We’ve seen a number of films about the sweet science over the past few years and another one hits theaters next weekend as BleedforThis debuts. The true story tells the tale of pugilist Vinny Pazienza (Miles Teller), who looks to return to the ring after a debilitating accident. Ben Younger, who directed 2000’s well-regarded BoilerRoom, followed it up with the less regarded Uma Thurman/Meryl Streep rom com Prime, and hadn’t made a movie since – is behind the camera. Costars include Aaron Eckhart, Ciaran Hinds, Katey Sagal, and Ted Levine.
Bleed debuted at the Telluride Film Festival in September to generally positive reaction. It’s at 77% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. The boxing genre has seen some successes this decade with titles such as TheFighter and Creed. On the other hand, Southpaw and especially August’s HandsofStone struggled.
This one could face an uphill battle. Luckily for its studio, it comes with a light $6 million budget so a knockout gross isn’t really required. I anticipate a middle single digits start.
Bleed for This opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million
For my FantasticBeastsandWheretoFindThem prediction, click here:
We arrive at my weekly Oscar predictions and a new wrinkle has been added. I’m predicting every category with the exception of Foreign and Documentary (those will eventually be added).
As with last week, I’ll ranking according to my feelings on likelihood of the films and performers being nominated and let you know what’s changed since last week. The pluses and minuses and no changes indicated their ranking from last week to this week.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Spotlight (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
Room (No Change)
Brooklyn (+3)
Carol (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
The Big Short (+2)
Other Possibilities:
10. Inside Out (No Change)
11. The Hateful Eight (-2)
12. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+11)
13. Trumbo (+6)
14. Son of Saul (+3)
15. The Danish Girl (+1)
16. Sicario (+5)
17. Beasts of No Nation (-3)
18. Steve Jobs (-5)
19. Straight Outta Compton (-4)
20. Creed (-8)
21. Joy (-2)
22. Love and Mercy (-1)
23. Anomalisa (-6)
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: The Big Short. OUT: The Hateful Eight.
Best Director
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (No Change)
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (No Change)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)
7. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
8. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+9)
9. John Crowley, Brooklyn (No Change)
10. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-2)
11. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+1)
12. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (+1)
13. Jay Roach, Trumbo (Previously Not Ranked)
14. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (+2)
15. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (-1)
16. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation (-5)
17. Ryan Coogler, Creed (-7)
DROPPED OUT: David O. Russell, Joy
What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (+1)
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (-1)
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (+1)
Johnny Depp, Black Mass (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Martian (No Change)
7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)
8. Michael Caine, Youth (+3)
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (No Change)
10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
11. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (+2)
12. Steve Carell, The Big Short (No Change)
13. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (-5)
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Actress
Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (No Change)
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
7. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+2)
8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (-2)
9. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)
10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (No Change)
11. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette (+1)
12. Lily Tomlin, Grandma (-1)
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Michael Keaton, Spotlight (+1)
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+1)
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (+1)
Sylvester Stallone, Creed (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (+4)
7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (-1)
8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (No Change)
9. Christian Bale, The Big Short (-2)
10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)
11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-2)
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Supporting Actress
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (No Change)
Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+4)
7. Jane Fonda, Youth (-2)
8. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (-2)
9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)
10. Joan Allen, Room (-2)
DROPPED OUT: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Helen Mirren, OUT: Jane Fonda.
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight (No Change)
Inside Out (+1)
The Hateful Eight (-1)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Love and Mercy (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Son of Saul (-1)
7. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Not Ranked)
8. 99 Homes (No Change)
9. Sicario (+1)
10. Ex Machina (+1)
11. Straight Outta Compton (-4)
12. Youth (Previously Not Ranked)
13. Joy (-4)
14. Trainwreck (-2)
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Love and Mercy. OUT: Son of Saul.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Room (+2)
Brooklyn (+2)
Carol (-2)
The Big Short (+1)
Steve Jobs (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (+1)
7. Trumbo (+3)
8. The Revenant (-2)
9. Beasts of No Nation (No Change)
10. Anomalisa (-2)
11. The Danish Girl (+1)
DROPPED OUT: Creed
What’s Changed Since Last Week: No Changes
Best Animated Feature (First Time Predictions)
Inside Out
Anomalisa
Kahlil Gobran’s The Prophet
Shaun the Sheep Movie
The Good Dinosaur
Other Possibilities:
6. The Peanuts Movie
7. When Marnie Was There
8. Home
Best Cinematography (First Time Predictions)
The Hateful Eight
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Sicario
Other Possibilities:
6. Carol
7. Bridge of Spies
8. The Danish Girl
Best Production Design (First Time Predictions)
Carol
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
Cinderella
Bridge of Spies
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. Brooklyn
8. The Martian
9. The Hateful Eight
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
11. MacBeth
Best Editing (First Time Predictions)
Spotlight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Big Short
Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight
7. The Martian
8. Bridge of Spies
9. Room
Best Costume Design (First Time Predictions)
Carol
Cinderella
Brooklyn
The Danish Girl
Far from the Madding Crowd
Other Possibilities:
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. Suffragette
8. Trumbo
9. The Hateful Eight
10. MacBeth
Best Makeup and Hairstyling (First Time Predictions)
The Danish Girl
Carol
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Other Possibilities:
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Black Mass
6. Pan
7. The Hateful Eight
8. The Revenant
Best Visual Effects (First Time Predictions)
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Jurassic World
The Walk
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. In the Heart of the Sea
8. Ex Machina
Best Sound Mixing (First Time Predictions)
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Revenant
Sicario
Other Possibilities:
6. Jurassic World
7. The Hateful Eight
8. In the Heart of the Sea
Best Sound Editing (First Time Predictions)
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
In the Heart of the Sea
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario
7. The Hateful Eight
8. Jurassic World
Best Original Score (First Time Predictions)
The Hateful Eight
Carol
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Sicario
9. Brooklyn
10. Mad Max: Fury Road
11. Southpaw
Best Original Song (First Time Predictions)
“Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground
“See You Again” from Furious 7
“Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey
“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre
“Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey
Other Possibilities:
6. “Simple Song #3” from Youth
7. “One Kind of Love” from Love and Mercy
8. “So Long” from Concussion
Whew! Those predictions reflect a current belief of the following films garnering nominations with number included:
9 Nominations
Carol
8 Nominations
Mad Max: Fury Road
7 Nominations
The Revenant
6 Nominations
The Danish Girl, The Martian, Spotlight
5 Nominations
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4 Nominations
Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Hateful Eight, Steve Jobs
3 Nominations
The Big Short, Room
2 Nominations
Cinderella, Fifty Shades of Grey, Inside Out, Love and Mercy, Sicario, Trumbo
1 Nomination
Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunting Ground, In the Heat of the Sea, Joy, Jurassic World, Kahlil Gabron’s The Prophet, Shaun the Sheep Movie, Spectre, The Walk
August brings in four new titles for moviegoers to consider this weekend: the big budget reboot of Fantastic Four, psychological thriller The Gift, Meryl Streep’s comedic drama Ricki and the Flash, and British stop motion animated pic Shaun the Sheep Movie. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I actually expect all four newbies to find themselves in the top five. Fantastic Four should have no trouble opening at #1, though I must say the anticipation for this seems less than your typical comic book movie.
After its strong debut, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation should drop to second, losing about half its audience. My predictions have The Gift having a robust opening at third with Ricki and the Flash and Shaun the Sheep Movie rounding out the top five. Due to its less than anticipated roll out over the weekend, Vacation should fall out of the top five in only its second frame.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Fantastic Four
Predicted Gross: $47.7 million
2. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Predicted Gross: $28.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)
3. The Gift
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million
4. Ricki and the Flash
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. Shaun the Sheep Movie
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
Box Office Results (July 31-August 2)
Tom Cruise’s fifth appearance as super agent Ethan Hunt in Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation posted positive results as the critically acclaimed sequel earned $55.5 million, a bit above my $52.3M. This finds the franchise in very good shape and a sixth flick has already been confirmed.
Meanwhile, the critically drubbed Vacation reboot got off to a shaky start with $14.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $21 million since its Wednesday premiere. This is below my respective estimates of $17.1M and $24.7M. With a middling B score from Cinemascore, I don’t see this holding up well as moviegoers mostly rejected a return to Wally World.
As for holdovers, Ant-Man dropped to third after two weeks on top with $12.8 million compared to my $11.4M projection. The Marvel pic has amassed $132 million so far. Minions took fourth with $12.3 million, in line with my $11.8M prediction and its total stands at $287 million. The Adam Sandler dud Pixels was fifth with $10.5 million in weekend two, right on target with my $10.3M estimate. Its weak cume is $45 million. Trainwreck was sixth with $9.6 million (I said $10.2M) and it’s made $79 million in three weeks. Southpaw dipped a bit further in its sophomore weekend than I foresaw with $7.6 million compared to my $9.5M projection for a $31 million total so far.
As July comes to a close, two new entries look to nab the top spots at the box office this weekend as Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation and comedy reboot Vacation debut. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Tom Cruise’s fifth go round as Ethan Hunt should have no problem at all taking the #1 spot while I look for Vacation to land in the runner-up spot.
As for holdovers, I look for Minions to hold up better than current champ Ant-Man, allowing them to place third and fourth. Adam Sandler’s Pixels had a very poor premiere (more on that below) and I look for it to experience the heftiest decline, putting it in a close race for fifth with Trainwreck and Southpaw.
And with that, we’ll do a top seven predictions for this weekend:
1. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Predicted Gross: $52.3 million
2. Vacation
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $24.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
3. Minions
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)
4. Ant-Man
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)
5. Pixels
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million (representing a drop of 56%)
6. Trainwreck
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 41%)
7. Southpaw
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 43%)
Box Office Results (July 24-26)
Marvel’s Ant-Man surprisingly held onto the #1 slot in its second weekend with $24.9 million, in line with my $25.6M projection. It has grossed a solid $106M in its first ten days of release.
The “surprise” is that Pixels was expected to top the charts, yet it tanked with a $24 million opening – less than half of my extremely generous $49M prediction. The critically panned video game pic represents another poor performance from Adam Sandler, whose box office star has been waning in recent years.
Minions was third with $22.9 million, on target with my $23.4M estimate and the animated hit has brought in $262M.
Trainwreck held up admirably for fourth in weekend #2 with $17.2 million (a bit under my $18.7M prediction) for a total of $61 million. The Judd Apatow comedy should top $100M when all is said and done.
Jake Gyllenhaal’s boxing drama Southpaw exceeded most expectations with a sturdy $16.7 million, ahead of my $12.9M projection.
Finally, teen romance Paper Towns (based on a John Green bestseller) had a less than expected roll out with just $12.6 million, considerably below my $26.8M estimate. While Towns has a tiny budget and will easily profit, this is disappointing considering The Fault in Our Stars (also based on a Green novel) made $48M out of the gate last summer.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
Three new titles populate the multiplex this weekend as the video game inspired family comedy Pixels, adaptation of John Green bestseller Paper Towns, and Jake Gyllenhaal boxing drama Southpaw all debut. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:
I expect Pixels to easily nab the #1 spot, though it is worth noting that my prediction is higher than some other prognosticators are putting it at. And to be fair, I overestimated Ant-Man this past weekend (more on that below). Still, it’s tough to imagine it not debuting in first place.
It could be a very tight race between Paper Towns, Ant-Man, and Minions for the runner-up position. I am estimating Towns manages to get there with Ant-Man and Minions losing over half their previous frame audiences in their respective second and third weekends.
Amy Schumer’s comedy Trainwreck should suffer the smallest decline of holdovers after its robust roll out. That would leave Southpaw outside of the top five with a sixth place showing and it’ll certainly need to greatly exceed expectations to avoid that fate.
And with that, it’s a top 6 predictions this weekend:
1. Pixels
Predicted Gross: $49 million
2. Paper Towns
Predicted Gross: $26.8 million
3. Ant-Man
Predicted Gross: $25.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)
4. Minions
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million (representing a drop of 52%)
5. Trainwreck
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million (representing a drop of 37%)
6. Southpaw
Predicted Gross: $12.9 milion
Box Office Results (July 17-19)
Disney/Marvel once again saw its product debut at #1, but Ant-Man managed just the 11th highest opening in their 12 film Marvel Cinematic Universe (only 2008’s The Incredible Hulk started lower). The Paul Rudd pic grossed $57.2 million, well under my $73.3M estimate. Still, expectations were not quite as sky high for this entry and it represents a decent gross, albeit on the lower end of the scale.
Minions dropped to second with $49.2 million, under my $56.9M prediction. The Despicable Me spin-off has amassed $215 million in ten days.
Amy Schumer became a movie star over the weekend as her critically acclaimed Trainwreck posted a fantastic $30 million opening, just ahead of my $27.8M projection. As mentioned, I anticipate solid word of mouth to keep this chugging along over the next couple of weekends.
Pixar’s Inside Out was fourth with $11.5 million (I said $10.5M) for a total of $306 million while Jurassic World was fifth with $11.4 million (I said $11.1M) for an amazing $611 million current gross.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
A ripped Jake Gyllenhaal headlines the boxing drama Southpaw, out Friday and it will attempt to bring in adult moviegoers looking for something out than effects driven sci-fi spectacles and sequels. Antoine Fuqua, director of Training Day and The Equalizer, is behind the camera with Forest Whitaker, Rachel McAdams, and 50 Cent among the supporting cast. 50’s protege Eminem is featured prominently on the soundtrack and in the trailers and TV spots.
Gyllenhaal has been on a roll lately, particularly in the critical community. Last fall’s Nightcrawler gave the actor some of the best reviews of his career and many (including this blogger) feel he was snubbed for a nomination at Oscar time. Southpaw gives him another juicy role, but early word is somewhat mixed (it stands at 60% on Rotten Tomatoes at press time). Gyllenhaal’s recent track record suggests an opening in the low double to digits to mid teens could be a real possibility here. 2011’s Source Code debuted to $14.8 million while the following year’s End of Watch made $13.1 million out of the gate. The aforementioned Nightcrawler premiered with $10.4 million. I have a difficult time envisioning this matching his best opening of recent years – 2013’s Prisoners which made $20.8 million.
I’ll predict Southpaw is left with a start right in range with End of Watch, which would be fairly decent considering its rumored $30 million budget.
Southpaw opening weekend prediction: $12.9 million
In less than one month, the Summer 2015 Movie Season will be upon us! That means studios will be bringing out their big wannabe blockbusters with sequels, reboots, animated tales, comic book heroes, and a surprisingly robust group of potentially intriguing comedies.
Therefore, I am bringing you my personal 15 most anticipated summer movies for the year. Let me talk briefly about some pictures that didn’t quite make the cut. I left off animated fare such as Pixar’s Inside Out and Despicable Me spin-off Minions. Same goes for Pitch Perfect 2, Magic Mike XXL and the film version of HBO’s Entourage. And then there’s a film I figured would make the cut: Terminator: Genisys that marks Arnold Schwarzenegger’s return to his iconic role after 12 years. Why? Quite frankly, I wasn’t crazy about the trailer. Don’t get me wrong – I’m still highly curious to watch it.
I will be breaking up my list in three installments and we begin this evening with numbers 15-11. Subsequent posts covering the top ten will arrive Friday and Saturday.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
15. Spy
Release Date: June 5
Originally, I probably wouldn’t have figured Melissa McCarthy’s new comedy would make the cut. That’s until reviews from screenings at South by Southwest came out and they indicate this is the star’s best feature so far. It doesn’t hurt that Paul Feig, director of McCarthy’s Bridesmaids and The Heat is behind the camera. Jude Law, Rose Byrne, and Jason Statham co-star.
14. Masterminds
Release Date: August 14
From the director of Napoleon Dynamite comes this heist comedy with a killer cast: Zach Galifianakis, Kristin Wiig, Owen Wilson, and Jason Sudeikis. The trailer inspires hope.
13. Vacation
Release Date: July 31
Yes, they’re rebooting the Vacation franchise with Ed Helms and Leslie Mann as grown-up Rusty and Audrey and Chevy Chase and Beverly D’Angelo back as Clark and Ellen. Christina Applegate, Chris Hemsworth, and Charlie Day round out the cast. Here’s to hoping this is more like the original and Christmas Vacation than Vegas Vacation. No trailer has been released at press time.
12. Southpaw
Release Date: July 24
Jake Gyllenhall has been on a roll lately choosing his projects, including last year’s terrific Nightcrawler. This sports drama sees him playing a boxer with serious family issues. It also sees him heavily bulked up in a pic that could get awards attention, like 2010’s The Fighter. Antoine Fuqua directs (he made Training Day and The Equalizer) and Rachel McAdams and Forest Whitaker co-star.
11. Fantastic Four
Released Date: August 7
The first two installments of the famed Marvel comic books (the ones with Jessica Alba and Michael Chiklis) were decent size hits, however critics didn’t approve. This reboot comes from Chronicle director Josh Trank with a cast that includes Miles Teller, Kate Mara, and Michael B. Jordan and it will attempt to begin the franchise anew.
And that’s all for now! Numbers 10-6 coming at you tomorrow…
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