Oscar Predictions: Deep Cover

Deep Cover is available to stream on Amazon Prime Video today with Tom Kingsley directing and Jurassic World maker Colin Trevorrow among four credited with the script. The co-screenwriter’s dino lead Bryce Dallas Howard stars alongside Orlando Bloom, Nick Mohammed, Paddy Considine, Ian McShane, and Sean Bean.

This is not a remake of the 1992 Laurence Fishburne/Jeff Goldblum crime thriller that featured a banger of a title song from Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg. Instead this British high concept action comedy is receiving decent marks with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and a more down-to-earth 68 Metacritic. It won’t get near the Academy’s radar. I do wonder if it could get a push for BAFTA’s Best British Film. That might be a long shot, but not an impossibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Piece by Piece Box Office Prediction

Focus Features hopes that audiences will be happy to attend Piece by Piece when it assembles in theaters October 11th. This is quite the interesting mashup of genres. From documentarian Morgan Neville, it is a biopic of music producer Pharrell Williams of the Neptunes told through Lego animation. Besides the central character, his musician friends Gwen Stefani, Kendrick Lamar, Timbaland, Justin Timberlake, Busta Rhymes, Jay-Z, Daft Punk, and Snoop Dogg lend their voices to the project.

After its premiere at Telluride, Piece generated mostly complimentary reaction. The RT score is 91% with Metacritic at 64. I’m not sure the reviews are strong enough that this will compete for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars.

With no significant buzz awards wise or elsewhere, I wonder who turns up for this. This isn’t really geared towards kids (and they could still be preoccupied with The Wild Robot). Adults aren’t likely clamoring for a Lego themed doc about the producer of “Hollaback Girl” and “Drop It Like It’s Hot”.

If this managed higher single digits for starters, Focus should consider it a victory. Slated for 1800 screens, I don’t think it gets there.

Piece by Piece opening weekend prediction: $5.4 million

For my Saturday Night prediction, click here:

For my Terrifier 3 prediction, click here:

For my My Hero Academia: You’re Next prediction, click here:

For my The Apprentice prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Piece by Piece

Morgan Neville’s Piece by Piece looks to build awards momentum at the Telluride and Toronto festivals before its October 11th domestic bow. The unique documentary is a biopic of musician Pharrell Williams told via Lego animation. It includes interviews (Lego style) with artists its subject has collaborated with including Jay-Z, Justin Timberlake, Gwen Stefani, Snoop Dogg, Kendrick Lamar, and Busta Rhymes.

2013’s 20 Feet from Stardom from Neville (focused on background singers) took home the Oscar for Documentary Feature. Five years later, his Mister Rogers doc Won’t You Be My Neighbor? was widely expected to be nominated and ended up snubbed.

Piece by Piece is a head scratcher. Focus Features will surely campaign for it in Animated Feature and Documentary Feature. Early reviews are mostly complimentary though not gushing. I think it stands a stronger chance in Animated Feature. However, competition is real with titles such as Inside Out 2, The Wild Robot, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Flow, Moana 2, and Memoir of a Snail. The mishmash’s best chance at recognition could be one of its original songs where Pharrell has competed before with “Happy” from Despicable Me 2.

Oscar Predictions: The Garfield Movie

Our nation’s most famous lasagna adoring orange cat hits theaters this Memorial Day weekend with The Garfield Movie. A year after (somewhat controversially) providing the voice of Mario in The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Chris Pratt does the same for this title character. Other notable thespians lending their talents are Samuel L. Jackson, Hannah Waddingham, Ving Rhames, Nicholas Hoult, Cecily Strong, Harvey Giuillén, Brett Goldstein, Bowen Yang, Janelle James, and Snoop Dogg. Mark Dindal directs.

Even the fresher reviews for Garfield mostly call it nothing more than a pleasant diversion. The Rotten Tomatoes meter sits at a meager 55%. Mario didn’t manage any attention in the Animated Feature race and Pratt’s latest contribution to animation won’t either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Garfield Movie Box Office Prediction

Arriving 20 years after the live-action version Garfield: The Movie based on the comic strip from Jim Davis, The Garfield Movie hits multiplexes this Memorial Day weekend. Mark Dindal, who made Disney’s The Emperor’s New Groove and Chicken Little, directs. Chris Pratt, after providing the vocal stylings for Mario in The Super Mario Bros. Movie last year, mics up for the iconic tabby cat. Other voice work comes from Samuel L. Jackson, Hannah Waddingham, Ving Rhames, Nicholas Hoult, Cecily Strong, Harvey Guillén, Brett Goldstein, Bowen Yang, Janelle James, and Snoop Dogg.

The aforementioned Garfield: The Movie from two decades ago (which led to a classic comedy line from Bill Murray in Zombieland) took in $21 million for starters and $75 million overall domestically. The 2006 sequel Garfield: A Tale of Two Kitties was the equivalent of cinematic kitty litter with only $28 million total in its coffers.

This animated rendering seems poised for better results than what happened several years ago. The holiday frame should bring families out in droves and competition from the second weekend of IF may only be a minor threat.

For the Friday to Monday frame, I believe this could get a little north of $40 million.

The Garfield Movie opening weekend prediction: $41.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga prediction, click here:

For my Sight prediction, click here:

House Party Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (01/11): Considering its meager 1500 screen count and scant buzz, I’m revising my House Party prediction down from $6 million to $3 million.

Warner Bros hopes audiences RSVP to the House Party reboot when it debuts January 13th. Directed by Calmatic (best known for music videos and commercials), Jacob Latimore and Tosin Cole star as best friends who hatch a plan to hold a blowout bash at the estate of LeBron James. The NBA superstar plays himself as do musical celebs like Kid Cudi, Lil Wayne, and Snoop Dogg.

The 1990 original featured hip hop act Kid N’ Play (who appear here) and spawned two sequels. It was a surprise box office success that also drew critical kudos. This was originally slated for an HBO Max only premiere last summer before the studio shifted emphasis to theatrical output.

Rolling out over the long MLK weekend, Party could manage to over perform. There’s a real question which new release will make the most money with A Man Called Otto and Plane as the other contenders. The trio should all fall behind Avatar: The Way of Water and M3GAN. I’ll project this falls short of double digits earnings by a notable margin.

House Party opening weekend prediction: $3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my A Man Called Otto prediction, click here:

For my Plane prediction, click here:

The Addams Family 2 Box Office Prediction

One of America’s best known spooky families returns in animated form on October 1 with The Addams Family 2. The sequel to the 2019 hit brings back the vocal stylings of Oscar Isaac, Charlize Theron, Chloe Grace Moretz, Nick Kroll, Snoop Dogg, Bette Midler, Bill Hader, and Wallace Shawn. Javon Walton replaces Finn Wolfhard as Pugsley. Conrad Vernon and Greg Tiernan direct once again.

Two Octobers ago, the original started with a better than expected $30 million and wound up at $100 million. It came in second behind Joker. The follow-up will undoubtedly also be in runner-up status to another comic book character with Venom: Let There Be Carnage (which opens against it). In  fact, with Venom being PG-13, it could siphon away some younger viewers.

The other challenge is that Universal made the curious decision to make part 2 available for home rental on the same day. This was a bit of a surprise considering family entertainment has fared relatively well given the COVID circumstances.

Due to those factors, my snap judgment is that The Addams Family 2 may earn just over half of what the first nabbed out of the gate.

The Addams Family 2 opening weekend prediction: $16.6 million

For my Venom: Let There Be Carnage prediction, click here:

Venom: Let There Be Carnage Box Office Prediction

For my The Many Saints of Newark prediction, click here:

The Many Saints of Newark Box Office Prediction

Dolemite Is My Name Movie Review

There are plentiful amounts of F bombs thrown out in Dolemite Is My Name. They are the kind that you associated with Eddie Murphy years ago. The F no longer stands for the family fare he starred in that bombed at the box office. Think Pluto Nash. Or Meet Dave. Or Imagine That. No, this belongs in a small sub genre of pictures where some of the players here have had involvement before. Dolemite tells the true story of a man breaking into the movie business with wide eyed spirit and contagious tenacity. The quality of the material produced is secondary.

Murphy is Rudy Ray Moore, who’s working at a record shop in L.A. when we begin. He has dreams of stardom, but the general consensus is that his time has passed. Rudy just won’t let that happen as he develops a comic persona that is one part rhyming (he ended up being a huge influence in the hip hop community), one part glorious 70s outfits of the era, and all parts raunchy as hell.

He achieves success in the underground comedy world where his records sell, but a screening of the Billy Wilder pic The Front Page gives him another idea. Rudy doesn’t see humorous material on the screen for the black audience and he’s going to be the one to give it to them. Obtaining financing (even at the height of the blaxploitation genre) is next to impossible so he’s creative in his methods.

Surrounding Rudy is a colorful (especially the clothes) and eclectic group of collaborators who aren’t entirely sure what they’ve gotten themselves into. They include actor D’Urville Martin (Wesley Snipes, having a ball). He never fails to remind others that he had a big part in Rosemary’s Baby and only joins the picture when he’s allowed to direct. Keegan-Michael Key is the screenwriter who thinks he’s making the kind of serious drama he writes for the stage. When kung fu and set shattering sex scenes take precedence, that notion is dispelled. Da’Vine Joy Randolph is a scene stealer as Lady Reed, Rudy’s stand-up partner plucked out of a Southern bar.

Screenwriters Larry Karaszewski and Scott Alexander have travelled this road before with Tim Burton’s Ed Wood. Murphy gave one of his finest performances 20 years ago in Bowfinger, where his costar Steve Martin was a director with unbridled and naive enthusiasm. The Disaster Artist with James Franco mined similar territory. So while Dolemite does feel familiar in its beats, it has its own brand of passion for its unlikely star.

We have the headliner to thank for it. This is Live From Netflix and is indeed Eddie Murphy’s show. The performer seems more inspired than he has in some time. It might help if you’re a Dolemite devotee (Murphy and many of the cast members are). Yet this is an entertaining watch either way as we watch a legend in his element.

***1/2 (out of four)

The Addams Family Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (10/10): My estimate has risen from $21.7 million to $26.9 million

Snapping into theaters over a half century after the TV series and over a quarter century after the two film versions of that show, an animated version of The Addams Family debuts next weekend. Originally based on the Charles Addams comics, this iteration of the macabre clan sounds like something Tim Burton should have his fingerprints all over. And indeed, he was once attached to direct it. However, it’s Conrad Vernon and Greg Tiernan (who last made the R rated Seth Rogen/Evan Goldberg toon Sausage Party) shepherding the project. Voices of the family include Oscar Isaac, Charlize Theron, Chloe Grace Moretz, Finn Wolfhard, Nick Kroll, Snoop Dogg, Martin Short, Catherine O’Hara and Bette Midler, in addition to Allison Janney and Elsie Fisher.

Attempting to reach a kiddie audience pre Halloween (and a week before Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is out), it could be a somewhat tough sell for youngsters unfamiliar with the source material. That applies to the small screen 1960s version and the 1990s big screen one. In fact, this may not hit the $24 million achieved by 1991’s first live action Addams out of the gate (1993 sequel Addams Family Values didn’t fare as well).

I do envision this managing a debut of over $20 million, but perhaps not by much. That would likely put it in third place behind Joker and Gemini Man.

The Addams Family opening weekend prediction: $26.9 million

For my Gemini Man prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/01/gemini-man-box-office-prediction/

For my Jexi prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/02/jexi-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: Dolemite Is My Name

Ahead of its October 25 Netflix release, Dolemite Is My Name introduced itself to critics this weekend at the Toronto Film Festival. Seen as a comeback role for Eddie Murphy, early reviews suggest it’s just that. Murphy plays Rudy Ray Moore, who was instrumental to ushering in the blaxploitation genre of the 1970s with his title character. Craig Brewer, best known for helming Hustle & Flow, directs with a supporting cast including Wesley Snipes, Keegan-Michael Key, Mike Epps, Craig Robinson, Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Snoop Dogg, and T.I.

In 2006, Eddie was seen as the front runner in Supporting Actor for Dreamgirls. He was upset by Alan Arkin’s work in Little Miss Sunshine. This has been eyed as his first chance at Academy attention since. The issue could be significant competition in a Best Actor derby that appears stacked already.

Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski wrote the original screenplay and they’ve specialized in highlighting colorful entertainment figures in Ed Wood, The People vs. Larry Flynt, and Man on the Moon. Once again, they could face trouble nabbing nods as that writing race is jam packed.

So while Dolemite should succeed in garnering the kind of praise its star hasn’t seen for some time, awards chatter might be elusive. There could be one noteworthy exception. Ruth Carter’s costume design has been noted in numerous write ups. Just last year, she became the first African-American to win that category for Black Panther. She could find herself in the mix again. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…