Tag: Sebastian Stan

Oscar Watch: I, Tonya

Blogger’s Note Update (09/11/17): Neon has picked up the distribution rights for I, Tonya. Expect it to be released by year’s end for an Oscar push.

One picture skated into the Toronto Film Festival over the weekend with relatively small expectations. Yet Craig Gillespie’s I, Tonya has turned into a major critical and audience favorite. Whispers of Oscar possibilities are getting considerably louder.

The title character is Tonya Harding, the infamous Olympic figure skater accused of masterminding an attack on rival Nancy Kerrigan in 1994. Margot Robbie is Harding and her performance is drawing many raves. Allison Janney portrays Tonya’s mom and she’s getting equal, if not more, attention.

Robbie has yet to be nominated for an Oscar in her short but fruitful career thus far. Prognosticators are also keeping an eye on her supporting turn in this fall’s Goodbye Christopher Robin. The packed nature of Best Actress has been discussed several times over the last few days on this blog. Even with fierce competition, early notices seem to indicate that Robbie could be a factor.

The Supporting Actress race looks less crowded as of now. Janney, a seven-time Emmy winner, would also be a newcomer for Academy attention. Her inclusion in that category is looking like a major possibility.

One potential hiccup: I, Tonya doesn’t have a distributor at press time and it’s not 100% certain it’s released before the end of the year. However, based on the sizzling buzz emanating from our neighbor to the north, look for that to happen rapidly.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Logan Lucky Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (08/17): I am revising my Logan Lucky prediction down to $10.5 million on the eve of its debut.

The eclectic Steven Soderbergh is back in theaters with heist comedy Logan Lucky, debuting next weekend. It marks the director’s first theatrical release in four and a half years since Side Effects and first picture altogether since 2013’s Behind the Candelabra which premiered on HBO.

Lucky is headlined by many familiar faces, including Channing Tatum, Adam Driver, Daniel Craig (getting raves for the role), Seth MacFarlane, Riley Keough, Katie Holmes, Hilary Swank, Katherine Waterston, Dwight Yoakam, and Sebastian Stan. Reviews have been quite pleasing and it stands at 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes, being frequently compared to the Ocean‘s trilogy that Soderbergh made.

Even with the solid reviews and a NASCAR tie-in (the film’s heist takes place at a race), there could be some issues with this completely breaking out. There is direct competition in the form of The Hitman’s Bodyguard with Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L. Jackson and it’s more likely to debut a bit higher. The mid August release date is also not one that lends itself well to openings above $20 million.

I’ll predict Lucky‘s number falls in the low to possibly mid teens, as it will hope to leg out well in future weekends (and may well do so).

Logan Lucky opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million

For my The Hitman’s Bodyguard prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/09/the-hitmans-bodyguard-box-office-prediction/

Captain America: Civil War Movie Review

The Marvel Cinematic Universe continues to expand in often thrilling and impressive ways in Captain America: Civil War, which is by all intents and purposes a third Avengers pic where Hulk and Thor are apparently on a well-deserved vacation. It walks the tightrope of introducing new characters and finding new dynamics for the old ones without seeming gimmicky or overloading the audience with all its activity. To that end, director Joel and Anthony Russo are to be commended for mostly succeeding in this latest effort where our heroes are often unmasked and sometimes emasculated.

Civil War presents a chasm in the MCU that centers on Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan) aka The Winter Solider from this trilogy’s slightly better second movie. His history with Captain America (Chris Evans) garners understandable sympathy from our title character. That isn’t the case with Tony Stark/Iron Man (Robert Downey Jr.) when it appears Bucky may be responsible for an attack on the United Nations.

There’s also the question of whether The Avengers actions across the globe are worth the collateral damage that sometimes comes with it. The U.S. government proposes to put some serious checks on their powers. Tony agrees. Cap does not. And the rest of the crew (minus Hulk/Thor sipping Mai tai’s somewhere) must choose which side to join. This include Scarlett Johansson’s Black Widow, Jeremy Renner’s Hawkeye (who comes out retirement from his boring home life Age of Ultron subplot), Anthony Mackie’s Falcon, Don Cheadle’s War Machine, and Elizabeth Olsen’s Scarlet Witch. We also have Paul Rudd in the mix less than a year after his debut in Ant-Man, which was the other underwhelming MCU summer 2015 experience (along with Ultron). And then there’s the two newbies introduced who will soon have their own stand-alone features: Chadwick Boseman’s Black Panther and Tom Holland’s Spider-Man. Spidey is good for some solid one-liners and I enjoyed Holland’s take on Peter Parker. This budding franchise should hopefully eclipse what we saw the last time around with Andrew Garfield and company. That said, I actually found Black Panther’s plot line to be a bit more interesting here and I equally anticipate that solo pic.

Civil War also continues the tradition of rather forgettable central villains, with the exception of Tom Hiddleston’s Loki. Here it’s Daniel Bruhl as Zemo, whose motives are murky for most of the running time and who stands as just another baddie in a world where the heroes are the focal point. This entry isn’t really about a main villain, however. Rather it’s about deciding if you’re on Team Cap or Team Iron Man and the screenplay is smartly written enough that the answer isn’t automatic.

The MCU continues to build on itself and this one does so in the most entertaining way since Winter Soldier. By the time we get to the final Avengers pictures, Hulk and Thor will return. Guardians of Galaxies will be in the mix. And with the Mouse Factory behind this with their extensive array of characters, who knows who else we shall see? Will Rey and Finn cross star systems to appear? Which team will Mowgli align with? Will Kermit and Miss Piggy agree to follow Cap or Tony or split? As long as it’s satisfying like Civil War, I’m still curious to find out.

*** (out of four)

Captain America: Civil War Box Office Prediction

Summer 2016 kicks off in grand Disney/Marvel fashion when Captain America: Civil War debuts next Friday. It is the first weekend of May’s only wide release, as no other studio would dare try counter programming against this surefire juggernaut. This is the third entry in the Captain America franchise, but it is essentially a third Avengers feature as Robert Downey Jr.’s Iron Man, Paul Rudd’s Ant-Man, Jeremy Renner’s Hawkeye, Scarlett Johansson’s Black Widow, Don Cheadle’s War Machine, Anthony Mackie’s Falcon, Elizabeth Olsen’s Scarlet Witch, and the debuts of Chadwick Boseman’s Black Panther and Tom Holland’s Spider-Man all join Chris Evans’ Cap for this extravaganza. Sebastian Shaw, William Hurt, and Daniel Bruhl also appear. Essentially, only Thor and Hulk are missing here.

The Marvel Cinematic Universe has been a multi-billion dollar bonanza for Disney and Marvel Studios. This 13th picture in the MCU has been greeted with terrific buzz and trailers and its critical response stands at 98% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some critics have gone as far to call it the best MCU movie thus far and this has led to expectations for its opening being understandably sky-high.

How high are we talking? Civil War seems primed to have at least the fifth largest domestic debut of all time. To do so, it would need to top Iron Man 3 and its $174 million opening and $175M seems to be on the lower end of expectations. The current #4 record belongs to summer 2015’s first flick, Avengers: Age of Ultron, which made $191 million. #3 is the original Avengers at $207 million with last summer’s Jurassic World second at $208 million.

The only record I don’t see this competing for is the big daddy – Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which earned $247 million in December. I believe Civil War, with buzz hotter than Ultron, will manage have a larger start and I really wouldn’t be surprised if it does indeed top $200 million. I’m going to peg it at just below what 2012’s Avengers accomplished to make it the second largest MCU debut and fourth highest all-time opening.

Captain America: Civil War opening weekend prediction: $205.6 million

 

Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction

The Marvel Studios gravy train keeps on rolling this Friday with Captain America: The Winter Soldier, the sequel to the 2011 original and most importantly – the continuation of The Avengers saga that broke box office records in 2012. Chris Evans returns as the title character alongside Scarlett Johannson as Black Widow and Samuel L. Jackson as Nick Fury with Anthony Mackie, Sebastian Shaw, and Robert Redford (!) joining the regulars.

Buzz on The Winter Soldier is red hot and it stands at a terrific 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. Marvel films have opened at significant bumps following The Avengers and the evidence is clear. The pre-Avengers sequel Iron Man 2 opened to $128 million while the post-Avengers entry Iron Man 3 premiered to $174 million. The pre-Avengers original Thor debuted to $65 million while its post-Avengers follow-up Thor: The Dark World came in at $85 million. Like the first Thor, the original Captain America opened at $65 million.

So it stands to reason that the sequel would make the $85 million that the second Thor achieved, right? Well… yeah, pretty much! An opening in that range seems like a safe bet. It could overachieve and approach $100 million, but I’m going by the numbers we have on file and predicting it’ll just outpace the Thor sequel.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier opening weekend prediction: $86.3 million