David Borenstein’s Mr. Nobody Against Putin chronicles a Russian school videographer (Pavel Talankin) and his documentation of the propaganda handed down to students following its invasion of Ukraine. It won a World Cinema Documentary Special Jury Award from Sundance after its premiere there back in January.
With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 79 Metacritic, Nobody awaits stateside distribution. If it makes the 2025 release calendar, it could certainly contend for Doc Feature. I do wonder if 2000 Meters to Andriivka, also covering the Russia-Ukraine war on the battlefield and not the classroom, will fill that so-called slot among the five nominees. There could be room for two, but I’d give Andriivka the edge. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The body horror genre had its awards breakout last year via Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance. After its January unveiling at Sundance, could Together generate attention from voters? Starring real-life married couple Alison Brie and Dave Franco, it marks the directorial debut of Michael Shanks (who also scripts).
The exploration of codependence made a splash in Park City months ago. Hitting theaters on July 30th, the Rotten Tomatoes score is a perfect 100% (with almost 50 reviews in) with 76 on Metacritic. I probably would’ve discounted its prospects before The Substance nabbed five nods. Together is likely still a long shot for Academy attention. If it can contend anywhere, look to Original Screenplay. However, that race is already packed with potential players. Perhaps more importantly, distributor Neon will have its hands full with Sentimental Value and It Was Just an Accident. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
There are changes to discuss with my first Oscar predictions in two weeks. The headline is that we have 2 new selections in my Best Picture ten. As I mentioned in the recent aftermath of the Cannes Film Festival, distributor Neon already has a full slate of contenders to campaign for including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, and The Life of Chuck. With Chuck out in limited release, I am beginning to suspect it could get the short shrift. I am also starting to sour on The Rivals of Amziah King, which drew raves at Sundance in January. We will have to see if it plays fall festivals and can regain any momentum.
With King and Chuck falling out of my projected BP lineup, it leaves room for Netflix to join the party via Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein and I’m also elevating del Toro in Director with Amziah‘s Andrew Patterson out. The other pic to rise is Scott Cooper’s Bruce Springsteen biopic Deliver Me from Nowhere. In Best Actor, Matthew McConaughey from Amziah is replaced with Michael B. Jordan in Sinners. I still have Angelina LookingGlass from Amziah clinging to a Supporting Actress mention though I came close to replacing her with either Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Laura Dern (Jay Kelly), or Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of the Spider Woman).
Also noteworthy is the ascension of Sentimental Value in Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actor with Renate Reinsve now at #1 in Actress. As a reminder, this isn’t saying the #1 pick is who/what I believe will win. It is a sign of surety of the nomination.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+2)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 16) (+8)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)
10. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Bugonia (PR: 13) (+1)
13. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (-4)
15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (-7)
16. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Die, My Love (PR: 20) (+2)
19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)
20. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (-1)
21. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (E)
22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)
23. Sound of Falling (PR: 17) (-6)
24. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+8)
5. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)
7. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)
14. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-9)
15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (+1)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (E)
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)
10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (E)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12 (E)
Rom com remake The Wedding Banquet opens in theaters on Easter weekend from director Andrew Ahn. Arriving 22 years after Ang Lee’s acclaimed pic (which was nominated in the international race at the Oscars), the new version stars Bowen Yang, Lily Gladstone, Kelly Marie Tran, Han Gi-chan, Joan Chen, and Minari Supporting Actress winner Youn Yuh-jung.
After its premiere at the Sundance Film Festival in January, critical reaction was encouraging. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 97% with 72 on Metacritic. I don’t see this as an Academy contender for Bleecker Street (a distributor with a rough record at awards campaigning). Maybe they’ll give it a shot in the Musical/Comedy race at the Golden Globes, but they better up their game. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our second entry in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Kieran Culkin in Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain. If you missed my post covering Yura Borisov in Anora, it’s linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Kieran Culkin:
Ever since A Real Pain premiered at Sundance over a year ago, Culkin has been considered a strong possibility for awards play. That narrative has carried over and intensified as the Succession Emmy winner has already picked up the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award. He’s also vying for BAFTA and SAG.
The Case Against Kieran Culkin:
The fact that A Real Pain didn’t nab a BP nod from the Academy is a tad concerning. Christopher Plummer (Beginners) is the last Supporting Actor recipient whose film wasn’t up in the big race and that was 13 years ago.
The Verdict:
Culkin is unquestionably the favorite. If someone else snags BAFTA or SAG (say Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown or Guy Pearce in The Brutalist), it could get more interesting.
My Case Of posts will continue with the second hopeful in Best Director and that’s Brady Corbet for The Brutalist…
Fantasy adventure The Legend of Ochi was unveiled at Sundance prior to the A24 project’s April 25th release. Marking the directorial debut of Isaiah Saxon, the creature feature has drawn comparisons to 80s family flicks including E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial and The Neverending Story. Helena Zengel (who probably came close to a Supporting Actress nom for 2020’s News of the World), Finn Wolfhard, Willem Dafoe, and Emily Watson star.
While critics are appreciating its throwback vibe, reviews aren’t strong enough for serious awards consideration. Rotten Tomatoes is at 80% with a 66 on Metacritic. There is some kudos for its practical effects though I don’t believe they will register with the VE branch several months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Prior to its March 28th limited release stateside, The Ballad of Wallis Island landed at Sundance. The British comedy casts Tim Key as an accidental multi-millionaire who plots to reunite his favorite musicians (Tom Basden and Carey Mulligan) on his private island. Akemnji Ndifornyen and Sian Clifford costar. James Griffith, best known for TV production work on Black-ish and Grown-ish, directs.
Park City reaction praised Island as a heartwarming confection. With its spring release, I question whether Focus Features will make it a focus come awards time despite the 95% Rotten Tomatoes score and 76 Metacritic. Its best hope might be recognition at BAFTA where it could nab one of the 10 slots for Outstanding British Film. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Eva Victor is making her feature film directorial, screenwriting, and starring debut in Sorry, Baby. The drama centered around trauma costars Naomi Ackie, Lucas Hedges, John Carroll Lynch, Louis Cancelmi, and Kelly McCormack. It is one of the buzziest titles that premiered at Sundance.
With a Rotten Tomatoes score of 97% and an 88 Metacritic, A24 outbid competitors for distribution rights. Victor is being hailed as a welcome new voice to the silver screen. Her original screenplay could draw attention from the Academy. I would especially look for the Indie Spirit Awards to take notice of it and that could apply to multiple categories. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Opus, out March 14th from A24, marks the directorial debut of Mark Anthony Green. Unveiled at Sundance, the thriller stars The Bear‘s Ayo Edebiri as a journalist tasked with profiling a reclusive former pop star (John Malkovich) on his island full of sycophants. Juliette Lewis, Murray Bartlett, Amber Midthunder, Young Mazino, Tatanka Means, and Tony Hale are among supporting players.
Despite a cool sounding concept, critics are saying the execution doesn’t land. The Rotten Tomatoes meter and Metacritic score are each stalled at 41. This is one Sundance entry that will not be part of any awards conversations. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Josh O’Connor is already an Emmy winner as a young Prince Charles from Netflix’s The Crown. He’s recently had acclaimed roles in La Chimera and Challengers and probably isn’t far away from his first silver screen awards bait role. Could that be Rebuilding?
Max Walker-Silverman’s drama casts O’Connor as a rancher displaced by wildfires. Costars include Meghann Fahy, Kali Reis, Lily LaTorre, and Amy Madigan. Reviews out of Sundance screenings are positive at 94% on RT and 76 on Metacritic. Some notices are strong enough that I wonder whether this could be an awards player with the right campaign. The timely nature of the subject matter should additionally be taken into consideration.
That chatter could extend to O’Connor and the lauded cinematography (a similar combo to Train Dreams which was also unveiled in Park City). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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