Tag: Sundance Film Festival

Oscar Watch: Sorry to Bother You

This Friday, the satire Sorry to Bother You debuts in limited release after receiving many raves at the Sundance Film Festival earlier this year. The pic is written and directed by hip hop musician Boots Riley with a cast led by Lakeith Stanfield (best known for TV’s “Atlanta” and last year’s Get Out), Tessa Thompson, Jermaine Fowler, Terry Crews, Patton Oswalt, David Cross, Danny Glover, and Armie Hammer.

Bother has the potential to be a sleeper this summer. As mentioned, reviews are strong and it stands at 96% on Rotten Tomatoes. Could Oscar voters notice it? It could be a long shot but Stanfield and Hammer in particular were acknowledged by critics. Many feel the latter was slighted last year for his supporting work in Call Me by Your Name.

Where the film could stand a legitimate chance for a nod could be in Original Screenplay- an award Jordan Peele won months ago for Get Out.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Leave No Trace

Eight years ago, director Debra Granik had a breakout success with Winter’s Bone. The drama set in the Ozarks was a critical darling that earned four Oscar nominations: Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor for John Hawkes, and Actress for an unknown at the time by the name of Jennifer Lawrence.

There’s been a lengthy break between projects for Granik and her latest just hit theaters in limited fashion over the weekend. Leave No Trace tells the tale of a veteran (Ben Foster) with PTSD raising a teenage daughter (Thomasin McKenzie). It premiered earlier this year at the Sundance Film Festival to similar acclaim that Bone received. With over 90 reviews on record, the Rotten Tomatoes score is 100%.

Could the Academy take notice of Trace? It could be a long shot, but I wouldn’t discount the possibility. Critics have particularly praised McKenzie here and if Bleecker Street mounts a campaign for Actress or (more likely) Supporting Actress, she could be another relative unknown whose work is acknowledged under Granik’s direction.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Opening in limited fashion this weekend is one of the year’s more hotly anticipated documentaries – Won’t You Be My Neighbor? Focused on the life of Mister Rogers, whose public access children’s program spanned decades and inspired generations of youngsters, it premiered in January at the Sundance Film Festival to wide acclaim. Its Rotten Tomatoes score sits at 97% currently.

The Oscar pedigree for it is evident as its director Morgan Neville won Best Documentary Feature in 2014 for 20 Feet From Stardom. Neighbor, like the recent RBG, is the rare doc that has legitimate box office breakout potential due its familiar subject matter. That said, the documentary branch of the Academy is an unpredictable lot. Last year’s Jane, for instance, covered a much appreciated figure, was looked at as a front-runner in some circles, and ended up without a nomination.

Yet don’t surprised to find this on the short list of inclusions come next year. Interestingly, the story of Rogers could find itself in the Oscar mix for two years in a row. 2019 brings You Are My Friend, a biopic starring Tom Hanks as the sweater clad host.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Hereditary Box Office Prediction

The horror thriller Hereditary generated a lot of buzz when it premiered at the Sundance Film Festival way back in January and A24 unleashes it to audiences next weekend. Marking the directorial debut of Ari Aster, early reviews suggest a highly effective and scary experience. Its Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 100% (never a bad selling point for TV spots). Toni Collette stars alongside Alex Wolff, Gabriel Byrne, Milly Shapiro, and Ann Dowd.

This particular genre is often the hardest to predict as horror movies can vastly over or under perform. It’s also perhaps the genre where reviews truly don’t mean a lot. For instance, 2016’s The Witch and last year’s It Comes at Night both had critics on their side in a major way. Their respective debuts were only $8.8 million and $5.9 million (with It Comes at Night being released on the same June weekend as this is). On the other hand, something like A Quiet Place took in $50 million for its start just a few weeks ago.

So what’s a prognosticator like me to do? I’ll admit that this is a tough one and I foresee a wide range for the opening of Hereditary. It won’t come anywhere near the earnings of A Quiet Place, but debuting around $20 million wouldn’t shock me. The problem is that if it fell to high single digits or low double digits, that wouldn’t really shock me either.

Fair warning: this is an estimate that may fluctuate during the next nine days. For the time being, I’ll say Hereditary posts an opening in the low double digits to possibly low teens as it will hope to leg out decently based on buzz in subsequent frames.

Hereditary opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million

For my Ocean’s 8 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/30/oceans-8-box-office-prediction/

For my Hotel Artemis prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/30/hotel-artemis-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: RBG

After a sizzling limited release last weekend, documentary RBG rolls out in more theaters this weekend. From directors Betsy West and Julie Cohen, the pic tells the story of United States Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg. It premiered at the Sundance Film Festival earlier this year to wide acclaim and currently sits at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes.

So far in 2018, RBG seems to be the highest profile film of its genre released to date. Will the documentary branch of the Academy notice? It’s certainly a major possibility as this should be right up their alley. That said, the Oscar voters in this race can be unpredictable. Just last year, another doc about a well-known female trailblazer Jane (as in Goodall) was considered a possibility to win at one point. It ended up not being nominated.

Bottom line? You never know with the voters, but RBG already has a solid closing argument for inclusion.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Come Sunday

Joshua Marston’s Come Sunday premiered on Netflix over the weekend after first being screened at the Sundance Film Festival earlier this year. The pic casts Chiwetel Ejiofor as real life bishop Carlton Pearson, who was deemed a heretic for his beliefs. Costars include Danny Glover, Martin Sheen, Jason Segel, Lakeith Stanfield, and Condola Rashad. Director Marston is most known for his acclaimed 2004 feature Maria Full of Grace.

Critical reaction for Sunday has been mixed and it currently stands at 67% on Rotten Tomatoes. Considering the Academy’s curiosity on how to even handle Netflix premieres, this was at best a long shot for recognition for Picture. The rather lukewarm reviews only solidify that.

That said, most critics have raved about Ejiofor, who would be going for his second nod following 2013’s 12 Years a Slave. Some notices have gone as far to say it’s his finest performance. Yet the likelihood is that come nomination time, any buzz will have waned for Ejiofor and he won’t be attending the Oscars for his work here on that particular Sunday.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Hereditary

Two months ago, the supernatural horror flick Hereditary debuted at the Sundance Film Festival and it made quite an impression. Reaction from Utah (where this was also shot) has indicated it’s a genre exercise that truly is a frightening experience and it sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes currently. The film marks the directorial debut of Ari Asher with a cast led by Toni Collette and costarring Gabriel Byrne, Alex Wolff, Milly Shapiro, and Ann Dowd.

As we know, horror pics face an uphill battle for any Academy recognition and that could certainly be the case here. That said, the buzz for this is getting louder as it debuts stateside on June 8. Critics have particularly taken notice of Collette, saying her performance is masterful. If she manages a nomination for Actress, it would be her second Oscar nod. She was recognized nearly 20 years ago in Supporting Actress for another genre piece, The Sixth Sense. Collette is not the only actress generating some buzz in this category as Emily Blunt could garner attention for this April’s A Quiet Place.

Bottom line: even with its sterling critical reaction, Hereditary could be a long shot for attention. Collette, on the other hand, could be worth keeping an eye on.

 

Oscar Watch: Tully

A surprise addition to this year’s Sundance Film Festival slate was a screening of Tully, the latest comedic drama from director Jason Reitman. The pic focuses on motherhood with the title character being played by Charlize Theron. It also marks Reitman’s third collaboration with writer Diablo Cody. The first – 2007’s Juno – received a host of Oscar nods. The second – 2011’s Young Adult – received no significant awards attention despite some solid reviews.

Early notices are positive and particularly praising of Theron’s work and the supporting performance of Mackenzie Davis as a nanny helping the frazzled Theron. Tully comes out stateside in April and that could be a hindrance to its Oscar potential. Voters will have to recall the work of the aforementioned actresses from months ago. If it hits at the box office, that could certainly help.

Bottom line: Tully could be a factor in both Actress and Supporting Actress, but time will tell.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Colette

The first major distribution deal at the Sundance Film Festival transpired this weekend when Bleecker Street and 30WEST acquired the rights to Colette. The biopic focuses on acclaimed French novelist Sidonie-Gabrielle Colette, played by Keira Knightley in a performance that has critics raving. Costars include Dominic West and Fiona Shaw. The pic is directed by Wash Westmoreland, who last helped guide Julianne Moore to a Best Actress Oscar in Still Alice.

It’s safe to assume the studios who payed for Colette will be making a push for Knightley to nab her second nomination after Pride and Prejudice in 2005. Her inclusion will depend on the competition over the next year and how well the film is marketed to audiences.

Bottom line: there’s enough buzz out of Utah to justify Knightley as one to watch in 2018.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far On Foot

The Sundance Film Festival is in full swing in Utah and that means a batch of 2018 Oscar Watch columns are coming your way. In 2017, the fest gave us four pictures that find themselves in the awards mix: Get Out, Call Me by Your Name, Mudbound, and The Big Sick.

We begin with Gus Van Sant’s Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far On Foot, a biopic of Oregon cartoonist and quadriplegic John Callahan. He’s played by Joaquin Phoenix with a supporting cast that includes Jonah Hill, Rooney Mara, and Jack Black. Some of the early reviews out of Park City are quite positive, though not all of them are across the board. It’s scheduled for stateside release this May.

The project was originally intended as a starring vehicle for the late Robin Williams and it would’ve marked a reunion with his Good Will Hunting director. Van Sant has seen that film and 2008’s Milk garner multiple Oscar nods.

Could Foot follow suit? It’s certainly possible, especially for Phoenix and Hill. If so, it would mark the former’s fourth nod and the latter’s third. Neither have yet to win. Interestingly, Phoenix could face competition in the form of himself as his You Were Never Really Here played the festival circuit last year and won him acclaim.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…