Tag: Taraji P. Henson

2023 Oscar Predictions: August 16th Edition

It’s looking like Netflix is going all in on Bradley Cooper’s Maestro being their main contender for awards love in 2023. With its first trailer out this week, the biopic is the biggest riser in Best Picture. Additionally, Carey Mulligan joins the Best Actress field with Annette Bening (Nyad) falling out.

Supporting Actress also sees a change as Viola Davis (Air) is back in over Rosamud Pike for Saltburn. It’s not a good update for Emerald Fennell’s sophomore feature as it also drops from BP with Poor Things returning.

In another significant development, Cillian Murphy’s work in Oppenheimer rises to #1 in Best Actor for the first time over Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon).

You can expect one more update at month’s end before the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto festivals arrive and dramatically reshape the race. That’s where we’ll catch our first glimpses and see first reactions to many contenders. They include Maestro, Poor Things, Rustin, The Killer, Ferrari, Priscilla, El Conde, Dumb Money, Nyad, Lee, One Life, Next Goal Wins, and more.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maestro (PR: 8) (+3)

6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Saltburn (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Air (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)

14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Ferrari (PR: 18) (+2)

17. The Killer (PR: 16) (-1)

18. Asteroid City (PR: 19) (+1)

19. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+1)

20. May December (PR: 17) (-3)

21. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (+1)

23. The Piano Lesson (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Rustin (PR: 21) (-3)

25. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bob Marley: One Love

Priscilla

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (E)

13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)

14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)

15. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wes Anderson, Asteroid City

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (E)

13. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)

15. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Emily Blunt, Pain Hustlers

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (E)

11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (E)

14. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)

9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Helena Bonham Carter, One Life (PR: 13) (+2)

1.2 Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12 ) (-1)

14. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Audra McDonald, Rustin

America Ferrera, Barbie

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)

8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (E)

9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Glynn Turman, Rustin

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Saltburn (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Air (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Fair Play (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Rustin (PR: 10 (E)

11. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-2)

12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 15) (+3)

13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 11) (-2)

14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)

15. A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bob Marley: One Love

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-3)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. BlackBerry (PR: 10) (+2)

9. One Life (PR: 14) (+5)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9) (-2)

12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)

14. The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Killer (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Ferrari

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)

4. Monster (PR: 4) (E)

5.The Taste of Things (formerly The Pot-Au-Feu) (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fallen Leaves (PR: 8) (+1)

8. El Conde (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Delinquents (PR: 9) (E)

10. La Chimera (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Nimona (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Robot Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)

3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Every Body (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wild Life (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Black Ice (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Kokomo City

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 10) (+6)

5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Chevalier (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Ferrari (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Killer (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Glaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Priscilla (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Golda (PR: 8) (E)

9. Beau is Afraid (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Color Purple

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Napoleon

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+5)

5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)

7. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Maestro (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+6)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Creator (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wonka (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blue Beetle (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Barbie

That means I’m projecting these numbers of nominations for these films:

12 Nominations

Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

7 Nominations

Barbie, Maestro

6 Nominations

The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things

5 Nominations

The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon

2 Nominations

Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, Ferrari, May December, Monster, Priscilla, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

2023 Oscar Predictions: August 2nd Edition

The box office and critical phenomenon known as Barbenheimer looms large over my first August Oscar predictions. I toyed with moving Oppenheimer and its maker Christopher Nolan to the #1 spots in BP and Director. They sit in second with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon clinging to the top. On the other hand, Robert Downey Jr.’s work in Oppenheimer is now first over Robert De Niro from Killers.

Meanwhile, I have finally put Barbie in my ten BP contenders and that takes out Air. While it materializes in the big race, I’m still keeping Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie out of Director and Actress, respectively.

We are a month away from the triumvirate of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. They will undoubtedly shape and alter what you read below. Here’s where I believe it stands right now.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maestro (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Poor Things (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Air (PR: 9) (-3)

13. The Holdovers (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Napoleon (PR: 15) (E)

16. The Killer (PR: 21) (+5)

17. May December (PR: 15) (-1)

18. Ferrari (PR: 22) (+4)

19. Asteroid City (PR: 17) (-2)

20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 18) (-2)

21. Rustin (PR: 19) (-2)

22. The Piano Lesson (PR: 20) (-2)

23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)

24. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

BlackBerry

The Book of Clarence

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5 (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (E)

12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (E)

13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)

14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)

15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (E)

13. Emily Blunt, Pain Hustlers (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)

15. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Judy Greer, Eric Larue

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+4)

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)

10. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 11) (E)

12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (E)

13. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 7) (-7)

15. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

David Strathairn, A Little Prayer

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)

10. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)

11. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

14. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (-1)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)

8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Matt Bomer, Maestro

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saltburn (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)

4. Air (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Napoleon (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Rustin (PR: 9) (-1)

11. The Book of Clarence (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Fair Play (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Drive Away Dolls

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (E)

9. Next Goal Wins (PR: 13) (+4)

10. BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)

11. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (+1)

12. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (-2)

13. The Killer (PR: 11) (-2)

14. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dumb Money

Freud’s Last Session

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Monster (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Pot-Au-Feu (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (E)

7. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Fallen Leaves (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)

10. La Chimera (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Perfect Days

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nimona (PR: 6) (E)

7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Robot Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)

3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 6) (+3)

4. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 4) (E)

5. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Every Body (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Eternal Memory (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Wild Life (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Kokomo City (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Black Ice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

It Ain’t Over

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Killer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Poor Things (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Ferrari (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Chevalier (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wonka (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Air (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Killer (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Napoleon

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Barbie (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Priscilla (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Golda (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (E)

10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)

5. Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Killer (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Poor Things

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ferrari (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Creator (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wonka (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Poor Things

Spaceman

That equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

8 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

The Color Purple, Past Lives

6 Nominations

Poor Things

4 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest

3 Nominations

Maestro

2 Nominations

Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, About Dry Grasses, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Ferrari, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songsbirds and Snakes, May December, Monster, The Mother of All Lies, Nyad, The Pot-Au-Feu, Rustin, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

2023 Oscar Predictions: July 22nd Edition

It is the weekend of “Barbenheimer” as Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer are posting fantastic results at the box office. With their review embargoes lifted, the always to be inextricably linked pics have established themselves as Oscar players.

When I did my previous predictions two weeks ago, one of the questions centered on which performers could be singled out for recognition. Obviously we knew about Cillian Murphy and Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling’s supporting turn, but what else? The answer it seems is Robert Downey Jr. and Emily Blunt for Oppenheimer and maybe America Ferrera for Barbie. Matt Damon is still worth mentioning for Oppenheimer, but Downey Jr. clearly has the most significant buzz.

And… surprise! This is the first write-up where I am including all races covering feature-length motion pictures. I do so at a precarious time. While “Barbenheimer” is viable in many competitions, the release calendar for the remainder of 2023 is unpredictable.

That is, of course, due to the SAG-AFTRA strike and a fear that it could drag on for weeks or months. On Friday, Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers gave up its prime spot opening the Venice Film Festival and moved from September to April 2024. If you believe it’ll be the last movie to do so, think again. There’s already rumors that Dune: Part Two and/or The Color Purple (two potential heavy hitters) could move to ’24. I am keeping all currently scheduled titles in the mix until I hear different. Just know that some of the projects listed below may not be here for long.

Sometimes a trailer can either boost your hopes for a film’s awards potential or dilute it. I could be wrong, but Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers is an example of the latter when its first look was revealed this week. Soon enough we’ll see if my first impression was on the money.

For these initial projections covering all races, I’ll keep it at 25 possibilities for BP and 15 for the other top of the line derbies (the four acting ones and two screenplay contests). For all others, I will list my top 10.

With all that said, let’s get into it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Air (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Maestro (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Barbie (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Poor Things (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Napoleon (PR: 16) (+1)

16. May December (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Rustin (PR: 21) (+2)

20. The Piano Lesson (PR: 19) (-1)

21. The Killer (PR: 25) (+4)

22. Ferrari (PR: 24) (+2)

23. BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)

24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (-1)

25. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Challengers

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-4)

14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Ben Affleck, Air

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)

15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Zendaya, Challengers

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)

10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Andre Holland, The Actor

Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-3)

12. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer

Tilda Swinton, The Killer

Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love

Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Jesse Plemons, Killers. of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Richard E. Grant, Saltburn

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saltburn (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Air (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rustin (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Napoleon (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Drive Away Dolls (PR: 13) (+2)

12. The Book of Clarence (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Fair Play (PR: 11) (-3)

15. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Challengers

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barbie (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (E)

9. BlackBerry (PR: 14) (+5)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

11. The Killer (PR: 15) (+4)

12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest

2. Anatomy of a Fall

3. Monster

4. About Dry Grasses

5. The Pot-au-Feu

Other Possibilities:

6. The Boy and the Heron

7. Perfect Days

8. The Delinquents

9. Fallen Leaves

10. La Chimera

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2. The Boy and the Heron

3. Elemental

4. Wish

5. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Other Possibilities:

6. Nimona

7. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

8. Robot Dreams

9. The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

3. The Eternal Memory

4. The Mother of All Lies

5. Wild Life

Other Possibilities:

6. 20 Days in Mariupol

7. Every Body

8. Kokomo City

9. Black Ice

10. It Ain’t Over

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Napoleon

5. The Color Purple

Other Possibilities:

6. The Killer

7. Poor Things

8. The Zone of Interest

9. Ferrari

10. Asteroid City

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie

2. Dune: Part Two

3. The Color Purple

4. Poor Things

5. Killers of the Flower Moon

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon

7. Chevalier

8. Oppenheimer

9. Wonka

10. Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Oppenheimer

4. Past Lives

5. Air

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple

7. Saltburn

8. Maestro

9. The Killer

10. Napoleon

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Poor Things

3. Maestro

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

5. Barbie

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon

7. Golda

8. Beau is Afraid

9. The Color Purple

10. Priscilla

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Dune: Part Two

4. Elemental

5. Past Lives

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

8. Napoleon

9. The Zone of Interest

10. The Killer

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from “The Color Purple”

2. “The Wish” from Wish

3. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

4. “Just Ken” from Barbie

5. TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Other Possibilities:

6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady

7. “Steal the Show” from Elemental

8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie

9. “Quiet Eyes” From Past Lives

10. “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Oppenheimer

4. Poor Things

5. Napoleon

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie

7. Asteroid City

8. The Zone of Interest

9. The Color Purple

10. Wonka

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Napoleon

4. Killers of the Flower Moon

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Other Possibilities:

6. Ferrari

7. The Color Purple

8. Maestro

9. The Zone of Interest

10. The Killer

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Oppenheimer

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

4. The Creator

5. Wonka

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon

7. Killers of the Flower Moon

8. Poor Things

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

10. Spaceman

And that, ladies and gents, gives us the following number of nominations for these pictures:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

8 Nominations

The Color Purple

7 Nominations

Past Lives

6 Nominations

Barbie

5 Nominations

Poor Things

4 Nominations

Air, Anatomy of a Fall

3 Nominations

Maestro, Napoleon, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest

2 Nominations

Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

About Dry Grasses, The Boy and the Heron, Beyond Utopia, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, Long Day’s Journey Into Night, May December, Monster, The Mother of All Lies, The Pot-au-Feu, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wild Life, Wonka

2023 Oscar Predictions: July 9th Edition

The first July predictions for the 96th Academy Awards shall be known as the pre Barbie and Oppenheimer edition. They are eagerly awaited efforts from Greta Gerwig and Christopher Nolan, respectively, that are hoping to become giant blockbusters and awards players. July 21st marks the release date for both. When my next forecast arrives in a couple of weeks, reviews and buzz and financial numbers for the pair will be available.

Since June 25th (my previous update), there’s not been too much news. We have some new trailers including Bob Marley: One Love with Kingsley Ben-Adir as the iconic reggae singer. Interestingly all the promotional materials are advertising a January 12th premiere. I’m still assuming it will get a December limited release to qualify for contention. It is something worth keeping an eye on. I will say that I found the trailer to be somewhat lackluster. With the release date confusion, I’ve taken it out of my top 25 in BP while keeping Ben-Adir and Lashana Lynch in their acting derbies.

Frequent readers will know that releases dates are always shifting. I’m putting The Piano Lesson back in the mix even though it might not be out until 2024. You’ll see it emerge back into several competitions below.

Festivals are beginning to tease their lineups. Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers will open Venice in September while Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins is tapped for Toronto. Expect plenty more announcement in the coming days and weeks.

In Best Actor, I’ve elevated Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) to #1 over Colman Domingo. That puts Killers atop the charts in Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay. We’ll see how long its dominance lasts as other heavy hitters screen over the next few months.

As we await the Barbie and Oppenheimer reactions, here’s my speculation as to where everything stands for the eight top categories.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Poor Things (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Air (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)

12. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Barbie (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 12) (-2)

15. May December (PR: 15) (E)

16. Napoleon (PR: 18) (+2)

17. Challengers (PR: 17) (E)

18. Asteroid City (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)

21. Rustin (PR: 20) (-1)

22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 23) (+1)

23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Ferrari (PR: 24) (E)

25. The Killer (PR: 21) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Bob Marley: One Love

How Do You Live?

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 13) (E)

14. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)

15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

David Fincher, The Killer

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)

7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: 15) (+3)

13. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Halle Bailey, The Color Purple

Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Claire Foy, Strangers

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mike Faist, Challengers

Josh O’Connor, Challengers

Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saltburn (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Air (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Rustin (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)

12. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Drive-Away Dolls (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie (moved to Adapted)

Bob Marley: One Love

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)

11. The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 10) (-3)

14. BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Killer (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Strangers

The Bikeriders

The Boys in the Boat

Dumb Money

2023 Oscar Predictions: June 25th Edition

For my last forecast for the month of June, not a lot has changed in my predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. Viola Davis (Air) is back in Supporting Actress over Julianne Moore (May December). In the screenplay contests, I’ve elevated Anatomy of a Fall over May December in the original derby. For Adapted Screenplay, Oppenheimer jumps into the top five over Poor Things. It is worth noting that while I don’t have animated box office behemoth Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse in my BP ten, it does jump seven positions to number 12.

When I do my initial July projections in a couple of weeks, we might have some buzz for potential heavy hitters Oppenheimer and Barbie as they each ready their debuts on July 21st.

We have seen our first peeks at fall contenders such as Challengers, Priscilla, Drive-Away Dolls, and Dumb Money over the past few days via their trailers. Truth be told, this is a slow time for awards prognosticating. This will change before we know it with festival season around the corner.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+1)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Air (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Poor Things (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)

12. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 19) (+7)

13. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Barbie (PR: 15) (+1)

15. May December (PR: 12) (-3)

16. Asteroid City (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Challengers (PR: 13) (-4)

18. Napoleon (PR: 15) (-3)

19. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 23) (+4)

20. Rustin (PR: 22) (+2)

21. The Killer (PR: 20) (-1)

22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+2)

23. The Book of Clarence (PR: 18) (-5)

24. Ferrari (PR: 25) (+1)

25. How Do You Live? (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Flint Strong (moved to 2024)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E()

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)

15. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Todd Haynes, May December

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (E)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12 )(E)

13. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest

Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)

10. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 10) (E)

11. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Mike Faist, Challengers (moved to Supporting Actor)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)

13. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 13) (E)

14. Josh O’Connor, Challengers (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong

Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Saltburn (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Air (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. May December (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Adapted)

10. Challengers (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Drive-Away Dolls (PR: 2) (+1)

12. Rustin (PR: 11) (-1)

13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 14) (E)

15. Napoleon (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Monster

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (+2)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Strangers (PR: 12) (+1)

12. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

13. The Bikeriders (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Boys in the Boat (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie (moved to Original)

Flint Strong

Ferrari

2023 Oscar Predictions: June 14th Edition

My mid-June look at the major races for the 96th Academy Awards adds the screenplay competitions to the mix. In them, my top picks for Best Picture (Killers of the Flower Moon and Past Lives) lead their respective writing categories.

Truth be told, we’re in a bit of a lull for significant awards buzz. The Cannes Film Festival is over and the key fall fests (Toronto, Venice, Telluride) are nearly three months out.

In July, we will have two potential heavyweights unveiled in Oppenheimer and Barbie. At this juncture, a lot of my speculation is simply deciding whether certain features are even released in 2023. We might not see Ana DuVernay’s Caste, Steve McQueen’s Blitz, or Malcolm Washington’s The Piano Lesson until 2024. That’s why I currently have them out of the mix.

One item that has materialized in the past couple of weeks is the release of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. The acclaimed animated sequel has established itself as at least a candidate for BP consideration. There’s no doubt it’s the current frontrunner for Animated Feature.

You can peruse all the movement below and I’ll have another update posted in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

6. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Poor Things (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Air (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saltburn (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro (PR: 12) (+1)

12. May December (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Challengers (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Barbie (PR: 16) (+1)

16. Napoleon (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Asteroid City (PR: 24) (+7)

18. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (+4)

19. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)

20. The Killer (PR: 23) (+3)

21. Flint Strong (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Rustin (PR: 18) (-4)

23. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 20) (-3)

24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 21) (-3)

25. Ferrari (PR: 25) (E)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)

10. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR:11) (-1)

13. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Todd Haynes, May December (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Steve McQueen, Blitz

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 13) (E)

14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)

15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: Not Ranked)

Droped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

Jane Levy, A Little Prayer

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 4) (E)

5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (E)

9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 14) (+2)

13. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Supporing Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (E)

8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)

9. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Josh O’Connor, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives

2. Air

3. The Holdovers

4. Saltburn

5. May December

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City

7. Challengers

8. Maestro

9. Anatomy of a Fall

10. The Book of Clarence

11. Rustin

12. Drive Away Dolls

13. Napoleon

14. Bob Marley: One Love

15. Monster

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Poor Things

3. The Color Purple

4. The Zone of Interest

5. Dune: Part Two

Other Possibilities:

6. Oppenheimer

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

8. Barbie

9. The Nickel Boys

10. Flint Strong

11. Freud’s Last Session

12. Strangers

13. The Bikeriders

14. Ferrari

15. The Boys in the Boat

2023 Oscar Predictions: May 29th Edition

As the month of May closes out, we arrive at my post Cannes forecast for the 96th Academy Awards! There were heavy hitters premiering in the south of France and buzz to discuss for several of them.

One year ago, Triangle of Sadness took the Palme d’Or (the fest’s top prize) and it eventually became a Best Picture contender at the Oscars. Ruben Östlund, Triangle‘s director who served as this year’s jury president, was also nominated for his behind the camera work.. In 2023, Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall won the biggest honor. The French courtroom drama established itself as a major factor in International Feature Film and it is feasible that it could nab a slot in the eventual BP ten.

Other films that solidified their statuses as Academy bait? We start with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. The three and a half hour epic maintains its #1 position in Picture, Director, Supporting Actress (Lily Gladstone), and Supporting Actor after many raves at Cannes. However, the Supporting Actor in first is Robert De Niro and not Jesse Plemons, who was perched there two weeks ago. Reviews indicate it’s De Niro who should have the better shot.

Let’s be clear. My rankings right now reflect who I believe will be nominated and not necessarily who I think will win (it’s simply too early for that). Killers looks to be in a fantastic position for multiples nods after its unveiling.

Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest is right behind Moon as far as significant chatter out of the festival. The Holocaust drama could contend in Pic and Director. So could lead actress Sandra Hüller. Yet she might have an even stronger chance for her performance in Anatomy of a Fall.

For May December from Todd Haynes, reviews were quite solid. Its best chances at inclusion could be for its trio of actors Natalie Portman, Julianne Moore, and Charles Melton. We’re still not sure if Portman and Moore will be co-campaigned for lead. For now I’m slotting the former in Actress and the latter in supporting.

Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City drew plaudits though mixed reaction elsewhere. I’m skeptical of its chances (though it could play in down-the-line races like Production Design and Score).

Then there’s the features that dropped out of contention. Pixar’s Elemental won’t be the first studio title to vie for BP since Toy Story 3. It might be lucky to get an Animated Feature mention after some lackluster reaction. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny will not be a Top Gun: Maverick style hopeful for Oscars. And the fest’s opener Jeanne du Barry with Johnny Depp might get a Costume Design nod and that’s all.

In 2022, I made predictions for the 95th Academy Awards on this same day. It yielded 3 of the eventual 10 BP nominees with eventual winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and Women Talking. Four others (Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick) were named in Other Possibilities. I wasn’t ready to anoint Triangle of Sadness despite its Cannes hardware. In Director – I correctly named the victorious Daniels for Everything Everywhere and Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. With Best Actress, I had Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere) who would take the gold. Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Ana de Armas (Blonde) were Other Possibilities. I will note that I had Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) listed in supporting and she was nominated in lead. For Actor, winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale) were correctly called with Austin Butler (Elvis) listed. Both Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun) were Other Possibilities. None of the five contenders in Supporting Actress were rightly placed. I did have winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere), her costar Stephanie Hsu, and Hong Chau (The Whale) in Other Possibilities. Finally, Ke Huy Quan (who took the statue) for Everything Everywhere was the only correctly tagged performer in Supporting Actor.

OK… deep breath. With all that context, let’s see where everything and everyone ranks…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)

6. Saltburn (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 15) (+8)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Air (PR: 9) (E)

10. Poor Things (PR: 6) (-4)

Other Possibilities:

11. May December (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Maestro (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Challengers (PR: 14) (E)

15. Blitz (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Barbie (PR: 12) (-4)

17. Napoleon (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Rustin (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Flint Strong (PR: 17) (-2)

20. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 16) (-4)

21. The Nickel Boys (PR: 21) (E)

22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (E)

23. The Killer (PR: 19) (-4)

24. Asteroid City (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Ferrari (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Strangers

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 14) (+9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Todd Haynes, May December

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (E)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (E)

13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 13) (E)

14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)

15. Jane Levy, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Regina King, Shirley

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (E)

11. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)

15. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Scott, Strangers

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (E)

12. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (E)

14. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 14) (E)

15. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Claire Foy, Strangers

Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+4)

5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilties:

6. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-9)

11. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, Maestro

2023 Oscar Predictions: May 14th Edition

My second round of ranked predictions in the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards comes two days before the 76th Annual Cannes Film Festival gets underway in the south of France. It will conclude on May 27th and you can expect my third round of forecasts shortly thereafter.

At Cannes, we will receive our first reviews and buzz for numerous heavy hitters. Those pictures include Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, May December from Todd Haynes, Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City, Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, Monster from Hirokazu Kore-eda, Firebrand with Alicia Vikander, Pixar’s Elemental, and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

Here is my pre-Cannes outlook on Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies and let’s see how this gets shook up in a couple of weeks!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)

6. Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Air (PR: 9) (E)

10. May December (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)

12. Barbie (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Blitz (PR: 13) (E)

14. Challengers (PR: 8) (-6)

15. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

16. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Flint Strong (PR: 19) (+2)

18. Napoleon (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The Killer (PR: 21) (+2)

20. Rustin (PR: 20) (E)

21. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+3)

22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 17) (-5)

23. Ferrari (PR: 23) (E)

24. Strangers (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Asteroid City (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Bikeriders

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Todd Haynes, May December (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Luca Guadagnino, Challengers

David Fincher, The Killer

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (E)

13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)

15. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (moved to Supporting)

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 14) (+5)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (E)

11. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 5) (-7)

13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Andrew Scott, Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Andre Holland, The Actor

Paul Mescal, Strangers (moved to Supporting)

Adam Driver, Ferrari

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (E)

9. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked, moved from lead)

12. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

Moon Seung-ah, Past Lives

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Jeremy Strong, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Paul Dano, Dumb Money

2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Supporting Actress)

My initial ranked predictions covering the four acting races as well as director and picture for the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Supporting Actress! If you missed the post for Supporting Actor, you can find it linked here:

2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

As I did in that write-up, here are some fair warnings. Some of these performances may end up being considered lead. For example, Rosamund Pike in Saltburn is a question mark as far as category placement.

You might see some of these pictures pushed back to 2024. When I did my initial ranked projections around this time last year, I had Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) listed in 1st place. As you’ll see, since the movie got delayed to 2023, history repeats itself.

And some of these entries simply won’t become awards contenders while others will pop up that aren’t mentioned. In fact, only one of the Supporting Actresses (Hong Chau in The Whale) of the 15 that I listed the first time around for 2022 ended up being nominated.

Let’s see if those numbers improve for 2023!

TODD’S BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS PREDICTIONS:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

3. Julianne Moore, May December

4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple

5. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Air

7. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

8. Audra McDonald, Rustin

9. Lashana Lynch, Untitled Bob Marley Movie

10. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

11. Claire Foy, Strangers

12. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

13. Tilda Swinton, The Killer

14. Moon Seung-ah, Past Lives

15. Jodie Foster, Nyad

Best Actor is up next!

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actress)

My impossibly early and speculative first Oscar predictions for the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Supporting Actress! If you missed my post regarding the Supporting Actor hopefuls, you can find it here:

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

Before you know it, I’ll moving to my weekly (or every two weeks) forecasts for the main races. When I did these inaugural picks in this category last year, it correctly identified one eventual nominee (Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans) that made the quintet. However, she did so in lead Actress. Another (Hong Chau for The Whale) was listed in Other Possibilities.

Let’s get to it and Best Actor is up tomorrow!

TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Viola Davis, Air

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple

Julianne Moore, May December

Other Possibilities:

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Claire Foy, Strangers

Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Lashana Lynch, Untitled Bob Marley Movie

Audra McDonald, Rustin

Carey Mulligan, Saltburn

Margaret Qualley, Poor Things

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Amy Ryan, Beau is Afraid

Moon Seung-ah, Past Lives