Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Box Office Prediction

The saga continues in the most powerful franchise force in movie history when Rogue One: A Star Wars Story hits theaters next weekend. It’s been one year since Star Wars: The Force Awakens broke a slew of box office records when Disney took over the series, including best opening of all time and highest grossing domestic earner ever.

All seven pictures that have populated the science fiction tales have been classified as Episodes as part of an ongoing story featuring some of the most beloved and feared characters (plus Jar Jar) on the silver screen. Rogue is our first spin-off and it takes place between Episodes III (2005’s Revenge of the Sith) and IV (the 1977 original A New Hope). That means it focuses on the team tasked with stealing plans for the Death Star. Felicity Jones headlines a new cast of characters that includes Forest Whitaker, Diego Luna, Ben Mendelsohn, Mads Mikkelsen, Donnie Yen and Alan Tudyk. It also means the return of Darth Freakin’ Vader complete with James Earl Jones voicing him. Gareth Edwards (who lasted 2014’s successful Godzilla reboot) directs.

Simply put, the return of the franchise a year ago after ten years of dormancy couldn’t have gone much better financially. Awakens took in an astonishing $247 million out of the gate and reached a $936 million eventual domestic haul. The eagerly awaited Episode VIII will be out in the same mid-December weekend next year. Rogue One is not expected to take in what Force did last year or VIII will next year due to its spin-off status. That said, expectations are still very high.

So the question is: just how high can this go? Some reports have suggested a number between $130-$150 million and that’s certainly a feasible estimate. Yet I can’t shake a feeling that it’ll manage to get a bit more. Rogue is in the enviable position of being the first spin-off and arriving just a calendar year behind the franchise’s return to global domination. In order to accomplish 2016’s largest opening, it would need to top another huge Disney property, Captain America: Civil War which made $179 million to kick summer off.

I don’t think it quite gets there, but generating $160-$170 million seems within reach. My estimate would give it the eighth biggest debut of all time between the final Harry Potter at $169 million and this spring’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice at $166 million. Yes, my projection is a bit higher than what I’ve seen thus far. Yet it’s Star Wars, folks.

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story opening weekend prediction: $168.3 million

For my Collateral Beauty prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/06/collateral-beauty-box-office-prediction/

Top 25 Highest Grossing Actresses of All Time (20-16)

Continuing on with the Top 25 Highest Grossing Actresses in box office history, today brings us to part two and numbers 20-16.

In case you missed part one, you can find here it here –

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/09/top-25-highest-grossing-actresses-of-all-time-25-21/

Here we go:

20. Meryl Streep

Career Earnings: $2 billion

Franchises: None

Highest Grossing Picture: Mamma Mia! (2008) – $144 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 6 (Mamma Mia!, Into the Woods, The Devil Wears Prada, Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events, It’s Complicated, Kramer vs. Kramer)

Lowest Grosser: Dark Matter (2008) – $30,000

Overall Rank: 94

19. Amy Adams

Career Earnings: $2 billion

Franchises: Current Superman/Batman films

Highest Grossing Picture: Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) – $329 million

Number of $100M+ Earners: 7 (Batman v Superman, Man of Steel, Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian, Catch Me If You Can, American Hustle, Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby, Enchanted)

Lowest Grosser: Standing Still (2006) – $30,000

Overall Rank: 93

18. Natalie Portman

Career Earnings: $2 billion

Franchises: Star Wars episodes I-III, Thor

Highest Grossing Picture: Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace (1999) – $474 million

Numbers of $100M+ Earners: 6 (Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace, Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones, Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith, Black Swan, Thor, Thor: The Dark World)

Lowest Grosser: The Other Woman (2011) – $25,000

Overall Rank: 85

17. Sally Field

Career Earnings: $2 billion

Franchises: Second Spider-Man series

Highest Grossing Picture: Forrest Gump (1994) – $330 million

Numbers of $100M+ Earners: Forrest Gump, The Amazing Spider-Man, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Mrs. Doubtfire, Lincoln, Smokey and the Bandit

Lowest Grosser: Two Weeks (2006) – $47,000

Overall Rank: 94

16. Zoe Saldana

Career Earnings: $2 billion

Franchises: Star Trek (with Avatar and Guardians of the Galaxy soon to follow)

Highest Grossing Picture: Avatar (2009) – $760 million

Numbers of $100M+ Earners: 4 (Avatar, Guardians of the Galaxy, Star Trek, Star Trek Into Darkness)

Lowest Grosser: The Skeptic (2009) – $1,000

Overall Rank: 82

I’ll bring you numbers 15-11 tomorrow!

Summer 2005: The Top Ten Hits and More

Last week on the blog, we took a trip down nostalgia lane recounting the top ten summer movies from 20 years ago and other notable pictures and flops from that season. This evening, we go back a decade and have a look at what had moviegoers buzzing way back in 2005.

That summer’s top hit was the one we expected it to be as it marked the end of one trilogy that was considered disappointing. Yet it’s a performer in the middle of the pack that started one of the most beloved recent trilogies in recent film history.

Let’s go back in time, my friends:

10. The 40-Year-Old Virgin

Domestic Gross: $109 million

As Judd Apatow prepares to release his fifth feature with Trainwreck on Friday, this is where it started with him as this critically acclaimed comedy rocketed Steve Carell into movie stardom.

9. Fantastic Four

Domestic Gross: $154 million

Critics may not have dug it (27% on Rotten Tomatoes) but the adaptation of the famed Marvel Comic with Jessica Alba and Michael Chiklis scored with audiences enough to warrant a 2007 sequel. A new franchise reboot hits theaters this August.

8. The Longest Yard

Domestic Gross: $158 million

Adam Sandler took over the Burt Reynolds role in this remake of the 1974 prison football comedy with Chris Rock and Reynolds himself costarring.

7. Mr. & Mrs. Smith

Domestic Gross: $186 million

The action comedy from director Doug Liman earned plenty of headlines due to the real life romance between stars Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie and hefty box office came along with it. The couple will reunite onscreen again in this fall’s By the Sea. 

6. Madagascar

Domestic Gross: $193 million

With no Pixar film on the docket, Dreamworks Madagascar was the top animated feature of the summer and has since spawned two sequels and a spin-off.

5. Batman Begins

Domestic Gross: $205 million

It’s hard to remember now, but Chris Nolan’s reboot of the Dark Knight’s world did quite well, but wasn’t a mega ton blockbuster like its 2008 and 2012 sequels would be. Still, it immediately wiped the bad taste out of the mouth of audiences left by Joel Schumacher’s Batman and Robin from eight summers ago. Of course, this began the trilogy that has become the gold standard in superhero flicks.

4. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

Domestic Gross: $206 million

Tim Burton’s retelling of Roald Dahl’s classic book starred Johnny Depp as Willy Wonka. It may not have the beloved status as 1971’s offering with Gene Wilder, but it made the studio very happy with its massive earnings.

3. Wedding Crashers

Domestic Gross: $209 million

The sleeper hit of the season paired Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson and helped invigorate (along with #10 Virgin) the R-rated comedy. The two would appear again in the considerably less successful The Internship eight years later.

2. War of the Worlds

Domestic Gross: $234 million

Steven Spielberg directed Tom Cruise in this version of H.G. Wells renowned sci-fi novel and crowds turned out in droves so much that it’s Mr. Cruise’s highest grossing domestic earner of all time.

1. Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith

Domestic Gross: $380 million

Sith easily took the crown for the summer’s champion and it concluded George Lucas’s second trilogy that received mixed reactions from critics and audiences… and that’s putting it kindly. This third episode is widely considered an improvement over Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones. Of course, we’ll see what JJ Abrams manages to do this December when Episode 7 is released… in case you hadn’t heard.

And now, some other notable pictures outside the top ten:

13. March of the Penguins

Domestic Gross: $77 million

This little French documentary that could astonished box office watchers with its magnificent stateside gross. Bottom line: people dig penguins.

18. Cinderella Man

Domestic Gross: $61 million

Critics mostly lauded Ron Howard’s Depression era boxing tale with Russell Crowe and Renee Zellwegger, but it under performed at the box office at the time of its release (not quite enough to put it in the total flop column though).

20. Crash

Domestic Gross: $54 million

Paul Haggis’s L.A. set racial drama came out of nowhere to score solid business. It went on to win Best Picture, which was a surprise over front runner Brokeback Mountain, which came out in the fall.

And now for the flops…

Nicole Kidman and Will Ferrell headlined Nora Ephron’s Bewitched, based on the 1960s TV comedy. Audiences and critics reacted with ambivalence and the $85 million budgeted pic managed just $63 million domestically.

Ridley Scott’s Kingdom of Heaven with Orlando Bloom captured none of the director’s Gladiator magic and it earned $47 million against its reported $130 million budget.

Michael Bay had found huge success with the Bad Boys movies, The Rock, and Armageddon, but his science fiction tale The Island with Ewan McGregor and Scarlett Johannson sputtered with a mere $35 million (rumored budget: $126M).

And, finally, Jamie Foxx was coming off Oscar glory in Ray but his action thriller Stealth was grounded with a $32 million gross against its $76M budget.

And that’ll do it, ladies and gentlemen, for our look back at the summer offerings of 2005. I hope you enjoyed and rest assured you’ll see posts next summer tapping our nostalgia for 1996 and 2006!