Tag: Star Wars

Box Office Predictions: December 18-20

It’s a weekend that box office prognosticators like myself have been waiting for all year long! Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the fourth Alvin and the Chipmunks film has arrived!!!

OK… in all seriousness, you may have heard of the big picture arriving this weekend called Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The seventh episode of the beloved franchise has been breathlessly awaited and it stands a shot at breaking pretty much every box office record there is. I truly feel it could gross anywhere from $170-$275 million out of the gate so I basically split the difference. That means my prediction does have it devouring the all time opening weekend record posted by Jurassic World this summer. It is worth noting that other estimators are saying this will come under what Jurassic accomplished, but we shall see. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/08/star-wars-the-force-awakens-box-office-prediction/

Somewhat surprisingly, other studios are premiering new product in hopes of serving as counter programming to The Force. We have the aforementioned Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip and Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy Sisters. I look for them to have fairly soft openings and have a close competition for second place. On the bright side, both titles could continue to play well and experience small declines into further holiday weekends. My prediction posts on both of them can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/10/sisters-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/10/alvin-and-the-chipmunks-the-road-chip-box-office-prediction/

As for holdovers, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 will finally fall from its four week perch atop the charts. In the Heart of the Sea got off to a lackluster start (more on that below) and I actually expect it to drop farther percentage wise than The Good Dinosaur and Creed.

And with that, my top seven predictions for what could be a historic weekend:

  1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Gross: $234.7 million

2. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

3. Sisters

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

4. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2

Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 38%)

5. The Good Dinosaur

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 36%)

6. Creed

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)

7. In the Heart of the Sea

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 49%)

Box Office Results: December 11-13

Ron Howard’s $100 million whale tale In the Heart of the Sea with Chris Hemsworth was crushed by a wave of audience ambivalence with a gross of just $11 million, well under my $18.4M estimate. The pic, which received mixed reviews, simply didn’t capture the attention of adventure fans who may be biding their time until this weekend.

That allowed The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 to stay #1 for the fourth weekend in a row with $11.3 million, just topping my $10.5M projection. The franchise finale has taken in $244 million.

Pixar’s disappointing The Good Dinosaur was third with $10.5 million, ahead of my $9.4M prediction for a total of $89 million. This is well below the standards of what its studio is accustomed to and it remains on track to be Pixar’s smallest earner. On the bright side for parent company Disney, they’ve got a pretty high profile release out this weekend…

Creed took fourth with $10.1 million, a bit higher than my $9.1M estimate for an overall tally of $79 million. This looks to be the first Rocky flick to top $100M since Rocky IV some thirty years ago.

Krampus was fifth in its second weekend with $8.4 million, topping my $7.3M projection. Its taken in a tidy $28 million at press time and is performing solidly for a relatively low budget horror comedy.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time… May The Force Be With You…

Star Wars: The Force Awakens Box Office Prediction

It is not only the most anticipated film of the year but probably of the 21st century. This is not hyperbole. 38 years after George Lucas changed the movie industry forever with Star Wars, the baton has been passed to J.J. Abrams with Star Wars: The Force Awakens, out December 18. We’ve seen over a decade pass since the unevenly received second trilogy that ran from 1999-2005. This marked the end of Mr. Lucas’s involvement in the franchise and the end of 20th Century Fox producing the entries (no iconic Fox music before “In a galaxy far, far away” may take a little getting used to).

Instead we have Disney taking over the most beloved franchise in silver screen history and we’ve repeatedly seen their brilliance at marketing blockbusters (think Marvel Cinematic Universe). The Force Awakens has been omnipresent for months and it’s ramped up to the point where every other commercial seems to be connected somehow to it. The official trailers and TV spots have been events. It’s sold $100 million dollars at press time in pre-sale tickets, which was previously an unimaginable haul. With all the exposure, the studio has done a truly remarkable job in keeping plot details under wraps.

We know this: original trilogy stars Mark Hamill, Harrison Ford, and Carrie Fisher return in the iconic roles of Luke Skywalker, Han Solo, and Princess Leia. A new generation makes up the supporting cast that includes John Boyega, Oscar Isaac, Daisy Ridley, Adam Driver, and Domhnall Gleeson. Oh and there’s Chewbacca, R2-D2, and C-3PO.

For those of us old enough to remember the breathless anticipation afforded to 1999’s Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace, it’s probably the only thing that compares in the past couple of decades. There are many hotly anticipated blockbusters but Star Wars is simply on a different planet.

So now the nine figure question: how much will The Force Awakens earn its opening weekend? How much is it capable of making? Will its debut set the all time record? Fascinating queries indeed, these are.

We begin with this: the current record holder came out just this summer when Jurassic World earned $208.8 million, which edged out previous champ The Avengers at $207 million. I’m sure Disney would love to get that record back that the dinosaurs took away in June. These are the only two pictures that have made over $200M out of the gate. Both were released in summer, as are seven of the all time top ten domestic premieres.

None came out in December and this is not an inconsequential point. In fact, the current highest December debut belongs to The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. It made $84 million and that’s good for just the 57th largest opening ever. Truth be told, even massive blockbusters that open in December usually open smaller than they might in the summer. 2009’s Avatar began with $77 million before becoming the biggest stateside grosser ever. The reason is simple: Christmas time releases tend to play well over multiple weekends while similar summer titles make the bulk of their coin immediately.

Let’s dispatch with the glaringly obvious: The Force Awakens will obliterate the December record. At worst, it should double The Hobbit’s initial earnings. Frankly, guessing what Star Wars is capable of is a dicey proposition, but the low end of estimates is around $170-$175 million. If it managed that, it would sincerely be a fine start.

Yet there is a suspicion that Jurassic’s six month long record could be headed for extinction. The combo of Disney hype and a true love across all ages for the series has contributed to an Event Experience we rarely witness. What’s the highest it could go? Honestly, I don’t know. The figure of $300 million has been mentioned. That seems a bit crazy, but you just never know. There’s part of me that believes $275-$280 million might just be reachable and another that feels it could fall short of the record with around $185-$205 million.

What’s a box office predicting blogger to do? Split the difference. With this wide range of possibilities, I’ll project that Star Wars: The Force Awakens will achieve the best American opening ever and by a rather considerable margin. I’ll be one among many speculating over the next ten days before its debut, but my two cents is in, my friends. Let’s see what happens!

Star Wars: The Force Awakens opening weekend prediction: $234.7 million

For my Sisters prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/10/sisters-box-office-prediction/

For my Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/10/alvin-and-the-chipmunks-the-road-chip-box-office-prediction/

Top 25 Best Movie Trailers (1990-2015): Nos. 10-6

This evening we arrive at part four of my personal top 25 best movie trailers of the last 25 years and that means we’ve reached the top ten! We’ve got numbers 10-6 tonight with the top five coming tomorrow. Here we go:

10. Terminator 2: Judgment Day (1991)

This simple yet very effective teaser for Jim Cameron’s follow-up to his 1984 sci-fi hit shows Arnold’s famous Terminator being assembled with the money line at the end, “I’ll be back.” As good as teasers get.

9. Watchmen (2009)

With its Smashing Pumpkins track being used to great effect, Zack Snyder’s adaptation of the famed graphic novel is an expertly edited and visually beautiful trailer that rightly got fan boys into a tizzy a few years back.

8. Independence Day (1996)

So Roland Emmerich’s smash hit was a bit underwhelming and too silly in my view, but this teaser showing the impending alien invasion was all kinds of awesome with its White House money shot to top it off.

7. The Matrix Reloaded (2003)

Expectations were sky high for the sequel to 1999’s watershed science fiction pic and the trailer for Reloaded delivered on every front with its eye popping visuals, even if the film itself was seen as a letdown by many.

6. Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menance (1999)

Yes, I could have listed the trailer for the upcoming Force Awakens here. Yet for those old enough to remember, whether the picture itself turned out well (and it really didn’t), this teaser for Episode 1 was and is probably the most breathlessly awaited teaser ever. It succeeded at stoking the anticipation for the world’s most famous franchise to return.

Tune in tomorrow to check out my top 5, ladies and gents!

Summer 2005: The Top Ten Hits and More

Last week on the blog, we took a trip down nostalgia lane recounting the top ten summer movies from 20 years ago and other notable pictures and flops from that season. This evening, we go back a decade and have a look at what had moviegoers buzzing way back in 2005.

That summer’s top hit was the one we expected it to be as it marked the end of one trilogy that was considered disappointing. Yet it’s a performer in the middle of the pack that started one of the most beloved recent trilogies in recent film history.

Let’s go back in time, my friends:

10. The 40-Year-Old Virgin

Domestic Gross: $109 million

As Judd Apatow prepares to release his fifth feature with Trainwreck on Friday, this is where it started with him as this critically acclaimed comedy rocketed Steve Carell into movie stardom.

9. Fantastic Four

Domestic Gross: $154 million

Critics may not have dug it (27% on Rotten Tomatoes) but the adaptation of the famed Marvel Comic with Jessica Alba and Michael Chiklis scored with audiences enough to warrant a 2007 sequel. A new franchise reboot hits theaters this August.

8. The Longest Yard

Domestic Gross: $158 million

Adam Sandler took over the Burt Reynolds role in this remake of the 1974 prison football comedy with Chris Rock and Reynolds himself costarring.

7. Mr. & Mrs. Smith

Domestic Gross: $186 million

The action comedy from director Doug Liman earned plenty of headlines due to the real life romance between stars Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie and hefty box office came along with it. The couple will reunite onscreen again in this fall’s By the Sea. 

6. Madagascar

Domestic Gross: $193 million

With no Pixar film on the docket, Dreamworks Madagascar was the top animated feature of the summer and has since spawned two sequels and a spin-off.

5. Batman Begins

Domestic Gross: $205 million

It’s hard to remember now, but Chris Nolan’s reboot of the Dark Knight’s world did quite well, but wasn’t a mega ton blockbuster like its 2008 and 2012 sequels would be. Still, it immediately wiped the bad taste out of the mouth of audiences left by Joel Schumacher’s Batman and Robin from eight summers ago. Of course, this began the trilogy that has become the gold standard in superhero flicks.

4. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

Domestic Gross: $206 million

Tim Burton’s retelling of Roald Dahl’s classic book starred Johnny Depp as Willy Wonka. It may not have the beloved status as 1971’s offering with Gene Wilder, but it made the studio very happy with its massive earnings.

3. Wedding Crashers

Domestic Gross: $209 million

The sleeper hit of the season paired Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson and helped invigorate (along with #10 Virgin) the R-rated comedy. The two would appear again in the considerably less successful The Internship eight years later.

2. War of the Worlds

Domestic Gross: $234 million

Steven Spielberg directed Tom Cruise in this version of H.G. Wells renowned sci-fi novel and crowds turned out in droves so much that it’s Mr. Cruise’s highest grossing domestic earner of all time.

1. Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith

Domestic Gross: $380 million

Sith easily took the crown for the summer’s champion and it concluded George Lucas’s second trilogy that received mixed reactions from critics and audiences… and that’s putting it kindly. This third episode is widely considered an improvement over Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones. Of course, we’ll see what JJ Abrams manages to do this December when Episode 7 is released… in case you hadn’t heard.

And now, some other notable pictures outside the top ten:

13. March of the Penguins

Domestic Gross: $77 million

This little French documentary that could astonished box office watchers with its magnificent stateside gross. Bottom line: people dig penguins.

18. Cinderella Man

Domestic Gross: $61 million

Critics mostly lauded Ron Howard’s Depression era boxing tale with Russell Crowe and Renee Zellwegger, but it under performed at the box office at the time of its release (not quite enough to put it in the total flop column though).

20. Crash

Domestic Gross: $54 million

Paul Haggis’s L.A. set racial drama came out of nowhere to score solid business. It went on to win Best Picture, which was a surprise over front runner Brokeback Mountain, which came out in the fall.

And now for the flops…

Nicole Kidman and Will Ferrell headlined Nora Ephron’s Bewitched, based on the 1960s TV comedy. Audiences and critics reacted with ambivalence and the $85 million budgeted pic managed just $63 million domestically.

Ridley Scott’s Kingdom of Heaven with Orlando Bloom captured none of the director’s Gladiator magic and it earned $47 million against its reported $130 million budget.

Michael Bay had found huge success with the Bad Boys movies, The Rock, and Armageddon, but his science fiction tale The Island with Ewan McGregor and Scarlett Johannson sputtered with a mere $35 million (rumored budget: $126M).

And, finally, Jamie Foxx was coming off Oscar glory in Ray but his action thriller Stealth was grounded with a $32 million gross against its $76M budget.

And that’ll do it, ladies and gentlemen, for our look back at the summer offerings of 2005. I hope you enjoyed and rest assured you’ll see posts next summer tapping our nostalgia for 1996 and 2006!

15 for ’15: Todd’s Most Anticipated Movies of 2015

For movie lovers, the year 2015 has been eagerly awaited for a number of reasons. As you’ll see, tonight I am listing my 15 most anticipated pictures of the upcoming year. In order to prove how big next year could be (it’s widely expected to set records in terms of box office), here’s just some of what I left off:

The reboot of the Terminator series (Genisys) that returns Schwarzenegger

A big-budget Peter Pan reboot (Pan) starring Hugh Jackman

Iron Man director Jon Favreau’s The Jungle Book

Kenneth Branagh’s Cinderella

The latest films from notable directors like Guillermo del Toro (Crimson Peak), Michael Mann (Blackhat), the Wachowskis (Jupiter Ascending), Neill Blomkamp (Chappie), and Ron Howard (In the Heart of the Sea)

The film version of HBO’s Entourage

The seventh Fast and Furious entry which features Paul Walker’s final work

The Peanuts Movie where Charlie Brown and company finally come to the silver screen

So… what did make the cut? Read on:

15. The Fantastic Four

Release Date: August 7

20th Century Fox had solid box office results but a mediocre product with their two Fantastic Four pics that featured Jessica Alba, Michael Chiklis, and company. There is hope here with the reboot – Chronicle director Josh Trank is behind the camera with a cast that includes Miles Teller, Kate Mara, Michael B. Jordan, and Jamie Bell.

14. Mad Max: Fury Road

Release Date: May 15

Director George Miller’s return to the series that made Mel Gibson a star puts Tom Hardy in the title role with Charlize Theron and Nicholas Hoult supporting. I’ve always been curious about this one, but its inclusion in the list is much due to the fabulous trailer that was recently released.

13. Ted 2

Release Date: June 26

Seth MacFarlane’s 2012 original made a huge splash. It was one of the better comedies in recent years and earned $218 million domestically. Mark Wahlberg is back with MacFarlane voicing the vulgar bear.

12. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2

Release Date: November 20

I was a bit disappointed in Part 1, but hope still springs eternal for the finale of the franchise in which we’ll bid farewell to Katniss and company.

11. Jurassic World

Release Date: June 12

Colin Trevorrow takes over Universal’s dino franchise that Spielberg started. Star Lord himself, Chris Pratt, headlines the cast that includes Bryce Dallas Howard and Vincent D’Onofrio. Expect young moviegoers and those nostalgic for the original from over 20 years ago to RSVP.

10. Joy

Release Date: December 25

Jennifer Lawrence could find herself once again in awards conversations playing real life Joy Mangano, inventor of the Miracle Mop. Joy is easily included because of its director – David O. Russell, whose last three efforts (The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle) have all been Best Picture nominees.

9. Mission: Impossible 5

Release Date: December 25

This Tom Cruise franchise was completely reinvigorated with Brad Bird’s fourth flick, Ghost Protocol. Jeremy Renner, Ving Rhames, and Simon Pegg are back assisting Ethan Hunt with Jack Reacher‘s Christopher McQuarrie taking over directorial duties.

8. Ant-Man

Release Date: July 17

Never. Doubt. Marvel. Ever. They doubted that Iron Man could be a successful franchise. Same with Guardians of the Galaxy. So… if a picture called Ant-Man starring Paul Rudd sounds like a gamble, my guess is just wait. Peyton Reed directs with Evangeline Lilly and Michael Douglas costarring.

7. The Revenant

Release Date: December 25

Set in the 1800s, this drama finds Leonardo DiCaprio seeking revenge on thieves who left him to die. Tom Hardy costars with Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (maker of Birdman) directing.

6. Tomorrowland

Release Date: May 22

As mentioned earlier, Brad Bird infused life into the Mission: Impossible series recently. He also made classic Pixar titles The Incredibles and Ratatouille. Here he’s back with Disney making a secretive fantasy adventure that stars George Clooney and Hugh Laurie.

5. St. James Place

Release Date: October 16

It’s a Cold War thriller… directed by Steven Spielberg. Written by the Coen Brothers. Starring Tom Hanks. Enough said.

4. Avengers: Age of Ultron

Release Date: May 1

The follow-up to 2012’s mega blockbuster finds the gang all returning (including director Joss Whedon) with James Spader voicing the title character bad guy.

3. Spectre

Release Date: November 6

After the billion dollar worldwide gross of Skyfall, Daniel Craig is back for his fourth go round as 007 with double Oscar winner Christoph Waltz as the main villain. Sam Mendes returns to direct after the smashing Skyfall success.

2. The Hateful Eight

Release Date: Fall

For those who are familiar with this blog, you know that (in my mind) Quentin Tarantino has never made a movie that isn’t terrific. Let’s hope the trend continues here with this Western starring Samuel L. Jackson, Kurt Russell, Bruce Dern, Tim Roth, and Channing Tatum.

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Release Date: December 18

I mean… what else could possibly top new Tarantino? I’ve written plenty about it already so I won’t go on. Needless to say, the film world is breathlessly anticipating what JJ Abrams does with the most famous franchise in movie history.

And that’s all for now, folks! Here’s to a great 2015 and the pictures that populate it!

A Spectre and a Joker

While moviegoers this weekend will be left with only Thanksgiving leftovers to munch on, it’s been quite a week for film news.

Just today, the title of the 24th James Bond picture was revealed: Spectre. Longtime 007 fans know what this means. SPECTRE (it stands for Special Executive for Counter-Intelligence, Terrorism, Revenge and Extortion) is the dastardly organization that has been run by Ernst Stavro Blofeld during the franchise including Dr. No, Thunderball, You Only Live Twice, On Her Majesty’s Secret Service, and Diamonds Are Forever. The group appears to be heading back into Bond lore with two time Oscar winner Christoph Waltz playing the bad guy (whether or not he plays Blofeld is still a mystery). The official announcement this morning lists him playing a different character, but many suspect it’s a head fake and he’ll be stepping into role of Bond’s most iconic villain. Spectre will be out in November 2015 with Daniel Craig returning for his fourth outing as 007 and Skyfall director Sam Mendes behind the camera.

Speaking of iconic villains, news was confirmed this week that The Joker will return in Suicide Squad, Warner Bros. 2016 pic focusing on villains in the DC Comics Universe. Jared Leto, fresh off his Dallas Buyer’s Club Oscar, steps into the part made famous by Jack Nicholson first and then the late Heath Ledger (who picked up a posthumous Academy Award for his work). David Ayer (director of Fury) is heading up the project that also stars Will Smith, Tom Hardy, and Margot Robbie.

So there we have it! Potentially two beloved baddies with two Oscar certified actors filling the roles. Also – ICYMI, there was a trailer for something called Star Wars: The Force Awakens. I’ve posted it already, but it never hurts to watch again… and again.

The Trailer Awakens The Movie Geek

For movie geeks around the globe, this particular Black Friday will not be remembered for long lines at Wal-Mart or Best Buy. No no. Today has seen the debut of arguably the most eagerly awaited movie trailer of all time for Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which opens December 18, 2015.

There will all kinds of critiquing of the film’s 88 second trailer and I’ll leave that to others to pontificate on. Here’s my professional movie blogger reaction:

“OMG! THE MILLENNIUM FALCON!”

That about covers it. Why? Just the sight of Han Solo’s iconic spacecraft gave me movie geek goosebumps. After all, it’s George Lucas’s creation 37 years ago that spawned the blockbuster era we’ve been living in ever since. Harry Potter? The Avengers? The Hunger Games? They all owe a huge part of their existence to the galaxy far, far away.

The fact that we will see Mark Hamill, Harrison Ford, and Carrie Fisher return to the roles of Luke, Han, and Princess Leia is, frankly, a film lover’s bonus that was once thought highly unlikely. The fact that JJ Abrams is in control of the franchise’s new entry inspires nothing but confidence. The Force Awakens will be scrutinized on a level that is perhaps unheard of so far. At the very least, movie geeks hope it will easily eclipse the disappointing results from 1999 when The Phantom Menace simply didn’t meet expectations – for reasons more than just Jar Jar Binks.

Star Wars, at its best, has the ability to inspire hope in those who love it. And this trailer inspires that hope.

And did I mention – The Millennium Freakin’ Falcon?!?!?!?!

This Day in Movie History: January 31

17 years ago Today in Movie History – January 31 – the rerelease of Star Wars twenty years after its initial run shocked box office watchers with an astonishing $35.9 million opening. Its domestic total would reach $138 million to bring its total to $460 million overall. The original trilogy would all have special editions in the spring of 1997 and would occupy the #1 slot for six out of seven weeks.

As for birthdays, Kerry Washington is 37 today. She may be best known as the lead on the hit ABC drama “Scandal” but she captured moviegoers attention in 2012 as Jamie Foxx’s love interest in Django Unchained. Other notables film appearances include another go-round with Foxx in Ray, Fantastic Four and its sequel, and The Last King of Scotland.

Justin Timberlake is 33 today. Obviously, he’s known most as the current King of Pop, but he’s has some successes with his film career. This includes playing Napster founder Sean Parker in The Social Network and comedies Bad Teacher and Friends with Benefits. Other notable pictures include Black Snake Moan, In Time, and Inside Llewyn Davis.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between Ms. Washington and Mr. Timberlake:

Kerry Washington was in Django Unchained with Jamie Foxx

Jamie Foxx was in Any Given Sunday with Cameron Diaz

Cameron Diaz was in Bad Teacher with Justin Timberlake

And that’s today – January 31 – in Movie History!