The Cannes Film Festival is underway and the opening feature is from an auteur named Quentin! Not that one. The Second Act is a French comedy about the first AI directed movie and it’s the latest from filmmaker Quentin Dupieux. Also… don’t get this confused with Second Act, Jennifer Lopez’s rom com from 2018 (because why would that open Cannes??). Léa Seydoux, Vincent Lindon, Louis Garrel, and Raphaël Quenard star.
Clocking in at a mere 82 minutes, initial reactions call this a very meta experience. Reviews themselves are mixed. The Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 60% based on a handful of critics.
I find it highly unlikely that the French will select this as their contender for International Feature Film months down the line. Any awards prospects seem shaky at best. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It’s been 20 years since the heyday of Jennifer Lopez rom coms like The Wedding Planner and Maid in Manhattan, but the actress returns to the genre (with a heavy dose of music) on February 11th in Marry Me. Directed by Kat Coiro, Lopez stars as a spurned pop star who strikes up a romance with Owen Wilson. The supporting cast includes Maluma, John Bradley, and Sarah Silverman.
Originally scheduled for Valentine’s Day weekend 2021 before the inevitable COVID delay, it will be available on Peacock streaming same day. Clearly hoping for a healthy female turnout, plenty of viewers could opt to RSVP from home rather than walk down the theater aisle.
J-Lo’s last foray into this territory was 2018’s Second Act, which debuted over a packed Christmas weekend to only $6.5 million (it legged out decently to nearly $40 million). I’ll project Marry Me manages to top that figure, but it still could struggle to reach double digits. I’ll say it just manages to.
Marry Me opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million
This year, Jennifer Lopez kept up her judging duties on the reality show World of Dance, hosted Saturday Night Live, and embarked on a nationwide tour performing her many hit songs. She also turned 50 and got engaged to baseball legend Alex Rodriguez. However, 2019 will likely be known as the year J-Lo made a commercially and critically successful return to the big screen.
Her role as seasoned stripper turned business savvy crime lord Ramona in Lorene Scafaria’s Hustlers has already earned her precursor awards love. And the film, which grossed over $100 million domestically against a meager $20 million budget, should earn her a first trip to Academy Awards as a nominee for Supporting Actress. She’s even got a real shot to win.
It’s been over two decades since Lopez’s most acclaimed roles in Selena and Out of Sight. Over the past few years, her cinematic work has consisted of forgettable thrillers like The Boy Next Door and middling rom coms such as Second Act. That dynamic changed with her fierce Hustlers work and earns her a welcome spot among the block of memorable performers this year.
Happy New Year and welcome to the first box office predictions for 2019. It should be a weekend led by holiday holdovers with the only newcomer being horror pic EscapeRoom. You can find my detailed prediction post on it here:
My low teens projection puts the newbie in the #3 slot, behind returning champions Aquaman and MaryPoppinsReturns, with Bumblebee and Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse filling out the rest of the top five.
Let’s see how I have the high-five playing out:
1. Aquaman
Predicted Gross: $27.9 million
2. MaryPoppinsReturns
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
3. EscapeRoom
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
4. Bumblebee
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million
5. Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million
BoxOfficeResults (December28–30)
2018 was a record year at multiplexes and it closed out with Aquaman repeating in first place with $52.1 million, in range with my $53.8 million forecast. The DC superhero tale has amassed $189 million total.
MaryPoppinsReturns was in the runner-up position yet again with $28.3 million compared to my $26.5 million estimate. The Disney sequel stands at $99 million.
Bumblebee was third with $20.9 million (I said $21.4 million) for $67 million overall.
Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse was fourth with $18.8 million, a touch higher than my $17.3 million take. The acclaimed animated feature crossed the century mark at $104 million.
TheMule rounded out the top five with $12.1 million, in line with my $11.5 million prediction. The Clint Eastwood thriller has made $61 million.
Vice was sixth and made the most of the two Christmas openers with $7.7 million over the traditional frame and $17.6 million since its Tuesday debut. The Dick Cheney biopic managed to top my respective estimates of $7.2 million and $14.8 million.
The critically lambasted Holmes&Watson had an underwhelming start in seventh with $7.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $19.8 million since Christmas Day. It came in under my projections of $11.3 million and $23 million.
SecondAct was eighth in its sophomore frame at $7.3 million (I said $7.9 million) for a tally of $21 million.
RalphBreakstheInternet was ninth at $6.7 million, ahead of my $5.2 million prediction. It’s up to $175 million.
TheGrinch had a hefty drop-off in 10th at $4.1 million, well under my $7.3 million forecast. The total gross is $265 million.
It’s Christmas Week at the box office as the merrily confusing week officially gets underway tomorrow! We have two newbies debuting on Christmas Day with the Will Ferrell/John C. Reilly comedy Holmes&Watson and Adam McKay biopic Vice starring Christian Bale as Dick Cheney. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:
As I see it, both risk not making the top five as I deduce Watson will premiere with low double digits over the traditional three-day portion of the frame with Vice under that. Returning holiday offerings often see increases in their grosses from the previous weekend. I expect that to benefit titles such as MaryPoppinsReturns, Bumblebee, Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse, and TheMule as well as SecondAct and TheGrinch further down the chart.
Poppins came in below expectations this past weekend. If you’d asked me a week ago, I would’ve strongly suspected the Disney sequel would rise to top spot this weekend and knock current champ Aquaman down to second. Now, even though I expect the waterlogged superhero to have a decline in its sophomore frame, I feel it should manage to maintain the #1 position pretty easily.
As I close the box office predicting year out, let’s expand the list to my top 10 projections as I wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
1. Aquaman
Predicted Gross: $53.8 million
2. MaryPoppinsReturns
Predicted Gross: $26.5 million
3. Bumblebee
Predicted Gross: $21.4 million
4. Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse
Predicted Gross: $17.3 million
5. TheMule
Predicted Gross: $11.5 million
6. Holmes & Watson
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $23 million (Tuesday to Sunday)
7. SecondAct
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
8. TheGrinch
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million
9. Vice
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $14.8 million (Tuesday to Sunday)
10. RalphBreakstheInternet
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
BoxOfficeResults (December21–23)
The pre-Christmas frame saw a slew of new debuts and they nearly all came in with less than I anticipated. It’s worth noting that most of these holidays numbers are not yet final and I’ll fill in those verified grosses once they occur.
As expected, Aquaman logged the #1 spot with $68 million, under my $77.3 million. I expect the DC effort to dip in the mid 20s this coming weekend. When factoring in early preview numbers, it’s made $72.7 million thus far.
Disney’s MaryPoppinsReturns opened in second with less with anticipated returns grossing $23.5 million over the weekend and $32.3 million since its Wednesday beginning. That’s quite a bit under my respective projections of $34.8 million and $52.2 million. The well-reviewed sequel will hope for leggy earnings as the weeks roll along.
Bumblebee took third with $21.6 million, premiering under my $26.2 million prediction. The Transformers prequel actually had the best critical reaction of the newcomers and also has a shot of playing well in the coming weeks.
Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse fell to fourth in its sophomore outing with $16.6 million (I was higher at $20.1 million). The acclaimed animated hero tale is up to $64 million.
Clint Eastwood’s TheMule rounded out the top five at $9.5 million (I said $10.2 million) for $35 million at press time.
Jennifer Lopez’s romantic comedy SecondAct debuted in seventh place with $6.4 million. I was right there at $6.5 million.
Finally, the poorly reviewed Steve Carell drama WelcometoMarwen was a massive flop in ninth place with $2.3 million, not even matching my $3.8 million take. This is quite the costly bomb for its studio.
Blogger’s Note (12/18/18): Some updates as Aquaman estimate have risen and MaryPoppinsReturns has dwindled a bit.
Hollywood is hoping that Yuletide cheer is spread among a host of newcomers opening this weekend. We have superhero fish tale Aquaman, Disney sequel Mary Poppins Returns arriving over a half century following its classic predecessor, Transformers franchise prequel Bumblebee, Jennifer Lopez rom com Second Act, and the Robert Zemeckis drama Welcome to Marwen starring Steve Carell. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on all of them here:
Expectations for Aquaman have floated upwards in recent days with decent reviews and terrific numbers overseas. It seems destined to rule the charts with a mid 70s performance and the possibility of rising even higher.
Mary Poppins Returns gets an early start on Wednesday and the runner-up spot appears to be a given. It’s also benefiting from mostly strong critical reaction and some Oscar chatter.
Speaking of critics, we were all taken aback when Bumblebee achieved its own positive buzz with a current 98% rating on Rotten Tomatoes (that’s better than the last four movies in the series… combined). Having the best reviews of a Transformers pic should certainly help , but competition is seriously steep and the franchise has been on the downside. I’ve got it pegged for mid 20s, but don’t be surprised if it over performs.
With Second Act estimated at $6.5 million and Welcome to Marwen (which seems DOA) at $3.8 million, that would put both of them outside the top 5. Last weekend’s top two earners Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and The Mule should fill out the rest of high-five.
And with that, here’s those merry projections:
1. Aquman
Predicted Gross: $77.3 million
2. Mary Poppins Returns
Predicted Gross: $34.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $52.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
The Spider-Man character, through seven films this century, has never failed to open at #1. The streak held as the acclaimed Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse took in $35.3 million, not quite reaching my $43.4 million forecast. With an A+ Cinemascore grade, this should play well throughout the holiday season. I do expect a drop of just over 40% coming up considering the level of competition, but that should subside the following weekend.
Clint Eastwood’s The Mule got off to a solid start in second as a prime option for older moviegoers. The thriller took in $17.5 million and I was as close as can be with $17.6 million. Like Spidey, it may dip about 40% and then level off well in coming weekends.
The Grinch was third with $11.7 million (I said $10.8 million) to bring its total to a pleasing $239 million.
Ralph Breaks the Internet dropped to fourth after three weeks at #1 with $9.2 million, in line with my $9.7 million estimate. The Disney sequel has taken in $154 million.
Mortal Engines staked its claim for biggest flop of the year as the Peter Jackson penned sci-fi adventure stalled in fifth place with just $7.5 million. I was higher at $12.4 million. That doesn’t bode well when its reported budget was $100 million.
Finally, the PG-13 Once Upon a Deadpool failed to attract many eyeballs in 11th place with $2.6 million – under my $4.2 million prediction. The good news? The very R-rated sequel that preceded it this summer was already at about $315 million domestic.
Jennifer Lopez is back in theaters next weekend and in romantic comedy territory with SecondAct. It casts the star as an unsuccessful worker granted the chance to enter the corporate world. Peter Segal, who’s been behind comedies such as AngerManagement, 50FirstDates, TheLongestYard, GetSmart, and GrudgeMatch, directs. Costars include Vanessa Hudgens, Leah Remini, and Milo Ventimiglia. Reviews are mixed with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 57%.
Nearly four years has passed since J-Lo headlined a feature with the thriller TheBoyNextDoor, which debuted to nearly $15 million. It’s been 2010 since we saw her in a rom com with TheBack–UpPlan and it premiered to just over $12 million.
SecondAct faces plenty of holiday competition and I suspect its starting numbers won’t match the aforementioned pictures. I’ll say mid to high single digits is the result.
SecondAct opening weekend prediction: $6.5 million
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