Following a South by Southwest premiere last month, The Greatest Hits is in theaters this weekend in limited fashion before a Hulu bow next weekend. The romantic dramedy stars Lucy Boynton, Justin H. Min, David Corenswet (soon to portray the title role in James Gunn’s Superman), and Austin Crute.
Many critic claim the film’s theme of utilizing music to play on our emotions ultimately doesn’t pay off. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is just 53% and it appears there’s not enough needle drops to place it into any sort of awards contention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Civil War breaks out in theaters on April 12th after a buzzy premiere at South by Southwest last month. The dystopian action flick from Alex Garland imagines a nation deeply divided in what should be timely programming in this election year. Kirsten Dunst, Wagner Moura, Cailee Spaeny, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Nick Offerman, and Jesse Plemons are among the ensemble.
This marks Garland’s fourth directorial feature after the acclaimed Ex Machina from 2015 and 2018’s Annihilation and 2022’s Men which generated considerably more mixed reviews. Notices for War are strong with a 92% RT rating. The A24 release looks to set an all-time best opening for the distributor by topping Hereditary‘s $13.6 million debut.
That record should be set, but by how much is the question for the $50 million budgeted project. Some estimates have this at $20 million or more. I’m being a tad more conservative in the high teens.
Universal Pictures looks for Monkey Man to make the lion’s share of box office dollars when it opens on April 5th. Dev Patel (a Supporting Actor nominee for 2016’s Lion) makes his directorial debut in the action thriller with John Wickish vibes. He also headlines and cowrote the pic that premiered at South by Southwest to general acclaim (the RT score is 92%). Sharlto Copley, Pitobash, Sobhita Dhulipala, Sikandar Kher, and Vipin Sharma costar. Jordan Peele serves as a producer.
The effective ads could lure genre enthusiasts searching for Wick style violence, even if Patel is far from a bankable commodity (though expect The Green Knight stans to be first in line). This could be an example of cinephiles being more thrilled to view it than general audiences. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if this overperforms and that could mean a high teens to low 20s start. Mid teens might be more likely.
Monkey Man opening weekend prediction: $16.6 million
The 2024 edition of South by Southwest recently concluded, but Problemista from Julio Torres premiered at the fest last year. Distributor A24 has at last put it into theaters this month. The quirky pic is written and directed by and stars Torres, a former SNL scribe who also co-created the HBO series Los Espookys. His directorial debut features Tilda Swinton, RZA, Greta Lee, Catalina Saavedra, James Scully, and Isabella Rossellini.
Reviews are mostly complimentary for the black comedy with an 89% RT score and particular kudos for the script and Swinton’s work. The reaction isn’t strong enough for this to have any Oscar viability. Maybe the Indie Spirit Awards will give Torres a nod in the First Screenplay competition. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Rom com The Idea of You closed out this year’s South by Southwest festival prior to its Amazon Prime streaming debut on May 2nd. Based on the novel by Robinne Lee, the adaptation casts Anne Hathaway (Supporting Actress winner for 2012’s Les Miserables) as a divorcee who finds herself in a relationship with a superstar boy band singer played by Nicholas Galiztine. Ella Rubin, Reid Scott, and Annie Mumolo costar. Michael Showalter, who made The Big Sick and directed Jessica Chastain to a Best Actress victory in The Eyes of Tammy Faye, is behind the camera.
The small sampling of early reviews indicate a crowdpleaser that shouldn’t get in the heads of the Academy. That said, the Golden Globes might be a different story. In the Musical/Comedy field, Hathaway could make a play for Actress attention. So could the picture depending on the level of competition that follows in the next nine and a half months (though Hathaway is a likelier possibility). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It sounds as if Neon has a potential sleeper on their hands with Babes at the box office and at awards shows. The comedy stars Ilana Glazer of Broad City as a happily single woman who unexpectedly gets pregnant in the directorial debut from Pamela Adlon. Costars include Michelle Buteau, John Carroll Lynch, Hasan Minjaj, Stephan James, and Oliver Platt.
A release date has yet to be finalized after its successful screening at South by Southwest. Reviews call this a raunchy and heartfelt winner and it sports a 100% RT rating.
Comedies in general face a tall task getting attention from the Academy and this should hold true with Babes. Original Screenplay (from Glazer and Josh Rainowitz) might be its only realistic shot. Other ceremonies could offer more possibilities. At the Golden Globes, the performances of Glazer and Buteau as Glazer’s BFF mom helping her navigate impending parenthood could be noticed in the Musical/Comedy derbies. Same goes for Best Musical/Comedy in general. At the Directors Guild competition, Adlon could make it in the First-Time Feature race. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Sydney Sweeney is in Scream Queen mode when Immaculate is delivered to theaters on March 22nd. The fright fest finds the Euphoria, Anyone but You, and Madame Web star as a devout nun uncovering demonic happenings in the Italian countryside. Michael Mohan directs with a supporting cast including Álvaro Morte, Benedetta Porcaroli, Dora Romano, Giorgio Colangeli, and Simona Tabasco.
The Neon distributed effort is generating uneven reviews (it premiered at South by Southwest earlier this week). The RT meter stands at 64%. I haven’t seen a screen count and the marketing campaign seems a bit on the underwhelming side.
Horror can exceed expectations and that might hold true with Immaculate. Yet I wonder if this can manage the $9M+ that The Pope’s Exorcist achieved for its start last year. It might be lucky to earn half of that.
Immaculate opening weekend prediction: $4.9 million
For my Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire prediction, click here:
Alex Garland’s directorial debut Ex Machina was a critically hailed sci-fi effort that earned its maker an Original Screenplay nomination and a Visual Effects win at the 2014 Oscar ceremony. His follow-ups Annihilation (despite solid reviews) and Men (which drew a considerably more mixed reaction) did not generate much awards chatter post release. Garland’s fourth feature Civil War has been unveiled at South by Southwest prior to its April 12th debut. The dystopian thriller stars Kirsten Dunst, Wagner Moura, Cailee Spaeny, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Nick Offerman, and Jesse Plemons. This reunites the husband/wife team of Dunst and Plemons after The Power of the Dog.
Several critics are highly impressed with Civil War, which is being called both a love letter to journalists and a tense political action pic. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 88%. I’m not convinced that this will become a BP or directing or original screenplay player, but it’s within the realm of possibility. Tech nods seem more doable, including Sound and perhaps Cinematography.
As for the cast, Dunst and Spaeny are receiving the most attention. Dunst is coming off her first nomination for Dog in 2021 while Spaeny would be vying for her first (she probably came close to getting in for last year’s Priscilla). I would say Civil War needs to get in the BP conversation for either to have a shot and that will remain unclear for some time. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
South by Southwest is happening now and giving us some potential awards players (keep an eye out for my imminent Civil War post for example). It was at last year’s SXSW that festival goers were first exposed to Late Night with the Devil. Australian brothers Colin and Cameron Cairnes direct the 1970s set found footage horror flick with David Dastmalchian as a talk show host showcasing some demonic guests. Laura Gordon, Ian Bliss, and Fayssal Bazzi costar.
Devil is finally slated for stateside distribution on March 22nd with a Shudder streaming bow on April 19th. Many reviews are raves and it sports a 100% RT score. Dastmalchian, a memorable character who you may recognize from Prisoners, The Suicide Squad, Dune, and Oppenheimer, is being praised for this rare lead role.
That said, this is not the kind of material that awards voters notice… at least at the big dance. Perhaps the Indie Spirit Awards will be more attuned to its scare tactics. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Ryan Gosling (fresh off his third Oscar nom for Barbie) and Emily Blunt (just up for her first with Oppenheimer) lead the cast of The Fall Guy, slated for May 3rd. We are a month and a half away from that release, but it had a splashy debut at South by Southwest and the buzz is substantial. David Leitch (the man behind John Wick, Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2, and Bullet Train) directs with a supporting cast including Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Winston Duke, Stephanie Hsu, and Hannah Waddingham.
Based on the 1980s action TV series starring Lee Majors, Gosling plays a stunt man once again after portraying the same profession in The Place Beyond the Pines and Drive. Critics are calling it a lovingly crafted and quite funny and romantic homage to the cinematic workers who put themselves in danger for our entertainment. It stands at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes.
While we wait for the Academy to develop a category honoring stunt performers (like SAG does), The Fall Guy‘s best and perhaps only hope at recognition is in tech races like Sound (feasible) and Visual Effects (maybe more of a reach). Assuming Universal campaigns for it in Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes, its luck could be better with potential nods in Film, Actor, and Actress. And, yes, its chances for inclusion in the SAG Stunt Ensemble race seems like a no brainer. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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