Celebrating its 50th anniversary is the OG summer blockbuster and it’s out in multiplexes over Labor Day weekend. That would be Steven Spielberg’s Jaws with Roy Scheider, Robert Shaw, Richard Dreyfuss, Lorraine Gary, Murray Hamilton, an unforgettable score, and a mechanical shark that sometimes worked and mostly didn’t.
Unquestionably one of the most influential and iconic pictures in cinematic history, it surpassed The Godfather in 1975 as the highest grossing movie ever (holding that record until Star Wars two years later).
Unadjusted for inflation, Spielberg’s first blockbuster stands at $477 million worldwide (nearly $3 billion in today’s bucks). The milestone birthday could add mid to possibly high single digits over the four-day holiday to its coffers.
Jaws 50th Anniversary opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
In Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck, I found myself more emotionally invested in the concept than the characters. That doesn’t appear to be an accident as we ponder the big themes and equally sized swings taken by the adaptation of Stephen King’s novella. We’re meant to see ourselves in the experiences of the title character during his 39 years and they are great years as we’re told and occasionally shown. There are moments scattered throughout where the heart tugging feels effortless and others where the cosmic machinations emanating from its screenplay feels… something else. Not necessarily forced, but slightly underwhelming in its impact because of our limited time with Tom Hiddleston’s Chuck in his adult years. Ultimately I valued seeing highlights and lowlights of his journey.
The film is told in reverse chronology. It should be noted that a spoiler free review is challenging, but I’ll try my best. Chuck opens in act three of three with middle school teacher Marty (Chiwetel Ejiofor) presiding over a dwindling class size as natural disasters and other happenings are putting the planet on course for a seemingly slow death. His parent-teacher conferences are both sad and humorous and it affords David Dastmalchian with an amusing cameo. Sad and humorous are a fair description for this first/third act as Marty attempts to reconnect with his ex-wife, nurse Felicia (Karen Gillan). Much of the comedy comes from the bizarre sightings of Chuck Krantz (Tom Hiddleston). As the Earth crumbles, the bespectacled accountant appears to be the only constant. He pops up in TV ads and park benches and billboards thanking him for “39 Great Years!” No one seems to recall where they know him from or if they do and no one can explain his sudden omnipresence.
It’s in act two and when we meet the numbers cruncher in the flesh as Hiddleston and then younger versions played by Benjamin Pajak as a preteen and Jacob Tremblay as a near adult. This isn’t really a spoiler as we’re told by the Narrator (a delightfully droll Nick Offerman) that Chuck’s 39 years do not extend to 40. The third act explores an often tragic upbringing raised by Grandpa, or zayde, Albie (Mark Hamill) and kindly Grandma/bubbe Sarah (Mia Sara). From the latter is where Chuck develops a love for many forms of dance. From the former is where he is told to avoid dancing to the beat of his own drum in favor a safer route (like an accounting career). It’s in the middle sequence where grownup Chuck grooves to the rhythm of someone else’s drum and that easily gives us the picture’s strongest moments of pure joy.
Chuck features plenty of recognizable faces from iconic movies. There is no star as even Hiddleston’s title character has limited screen time. Of course, his elders are Luke Skywalker and Sloane from Ferris Bueller’s Day Off. Both shine as shapers of Chuck’s near four decades. Matthew Lillard and Carl Lumbly pop up as armageddon approaches in the first third while Heather Langenkamp (Nancy from A Nightmare on Elm Street) dispatches advice to young Chuck in the the last.
Once the overall concept is unlocked, it flirts with and sometimes falls victim to becoming anticlimactic. Chuck’s world may not provide a great near two hour viewing recounting his near 40. However, it still manages to pack enough pleasures and pathos that it feels consequential.
Disney looks to squeeze more bucks out of a blue chip franchise with the 20th anniversary re-release of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith. It is the culmination of the oft criticized second trilogy in the vaunted franchise and this is generally considered the strongest of the three. Marking the last picture directed by series creator George Lucas, this one-week engagement could manage to bring the faithful and more out.
Last May, Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace was put back into multiplexes for its 25th anniversary. Results were better than anticipated with an $8.7 million debut. The second installment – Attack of the Clones – is not being granted a theatrical comeback. Pre-sales for Sith are quite encouraging and suggest this could double the Phantom figures. I’ll predict this gets past $20 million for what could be anywhere from a second to fourth place premiere.
Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith opening weekend prediction: $22.6 million
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days.
It begins with Supporting Actor. When I gave you my first picks in 2024, it yielded one eventual nominee. That happened to be the winner with Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. Under the 10 other possibilities, I correctly called another contender in Culkin’s Succession costar Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice). Yura Borisov (Anora), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), and Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) were not identified at this early juncture.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor. And there will be movies were not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.
This premiere post projects that Colman Domingo will earn his third nod in as many years after lead actor attempts for Rustin and Sing Sing as troubled Jackson family patriarch Joseph in Michael. We could also see Star Wars legend Mark Hamill nab a slot for Toronto Film Festival Audience winner The Life of Chuck and Adam Sandler see his first recognition for Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly.
Here’s the first snapshot with Supporting Actress up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
Former and future Star Wars lead Daisy Ridley is generating some career best notices for Young Woman and the Sea, out this weekend in limited fashion. Originally slated for a Disney Plus only rollout, Norwegian filmmaker Joachim Rønning (director of 2012’s internationally nominated Kon-Tiki) helms the true life 1920s set sports biopic. Ridley plays swimming champion Gertrude Ederle with a supporting cast including Christopher Eccleston, Stephen Graham, Tilda Cobham-Hervey, Kim Bodnia, and Glenn Fleshler.
The Disney/Bruckheimer production has not been heavily marketed and the studios may have missed an opportunity. I’m sure it’ll eventually gain eyeballs once it does move to streaming. Reviews indicate it’s an old-fashioned solid crowdpleaser. The RT score is 86%.
We saw Annette Bening nominated at the preceding Oscars in Actress for inhabiting a well-known swimmer in Nyad. I doubt that will occur with Ridley despite many critics lapping it up. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is poised to rule over the box office charts as it looks for a similar opening to its predecessors. We also have Not Another Church Movie, spoofing the Tyler Perry assembly line of features out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
I have Kingdom premiering similarly to 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes and 2017’s War for the Planet of the Apes and even a smidge higher. I don’t foresee it reaching the heights of 2014’s Dawn of the Planet of the Apes at $72 million.
As for Church, I’m forecasting its number of parishioners gives it a mid single digits start and that should mean a third place showing. I do believe it has a shot at over performance, per my individual write-up. It could also flame out in the low single digits (this is a tough one).
There’s no question that The Fall Guy did not exceed expectations. In fact, the action comedy with Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt came in at the lowest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). An A- Cinemascore could mean the sophomore drop won’t be too damaging, but I suspect high 40s to low 50s is where the dip will be.
Holdovers Challengers and the re-release of Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace should round out the top five. The latter’s first weekend back in theaters is probably front loaded. Therefore I see Phantom sliding from 2nd to 5th and Challengers only down one spot in fourth.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $55.2 million
2. The Fall Guy
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million
3. Not Another Church Movie
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
4. Challengers
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
5. Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menance
Predicted Gross: $4 million
Box Office Results (May 3-5)
Despite the Barbenheimer pedigree (the pics that ruled summer 2023), The Fall Guy‘s performance was stunted at just $27.7 million. That’s well under my $38.3 million prediction and a letdown considering the reported $150 million price tag. For the past decade and a half, the MCU/Disney has owned the first weekend of May that marks the official start of cinematic summer. With that franchise sitting it out, audiences responded with indifference to the Gosling and Blunt show.
The Mouse Factory did bank some more cash for its Star Wars franchise. Marking its 25th anniversary and despite its checkered reputation, the re-release of The Phantom Menace took in $8.7 million for second place. It certainly didn’t hurt that Saturday fell on May 4th (a sacred date for many fans). That tops my $6.8 million forecast as the first episode is now at $483 million stateside in the last quarter century.
Challengers was third with $7.5 million, on target with my $7.9 million call. Zendaya’s sports drama eased an expected 49% to bring its two-week total to $29 million.
Poorly reviewed horror flick Tarot had a fourth place debut in the cards with $6.5 million, a bit over my $5.6 million projection. Look for this to fade fast as have other recent genre offerings.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire rounded out the top five with $4.5 million (I said $4.7 million) to bring its haul to $188 million after six weeks.
Finally, faith-based drama Unsung Hero fell considerably further in weekend #2 than I figured. In seventh place, its $2.9 million gross was well under my estimate of $5.4 million. The total is $13 million.
In the spring of 1997, 20th Century Fox re-released the original Star Wars trilogy to impressive box office numbers. Timed to the 20th anniversary of Episode IV, it helped build already sky high anticipation for 1999’s Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace. Now 25 years after its debut, Disney/20th Century Studios has it back in multiplexes.
George Lucas’s return behind the camera was probably the most breathlessly awaited movie of all time a quarter century ago. It broke records in its initial release and ended up with a domestic haul of $431 million. A 3D re-release in 2012 pushed it to $474 million.
Carefully timed so that the Saturday falls on May 4th (a sacred day for followers of the franchise), Phantom will try to push its stateside total to nearly half a billion. Of course, Menace is not beloved in the way that episodes 4-6 are. Back in ’97, the Star Wars re-release took in nearly $36 million out of the gate. A few weeks later, The Empire Strikes Back debuted to $21.9 million while Return of the Jedi made off with $16.2 million.
Phantom is not expected to reach those figures and may even struggle to hit double digits. Yet with a reported 2600 screens, it should manage a second or third place premiere and I’ll give it mid single digits.
Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace re-release opening weekend prediction: $6.8 million
Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire is out in limited release today before its Thursday bow on Netflix. Zack Snyder directs the space epic with a cast including Sofia Boutella, Charlie Hunnam, Michiel Huisman, Djimon Hounsou, Doona Bae, Ray Fisher, Cleopatra Coleman, Jena Malone, Fra Fee, Ed Skrein, and Anthony Hopkins.
With part two hitting theaters and the streamer in April of 2024, there is more than one writer saying this is Snyder’s attempt at making Star Wars. However, most reviews claim he doesn’t succeed. The Rotten Tomatoes score is only 26%.
One area getting some critical praise are the production values, specifically the visual effects. Rebel is reportedly on the shortlist on 20 possibilities for VE at the Oscars. In my last round of predictions, I had it in the final quintet in fifth. Yet the poor reaction thus far makes me question whether it makes it all the way. I’m more skeptical now than I was yesterday though VE is one race where solid reviews isn’t necessarily a prerequisite. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Marsh King’s Daughter is based on an acclaimed 2017 thriller by Karen Dionne, but the cinematic adaptation seems to be flying well under the radar. It opens tomorrow with Daisy Ridley of Star Wars fame headlining the cast alongside Ben Mendelsohn, Garrett Hedlund, Caren Pistorius, Brooklyn Prince, and Gil Birmingham. The Illusionist and Divergent director Neil Burger is behind the camera.
STXfilms was originally supposed to distribute Daughter before the company shuttered and now Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions are sharing output duties. Promotion has been scant and reviews are mixed with a 56% score on Rotten Tomatoes.
This might have had better luck going direct to streaming and skipping multiplexes. In addition to the box office challenges it faces, reaction guarantees it’ll be a non-factor on the awards circuit. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As the fourth day of May is upon us, it occurred to me that I’ve never done an official ranking of the 11 Star Wars movies that kicked off 46 years ago today.
I’m not going to go into detail beyond the actual numbers other than to say the following:
My #1 is the one most would pick so no points for originality there.
I do not, however, hold the first trilogy at 1-2-3. Yes, rewatches of Return of the Jedi through the years have lowered my opinion (especially compared to its predecessors).
I do not look at The Force Awakens as a disappointing retread of the 1977 original as its reputation has increasingly become. And I’m a pretty big admirer of its follow-up The Last Jedi. Not so much for The Rise of Skywalker.
Here’s my personal list (from weakest to strongest) of the series!
11. Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones (2002)
10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (2018)
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2019)
8. Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace (1999)
7. Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith (2005)
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