Tag: Sundance Film Festival

Oscar Predictions: By Design

By Design from writer/director Amanda Kramer is likely to forever be known as the “Juliette Lewis is a chair” movie. The far out concept is exactly as it sounds apparently as her lead character makes that life altering decision. Mamoudou Athie, Melanie Griffith, Robin Tunney, Samantha Mathis, Udo Kier, Clifton Collins Jr., and Betty Buckley are among the supporting cast.

Premiering at Sundance, some critics are praising Lewis’s performance while reaction to the pic itself is more mixed (it has 75% on Rotten Tomatoes). In 1991, Lewis landed a Supporting Actress nod for her breakout role in Martin Scorsese’s Cape Fear remake. She hasn’t really been in the mix since and I doubt By Design will get her a seat at the awards table. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Sly Lives! (aka The Burden of Black Genius)

Questlove, from the hip hop group The Roots and bandleader on The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon, took Sundance by storm four years ago with Summer of Soul. That documentary focused on 1969’s Harlem Cultural Festival won the Audience Award and Grand Jury Prize for its genre at the Utah event. Over a year later, it would emerge as Best Documentary Feature at the 94th Academy Awards.

The filmmaker’s follow-up is Sly Lives! (aka The Burden of Black Genius) and it too has kicked off in Park City. Centered on the life and career of the enigmatic Sly Stone of Sly and the Family Stone, it’s slated for a Hulu streaming bow in February.

Word-of-mouth is encouraging though some critics are not as effusive as they were with Soul. Academy voters may take that into consideration when evaluating whether to take Sly higher into the awards convo next year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Omaha

Omaha is not centered around the play calls of legendary quarterback Peyton Manning. Instead this Sundance premiere is a road trip drama anchored by John Magaro’s performance. He plays a father taking his kids (Molly Belle Wright and Wyatt Solis) cross country in a directorial debut from Cole Webley.

Reviews are complimentary thus far with particular attention paid to Magaro. Despite receiving acclaim in pics like First Cow, Past Lives, and September 5, he’s yet to have his Oscar bait role. A distributor would really need to work some magic for Omaha to be that project. Maybe some Indie Spirit attention is likelier. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Rose Byrne has been highly visible on the big screen in horror flicks like the Insidious franchise, superhero adventures such as X-Men: First Class, and multiple comedies including Bridesmaids, Spy, and Instant Family. The Australian actress received Emmy nods for her supporting role in the acclaimed Damages in 2009 and 2010.

She has yet to have a cinematic vehicle that’s driven significant awards talk. That may change this year with If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Focused on the not so great aspects of motherhood (there are comparisons to Nightbitch), Byrne is being lauded in Mary Bronstein’s second directorial feature. The eclectic supporting cast includes Conan O’Brien (who’ll be hosting the Oscars in a few weeks), Danielle Macdonald, Delaney Quinn, A$AP Rocky, and Christian Slater.

Premiering at Sundance, critics are already proclaiming Byrne’s performance as a 2025 highlight. I would expect distributor A24 to mount a serious campaign for Best Actress. The frenetic energy of the pic is being likened to Uncut Gems. It’s worth noting that 2019 A24 title did not end up getting Adam Sandler his first Academy nod despite a major push.

Obviously we’ll need to see how competition is as the months roll along, but I could envision Byrne being in the conversation. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Jimpa

Three years ago at the Sundance Film Festival, Sophie Hyde premiered her dramedy Good Luck to You, Leo Grande where Emma Thompson earned an Actress (Musical or Comedy) nom. It also rounded up a few BAFTA mentions. In 2025, the writer/director is back in Park City with Jimpa. Olivia Colman stars as a mom taking her non-binary teen to visit their gay grandpa (or Jimpa) in Amsterdam. John Lithgow is the title character with newcomer Aud Mason-Hyde as the teen. Costars include Tilda Cobham-Hervey, Daniel Henshall, Kate Box, Eamon Farren, and Zoë Love Smith.

Colman had a four year Oscar run where she achieved 3 nominations: 2018’s The Favourite (where she won), 2020’s The Father in supporting, and 2021’s The Lost Daughter in lead. Lithgow nabbed back-to-back mentions in Supporting Actor over four decades ago with 1982’s The World According to Garp and 1983’s Terms of Endearment (winning neither). Both of these roles seem like Academy bait.

However, initial reaction is mixed with 67% on Rotten Tomatoes. Perhaps its eventual distributor will mount a campaign. Lithgow, in what’s said to be quite a revealing role, seems due for one. His turn in Conclave last year turned out not to be that part as costars Ralph Fiennes and Isabella Rossellini were the focal points. I’m just not convinced this’ll be a major awards player at all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: 2000 Meters to Andriivka

At last year’s Academy Awards, Mstyslav Chernov’s 20 Days in Mariupol received the Documentary Feature prize. Ukrainian filmmaker will look to achieve the same at next year’s ceremony with 2000 Meters to Andriivka.

Focused on the Russia/Ukraine war like Mariupol, Andriivka has premiered at the Sundance Film Festival (also like Chernov’s predecessor). Before we delve into this project, let’s talk Sundance for a moment. The Park City (for now) event kicked off today so you can expect several Oscar Prediction posts covering its screenings.

While Sundance can give us BP nominees like CODA, Judas and the Black Messiah, and Minari to name some recents, that didn’t happen today though A Real Pain probably came close. Where the fest does provide lots of contenders is with their docs. Four of today’s Documentary Feature nominees for the 97th Academy Awards screened at Sundance: Black Box Diaries, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, and Sugarcane.

With that context is out of the way, back to Andriivka. Early reviews and WOM indicates that this could be another contender for Chernov. There is the matter of whether voters might feel they just honored the director. Let’s see how its distribution plays out too, but I wouldn’t discount this being in the mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Focusing on an online gamer and his fight with muscular dystrophy, Benjamin Ree directs the documentary The Remarkable Life of Ibelin. It was released on Netflix last month after premiering at the Sundance Film Festival earlier this year. In Utah, it was the recipient of the World Documentary Audience Award.

With a 98% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 78 on Metacritic, Ibelin is already in contention for the Critics Choice Documentary Awards Best Feature (where there are 10 nominees), Director, Score, and Editing. All of that could be a recipe for a Documentary Feature nod at the Oscars if it makes the shortlist. I’ve yet to place it in my top five, but it’s been mentioned in the top 10 of possibilities. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Black Box Diaries

Japanese journalist Shiori Itõ recounts her own rape case in the documentary Black Box Diaries, out this weekend. Based on her memoir, it first premiered at Sundance to rave reviews and has continued to play the stateside and international fest circuit. It was acquired by MTV Documentaries.

The Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at 98% with 87 on Metacritic. The doc branch of the Academy can often leave surprising omissions on their shortlist for their best feature. If Diaries makes the shortlist, I suspect it gets into the final five in contention and my forecasts over the last past several weeks have reflected that. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Between the Temples

The religious themed dramedy Between the Temples premiered at Sundance in January and it receives limited theatrical engagements this weekend. Nathan Silver directs and cowrites with a cast led by Jason Schwartzman and Carol Kane. Costars include Dolly de Leon (who probably came close to a Supporting Actress nod for 2022’s Triangle of Sadness), Caroline Aaron, Robert Smigel, and Madeline Weinstein.

Reviews are mostly strong as it sits with 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. Critics are particularly kind to Schwartzman and Kane. The former is, of course, a Wes Anderson staple. The latter is a veteran actress whose sole Oscar nod in Supporting Actress came nearly 50 years ago for Hester Street.

Temples just isn’t visible enough for any Academy chatter and the same logic likely applies to the Golden Globes if it submits in the Musical/Comedy categories. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Skywalkers: A Love Story

No, Skywalkers: A Love Story is not a movie that advances the in hindsight uncomfortable smooch between Luke (Mark Hamill) and Leia (Carrie Fisher) in The Empire Strikes Back. Instead this documentary, which premiered on Netflix over the weekend, covers a Russian daredevil couple and their exploits atop a skyscraper. Jeff Zimbalist (whose 2005 environmental doc Favela Rising was shortlisted for Best Feature in its genre at the Oscars) and Maria Bukhonina co-direct. The pic originally premiered at Sundance back in January.

The Tomato meter currently sits at 73%. That mixed reaction is unlikely to put it in contention with the Academy. I didn’t have Skywalkers listed in my 10 possibilities for Doc Feature in my initial projections last weekend and wouldn’t count on it climbing up. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…