Universal Pictures is banking on horror fans receiving Black Phone 2 with open arms on October 17th. Following up on the surprise 2022 hit based on a novel by Joe Hill (son of Stephen King), Scott Derrickson is back directing. Ethan Hawke reprises his role as serial killer The Grabber alongside Mason Thameas, Madeleine McGraw, Demián Bechir, Miguel Mora, Jeremy Davies and Arianna Rivas.
Scary movies have been hot properties in 2025 and there should be enough goodwill left over from the original for this to solidly perform. Reviews are mostly positive with 81% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 71 Metacritic (pretty much right where part 1 landed).
I wouldn’t be surprised if this premiere plays out similar to Smile 2. That sequel opened on the same weekend last year with $23 million and that just edged the $22.6 million earned by its predecessor. The first Phone dialed up $23.6 million for starters and I’ll gave 2 slightly more.
Black Phone 2 opening weekend prediction: $25.5 million
Robert Zemeckis reunites with his Forrest Gump leads Tom Hanks and Robin Wright some 30 years after that Best Picture recipient with the family drama Here this weekend. My detailed prediction post on the newcomer can be accessed here:
Here is likely to be the sole newbie to place in the top five. Unlike Gump, there’s no awards buzz for this. A debut in the mid single digits could mean anywhere from second to fifth.
Tom Hardy’s third and reportedly final go-round in The Last Dance had a subpar start (more on that below). With a troubling B- Cinemascore, a 60 percent plus percentage drop appears inevitable. That should mean mid or high teens for an unremarkable repeat performance in 1st place.
Holdovers Smile 2, The Wild Robot, and Conclave should fill out the rest of the high five and here’s how I have it playing out:
1. Venom: The Last Dance
Predicted Gross: $17.3 million
2. Smile 2
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
3. The Wild Robot
Predicted Gross: $5 million
4. Here
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
5. Conclave
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (October 25-27)
As mentioned, viewers were not grooving to Venom: The Last Dance. The comic book based sequel set in Sony’s Spider-Man Universe took in $51 million. That’s under my $62.3 million take and well below 2018’s Venom ($80 million) and 2021 follow-up Let There Be Carnage at $90 million. Crowds have clearly soured on the franchise.
The news wasn’t great for Smile 2 either. The horror sequel was second with $9.5 million and that represents a 59% plummet. Its 2022 predecessor only experienced an 18% decline in weekend #2. While I didn’t think that would occur, I had this pegged at $15.6 million during its follow-up frame.
The Wild Robot was third with $6.8 million compared to my $7.5 million call. The animated hit has taken in $111 million in five weeks.
Oscar hopeful Conclave with Ralph Fiennes was fourth with a better than anticipated $6.6 million. Edward Berger’s papal succession drama blew past my $4.8 million projection.
The Andrew Garfield/Florence Pugh romance We Live in Time added nearly 2000 screens and was fifth with $4.8 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five as its total reached $11 million.
Finally, Terrifier 3 was sixth with $4.7 million (I said $5.4 million) for a robust $44 million in three weeks.
Tom Hardy is back in the threequel Venom: The Last Dance while awards hopeful Conclave also debuts Friday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the weekend’s newcomers here:
Hardy’s latest go-round as the comic book symbiote will easily dominate the charts. Yet I’m not bullish that The Last Dance will top the openings of predecessors Venom from 2018 ($80 million) and 2021’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage ($90 million). I have it in the low to mid 60s.
Conclave is expected to nab a Best Picture nomination. Edward Berger’s follow-up to All Quiet on the Western Front may have to settle for a mid single digits start that should put it in fourth or fifth place.
As for holdovers, Smile 2 may benefit from its genre in weekend #2 as horror fans seek content. The first Smile rode a wave of loud buzz to a startling 18% decline in its second frame. I’d be surprised if the sequel sees that, but mid to high 30s seems feasible. The Wild Robot and Terrifier 3 should fill out the remainder of the high five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Venom: The Last Dance
Predicted Gross: $62.3 million
2. Smile 2
Predicted Gross: $15.6 million
3. The Wild Robot
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
4. Terrifier 3
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
5. Conclave
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
Box Office Results (October 18-20)
Smile 2 was barely able to open wider than part 1 at $23 million. The original hit $22.6 million two years later. I had this making slightly more at $27 million. That’s a fair result though (as mentioned above) I wouldn’t expect this to have quite the sturdy legs of what came before.
The Wild Robot held in second with $10 million, on par with my $10.7 million forecast. The animated adventure is now north of nine digits after four weeks with $101 million.
Terrifier 3 slid from first to third with $9.3 million, in line with my $9.8 million call. The $38 million total in ten days is quite a feat considering the reported teensy $2 million price tag.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice was fourth with $5 million (I went with $5.8 million) for a seven-week haul of $283 million and $300 million potentially in its domestic sights.
Finally, the Andrew Garfield/Florence Pugh rom dram We Live in Time expanded to just under 1000 venues and posted $4.1 million. I was close with $4.3 million. That brought the overall tally to $4.5 million.
Smile 2 looks to make horror fans happy this weekend while the Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh romantic drama We Live in Time debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
Likely building upon the goodwill from its predecessor two years ago, Smile 2 should outpace the $22 million that Smile opened wide with. My mid to high 20s estimate puts it easily out front.
Time is hitting just 1000 venues and I’m projecting mid single digits before it expands even wider on October 25th.
Terrifier 3 got off to a terrific start (more on that below). Projecting its sophomore fall is tricky. I would think the unrated horror threequel might be front loaded, but I’m not sure it drops over 60%. It’s actually theaters so it may only decline around 50% and that’s good for a horror flick of this nature. That should put it in third as I foresee The Wild Robot only easing in the mid 20s and staying in second. A similar meager decrease for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice should keep it in the top 5 in its seventh frame. Joker: Folie à Deux may manage fifth place though it should see another calamitous percentage fall. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if Transformers One manages to rise the five spot.
Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. Smile 2
Predicted Gross: $27 million
2. The Wild Robot
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million
3. Terrifier 3
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
5. We Live in Time
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
Box Office Results (October 11-13)
Please note that Joker: Folie à Deux is not listed in my top 5 for its third go-round due to a historically awful sophomore weekend plummet. We’ll get to that in a second, but let’s focus on the other big story for now. Terrifier 3 wowed prognosticators with $18.8 million, ahead of my $14.4 million call. With a reported budget of $5 million, the grisly Art the Clown Christmas bloodbath solidified its franchise bonafides. You can expect a fourth cut in the near future.
The Wild Robot held in second with $14 million and surpassed my $11.7 million prediction. In its three weeks in multiplexes, the DreamWorks Animation adventure has amassed $84 million as it flies to nine digit territory.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice was third with $7.3 million (I said $6.7 million) for a six-week tally of $275 million as it looks to scare up $300M+ domestically.
Joker: Folie à Deux, after a disastrous enough premiere, was down an embarrassing 81% in fourth with $7 million. I was more generous in thinking it would only go down 75% with $9.5 million. The lambasted sequel has taken in $51 million in ten days and will struggle to reach $75 million stateside. As a reminder, its 2019 predecessor made $335 million in the U.S. and Canada and over one billion worldwide.
A slew of newcomers that didn’t star Art the Clown failed to fill seats. Lego themed Pharrell documentary Piece by Piece was fifth with $3.8 million compared to my $5.4 million projection.
Holdover Transformers One was sixth with $3.7 million for a muted $52 million in four weeks. I did not do an estimate for the animated Hasbro title.
Saturday Night, Jason Reitman’s recounting of the lead-up to SNL’s first episode in 1975, was seventh with a discouraging $3.4 million. I had it pegged in fourth with $7.8 million. SHAMELESS PLUG ALERT: check out the homepage on my blog to see my Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time posts. At press time, I’ve written entries for numbers 50-43 and they are being uploaded on a daily(ish) basis.
Manga sequel My Hero Academia: You’re Next was eighth with a meh $3 million, just over half of my $5.9 million prediction.
Finally, The Apprentice stumbled in 10th with $1.6 million (I went with $2.4 million). The story of Donald Trump rising to prominence in the 1980s did not attract curious onlookers.
Paramount is looking for happy results when their horror sequel Smile 2 opens wide on October 18th. Parker Finn is back in the director’s seat two years after helming the original. Naomi Scott, Rosemarie DeWitt, Kyle Gallner, Lukas Gage, Miles Gutierrez-Riley, Peter Jacobson, Raul Castillo, Dylan Gelula, and Ray Nicholson are among the cast.
Back in 2022, Smile turned into an unexpected blockbuster. With a reported price tag of only $17 million, it earned $105 million domestically and another $110M+ elsewhere. A sequel was rapidly commissioned.
With an advantageous October release date and goodwill left over from part 1, Smile 2 could outdo the $22.6 million that its predecessor began with. Whether it eventually reaches the nine digit stateside take of Smile may depend on its quality.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swings into multiplexes for a highly likely first place debut while The Boogeyman lurks for a start in third position. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Spidey is the follow-up to 2018’s Oscar-winning animated adventure Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. In addition to plenty of awards, it had an A+ Cinemascore grade and nearly $200 million in domestic sales. Anticipation should be elevated for the sequel (with part 3 coming next year). That’s why some estimates have this as lofty as $100 million. I’m a tad more conservative, but I’ll say it clears $90 million.
The Boogeyman should take advantage of its PG-13 rating, the connection to Stephen King for the source material, and that there’s been a slight lull between horror flicks. Heck – it probably helps that it’s called The Boogeyman. I could see this opening similarly to The Black Phone and Smile. That would mean high teens or low 20s for a solid third place showing.
Memorial Day weekend champ The Little Mermaid should drop to second after a mixed bag of a debut (more on that below). A mid 50s dip (similar to the live-action Aladdin four years ago) would mean a number slightly north of $40 million.
The 4-5 slots should belong to sequel holdovers Fast X and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. It could be a close race between the two as they each may earn a tad over $10 million.
Here’s how I see it looking:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Gross: $96.4 million
2. The Little Mermaid
Predicted Gross: $40.5 million
3. The Boogeyman
Predicted Gross: $17.7 million
4. Fast X
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million
Box Office Results (May 26-29)
As expected, Disney’s The Little Mermaid (updating the 1989 classic) swam to the top of the charts. It did so on the lower end of its expected range. Over the four-day holiday, the total was $118.8 million. That’s below my take of $132.1 million. While nowhere near the starts of Beauty and the Beast or The Lion King from 2017 and 2019, it is on pace with what Aladdin accomplished over Memorial Day four years back.
Fast X slipped to second with $28.5 million and that managed to exceed my $25.4 million estimate. Vin Diesel and company have seen the beginning to the end of their two-decade long franchise earn $113 million thus far.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was third with $26.8 million, on target with my $26 million call. The MCU threequel stands at $306 million.
The Super Mario Bros. Movie took fourth place with $8.2 million (I said $7.6 million) to bring its massive haul to $560 million.
Spots 5-7, as anticipated, went to three newcomers. I didn’t correctly call their placements. The Machine with popular standup and podcaster Bert Kreischer was fifth with $5.8 million, ahead of my $3.7 million forecast. While not spectacular, it’s on the better end of its predicted range.
About My Father, featuring another popular standup Sebastian Maniscalco alongside Robert De Niro, was on the lesser end of the range. The family comedy was sixth with $5.3 million. I said a touch more at $6.2 million.
Finally, Gerard Butler’s action pic Kandahar bombed in seventh with only $2.8 million. I was more generous at $4.2 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast where I discuss all things box office by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation wherever you like to stream. Until next time…
The first full weekend of the new year sees deranged doll M3GAN dancing into multiplexes as she hopes to have a strong #2 showing behind Avatar: The Way of Water. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on 2023’s initial wide release right here:
I believe M3GAN will perform similarly to last fall’s Smile and a low to mid 20s premiere would cause Universal and Blumhouse to do just that. The trailers have generated lots of attention and the overall marketing campaign (like Smile) has been impressive. There’s a chance it could over perform my estimate, but I don’t see it threatening Avatar.
That’s because the James Cameron sequel achieved the third largest third domestic weekend of all time behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens and the first Avatar. A fourth frame drop in the mid to higher 40s range should net it a mid 30s showing. Like M3GAN, I wouldn’t be shocked it goes higher.
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish should easily be third after an encouraging sophomore outing with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I think it’ll look:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
Predicted Gross: $38.3 million
2. M3GAN
Predicted Gross: $24.8 million
3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
5. Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Predicted Gross: $2.1 million
Box Office Results (December 30-January 1)
2022 closed out and 2023 kicked off with Avatar: The Way of Water dominating the charts with $67.4 million. That’s right in line with my $65.8 million forecast. This third weekend was an important one for the long-in-development follow-up as it’s amassed $425 million stateside coupled with its gigantic worldwide earnings ($1.4 billion).
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish rose 35% from its debut at $16.8 million – in range with my $16.1 million prediction. The DreamWorks animated sequel hit $61 million as nine figures looks doable.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ascended to third with $5.1 million, a touch above my $4.5 million take. Overall haul is $438 million.
Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody felt the heat of a disappointing second frame in fourth. Dropping 16% with $3.9 million, I wrongly thought it might go up at $5.6 million. The meager ten-day tally is $14 million.
Babylon, after a disastrous start, continued the free fall with $2.6 million in fifth (I said $3.2 million). It’s made $10 million with a reported $80 million price tag.
Violent Night was sixth with $2.1 million. I was more optimistic at $3.1 million. The R rated holiday tale has scored a solid $40 million.
It’s nice to have a trailer that’s inspired countless memes – mainly from its demented title character doll busting creepy dance moves. M3GAN is the first wide release of 2023 and it appears poised to start the year off on a profitable note. The sci-fi horror pic comes from director Gerard Johnstone with a screenplay by Malignant scribe Akela Cooper. Jason Blum and James Wan serve as producers as the Blumhouse label looks to have another buzzy hit. Allison Williams headlines the cast and she’s no stranger to moneymaking fright fests that open early in the calendar year (2017’s Get Out). The supporting players include Violet McGraw, Ronny Chieng, and Brian Jordan Alvarez.
With a marketing campaign showcasing the alarming and humorous robotic pal, M3GAN may open on pace with other hit genre pics of recent times. I could see it debuting somewhere in between the $30 million from last January’s Scream reboot and the near $23 million that Smile took in during the fall. That’ll be enough to produce smiles and screams of joy for Universal.
Blogger’s Update (11/17): The Fathom Events theatrical output of The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2 wasn’t on my radar last week when I made projections. I believe it should open in third place (with #2 certainly possible). My estimates have been updated below to reflect the change.
Culinary satire The Menu and true life journalistic expose She Said are the newbies premiering Friday. Each will vie for runner-up status as Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will undoubtedly remain in first place in its sophomore outing. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the fresh product here:
I’m giving the edge to The Menu for #2. I don’t think anything other than Panther will manage double digits and my higher single digits estimate for Menu outweighs the low to mid ones for She Said.
Their placement at 2 and 5 is reliant on neither drastically underperforming and Black Adam having a low to mid 40s dip for fourth. Ticket to Paradise should be fourth depending on the She Said gross.
Back to Panther. The MCU sequel fell $6 million short of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness for biggest domestic premiere of 2022. Strange fell 67% in its second weekend while the year’s other MCU title Thor: Love and Thunder dropped 68%. With its A Cinemascore grade, Wakanda may not fall quite that precipitously.
Here’s how I see the top 5 playing out:
1 . Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Predicted Gross: $70.3 million
2. The Menu
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
3. The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
4. Black Adam
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
5. Ticket to Paradise
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
6. She Said
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
Box Office Results (November 11-13)
I went a little high in projecting that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever would achieve the largest debut of the year. It made $181.3 million compared to my call of $195.2 million. As mentioned, that didn’t reach the $187 million that Multiverse did (though it easily outpaced Thor‘s $144 million). Wakanda also fell under the $202 million that its 2018 predecessor made out of the gate.
Black Adam fell to second after two weeks on top with $8 million (in line with my $8.7 million estimate). This comic book adaptation is up to $150 million after three weeks.
Ticket to Paradise was third at $5.9 million, on target with my $5.8 million prediction. The rom com hit $56 million after its third frame.
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile was fourth with $3.2 million (a bit ahead of my $2.5 million estimate) for $40 million total.
Smile rounded out the top five with $2.3 million (I said $2.4 million) as it passed the century mark with $102 million.
Blogger’s Note (11/09): I am revising my Black Panther: Wakanda Forever estimate down from $205.2M to $195.2M.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever looks to achieve the largest opening of 2022 when it is unveiled Friday. The sequel to 2018’s $700 million domestic grosser is understandably the only new release this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
My estimate puts Wakanda at the higher end of its expected range and has it surpassing its predecessor for the 8th largest debut of all time. It needs to get beyond $191 million to topple the year’s best opening currently held by Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. I believe it can with room to spare.
After a three-week reign atop the charts and a better than anticipated 3rd frame hold (more on that below), Black Adam will drop to second. One Piece Film: Red should have the heftiest percentage fall of all holdovers (typical for its genre). That should allow Ticket to Paradise to remain in third. We could even see Smile or Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile in the four or five spot ahead of Red (it could be awfully close for those 4-6 positions).
Here’s how I see it all playing out:
1 . Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Predicted Gross: $195.2 million
2. Black Adam
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
3. Ticket to Paradise
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
4. Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile
Predicted Gross: $2.5 million
5. Smile
Predicted Gross: $2.4 million
6. One Piece Film: Red
Predicted Gross: $2.2 million
Box Office Predictions (November 4-6)
Dwayne Johnson rocked another #1 weekend as Black Adam took in $18.2 million (besting my $14.4 million take). That’s a solid dip of 33% as its stateside tally stands at $137 million. The reported $200 million budget is preventing this from being considered a runaway success, but the total is decent in this marketplace.
One Piece Film: Red, the animated fantasy from Japan, premiered in line with its range at $9.3 million for runner-up status. I went slightly higher at $10.2 million. As mentioned above, a sophomore plummet of over 70% is likely.
Ticket to Paradise continued to prevent the death of the rom com in third with $8.5 million, holding up sturdier than my $6.8 million forecast. The three-week gross is $46 million.
Smile was fourth with $3.9 million (I said $3.4 million) as the sleeper horror hit is up to $99 million (with over $200 million already domestically). The Paramount release should join the century club tonight.
Prey for the Devil was right behind in firth as that scary movie earned $3.8 million in weekend #2. I said a little less with $3.1 million. It’s made $13 million.
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile managed to jump up 23% for sixth place with $3.3 million. The kiddie pic is at $36 million.
Finally, Oscar hopeful The Banshees of Inisherin was seventh with $2 million. The Irish set black comedy with Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson came in a tad below my $2.2 million projection.
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