Thanksgiving 2015 Box Office Predictions

The Turkey Day weekend box office is upon us and we have three new holiday offerings joining the fray: Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur, critically lauded Rocky spinoff Creed, and gothic horror tale Victor Frankenstein. You can read my individual prediction posts on each here:

Since the final Hunger Games pic opened to less than expected results (more on that below), I believe Dinosaur should roam to the top of the charts, though it could be somewhat close.

Solid buzz should put Creed solidly in third place, while I expect Frankenstein to struggle a bit in its opening. Holdovers like Spectre, The Peanuts Movie, and The Night Before should experience small declines as is typical over this holiday weekend.

And with that, I’ll do a top seven predictions that includes projections for both the traditional three day weekend and expanded Thanksgiving five day frame:

The Good Dinosaur

Predicted Gross: $56.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $78.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2

Predicted Gross: $48.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $75.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Creed

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $27.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

4. Spectre

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $17.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

5. The Peanuts Movie

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $15.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

6. Victor Frankenstein

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $14.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

7. The Night Before

Predicted Gross: $8 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (November 20-22)

Katniss and company easily ruled the box office as Mockingjay – Part 2 debuted, but it undeniably came in with less than anticipated numbers. The fourth and final chapter of The Hunger Games franchise made $102.6 million compared to my $124.2M forecast. This is easily the lowest opener of the series and over $50M below the heights of what Catching Fire did two years ago. A nine-digit premiere is always pretty solid, but Lionsgate was likely hoping for a better result than this.

007 was second with Spectre taking in $15 million, on target with my $15.3M forecast. In three weeks, its total stands at $154M.

Snoopy and the gang were third with The Peanuts Movie making $13.2 million, in line with my $14.1M projection. Its three week tally is $99M.

Raunchy Christmas comedy The Night Before had a lackluster beginning with just $9.8 million, well below my $16.6M projection. Its best hope is for smallish declines as the holiday it focuses on draws closer.

The weekend’s other newcomer, thriller Secret in Their Eyes with Julia Roberts, settled for fifth with a muted $6.6 million. It did manage to top my $5.1M prediction.

In sixth, another Christmas comedy Love the Coopers made just $3.9 million in its sophomore frame, below my $5.4M guesstimate.

Finally, Oscar hopeful Spotlight expanded its screen count and took in $3.5 million for 8th place. It couldn’t match my $4.7M projection, but did have the second highest per screen average of any film in the top ten after Mockingjay.

And there you have it, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: November 20-22

The fourth and final installment of the wildly successful Hunger Games franchise debuts this weekend with Mockingjay – Part 2. Additionally, we have openers with the raunchy Christmas comedy The Night Before featuring Seth Rogen and Joseph Gordon-Levitt and thriller Secret in Their Eyes with Chiwetel Ejiofor, Nicole Kidman, and Julia Roberts. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/12/the-hunger-games-mockingjay-part-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/14/the-night-before-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/14/secret-in-their-eyes-box-office-prediction/

Jennifer Lawrence and company should very easily top the charts and I’ve predicted the second Mockingjay edition will just manage to top what part 1 opened at.

The real battle could be for #2 as holdover champs Spectre and The Peanuts Movie could compete for the runner-up spot with The Night Before. As for Secret in Their Eyes, this seems to be flying under the radar and I have it a close competition for the five spot with the sophomore weekend of Love the Coopers.

And with that, a top six predictions for the weekend:

Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2

Predicted Gross: $124.2 million

2. The Night Before

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

3. Spectre

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. The Peanuts Movie

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)

5. Love the Coopers

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 35%)

6. Secret in Their Eyes

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

Box Office Results (November 13-15)

As anticipated, Spectre and The Peanuts Movie continued to dominate the box office, though the 24th 007 adventure held up a bit better and the Charlie Brown family pic dipped a little further than my projections. Meanwhile, all three new entries didn’t meet my estimates.

Spectre held the top spot for the second weekend in a row with $33.6 million, above my $30.4M prediction for a two week total of $128M while The Peanuts Movie earned $24 million for second place, under my $28.9M projection. Peanuts has made $82M so far.

Third place belonged to newcomer Christmas ensemble comedy Love the Coopers with a middling $8.3 million, under my $11.3M forecast. Ridley Scott’s The Martian was fourth in its seventh weekend with $6.7 million. My estimate? $6.7M! Gold star! That Matt Damon mega-hit stands at $207M domestically. The Chilean mining drama The 33 stumbled with just $5.7 million for fifth place, well under my generous $10M projection.

Finally, the football drama My All-American was DOA for an 11th place showing with only $1.3 million compared to my $3.8M estimate.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Secret in Their Eyes Box Office Prediction

Even with its high profile cast of Oscar nominees and winners, this Friday’s Secret in Their Eyes may well be another fall 2015 adult themed title that fails to bring in an audience of any major significance. The film, from Breach director and Hunger Games and Captain Phillips screenwriter Billy Ray, is an FBI thriller based on an Oscar-winning 2009 Argentine effort and this remake stars Chiwetel Ejiofor, Nicole Kidman, and Julia Roberts.

Secret seems to be flying pretty far under the radar and it’s picked up zero Oscar buzz, which could have helped. As mentioned, we’ve seen adult themed titles with big stars like Our Brand is Crisis, Burnt, and Steve Jobs all stumble recently and I have a feeling this is headed down a similar path.

Secret in Their Eyes opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million

For my The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/12/the-hunger-games-mockingjay-part-2-box-office-prediction/

For my The Night Before prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/14/the-night-before-box-office-prediction/

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