Tag: Sundance Film Festival

Oscar Predictions: Winner

Director Susanna Fogel and star Emilia Jones of CODA fame teamed up last year at Sundance with the thriller Cat Person. Any Oscar buzz petered out upon its unveiling with an eventual 46% RT rating and very limited theatrical release. They are back at Sundance ’24 with Winner, a black comedy costarring Kathryn Newton, Connie Britton, Zach Galifianakis, and Danny Ramirez.

Winner refers to Reality Winner, Jones’s real-life character who became known for leaking intelligence about Russian meddling in the 2016 Presidential election. Like Cat, the premiere of this title came and went without much fanfare. The RT score is 60% and there’s no indication that this will be in the awards mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Gaucho Gaucho

Gaucho is the seventh studio offering by the great Steely Dan (it’s got “Hey Nineteen” on it)! Gaucho Gaucho, on the other hand, is Michael Dweck and Gregory Kershaw’s follow-up to their acclaimed 2021 documentary The Truffle Hunters. Focused on the title character community of Argentine cowboys, it has been unveiled at Sundance.

With an 86% RT score, the lions share of the praise is going to the B & W cinematography. Truffle, which received stronger reviews, didn’t make the Academy’s cut in Doc Feature. I’m skeptical this will be able to rustle up a nomination. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The American Society of Magical Negroes

Actor turned writer/director Kobi Libii makes his behind the camera debut with satire The American Society of Magical Negroes, which hit Sundance prior to its March 22nd bow. It stars Justice Smith (pulling double fest duty with the well-received I Saw the TV Glow), David Alan Grier, An-Li Bogan, Drew Tarver, Michaela Watkins, Aisha Hinds, Tim Baltz, Rupert Friend, and Nicole Byer.

The reception for Society is likely not what distributor Focus Features was hoping for. The RT rating is only 42%. There’s some thematic comps to freshly minted Best Picture nominee American Fiction. However, most are saying it doesn’t approach the quality of it. Don’t expect this to be talked about a year from now for the 97th Academy Awards. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: My Old Ass

Megan Park received critical acclaim for her 2021 directorial debut The Fallout starring Jenna Ortega. Her follow-up is generating the same in Park City at Sundance with My Old Ass. Maisy Stella (best known from TV’s Nashville) stars as a youngster able to communicate with her future self (Aubrey Plaza) about life and love ahead. Maddie Ziegler, Percy Hynes White, and Seth Isaac Johnson costar. Amazon MGM Studios plunked down $15 million for the distribution rights and they plan a theatrical release later this year.

With a 92% RT score, much of the festival buzz (beyond the sale) is centered on Stella. I don’t think the film itself will go far with awards prospects. In fact, the Academy may not sniff it at all. The Golden Globes, on the other hand, could take a look at the lead in Actress (Musical/Comedy). She could be a contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

In 2018, Ian Bonhôte and Peter Ettedgui’s documentary McQueen focused on British fashion director Alexander McQueen. It earned strong reviews, but wasn’t much of an awards player. The filmmakers are back with a higher profile doc six years later in Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story. It recounts the performer’s career and life following his paralysis resulting from a horse riding accident.

Early reaction from its Sundance screening is that it’s an emotionally stirring watch. The RT score is 100%. Like Will & Harper (my previous Oscar Predictions write-up), Super/Man should be subject to a bidding war by studios and streamers. This appears destined to be one of the most watched docs of 2024.

That doesn’t always translate to the Academy taking notice. In the just announced Oscar noms, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (also acclaimed and with similar themes) made the Documentary Feature shortlist. It did not make the final five. This story should have at least an equal shot at the ultimate quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Will & Harper

Will & Harper seems to be quite a crowd favorite at Sundance. The documentary follows Will Ferrell and best friend Harper Steele on a road trip following Harper’s recent gender transition. Josh Greenbaum, who made Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar and Strays, chronicles the journey.

Not all the reviews are raves, but it does have a 100% RT score. Obviously Ferrell’s star power and the subject matter could result in lots of eyeballs on this doc. It should be scooped by a streamer or studio in short order and there’s already rumors it might land the largest doc deal in Sundance history.

Just because this appears bound to be one of the highest profile pics in its genre doesn’t mean it’ll generate awards attention. Yet if viewers respond the way the Park City group is (multiple standing O’s), it could be in the conversation. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Freaky Tales

The most positive reviews of Freaky Tales, which has screened at Sundance, indicate it might be more at home coming in a VHS box. Called a love letter to the 80s era it is set in and to the city of Oakland, Anna Boden and Ryan Fleck (the team behind Half Nelson and Captain Marvel) direct the action drama depicting four connected stories. The cast includes Pedro Pascal, Jay Ellis, Normani, Dominique Thorne, Ben Mendelsohn, Ji-young Yoo, Jack Champion, and the late Angus Cloud. Fun fact: Too Short, famed Oakland rapper, narrates.

Critics extolling its virtues and shortfalls bring up Pulp Fiction and Tarantino. Yet unlike that 30-year-old classic, reaction is mixed with a 71% Rotten Tomatoes score. And unlike Fiction, it is likely a fact that Freaky Tales won’t be an awards contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: A Real Pain

A Real Pain is the second directorial feature from Jesse Eisenberg after When You Finish Saving the World. The dramedy about two cousins (Eisenberg and Kieran Culkin) on a Holocaust tour following their Grandma’s death could be a real contender next year. Searchlight Pictures apparently thinks so since it forked over $10 million for distribution rights after its Sundance premiere.

Reviews indicate this is a crowdpleaser that delicately balances tough subjects with humor. The RT score is 100%. Eisenberg, a Best Actor nominee in 2010 for The Social Network, could be in line for an Original Screenplay nod (that seems more likely than Director). Costars include Jennifer Grey (of Ferris Bueller and Dirty Dancing fame) and Will Sharpe. It could be Culkin (a freshly minted Emmy recipient for Succession) that garners acting attention in supporting. We usually see at least one Best Picture nominee start its journey in Park City (this year’s is Past Lives). A Real Pain is in contention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Exhibiting Forgiveness

Exhibiting Forgiveness marks the directorial debut of Titus Kaphar and it was unveiled at Sundance over the weekend. The family drama stars André Holland, John Earl Jelks, Andra Day, and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor.

Sporting a 100% RT rating, Forgiveness could be a real contender in some top tier races a year from now. With the right campaign, Picture and Original Screenplay are feasible. Holland could be a factor in lead Actor. With acclaimed turns in Moonlight and Passing, it could be time for major awards exposure (he also has a potentially baity part in The Actor in 2024). Jelks also is generating praise for his supporting work. This is one to keep an eye on throughout the long upcoming season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: A Different Man

Writer/director Aaron Schimberg’s A Different Man was one of the more buzzed about titles premiering at Sundance and early reaction is that it lives up to the hype. With reviews indicating it crosses multiple genres, Sebastian Stan stars as a formerly disfigured man with Adam Pearson (who has neurofibromatosis in real life) playing him in a stage production. Renate Reinsve (who drew acclaim raves for 2021’s The Worst Person in the World) costars.

With a 90% RT score, critics are saying this is tough story to pull off and that Schimberg generally succeeds. One also gets the vibe that this is a very A24 production. Translation: mainstream crowds might be turned off.

That said, A24 could mount a campaign for two of the three top performers in particular. Stan is said to give a career best performance in lead while Pearson is getting plenty of attention for his supporting turn. You may recognize him from an extremely eerie scene in Jonathan Glazer’s Under the Skin from 2014. If those actors can be in contention, other top of the line races could follow. I wouldn’t count out a Makeup and Hairstyling nod either. Let’s see how hard its distributor pushes. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…