the perspective of the ABC broadcasting crew covering the games. John Magaro, Peter Sarsgaard, Ben Chaplin, and Leonie Benesch star.

Reviews from Italy and Colorado are impressive as the pic has emerged as a festival sleeper in recent days. Part of its flying under the radar status is the current lack of a stateside distributor. That should change soon. The question is whether September 5 gets dated for a 2024 release or if the buyer waits for 2025 consideration. Either way, I wouldn’t sleep on its chances for Picture, Original Screenplay, and Editing if it is granted a serious campaign. In 2003, Sarsgaard likely barely missed the Supporting Actor cut for Shattered Glass. Of the main cast, he might receive the heftiest push as legendary sports executive Roone Arledge. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Saturday Night

Jason Reitman had a one-two punch of consecutive Best Picture nominees with Juno and Up in the Air in 2007 and 2009. Some follow-ups generated solid reviews (Young Adult, Tully) while others (Labor Day, The Front Runner) drew more mixed reactions. None have received significant awards buzz in the past decade and a half. Will that change with Saturday Night?

The Sony Pictures dramedy is slated for release on October 11th which is the 49th anniversary of the iconic sketch show it celebrates. This recounts the chaotic moments leading up to the premiere of Saturday Night Live. Gabriel LaBelle (who essentially played young Steven Spielberg in 2022’s The Fabelmans) is 30-year-old Lorne Michaels. The extensive supporting cast (some playing 1975 legends with others as future legends) includes Cooper Hoffman, Rachel Sennott, Cory Michael Smith, Ella Hunt, Dylan O’Brien, Emily Fairn, Matt Wood, Lamorne Morris, Kim Matula, Finn Wolfhard, Nicholas Braun (as Andy Kaufman and Jim Henson), Andrew Barth Feldman, Willem Dafoe, Matthew Rhys, J.K. Simmons, and Jon Batiste.

Having just played Telluride and hitting Toronto shortly, early word-of-mouth is primarily on the fresh side. There are some high profile reviews of the thumbs down variety. I would say Saturday Night stands a shot at a Best Picture nomination, but it is a coin flip at the moment as we await how competitors pan out. Down ballot categories like Costume Design and (especially) Film Editing could occur especially if it sneaks into BP.

As for the cast, LaBelle is getting quality ink. Yet some of the strongest notices are going to Sennott as writer Rosie Schuster and Smith as Chevy Chase. I’m skeptical any of the performers break into their respective categories though the SAG Awards could certainly nominate the cast in their Ensemble race. Speaking of other shows, the Golden Globes could put it up for Musical/Comedy assuming Sony campaigns for it there and LaBelle could make the Actor (Musical/Comedy) quintet.

At the Academy Awards, there is almost always a picture or two that is up solely for its screenplay. This is a distinct possibility with Saturday Night and its original screenplay from Reitman and Gil Kenan. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Piano Lesson

The Piano Lesson is the third adaptation of an August Wilson play in the past decade seeking Oscar glory. This is a Washington family affair with siblings Malcolm directing and John David headlining. Their father Denzel is a producer. Piano has played at Telluride (with Toronto next) before its limited November 8th theatrical release and November 22nd Netflix premiere. Cast members include Samuel L. Jackson, Ray Fisher, Michael Potts, Erykah Badu, Corey Hawkins, and Danielle Deadwyler.

Early reviews are decent with some gripes about its stagey nature. Before we get to its awards chances, let’s take a look at how fellow Wilson adaptations Fences in 2016 and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom in 2020 performed. Fences, directed by Denzel, landed four nominations: Picture, Denzel in Actor, Viola Davis in Supporting Actress for which she won, and Adapted Screenplay. Ma Rainey managed five mentions for Actor (Chadwick Boseman), Actress (Viola Davis), Costume Design (where it took gold), Makeup & Hairstyling (another victory), and Production Design.

With that track record, Piano has rightfully been viewed as a serious contender in numerous races. This weekend’s buzz solidifies some of that chatter while muddying other possibilities. Danielle Deadwyler appears to be the cast’s standout. It is not yet known if Netflix will campaign for her in lead or supporting though the latter seems more likely. If they do, a nod seems close to assured and that would come two years after she was snubbed in Actress for Till.

For weeks, I’ve had Samuel L. Jackson listed in 1st place in Supporting Actor. Despite a career with a lengthy list of highlights, his sole nom came 30 years ago for Pulp Fiction. Now I’m not even sure he makes the cut as his costar Ray Fisher is getting equally strong ink. Jackson could make the final quintet. However, I suspect I’ll at least drop him from the top slot. John David Washington faces longer odds in lead Actor, but let’s see how crowded that competition becomes.

Best Picture is a question mark. I think it could make it in though it would be at the bottom of the 10 hopefuls and may miss altogether. Down the line techs like Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, and Production Design (the ones Rainey received) could happen with Adapted Screenplay in the mix. One must wonder if Netflix decides to push Emilia Pérez as their #1 option and the answer is probably yes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Piece by Piece

Morgan Neville’s Piece by Piece looks to build awards momentum at the Telluride and Toronto festivals before its October 11th domestic bow. The unique documentary is a biopic of musician Pharrell Williams told via Lego animation. It includes interviews (Lego style) with artists its subject has collaborated with including Jay-Z, Justin Timberlake, Gwen Stefani, Snoop Dogg, Kendrick Lamar, and Busta Rhymes.

2013’s 20 Feet from Stardom from Neville (focused on background singers) took home the Oscar for Documentary Feature. Five years later, his Mister Rogers doc Won’t You Be My Neighbor? was widely expected to be nominated and ended up snubbed.

Piece by Piece is a head scratcher. Focus Features will surely campaign for it in Animated Feature and Documentary Feature. Early reviews are mostly complimentary though not gushing. I think it stands a stronger chance in Animated Feature. However, competition is real with titles such as Inside Out 2, The Wild Robot, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Flow, Moana 2, and Memoir of a Snail. The mishmash’s best chance at recognition could be one of its original songs where Pharrell has competed before with “Happy” from Despicable Me 2.