Oscar Watch – Spider-Man: Homecoming

When Spider-Man: Homecoming swings into theaters next weekend, it will do so as one of the most critically acclaimed entries of a franchise that began 15 years ago. The superhero reboot currently stands at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes with many critics praising the work of new Spidey Tom Holland and Michael Keaton as main villain Vulture.

Homecoming is the sixth picture of the series. Tobey Maguire’s Spider-Man in 2002 landed two Oscars nods – Best Visual Effects and Sound Mixing. Its 2004 sequel scored three – Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects (for which it won). The following three efforts – 2007’s Spider-Man 3 and 2012’s The Amazing Spider-Man and its 2014 sequel with Andrew Garfield – received zero nominations.

The new web slinger reboot is one of three comic book pics in 2017 that have earned rave reviews, along with Logan and Wonder Woman. I do anticipate there will be significant chatter as to whether one of them becomes the first superhero flick to get a Best Picture nomination. That said, I suspect the bulk of that speculation will center on Wonder Woman and not this. It could manage to be included in Visual Effects, but competition already appears strong with the likes of Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Dunkirk, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Blade Runner 2049, War for the Planet of the Apes, and others.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Spider-Man: Homecoming Box Office Prediction

It was 15 summers ago when Spider-Man scored the largest domestic opening of all time (at that juncture) and helped kick off the comic book adaptation bonanza that has yet to let up today. We are now on our third web slinger iteration as Spider-Man: Homecoming swings into theaters next weekend.

Of course, this is not our first time seeing Tom Holland as the new Spidey. He first appeared in last summer’s Captain America: Civil War. In this first solo effort, none other than Robert Downey Jr.’s Iron Man is appearing alongside him. Jon Watts directs with a supporting cast that includes Michael Keaton as the villainous Vulture, Marisa Tomei, Donald Glover, Jon Favreau, and Zendaya.

This co-production of Columbia Pictures and Marvel Studios comes with a reported $175 million budget and lofty expectations. The second reboot of the beloved superhero series certainly is benefited by the new Spidey’s place in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and his Avenger friends.

Homecoming is the sixth overall flick headlined by Spider-Man. Let’s take a trip down franchise lane, shall we?

In looking at the opening grosses of the five previous entries, it’s a bit of a web since some opened over long holiday weekends. The 2002 original made the aforementioned record-setting sum of $114 million out of the gate and $403M overall domestically. The 2004 follow-up opened over a five-day July 4th weekend with $88 million from Friday to Sunday, $151 million from Wednesday to Sunday, and $373M when all was said and done. 2007’s Spider-Man 3 (marking the final appearance of Tobey Maguire in the title role) set the franchise record opening of $151 million, but grossed $336M in total – the lowest of the trilogy. Five years later when Andrew Garfield inherited the tights, The Amazing Spider-Man rolled out over a long six-day July 4th frame with $62 million in the traditional weekend and $137 million over the long weekend. It would go on to make $262M. 2014’s sequel made $91 million for its start and a series low $202M overall.

Got all that? OK! So where does Homecoming stand in comparison? Let’s leave its predecessors alone for just a second as it’s unlikely this will match the overall grosses of this summer’s previous comic book tentpoles Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Wonder Woman. Both of those pics look to near $400 million domestically and place first and second for the season’s top earners. At one time, projections for the new Spidey were as high as $135 million, but they’ve since steadily declined. I believe this will reach over just over what the first picture accomplished a decade and a half ago.

Spider-Man: Homecoming opening weekend prediction: $117.8 million